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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 December 2019

Shiyi Chen and Wang Li

With China’s economic growth slowing down and the growth rate of fiscal revenue decreasing, the pressure on local government debts is further increasing. Under this background, it…

3204

Abstract

Purpose

With China’s economic growth slowing down and the growth rate of fiscal revenue decreasing, the pressure on local government debts is further increasing. Under this background, it is of great significance to clarify the relation between local government debts and China’s economic growth in order to give full play to the positive role of local debts in stabling growth. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

Therefore, this paper explores the impact of Chinese local government debt on economic growth from theoretical and empirical aspects, respectively, and compares the regional differences between different debts and economic growth dynamics.

Findings

In the theoretical model part, this paper constructs a three-sector dynamic game model, under the two circumstances of whether local government is subject to debt constraints, and examines the relation between local government debt and economic growth and other variables through numerical simulation. Research shows that when the government is not constrained by debt, there is an inverted “U” relation between government debt and economic growth. When the government is constrained by debt, the economic growth rate gradually decreases as the government debt increases.

Originality/value

In the theoretical analysis part, this paper tries to estimate the amount of local debts under different calibers and examines the impact of different types of local government debts on China’s economic growth and their regional differences. The results show that excessive accumulation of government hidden debts in the eastern region is not conducive to economic growth, while explicit debts in the central and western regions significantly contribute to local economic growth. The results of empirical analysis are basically consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model.

Details

China Political Economy, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-1652

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 July 2019

Duy-Tung Bui

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the problem of fiscal sustainability for a panel of developing Asian economies.

2328

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the problem of fiscal sustainability for a panel of developing Asian economies.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, cross-section dependence and heterogeneity are controlled while estimating the fiscal reaction function, which shows how governments react to the accumulation of public debt. The study employs the common correlated effects mean group estimator in Pesaran (2006) for a panel of 22 developing Asian economies for the period 1999‒2017.

Findings

It is found that the fiscal sustainability issue in the region is not so benign as in previous studies. Overall, fiscal policy is unsustainable, even for the nonlinear fiscal rule. Country-specific long-run coefficients are also examined in the study.

Research limitations/implications

The findings show that many developing economies in the region could not satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint, which raises concerns about debt sustainability in the area, especially for the post-crisis period.

Originality/value

This study investigates whether governments can maintain the sustainability of public finances in the long-run, if the ratios of public debt over GDP and primary deficit over GDP continue their recent problematic trends. Another novelty is controlling for heterogeneous effects among the countries in the region to give a more precise picture of debt sustainability. The empirical evidence also supports that insolvency risk can occur at low levels of public debt.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 27 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 June 2021

Sam Kris Hilton

Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent…

12951

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO.

Findings

The results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run.

Practical implications

The findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP.

Originality/value

This paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Thembeka Sibahle Ngcobo, Lindokuhle Talent Zungu and Nomusa Yolanda Nkomo

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to test the dynamic impact of public debt and economic growth on newly democratized African countries (South Africa and Namibia) and compare the findings with those of newly democratized European countries (Germany and Ukraine) during the period 1990–2022.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology involves three stages: identifying the appropriate transition variable, assessing the linearity between public debt and economic growth and selecting the order m of the transition function. The linearity test helps identify the nature of relationships between public debt and economic growth. The wild cluster bootstrap-Lagrange Multiplier test is used to evaluate the model’s appropriateness. All these tests would be executed using the Lagrange Multiplier type of test.

Findings

The results signify the policy switch, as the authors find that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is characterized by two transitions that symbolize that the current stage of the relationship is beyond the U-shape; however, an S-shape. The results show that for newly democratized African countries, the threshold during the first waves was 50% of GDP, represented by a U-shape, which then transits to an inverted U-shape with a threshold of 65% of GDP. Then, for the European case, it was 60% of GDP, which is now 72% of GDP.

Originality/value

The findings suggest that an escalating level of public debt has a negative impact on economic growth; therefore, it is important to implement fiscal discipline, prioritize government spending and reduce reliance on debt financing. This can be achieved by focusing on revenue generation, implementing effective taxation policies, reducing wasteful expenditures and promoting investment and productivity-enhancing measures.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Sherine Al-shawarby and Mai El Mossallamy

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period…

6528

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to estimate a New Keynesian small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for Egypt using Bayesian techniques and data for the period FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4 to assess monetary and fiscal policy interactions and their impact on economic stabilization. Outcomes of monetary and fiscal authority commitment to policy instruments, interest rate, government spending and taxes, are evaluated using Taylor-type and optimal simple rules.

Design/methodology/approach

The study extends the stylized micro-founded small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model, proposed by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), by explicitly introducing fiscal policy behavior into the model (Fragetta and Kirsanova, 2010 and Çebi, 2011). The model is calibrated using quarterly data for Egypt on key macroeconomic variables during FY2004/2005:Q1-FY2015/2016:Q4; and Bayesian methods are used in estimation.

Findings

The results show that monetary and fiscal policy instruments in Egypt contribute to economic stability through their effects on inflation, output and debt stock. The monetary policy Taylor rule estimates reveal that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) attaches significant importance to anti-inflationary policy and (to a lesser extent) to output targeting but responds weakly to nominal exchange rate variations. CBE decisions are significantly influenced by interest rate smoothing. Egyptian fiscal policy has an important role in output and government debt stabilization. Additionally, the fiscal authority chooses pro-cyclical government spending and counter-cyclical tax policies for output stabilization. Again, past values of the fiscal instruments are influential in the evolution of the future fiscal policy-making process.

Originality/value

A few studies have examined the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Egypt within a unified framework. The presented paper integrates the monetary and fiscal policy analysis within a unified dynamic general equilibrium open economy rational expectations framework. Without such a framework, it would not be easy to jointly analyze monetary and fiscal transmission mechanisms for output, inflation and debt. Also, it would be neither possible to contrast the outcome of monetary and fiscal authorities commitment to a simple Taylor instrument rule vis-à-vis optimal policy outcomes nor to assess the behavior of monetary and fiscal agents in macroeconomic stability in context of an active/passive policy decisions framework.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2631-3561

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 September 2021

Ebenezer Gbenga Olamide and Andrew Maredza

This study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the…

3200

Abstract

Purpose

This study is a pre-COVID-19 exposition of the existing situation about external debt-GDP relationship, incorporating corruption into the hypothesis, making South Africa the object of the study. The aim is to examine the causal relationship between corruption, economic growth and external debt, and in the end proffer solutions to the problems arising therefrom.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employed ARDL technique on time series data running from 1990 to 2019 with real gross domestic product as the dependent variable and external debt, external debt servicing, corruption, inflation and capital formation as regressors. Necessary tests that include unit root, cointegration, CUSUM and CUSUMSq, normality, serial correlation and heteroscedasticity were performed on the model.

Findings

The study shows that corruption, inflation and external debt servicing exert negative influences on economic growth while the effect of investment on growth was positive. External debt's effect in the short run was positive while its long-run effect on growth was negative. Among other things, the need to improve and strengthen public institutions in addition to targeting tax evaders and avoiders for increased government revenue were emphasized.

Originality/value

The study incorporates corruption into the country specific debt-GDP debate as against earlier studies that excluded corruption in their time series analysis or that were cross-country based. The authors also exposit the existing knowledge of the debt-GDP hypothesis before the outbreak of COVID 19 pandemic. This is expected to serve as a precursor to subsequent studies on the rising debt of South Africa during and after the pandemic.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 March 2022

Vicente Esteve and María A. Prats

This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of the Spanish public debt–gross domestic product ratio during the period 1850–2020.

1503

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of the Spanish public debt–gross domestic product ratio during the period 1850–2020.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a recent procedure to test for recurrent explosive behavior (Phillips et al., 2011; Phillips et al., 2015a, 2015b) to identify episodes of explosive public debt dynamics and also the episodes of fiscal adjustments over this long period.

Findings

The identified episodes of explosive behavior of public debt coincided with fiscal stress events, whereas fiscal adjustments and changes in economic policies stabilized public finances after periods of explosive dynamics of public debt.

Originality/value

The longer than usual span of the data should allow the authors to obtain some more robust results than in most of previous analyses of long-run sustainability.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 31 no. 91
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-7627

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 July 2019

Seung-Whan Choi and Shali Luo

The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints on foreign debt.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints on foreign debt.

Design/methodology/approach

A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 68 developing countries during the period from 1981 to 1999 was performed.

Findings

Foreign borrowing is most likely to increase at both low and high levels of legislative constraints, while it is most likely to decrease at moderate levels.

Originality/value

The paper is a first-cut empirical analysis of a curvilinear relationship between legislative constraints and foreign debt.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 26 September 2022

Richard C. Osadume and Israel O. Imide

The purpose of this study is to examine whether external debt procurements during the military and civilian regimes had a correlation with infrastructural developments using…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine whether external debt procurements during the military and civilian regimes had a correlation with infrastructural developments using available data from Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample period covering 41 years, was divided into two periods representing the military and civilian regimes with respective secondary data secured from the World Bank Group online database. The study employed robust least square regression, autoregressive distributed lag and the error correction term to test the variables at the 0.05 significance level.

Findings

The results affirmed that external debts shows positive and significant relationship with infrastructural developments proxy for capital investments during the short-run for both military and civilian regimes in Nigeria, while the outcome was only significant and negatively signed for the civilian regime in the long-run with 52.28% speed of convergence to long-run. This study concludes that external debt showed significant correlation with infrastructural development during the civilian regime better than the military regime in Nigeria and this conclusion applies globally.

Research limitations/implications

Research period covered only 41 years, between 1979 and 2020 and focused on sub-Saharan African country – Nigeria.

Practical implications

The research encourages civilian administration in governments and urged them to carefully appraise and contract external debts to finance self-liquidating priority projects.

Social implications

The national economy and the masses suffer during military regime but are better off during civilian regime.

Originality/value

Apart from adding to current literature, the work focused on a coverage period that comprehensively compares two different regimes of government – military and civilian administrations.

Details

Journal of Money and Business, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-2596

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 November 2019

Asabea Shirley Ahwireng-Obeng and Frederick Ahwireng-Obeng

Despite being a viable source of funds, African sovereign bond markets are relatively underexplored. The empirical literature fails to consider the impact of exclusively…

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Abstract

Purpose

Despite being a viable source of funds, African sovereign bond markets are relatively underexplored. The empirical literature fails to consider the impact of exclusively macroeconomic factors and the volatile contexts in which African markets operate. The purpose of this paper is to fill the vacuum by proposing a context-sensitive theoretical framework. The study targets, specifically, macroeconomic factors and assesses the extent to which they affect bond market development.

Design/methodology/approach

Using panel data on sovereign bond markets from 26 African economies, the study extends previous methodologies used in similar studies by accounting for downside risk in a generalized method of moments (GMM) framework and employing tighter robustness measures.

Findings

This study finds that inflation, domestic debt, external debt, GDP at PPP, fiscal balance and exports are important macroeconomic drivers of sovereign bond market development in African emerging economies.

Research limitations/implications

While GMM estimation is beneficial in the presence of endogeneity between the dependent variables that are instrumented with lagged independent variables, it guarantees consistency but, not unbiased estimations.

Practical implications

Market-oriented government funding with well-defined debt management strategies must be implemented to support the development of sovereign bond markets. External debt must be set at a sustainable level, and government should be dedicated to the confirmation of this. Furthermore, inflation rates must be kept low and stable.

Social implications

If policymakers are to take this study seriously, bond markets may begin to be viable sources of funds for African emerging economies.

Originality/value

This study introduces a methodology for measuring bond market development that considers the systemic volatility in emerging markets and proposes a theoretical framework for African emerging economies. In addition, the authors identify a new macroeconomic determinant of bond market development in the region.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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