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Article
Publication date: 31 January 2020

Sungchan Kim

Even though fiscal autonomy plays a role as one of the prerequisite conditions for fiscal decentralization, there has been little research into why fiscal autonomy is important or…

Abstract

Purpose

Even though fiscal autonomy plays a role as one of the prerequisite conditions for fiscal decentralization, there has been little research into why fiscal autonomy is important or how it works for subnational governments. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of fiscal autonomy by using a panel dataset of US state governments from 2001 to 2013.

Design/methodology/approach

According to the results of general method of moments, the author find that fiscal autonomy leads to reducing volatility in total expenditures.

Findings

It indicates that fiscal autonomy is necessary for state governments performing one of the three Musgravian role of government (e.g. stabilization). However, when we look at the more detailed relationship between fiscal autonomy and volatility by applying expenditures from major categories such as capital outlay, general expenditure and public welfare, this study finds no statistically significant results. Interestingly, balanced budget requirement and tax and expenditure limitation indicate different effects on expenditure volatility, even though they belong to the same institutional factors.

Originality/value

This paper is meaningful because it can support the importance of fiscal autonomy on fiscal performance.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 12 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2015

Soojin Kim and Qiushi Wang

This article aims to examine empirically the relationship between budget periodicity and expenditure volatility in state governments. Using a large panel dataset for fifty states…

Abstract

This article aims to examine empirically the relationship between budget periodicity and expenditure volatility in state governments. Using a large panel dataset for fifty states over the years 1960-2012, after controlling for institutional, economic, and political factors, we find general expenditure of biennial states has been significantly less volatile than that of annual states. The finding suggests that a choice between annual and biennial budget period can emerge as a feasible and effective countercyclical strategy to overcome fiscal difficulties in the short run and promote fiscal stability in the long run.

Details

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, vol. 27 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1096-3367

Article
Publication date: 11 November 2021

Abdul Rashid and Mohammad Basit

This paper aims to explore the empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility (ERV) in selected Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the empirical determinants of exchange-rate volatility (ERV) in selected Asian economies, namely, Bangladesh, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. Specifically, it examines how the volatility of foreign reserves, government spending, industrial production, gold prices and terms of trade affect monthly ERV during the examined period.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors carry out the empirical analysis by using monthly data for the period January 1997–March 2019. First, the volatility of the underlying variables is measured based on the conditional variances obtained by estimating the univariate (generalized) autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] model for each variable during the study period. Next, the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH)-Lagrange multiplier test is applied to ensure that there are no remaining ARCH effects in the residuals. Finally, the multivariate autoregressive-moving average-GARCH (1, 1) models are estimated to examine whether and how the volatility of the underlying variables affects ERV.

Findings

The results reveal that the current period volatility of exchange rates is significantly affected by ERV in the previous period in all selected countries. The results also indicate that the volatilities of the underlying macroeconomic variables are quite differently related to ERV in examined Asian countries. Foreign-reserve volatility (VFXRES) has negative and significant impacts on ERV in Bangladesh, China and Malaysia. Government-spending volatility is negatively related to ERV in India, whereas it is positively related to ERV in all other examined countries. The results also suggest that although terms-of-trade volatility reduces ERV in both Bangladesh and Pakistan, it amplifies ERV in the remaining examined countries. However, gold-price volatility (VGOLDP) significantly, positively contributes to ERV in Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia. On the contrary, the higher volatility in industrial production (VIPI) results in lower ERV in Indonesia and Pakistan, whereas it increases ERV in China, India and Malaysia.

Practical implications

The findings have several important policy implications. First, the findings suggest that both Bangladesh and Malaysia should keep an adequate level of foreign reserves to stabilize their foreign exchange rates. Second, as government-spending volatility has a vital role in determining ERV, it is necessary to bring sustainability and continuity in government expenditures. Bangladesh and Pakistan can stabilize their foreign exchange rates by making exports more competitive, viable and accessible.

Originality/value

This paper significantly contributes to the existing literature by exploring how the behavior of unexpected variations in the factors determining exchange rates affects ERV in selected Asia countries. Most of the published studies have examined the determinants of exchange rates by considering the macroeconomic variables at their levels. Departing from the existing studies, this paper significantly relates the volatility (second moment) of exchange rate determinants to the behavior of ERV. Further, this paper provides firsthand empirical evidence on this issue for the selected Asian economies.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 August 2021

Sèna Kimm Gnangnon

This paper aims to explore the effect of non-resource tax revenue instability on non-resource tax revenue in developed and developing countries.

2491

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the effect of non-resource tax revenue instability on non-resource tax revenue in developed and developing countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 146 countries over the period 1981–2016, as well as the two-step system generalized methods of moment approach.

Findings

The empirical analysis has suggested that non-resource tax revenue instability influences negatively non-resource tax revenue share of gross domestic product. The magnitude of this negative effect is higher in less developed countries than in relatively advanced countries. This negative effect materializes through public expenditure instability: non-resource tax revenue instability exerts a higher effect on non-resource tax revenue share as the degree of public expenditure instability increases. Finally, non-resource tax revenue instability exerts a higher negative effect on non-resource tax revenue share as economic growth volatility rises, inflation volatility increases and terms of trade instability increases.

Research limitations/implications

The main policy implication of this analysis is that policies that help ensure the stability of non-resource tax revenue also contribute to improving countries’ non-resource tax revenue share. For example, governments’ measures that help cope with or prevent the severe adverse effects of shocks on economies (shocks that could translate into higher tax revenue instability) would ultimately help enhance countries’ tax revenue performance.

Practical implications

The severity of the current COVID-19 pandemic shock (which is a supply and demand shock) and the macroeconomic uncertainty that it has generated – inter alia, in terms of economic growth instability, terms of trade instability, inflation volatility and public expenditure instability – are likely to result in severe tax revenue losses. Governments in both developed and developing countries would surely learn from the management of this crisis so as to prepare for possible future economic, financial and health crises with a view to dampening their adverse macroeconomic effects, including here their negative tax revenue effects.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this topic is being addressed in the empirical literature for the first time.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 30 no. 88
Type: Research Article
ISSN:

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 16 February 2006

Dalia Grigonytė

Theory suggests that as long as a country runs a balanced budget regime, there is no linkage between fiscal variables and the interest rates. In the case of fiscal expansion that…

Abstract

Theory suggests that as long as a country runs a balanced budget regime, there is no linkage between fiscal variables and the interest rates. In the case of fiscal expansion that is not sufficiently covered by government revenues, however, the government has two options to finance its deficit: printing money or additional borrowing. Both options lead to an increase in the risk premia on government bonds. One strand of literature focuses on a currency crisis that emerges as a necessary outcome in light of contradictions between fixed exchange rate, and fiscal and financial fundamentals. If government bonds are denominated in domestic currency, the government can reduce their real value by higher inflation or by devaluation of the national currency. In order to bear this risk foreign investors require a currency risk premium. Governments can eliminate the risk of currency devaluation by issuing bonds denominated in foreign currencies, but the default risk remains and it depends on public finances. Another strand of the literature looks at the relation between fiscal variables and government bond yields in the framework of portfolio balance model.

Details

Emerging European Financial Markets: Independence and Integration Post-Enlargement
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-264-1

Abstract

Details

Modelling the Riskiness in Country Risk Ratings
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44451-837-8

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 August 2021

Rexford Abaidoo and Elvis Kwame Agyapong

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines how specific micro-level macroeconomic indicators influence corporate performance volatility among US corporate bodies in the short run.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs error correction autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model (ECM) to examine how micro-level variables influence volatility associated with corporate performance in the short run.

Findings

This paper finds that disaggregated or micro-level variables examined, tend to exhibit features that are not readily apparent from the aggregate variable from which such variables are derived. For instance, reported empirical estimate suggests that, growth in expenditures on services and nondurable goods tend to lower volatility associated with corporate performance, whereas government expenditures and expenditures on durable goods rather worsens volatility associated with corporate performance, all things being equal. Additionally, presented empirical estimates further provide evidence suggesting that macroeconomic uncertainty and inflation uncertainty significantly moderate or influence the extent to which disaggregated variables impact corporate performance volatility.

Originality/value

Compared to related studies in the reviewed literature, this study rather examines volatility associated with corporate performance instead of the corporate performance indicator itself. Additionally, this paper also examines how disaggregated variable instead of aggregate variables impact such volatility. Finally, the moderating role of key macroeconomic conditions in such a relationship is also examined.

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2013

Whitney B. Afonso

Local governments are expanding their revenue portfolios and becoming less dependent on property taxes. It should not be assumed, however, that this diversification is increasing…

Abstract

Local governments are expanding their revenue portfolios and becoming less dependent on property taxes. It should not be assumed, however, that this diversification is increasing the stability of local governmentsʼ own source revenue, as previous research suggests. It is thus important for local government officials to know how this process will affect the stability of their own source revenue, as they are almost certainly diversifying away from a stable tax, the property tax (Groves and Kahn, 1952; McCubbins and Moule, 2010), and moving toward a more volatile tax, such as the sales tax. Using county-level data in thirty-five states, I examine the effect of local option sales taxes (LOSTs) on the volatility of own source revenue and find that greater use of LOSTs increases revenue volatility.

Details

Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1096-3367

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2012

Abdulnasser Hatemi‐J and Manuchehr Irandoust

In the literature on the effects of economic globalization, the compensation hypothesis suggests that there is a positive link between government size and external risk as…

796

Abstract

Purpose

In the literature on the effects of economic globalization, the compensation hypothesis suggests that there is a positive link between government size and external risk as governments perform a risk mitigating role to insure against productivity shocks through transfers. In contrast, the conventional wisdom hypothesis states that more openness will lower tax rates and lead to smaller government due to increased international factor mobility which undermines the ability of governments to tax. The purpose of this paper is to test the literature and present the authors' conclusions.

Design/methodology/approach

Using time series data for the USA, Canada, Japan and Australia over the period 1960‐2008, the authors test the asymmetric relationship between government size and terms‐of‐trade volatility by applying multivariate hidden cointegration analysis.

Findings

The findings show that high terms of trade volatility are positively related to government spending in the all sample countries. The effect is stronger in the case of positive movements than negative ones.

Practical implications

The policy implication is that the size of the public sector might play a risk‐reducing role in economies with significant amounts of external risk. In particular, public expenditure is considered to be an important fiscal policy instrument when terms of trade volatility are high.

Originality/value

The paper describes the first study of its kind.

Book part
Publication date: 30 May 2017

André C. B. de Aquino and Ricardo Lopes Cardoso

This chapter analyses the financial resilience pattern presented by four Brazilian municipalities at the beginning of a serious revenue downturn, which was initiated at the…

Abstract

This chapter analyses the financial resilience pattern presented by four Brazilian municipalities at the beginning of a serious revenue downturn, which was initiated at the central government as a combination of economic and political crises. The crisis occurred during an on-going public financial management reform and attempts to imbricate IPSAS-oriented accrual-accounting policies in a dominant cash-based budgeting culture. Thus, contrasting those patterns with other democracies depicted in this book, we aim to contribute to the comparative literature on financial resilience under austerity periods. We interviewed secretaries of finance, department directors and accountants of each city hall and businessmen from the four municipalities. Cases were selected among 100,000-350,000 inhabitants’ municipalities from one of the three most industrialised brazilian states, varying the cases according to their mean and volatility budgetary surplus over the 10 years before the beginning of the analysed crises. All cases presented no anticipatory capacity or long-term strategic planning. Their usual responses are short-term oriented, such as supplier payments postponement, increasing tax collection or cutting expenditures, rather than based on their weak transformative capacities. Despite the fatalistic and very ineffective reactive behaviours observed in two cases, a proactive mayor, supported by consulting firms, enhanced the responses effectiveness of the two remaining cases. Hence, mayor leadership might be a fruitful feature to be investigated by future studies.

Details

Governmental Financial Resilience
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-262-6

Keywords

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