Search results
1 – 10 of 997The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators…
Abstract
Purpose
The unsustainable public debt of most African economies adversely affects their economic growth and stability. This study aims to explore the influence of cross-country indicators of governance from African countries on public debt accumulation.
Design/methodology/approach
The study deployed a quantitative research design technique. Secondary data was used in this study. The frequency of the data is annual, and it is available from 1996 to 2022 for 48 countries in Africa. The study deployed the system generalized method of moments for the estimation.
Findings
The study finds that countries with high regulatory quality standards, control corruption and ensure effective governance accumulate less government debt while countries that abide by the rule of law instead accumulate more government debt. The study also finds that economic growth and government revenue reduce government gross debt while government expenditure and investments increase public debt.
Research limitations/implications
Due to data unavailability, other factors which are likely to influence government debt accumulation were not included in the study as control variables. This is the limitation of the study.
Social implications
African governments should strive to maintain high regulatory quality standards through the formulation and implementation of sound policies and regulations that permit and promote private sector development, and ensure quality and accountability of public and civil services. Governments are also urged to control corruption and enact good laws so that the enforcement of these laws will not worsen the risk of becoming debt-distressed.
Originality/value
Recent studies on governance and public debt were focused on the Arabian Gulf countries, countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and a combination of high and low-income countries. This study scrutinizes exclusively the effects of the quality of governance indicators on public debt accumulation, in the context of Africa.
Details
Keywords
Toan Khanh Tran Pham and Quyen Hoang Thuy To Nguyen Le
The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between government spending, public debt and the informal economy. In addition, this paper investigates the moderating role of public debt in government spending and the informal economy nexus.
Design/methodology/approach
By utilizing a data set spanning from 2000 to 2017 of 32 Asian economies, the study has employed the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). The study is also extended to consider the marginal effects of government spending on the informal economy at different degrees of public debt.
Findings
The results indicate that an increase in government spending and public debt leads to an expansion of the informal economy in the region. Interestingly, the positive effect of government spending on the informal economy will increase with a rise in public debt.
Originality/value
This study stresses the role of government spending and public debt on the informal economy in Asian nations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study pioneers to explore the moderating effect of public debt in the public spending-informal economy nexus.
Details
Keywords
Ladislava Issever Grochová and Michal Škára
This chapter examines the impact of sectoral indebtedness on GDP in Czechia, initially a low-indebted small open economy in which debt dynamics are becoming a major concern. The…
Abstract
This chapter examines the impact of sectoral indebtedness on GDP in Czechia, initially a low-indebted small open economy in which debt dynamics are becoming a major concern. The impact of household debt, non-financial corporation debt and public debt is analysed with the use of local projections based on instrumental variable estimations. The results show a more pronounced influence of household debt compared to non-financial corporation and government debt. Initially, increasing household debt stimulates short-run economic activity, but in the medium run, it limits household consumption and negatively affects output. This negative impact gradually turns into a positive effect in the long run. Non-financial corporation debt has a negative short- to medium-run impact but can have a small positive effect in the long run due to the prevalence of tradable industries. Public debt initially has a short-run negative impact, but then gradually becomes positive. Overall, the findings have implications for macroeconomic policies and the importance of monitoring financial stability.
Details
Keywords
Siti Nurhidayah Mohd Roslen, Mei-Shan Chua and Rafiatul Adlin Hj Mohd Ruslan
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the asymmetric effects of financial risk on Sukuk market development for a sample of Malaysian countries over the period of 2010–2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study refers to the International Country Risk Guide (ICRG) in determining the financial risk factors to be studied in addition to the Malaysia financial stress index (FSI) to capture changes in financial risk level. The authors use the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to tackle the nonlinear relationships between identified financial risk variables and Sukuk market development.
Findings
The results suggest the existence of a long-run relationship between foreign debt service stability, international liquidity stability (ILS), exchange rate stability (ERS) and financial stress level with the Sukuk market development in Malaysia. Indeed, higher ILS and ERS will boost Sukuk market size, whereas higher foreign debt services and financial stress are negatively related to Sukuk market development. Findings also indicate that the long-run positive and negative impacts of identified financial risk components on Sukuk market development are statistically different. Taking into account the role of the Sukuk market in facilitating Malaysia’s economic growth, the country should aim to keep the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio at a sustainable level.
Research limitations/implications
This study points to three possible directions for future research. The first is the differential impact of financial risk components on Sukuk issuance for different Sukuk structures. As more data becomes available in the future, this area could be further explored by conducting the above analysis for different combinations of Sukuk structures and currency denominations. In addition, future researchers could also consider exploring the variability of financial risk impacts through comparative studies of the leading Sukuk-issuing countries to account for differences in regulatory frameworks and supporting infrastructure.
Practical implications
This study provides valuable practical and policy implications for strengthening the growth of the Sukuk market. While benefiting from the diversification benefits of funding sources to finance private or government projects and developments, Malaysia should remain vigilant to global economic conditions, foreign exchange markets and financial stress levels, as all of these factors may significantly influence investor sentiment and the rate of return offered by Sukuk issuance.
Originality/value
The use of the NARDL approach, which investigates the long-run effects of financial risk factors on Sukuk market development in Malaysia, makes this study a valuable addition to the literature, as there has been little research into the asymmetric effects of those variables on Sukuk market development using samples from emerging Asian markets.
Details
Keywords
John Kwaku Amoh, Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni and Richard Amankwa Fosu
While some countries have used debt to drive economic growth, the asymmetric effect on sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has received little attention in the empirical…
Abstract
Purpose
While some countries have used debt to drive economic growth, the asymmetric effect on sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries has received little attention in the empirical literature. This paper therefore examines the asymmetric effect of external debts on economic growth.
Design/methodology/approach
The panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach was employed in the study for 29 sub-Saharan African countries from 1990 to 2021. The cross-sectional dependence test was used to determine the presence of cross-sectional dependence, while the second-generation panel unit root tests was used to examine the unit-root properties.
Findings
The empirical results show that external debt has an asymmetric effect on economic growth in both the short and long run. In the long run, a positive shock in external debts of 1% triggers an upturn in economic growth by 0.216% while a negative shock triggers 0.354% decline in economic growth. This implies that the negative shock of external debts has a much stronger impact on economic growth than the positive shock. In the short run, a positive shock in external debts by 1% triggers a decline in economic growth by 0.641%, while a negative shock of 1% triggers a fall in economic growth of 0.170%.
Originality/value
The paper used the NARDL model to examine the asymmetric impact of external debt on the economic growth of SSA countries, which has not been extensively studied. It is recommended that governments in the selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa should drive economic growth by promoting domestic revenue mobilization since external debts impede economic growth.
Details
Keywords
The purpose of the study is to investigate the correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector to determine whether there is a crowding-out…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to investigate the correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector to determine whether there is a crowding-out or crowding-in effect of credit supply to government on credit supply to the private sector.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used data from 43 countries during the 1980–2019 period. The study employed the Pearson correlation methodology to analyze the data.
Findings
There is a significant positive correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector. There is also a significant positive relationship between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector, implying a crowding-in effect of government borrowing on private sector borrowing. The positive correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector by banks is stronger and highly significant in the period before the Great Recession, while the positive correlation is weaker and less significant during the Great Recession, and the correlation further weakens after the Great Recession. The regional analyses show that the positive correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector by banks is stronger and highly significant in the African region than in the Asian region and the region of the Americas.
Originality/value
There is no evidence on the correlation between credit supply to government and credit supply to the private sector during the Great Recession.
Details
Keywords
US student debt far outstrips that of most other wealthy countries, with some 40 million US adults owing a total of USD1.75tn in student loans in 2023, almost all of it to the…
Details
DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB284890
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
That followed a primary surplus equivalent to 0.5% of GDP in 2022. The negative result in 2023 was partly caused by exceptional circumstances, notably the early payment of…
Details
DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB285159
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Benny Hutahayan, Mohamad Fadli, Satria Amiputra Amimakmur and Reka Dewantara
This study aims to analyze the causes and implications of legal uncertainty in the issuance of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia and to draw lessons from Vietnam’s…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the causes and implications of legal uncertainty in the issuance of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia and to draw lessons from Vietnam’s approach in providing better legal certainty.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts a normative legal method with a legislative approach and applies a comparative approach. Data sources involve primary and secondary legal materials from both Indonesia and Vietnam.
Findings
The legal uncertainty is caused by a lack of coherence and consistency in legislation. Based on Vietnam’s experience, Indonesia can gain valuable insights related to providing strong legal certainty for parties involved in issuing or investing through conventional municipal bonds.
Research limitations/implications
This study focuses on the comparative legal analysis of conventional municipal bonds in Indonesia with Vietnam.
Practical implications
This research provides recommendations for the refinement of legislation regarding conventional municipal bonds to the government.
Social implications
This study is related to legal certainty as a strategy to attract investment through municipal bonds and to ensure the municipal bond issuance process is transparent and efficient.
Originality/value
This study provides a comparative perspective on the issuance of municipal bonds in Indonesia, with a special focus on Vietnam, emphasizing the urgency of harmonization in legal regulation and the sustainability of legal certainty.
Details
Keywords
Bingsheng Liu, Juankun Li, Dan Wang, Henry Liu, Guangdong Wu and Jingfeng Yuan
This study aims to develop a collaborative governance framework (CGF) to systematically investigate the impeding factors (IFs) in terms of the operational sustainability of PPPs…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to develop a collaborative governance framework (CGF) to systematically investigate the impeding factors (IFs) in terms of the operational sustainability of PPPs. It examines the transmission pattern (i.e. the way in which network members react to each other) of the IFs network.
Design/methodology/approach
Literature review and interview were adopted to identify the IFs. Then, with the data collected from the interview in China, the social network analysis and interpretive structure model were synergised to examine the chain reaction, driving and dependent powers, and hierarchical structure of the identified IFs.
Findings
The results reveal that the cognition, institutional, financial and participation aspects are key barriers confronted by PPP sustainability, and the government plays a leading role in controlling factors causing sustainability-related problems in PPPs. Weak government leadership and institutional environment were identified as the most fundamental reasons triggering a chain of IFs, while project governance and management activities act as bridge nodes that play an intermediary role in the IFs network.
Research limitations/implications
This research contributes to the literature on PPP governance by (1) bridging the literature gap through the development of CGF for explaining the governance of PPP sustainability with a holistic view that considers both macro environment and operational project processes; and (2) identifying the transmission pattern of IFs network which uncovers the underlying dynamics causing the unsustainable operation of PPPs.
Practical implications
This research provides practitioners with a list of key checkpoints for preventing failure escalation, enables decision-makers to prioritise obstacle-mitigation efforts and develop a feasible process to control PPP operation, and offers management countermeasures to remove the key barriers impeding PPP sustainability.
Originality/value
This study is novel for adopting network-oriented techniques to quantify the relative importance of the IFs and examine the transmission pattern of the IFs system. Therefore, it visualises the complex underlying dynamics causing unsustainable PPP operation, identifies root and direct causes of PPP failures, and provides decision-makers with insights into sustaining PPP sustainability from a network-oriented perspective.
Details