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Book part
Publication date: 27 November 2017

Thaddeus Sim and Ronald H. Wright

Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have been used…

Abstract

Historical stock prices have long been used to evaluate a stock’s future returns as well as the risks associated with those returns. Similarly, historical dividends have been used to evaluate the intrinsic value of a stock using, among other methods, a dividend discount model. In this chapter, we propose an alternate use of the dividend discount model to enable an investor to assess the risks associated with a particular stock based on its dividend history. In traditional applications of the dividend discount model for stock valuation, the value of a stock is the net present value of its future cash dividends. We propose an alternative approach in which we calculate the internal rate of return for a stream of future cash dividends assuming the current stock price. We use a bootstrapping approach to generate a stream of future cash dividends, and use a Monte Carlo simulation approach to run multiple trials of the model. The probability distribution of the internal rates of return obtained from the simulation model provides an investor with an expected percentage return and the standard deviation of the return for the stock. This allows an investor to not only compare the expected internal rates of return for a group of stocks but to also evaluate the associated risks. We illustrate this internal rate of return approach using stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Details

Growing Presence of Real Options in Global Financial Markets
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-838-3

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 5 February 2019

Les Coleman

Abstract

Details

New Principles of Equity Investment
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-063-0

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Maurizio d’Amato

This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017).

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market.

Findings

The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase.

Research limitations/implications

Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market.

Practical implications

The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market.

Social implications

The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination.

Originality/value

These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Kevin Chiang, George M. Frankfurter, Arman Kosedag and Bob G. Wood

To study the perception of dividends by the professional investor, for whom mutual fund managers are a proxy. The main line of research in dividends is based on using market data…

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Abstract

Purpose

To study the perception of dividends by the professional investor, for whom mutual fund managers are a proxy. The main line of research in dividends is based on using market data that are fit, ex post, to a cherished hypothesis. It is believed, however, that such data cannot measure motivation which is the underlying force behind generating market data. An understanding of motivation will give us more insight into the dividend paradox (why shareholders love dividends) than just the surface reality one can glean from market data.

Design/methodology/approach

Using a survey instrument, the method of analysis (not methodology) is factor analysis and hierarchical grouping that uncovers three distinct groups of professional investors re their attitude towards dividend. This categorization clearly shows that the dividends are perceived differently by the groups found here. Thus, research in dividends cannot follow a traditional route in which the phenomenon is treated as universal, or something similar to a natural occurrence.

Findings

Three groups from the more traditional: the more growth‐oriented, aggressive; and a middle‐of‐the‐road group are posited. Although there are some uniformly accepted tenets across the groups, nevertheless, the more traditional group attributes far more importance to dividends than the growth‐oriented group. The latter group perceives dividends as something needed to pacify the shareholder. It is also concluded that none of the academic hypotheses contrived to explain dividend behavior can be supported by empirical evidence. The interesting result is, nevertheless, that the ex post group performance is not significantly different between each possible pairing of the three groups.

Research limitations/implications

As all empirical research goes, results cannot be all‐conclusive, because of time and participation in the sample. This fact alone should not grind to a halt all empirical work. This work is part of a segment of three different studies examining the perception of dividends by corporate managers, and across countries. The next logical step is obviously studying the perception of dividends by the non‐professional investor.

Originality/value

This kind of work was almost never done. This is a first, because unfortunately traditional research that dominates most finance journals does not believe that motivation counts. First, because it satisfies one's desire to better understand the dividend puzzle. But it should be of interest to all who want to study the dividend decision in the firm, and why shareholders love dividends, something entirely not rational as far as economic rationality goes.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 32 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 August 2019

Maurizio d'Amato, Nikolaj Siniak and Giulia Mastrodonato

The purpose of this study is providing a possible methodological solution to the valuation of cyclical.assets. International Valuation Standards introduce a brand new definition…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is providing a possible methodological solution to the valuation of cyclical.assets. International Valuation Standards introduce a brand new definition of property: the cyclical asset (International Valuation Standards Council 2017, IVS 105, p. 39 and p. 41). Among different property valuation methods, normally this kind of properties is appraised using income approach. In this group of methodology, the opinion of value is based on a proportional relationship between property value and rent. In the past years, a group of methods called cyclical capitalization has been proposed (d’Amato, 2003; d’Amato, 2013;d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017a; d’Amato 2017 b; d’Amato, 2017c). This method proposes an integration between property valuation and property market cycle.

Design/methodology/approach

Cyclical capitalization method is applied using a time series of property market rent of offices in prime location in the South Bank area in London. It consists of the determination of more than one all-risk yield to reproduce the property market cycle.

Findings

A comparison between the cyclical capitalization and two traditional capitalization rate shows how the proposed model is able to provide a stable opinion of value.

Research limitations/implications

The method may represent a contribution for the determination of the value of cyclical assets or for the mortgage lending value.

Practical implications

This paper provides the possibility to have a property valuation method less sensitive to upturn and downturn of the property market.

Social implications

The valuation based on cyclical capitalization are less sensitive to the upturn and the downturn of the market.

Originality/value

It is one of the first scientific paper addressing the problem of the determination of the value of cyclical assets.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 12 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 September 2017

Rida Ahroum and Boujemaa Achchab

Participatory contracts reflect the true spirit of Islamic finance. However, these contracts face several challenges during their implementation. This is reflected by the low…

Abstract

Purpose

Participatory contracts reflect the true spirit of Islamic finance. However, these contracts face several challenges during their implementation. This is reflected by the low volume of contracts processed by Islamic banks and the low number of Sukuk issued. This study aims to introduce a new parameter related to the valuation of Sukuk Musharakah when the underlying asset is a joint venture.

Design/methodology/approach

The author applies the Gordon & Shapiro model on the valuation of Sukuk Musharakah with a joint venture as underlying. A new pricing framework is introduced with several usual parameters such as the profit and loss sharing ratio, besides a new parameter, which is the dividend payout ratio. The framework shall contain price, duration and convexity computation. The new framework differs from the classic bond pricing methodology broadly used nowadays in determination of Sukuk prices.

Findings

The results indicate that negotiating only the profit and loss sharing ratio is not sufficient to have a fair price of Sukuk Musharakah when the underlying is a joint venture. It is due to the mismatch of interest between investors and issuers. Thus, another parameter should be negotiated which is the dividend payout ratio.

Research limitations/implications

The research focuses exclusively on Sukuk Musharakah with joint venture as underlying. Also, the choice of Gordon & Shapiro formula, by definition of the model, restricts the calculation of the net asset value by using only the future expected dividends with constant growth. This choice is made primarily to explain the objective of this paper in a simple way.

Practical implications

For investors, a compatible pricing framework with the underlying flows and risks of an asset is essential to create a liquid market. This work would help investors to boost the Sukuk Musharakah market.

Originality/value

Several studies have analyzed the various challenges in Sukuk markets. Few of them dealt with specificities of Sukuk Musharakah by focusing on the underlying nature. So far, the profit and loss sharing ratio is the only parameter analyzed in these studies. Thus, the authors contribute to the literature by studying other parameters that can solve the various challenges of Sukuk Markets.

Details

Journal of Islamic Accounting and Business Research, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-0817

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2022

Aby Grisly Huaman-Ñope, Arthur Giuseppe Serrato-Cherres, Maria Jeanett Ramos-Cavero and Franklin Cordova-Buiza

The study aimed to determine how reputational risk affects the stocks prices of companies listed on the Lima Stock Exchange.

Abstract

Purpose

The study aimed to determine how reputational risk affects the stocks prices of companies listed on the Lima Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

The study follows a documentary research with a quantitative approach. Companies from different sectors listed on the Lima Stock Exchange were taken as a sample.

Findings

The incidence between the reputational risk and the stock price of the companies listed on the stock market, as well as the impact on profitability indicators and income level were demonstrated. Additionally, it was determined that the cost of capital has a greater impact if the entity is financed from the issuance of bonds rather than by subsidiaries.

Originality/value

Companies that presented well-known events in Peru and those that caused damage to their corporate reputations were studied. Likewise, information from sources such as Monitor Empresarial de Reputación Corporativa, Peruvian Securities Market Regulator’s office and Lima Stock Exchange was documented in order to analyze the variations in financial indicators during the indicated events. Financial models such as CAPM and GORDON-SHAPIRO were also used.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 49 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2022

Ken-Yien Leong, Mohamed Ariff, Zarei Alireza and M. Ishaq Bhatti

The objective of this paper is to investigate the validity of stock valuation theories and their forecasting ability by conducting an empirical study. It employs four most…

Abstract

Purpose

The objective of this paper is to investigate the validity of stock valuation theories and their forecasting ability by conducting an empirical study. It employs four most commonly used theories which are then tested using 19-year banking-firm market data. The usefulness of these models demonstrates with promising results.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper conducts a multi-country study using the multi-model testing approach to evaluate validity of theories and forecast accuracy of banking firms. It employs four methodology models used in finance literature; (1) P/E multiples model, (2) accounting-information-based clean surplus model, (3) theoretical model based on Gordon and Shapiro (1956) method and (4) the Damodaran-Kottler Free Cash Flow or FCF theory based on discounting model.

Findings

The tests show that the four theories under tests have a significant fit with actual price formation. The explained variation ranges from 72 to 92%, so the explanatory power of the theories accounting for variations in bank prices over 19-year period is substantial. The models fit suggest that the P/E model has superior predictive power followed by the RIM, DDM and FCFE. These findings shed new lights on the relative performance of valuation models.

Research limitations/implications

The study is limited in terms of the sample period size for 1999–2019. The availability of essential financial data prior to 2000 is very limited, so one can understand interpretation of statistical results under certain assumptions.

Practical implications

The paper suggests that one-factor model is better than the two-factor model.

Originality/value

The work done in this paper is unpublished and original contribution to banking and finance literature and also not under consideration for publication in any other journal.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Automated Information Retrieval: Theory and Methods
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-12266-170-9

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2010

Stanley Paulo

The purpose of this paper is to offer a viewpoint on the 1961 scientific method and research methodology used by Miller and Modigliani to derive the conclusion that dividends are…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to offer a viewpoint on the 1961 scientific method and research methodology used by Miller and Modigliani to derive the conclusion that dividends are irrelevant, with reference to the UK Companies Act of 2006, specifically Sections 829‐840 that concern distributions, and Section 172 that stipulates the duties of the directors in their promotion of the success of the company.

Design/methodology/approach

The relevant sections of the UK Companies Act of 2006 concerning distributions and the duty of directors to promote the success of the company were studied. It was followed by a detailed analysis of the article by Miller and Modigliani, in particular the purpose, assumptions, the 30 equations that comprise their model, and their interpretive logic in drawing conclusions from their equations.

Findings

In effect, Miller and Modigliani exclude dividends as a determinant of share value, side‐step the purpose of their research, do not state assumptions upon which their analysis and interpretations are reliant, and disregard the conceptual difference between income and capital. On the basis of their interpretive logic not only is the dividend decision irrelevant but so too is the financing decision and important aspects of company law. Nonetheless, the erroneous doctrinal view that is presented by Miller and Modigliani continues to have obstinately resolute adherents, as evidenced by its uncritical presentation in authoritative textbooks on financial management.

Originality/value

This paper's view is that the continued uncritical presentation of Miller and Modigliani cannot be justified as an approach consistent with sound research methodology.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 52 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

1 – 10 of 839