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Article
Publication date: 10 January 2024

Nugroho Saputro, Putra Pamungkas, Irwan Trinugroho, Yoshia Christian Mahulette, Bruno Sergio Sergi and Goh Lim Thye

This paper investigated whether a bank’s popularity and depositors' fear of Google search volume could affect bank deposits and credit.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigated whether a bank’s popularity and depositors' fear of Google search volume could affect bank deposits and credit.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used two different quarterly data from Google Trends and banking data from 2012 Q1 to 2020 Q1. Based on available data, Google Trends data start from 2012. The authors exclude data after 2020 Q1 because the Covid-19 pandemic arguably increased the volume of Internet users due to shifting behavior to online activities. They merged and cleaned the data by winsorizing at 5 and 95 percentiles to avoid any outlier problems, reaching 74 banks in the sample. They used panel data estimation of quarterly data following Levy-Yeyati et al. (2010) and Trinugroho et al. (2020).

Findings

The results show that a higher search volume of a bank’s name leads to higher deposits. A higher search volume of depositor fear reduces deposits and credit. The authors also found that banks with high risk and a high search volume of their name have a significantly lower volume of deposits.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, not many papers in banking and finance have used Google Trends data to gauge related issues regarding depositors' behavior. The authors have filled a gap in the literature by investigating whether the popularity of Google search and depositors' fear could impact deposits and credit. This study also attempted to establish whether Google Trends data could be a reliable source of information to predict depositors' behavior by using a Zscore to measure bank risk.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 March 2024

Giovanni De Luca and Monica Rosciano

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty…

Abstract

Purpose

The tourist industry has to adopt a big data-driven foresight approach to enhance decision-making in a post-COVID international landscape still marked by significant uncertainty and in which some megatrends have the potential to reshape society in the next decades. This paper, considering the opportunity offered by the application of the quantitative analysis on internet new data sources, proposes a prediction method using Google Trends data based on an estimated transfer function model.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses the time-series methods to model and predict Google Trends data. A transfer function model is used to transform the prediction of Google Trends data into predictions of tourist arrivals. It predicts the United States tourism demand in Italy.

Findings

The results highlight the potential expressed by the use of big data-driven foresight approach. Applying a transfer function model on internet search data, timely forecasts of tourism flows are obtained. The two scenarios emerged can be used in tourism stakeholders’ decision-making process. In a future perspective, the methodological path could be applied to other tourism origin markets, to other internet search engine or other socioeconomic and environmental contexts.

Originality/value

The study raises awareness of foresight literacy in the tourism sector. Secondly, it complements the research on tourism demand forecasting by evaluating the performance of quantitative forecasting techniques on new data sources. Thirdly, it is the first paper that makes the United States arrival predictions in Italy. Finally, the findings provide immediate valuable information to tourism stakeholders that could be used to make decisions.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 October 2023

Alex Rudniy, Olena Rudna and Arim Park

This paper seeks to demonstrate the value of using social media to capture fashion trends, including the popularity of specific features of clothing, in order to improve the speed…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to demonstrate the value of using social media to capture fashion trends, including the popularity of specific features of clothing, in order to improve the speed and accuracy of supply chain response in the era of fast fashion.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the role that text mining can play to improve trend recognition in the fashion industry. Researchers used n-gram analysis to design a social media trend detection tool referred to here as the Twitter Trend Tool (3Ts). This tool was applied to a Twitter dataset to identify trends whose validity was then checked against Google Trends.

Findings

The results suggest that Twitter data are trend representative and can be used to identify the apparel features that are most in demand in near real time.

Originality/value

The 3Ts introduced in this research contributes to the field of fashion analytics by offering a novel method for employing big data from social media to identify consumer preferences in fashion elements and analyzes consumer preferences to improve demand planning.

Practical implications

The 3Ts improves forecasting models and helps inform marketing campaigns in the apparel retail industry, especially in fast fashion.

Details

Journal of Fashion Marketing and Management: An International Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1361-2026

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 January 2022

Dinda Thalia Andariesta and Meditya Wasesa

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

4857

Abstract

Purpose

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Findings

Prediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.

Originality/value

First, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 December 2023

Isuru Udayangani Hewapathirana

This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.

Abstract

Purpose

This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.

Design/methodology/approach

Two sets of experiments are performed in this research. First, the predictive accuracy of three ML models, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN), is compared against the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using historical tourist arrivals as features. Subsequently, the impact of incorporating social media data from TripAdvisor and Google Trends as additional features is investigated.

Findings

The findings reveal that the ML models generally outperform the SARIMA model, particularly from 2019 to 2021, when several unexpected events occurred in Sri Lanka. When integrating social media data, the RF model performs significantly better during most years, whereas the SVR model does not exhibit significant improvement. Although adding social media data to the ANN model does not yield superior forecasts, it exhibits proficiency in capturing data trends.

Practical implications

The findings offer substantial implications for the industry's growth and resilience, allowing stakeholders to make accurate data-driven decisions to navigate the unpredictable dynamics of Sri Lanka's tourism sector.

Originality/value

This study presents the first exploration of ML models and the integration of social media data for forecasting Sri Lankan tourist arrivals, contributing to the advancement of research in this domain.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 January 2024

Stefano Cosma and Daniela Pennetta

This work aims to explore the effects of (equity and non-equity) strategic alliances between banks and FinTechs on FinTechs' online visibility.

Abstract

Purpose

This work aims to explore the effects of (equity and non-equity) strategic alliances between banks and FinTechs on FinTechs' online visibility.

Design/methodology/approach

For a sample of 124 Italian FinTechs, the authors measured online visibility through their website ranking (Google PageRank) and website traffic (Google Trends). Consistent to the historical depth of these measures, the authors separately investigated the effect of equity and non-equity (contractual) agreements on online visibility by means of ordinal logistic regressions and diff-in-diff analysis.

Findings

Strategic alliances with banks enhance FinTechs' online visibility. Although both equity and contractual agreements positively influence the popularity of FinTechs' website achieved through the activity of internal and external online content creators (websites ranking), only equity agreements are effective in attracting Internet users (website traffic).

Practical implications

When deciding to interact with banks, FinTechs' managers should consider that equity agreements may be a powerful strategic choice for enlarging the customer base and boosting visibility of FinTechs.

Social implications

Fostering strategic alliances between banks and FinTechs contributes to FinTechs' growth, generating virtuous mechanisms of innovation, financial inclusion and better allocative efficiency of the financial system.

Originality/value

This work expands marketing knowledge and literature regarding online visibility determinants, by investigating the benefits of strategic alliances and cooperation in the market, while providing an empirical strategy replicable by future marketing studies.

Details

International Journal of Bank Marketing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0265-2323

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 20 October 2023

Peterson K. Ozili

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of global interest in central bank digital currency (CBDC). It assessed whether global interest in sustainable development and…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the determinants of global interest in central bank digital currency (CBDC). It assessed whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are determinants of global interest in CBDC.

Design/methodology/approach

Google Trends data were analyzed using two-stage least square regression estimation.

Findings

There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in sustainable development and global interest in CBDC. There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in cryptocurrency and global interest in the Nigeria eNaira CBDC. There is a significant negative relationship between global interest in CBDC and global interest in the eNaira CBDC. There is a significant positive relationship between global interest in CBDC and global interest in the China eCNY. There is a significant negative relationship between global interest in cryptocurrency and global interest in the Sand Dollar and DCash.

Originality/value

The literature has not empirically examined whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are factors motivating global interest in CBDC. This study fills a gap in the literature by investigating whether global interest in sustainable development and cryptocurrency are factors motivating global interest in CBDC.

Details

Digital Transformation and Society, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2755-0761

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 September 2023

Peterson K. Ozili

This paper aims to review the relevant forensic accounting research (FAR) around the world and suggests avenues for future research in forensic accounting.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to review the relevant forensic accounting research (FAR) around the world and suggests avenues for future research in forensic accounting.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used the thematic and systematic literature review methodology to analyse the existing literature in FAR.

Findings

The major thematic areas in the literature are fraud motivation, fraud consequences, fraud detection using forensic accounting techniques, forensic accounting theory, forensic accounting skills, forensic accounting education and forensic accounting jobs. The quantity of FAR is relatively small compared to the quantity of research in other accounting specializations. FAR is well developed in the USA and Canada and is less developed in Europe, Oceania and Asia. There is high interest in FAR in African countries. There is a relatively low global interest in internet information about “forensic accounting research” compared to global interest in other forensic accounting topics. Areas for future research include the role of the environment, digitalization, religiosity and sustainable development in forensic accounting.

Practical implications

FAR around the world is lopsided, as some regions have more advanced FAR compared to other regions. There is a need for even development of FAR across all regions and a need to publicize the outputs of FAR to a larger audience to increase people’s interest in forensic accounting.

Originality/value

The study extends the literature by presenting a rigorous thematic and systematic review of the existing literature. It highlights the depth of FAR, the major thematic areas, the benefits of FAR to society and the geographical reach of existing FAR.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Fatma Ben Hamadou, Taicir Mezghani, Ramzi Zouari and Mouna Boujelbène-Abbes

This study aims to assess the predictive performance of various factors on Bitcoin returns, used for the development of a robust forecasting support decision model using machine…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess the predictive performance of various factors on Bitcoin returns, used for the development of a robust forecasting support decision model using machine learning techniques, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, the authors investigate the impact of the investor's sentiment on forecasting the Bitcoin returns.

Design/methodology/approach

This method uses feature selection techniques to assess the predictive performance of the different factors on the Bitcoin returns. Subsequently, the authors developed a forecasting model for the Bitcoin returns by evaluating the accuracy of three machine learning models, namely the one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), the bidirectional deep learning long short-term memory (BLSTM) neural networks and the support vector machine model.

Findings

The findings shed light on the importance of the investor's sentiment in enhancing the accuracy of the return forecasts. Furthermore, the investor's sentiment, the economic policy uncertainty (EPU), gold and the financial stress index (FSI) are the top best determinants before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, there was a significant decrease in the importance of financial uncertainty (FSI and EPU) during the COVID-19 pandemic, proving that investors attach much more importance to the sentimental side than to the traditional uncertainty factors. Regarding the forecasting model accuracy, the authors found that the 1D-CNN model showed the lowest prediction error before and during the COVID-19 and outperformed the other models. Therefore, it represents the best-performing algorithm among its tested counterparts, while the BLSTM is the least accurate model.

Practical implications

Moreover, this study contributes to a better understanding relevant for investors and policymakers to better forecast the returns based on a forecasting model, which can be used as a decision-making support tool. Therefore, the obtained results can drive the investors to uncover potential determinants, which forecast the Bitcoin returns. It actually gives more weight to the sentiment rather than financial uncertainties factors during the pandemic crisis.

Originality/value

To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to have attempted to construct a novel crypto sentiment measure and use it to develop a Bitcoin forecasting model. In fact, the development of a robust forecasting model, using machine learning techniques, offers a practical value as a decision-making support tool for investment strategies and policy formulation.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 February 2024

Nhung Thi Nguyen, An Tuan Nguyen and Dinh Trung Nguyen

This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the effects of investor sentiment on the development of the real estate corporate bond market in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The research uses an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model with quarterly data. Additionally, the study employs Google Trends search data (GVSI) related to topics such as “Real Estate” and “Corporate Bond” to construct a sentiment index.

Findings

The empirical outcomes reveal that real estate market sentiment improves the growth of the real estate corporate bond market, while stock market sentiment reduces it. Also, there is evidence of a long-run negative effect of corporate bond market sentiment on the total value of real estate bond issuance. Further empirical research evidences the short-term effect of sentiment and economic factors on corporate bond development in the real estate industry.

Research limitations/implications

Due to difficulties in collecting data, this paper has the limited sample of 54 valid quarterly observations. Moreover, the sentiment index based on Google search volume data only reflects the interest level of investors, not their attitudes.

Practical implications

These results yield important implications for policymakers in respect of strengthening the corporate bond market platform and maintaining stability in macroeconomic and monetary policies in order to promote efficient and sustainable market development.

Social implications

The study offers some suggestions for regulators and governments to improve the real estate corporate bond market.

Originality/value

This is the first quantitative study to examine the effect of sentiment factors on real estate corporate bond development in Vietnam.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

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