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1 – 10 of over 17000This paper analyzes the gold Murabahah contract, which tends to be very popular in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry. As the contract is very sensitive to the gold price…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper analyzes the gold Murabahah contract, which tends to be very popular in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry. As the contract is very sensitive to the gold price movement and speculative motive, a comprehensive assessment is done to assess the behavior of the gold price movement, behavior of the investors and the limits of the gold Murabahah contract. It proposes recommendations to manage the gold Murabahah contract and to mitigate its potential risks.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper examines the gold price, termination of contract and limitation of the amount of funds in the gold Murabahah transactions by using quantitative formulas, such as variance, expected prices and probability of occurrence. In addition, it includes a qualitative analysis of the historical pattern of daily gold prices in the past 12 years. As such, a combination of both approaches generates a comprehensive analysis and recommendations to policymakers, Islamic bankers and investors.
Findings
It finds some interesting outcomes with regard to the behavior of gold prices, behavior of investors regarding the gold Murabahah contract and intention of investors to terminate gold Murabahah contracts prior to their maturity date. Such outcomes become the material for the policy recommendations of the paper. Particularly, it proposes the margin of the Murabahah gold contract, tenor of the contract, down payment and a review of the base gold Murabahah regulation to manage the gold Murabahah contract and to mitigate risks.
Research limitations/implications
The paper does not consider macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate and economic growth which may affect the movement of the world’s gold prices. It does not examine the gold Murabahah contract in other countries, as it is believed that the gold Murabahah contract is very popular only in the Indonesian Islamic banking industry.
Originality/value
To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper examines the gold Murabahah contract in relation to the Indonesian Islamic banking industry.
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When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations…
Abstract
Purpose
When facing a clouded global economy, many countries would increase their gold reserves. On the other hand, oil supply and demand depends on the political and economic situations of oil producing countries and their production technologies. Both oil and gold reserve play important roles in the economic development of a country. The paper aims to discuss this issue.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper uses the historical data of oil and gold prices as research data, and uses the historical price tendency charts of oil and gold, as well as cluster analysis, to discuss the correlation between the historical data of oil and gold prices. By referring to the technical index equation of stocks, the technical indices of oil and gold prices are calculated as the independent variable and the closing price as the dependent variable of the forecasting model.
Findings
The findings indicate that there is no obvious correlation between the price tendencies of oil and gold. According to five evaluating indicators, the MFOAGRNN forecast model has better forecast ability than the other three forecasting models.
Originality/value
This paper explored the correlation between oil and gold prices, and built oil and gold prices forecasting models. In addition, this paper proposes a modified FOA (MFOA), where an escape parameter Δ is added to Si. The findings showed that the forecasting model that combines MFOA and GRNN has the best ability to forecast the closing price of oil and gold.
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Z. Göknur Büyükkara, İsmail Cem Özgüler and Ali Hepsen
The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to explore the intricate relationship between oil prices, house prices in the UK and Norway, and the mediating role of gold and stock prices in both the short- and long-term, unraveling these complex linkages by employing an empirical approach.
Design/methodology/approach
This study benefits from a comprehensive set of econometric tools, including a multiequation vector autoregressive (VAR) system, Granger causality test, impulse response function, variance decomposition and a single-equation autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) system. This rigorous approach enables to identify both short- and long-run dynamics to unravel the intricate linkages between Brent oil prices, housing prices, gold prices and stock prices in the UK and Norway over the period from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2.
Findings
The findings indicate that rising oil prices negatively impact house prices, whereas the positive influence of stock market performance on housing is more pronounced. A two-way causal relationship exists between stock market indices and house prices, whereas a one-way causal relationship exists from crude oil prices to house prices in both countries. The VAR model reveals that past housing prices, stock market indices in each country and Brent oil prices are the primary determinants of current housing prices. The single-equation ARDL results for housing prices demonstrate the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between real estate and stock prices. The variance decomposition analysis indicates that oil prices have a more pronounced impact on housing prices compared with stock prices. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a greater influence on housing market prices than those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.
Research limitations/implications
This study may have several limitations. First, the model does not include all relevant macroeconomic variables, such as interest rates, unemployment rates and gross domestic product growth. This omission may affect the accuracy of the model’s predictions and lead to inefficiencies in the real estate market. Second, this study does not consider alternative explanations for market inefficiencies, such as behavioral finance factors, information asymmetry or market microstructure effects. Third, the models have limitations in revealing how predictors react to positive and negative shocks. Therefore, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution.
Practical implications
These findings hold significant implications for formulating dynamic policies aimed at stabilizing the housing markets of these two oil-producing nations. The practical implications of this study extend to academics, investors and policymakers, particularly in light of the volatility characterizing both housing and commodity markets. The findings reveal that shocks in stock markets have a more profound impact on housing market prices compared with those in oil or gold prices. Consequently, house prices exhibit a stronger reaction to general financial market indicators than to commodity prices.
Social implications
These findings could also serve as valuable insights for future research endeavors aimed at constructing models that link real estate market dynamics to macroeconomic indicators.
Originality/value
Using a variety of econometric approaches, this paper presents an innovative empirical analysis of the intricate relationship between euro property prices, stock prices, gold prices and oil prices in the UK and Norway from 2005:Q1 to 2022:Q2. Expanding upon the existing literature on housing market price determinants, this study delves into the role of gold and oil prices, considering their impact on industrial production and overall economic growth. This paper provides valuable policy insights for effectively managing the impact of oil price shocks on the housing market.
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Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…
Abstract
Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.
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Shailesh Rastogi and Jagjeevan Kanoujiya
This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to analyze the volatility spillover effects of crude oil, gold price, interest rate (yield) and the exchange rate (USD (United States Dollar)/INR (Indian National Rupee)) on inflation volatility in India.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models (Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner [BEKK]-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation [DCC]-GARCH) to examine the volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators and strategic commodities on inflation in India. The monthly data are collected from January 2000 till December 2020 for the crude oil price, gold price, interest rate (5-year Indian bond yield), exchange rate (USD/INR) and inflation (wholesale price index [WPI] and consumer price index [CPI]).
Findings
In BEKK-GARCH, the results reveal that crude oil price volatility has a long time spillover effect on inflation (WPI). Furthermore, no significant short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil market to inflation (WPI). However, the short-term volatility effect exists from crude oil to inflation while considering CPI as inflation. Gold price volatility has a bidirectional and negative spillover effect on inflation in the case of WPI. However, there is no price volatility spillover effect from gold to inflation in the case of CPI. The price volatility in the exchange rate also has a negative spillover effect on inflation (but only on CPI). Furthermore, volatility of interest rates has no spillover effect on inflation in WPI or CPI. In DCC-GARCH, a short-term volatility impact from all four macroeconomic indicators to inflation is found. Only crude oil and exchange rate have long-term volatility effect on inflation (CPI).
Practical implications
In an economy, inflation management is an essential task. The findings of the current study can be beneficial in this endeavor. The knowledge of the volatility spillover effect of all the four markets undertaken in the study can be significantly helpful in inflation management, especially for inflation-targeting policy.
Originality/value
It is observed that no other study has addressed this issue. We do not find any other research which studies the volatility spillover effect of gold, crude oil, interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation volatility. The current study is novel with a significant contribution to the vast knowledge in this context.
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Mumtaz Ali, Ahmed Samour, Foday Joof and Turgut Tursoy
This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to assess how real income, oil prices and gold prices affect housing prices in China from 2010 to 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses a novel bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) testing to empirically analyze the short and long links among the tested variables.
Findings
The ARDL estimations demonstrate a positive impact of oil price shocks and real income on housing market prices in both the phrases of the short and long run. Furthermore, the results reveal that gold price shocks negatively affect housing prices both in the short and long run. The result can be attributed to China’s housing market and advanced infrastructure, resulting in a drop in housing prices as gold prices increase. Additionally, the prediction of housing market prices will provide a base and direction for housing market investors to forecast housing prices and avoid losses.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to analyze the effect of gold price shocks on housing market prices in China.
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Suresh Kumar, Ankit Kumar and Gurcharan Singh
This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also examines…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper investigates the causality among gold prices, crude oil prices, bitcoin and stock prices by using daily data from January 2014 to December 2021. The study also examines the data during the COVID-19 outbreak from January 2020 to December 2021.
Design/methodology/approach
To estimate the long- and short-run causality, this study considers the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) cointegration test.
Findings
The analysis found the existence of an asymmetric long-run cointegration among selected assets. Findings indicate that positive changes in bitcoin do not affect stock market in the long term. Changes in crude oil prices have a significant impact on stock prices. Moreover, it is observed that variations in the stock prices trigger a negative impact on gold prices. During the COVID-19 period, the study notices the presence of an asymmetric long-term cointegration between selected assets except bitcoin. Besides, findings revealed that negative price adjustments in gold lead to significant positive shocks in stock market.
Originality/value
These results provide critical information for policy performers and researchers to develop new strategies. Policy regulators can also consider the potential effects of the COVID-19 outbreak while developing strategies for investment decisions.
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Shailesh Rastogi, Adesh Doifode, Jagjeevan Kanoujiya and Satyendra Pratap Singh
Crude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and…
Abstract
Purpose
Crude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.
Design/methodology/approach
This study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.
Findings
The main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.
Practical implications
Gold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.
Originality/value
Gold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.
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Wei Fan, Sihai Fang and Tao Lu
– This study aims to propose the idea of which macro-factors and how the macro-factors impact on the gold price.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to propose the idea of which macro-factors and how the macro-factors impact on the gold price.
Design/methodology/approach
An EGARCH model is applied to test the volatility of gold price. A VAR method is applied to validate the idea by decomposing gold's value into three parts according to its features.
Findings
Three macro-factors have significant impact on the gold's price. The USDX index is negatively correlated with the gold price, while the CRB index and the US Treasury CDS spreads are positively correlated with the gold price. In particular, it is found that the one-lagged CRB index, one-lagged USDX index, and two-lagged US Treasury CDS spreads have significant impact on the gold price.
Research limitations/implications
The findings in this study suggest a normal case of the gold price. However, in particular cases, new models or new parameters may need to be introduced.
Practical implications
This paper bridges the gap between theory and practice on the gold pricing model. The three-factor model can be used for trading in the field of gold investment.
Originality/value
This paper provides a composite idea for investors and researchers to study the gold price.
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Aiza Shabbir, Shazia Kousar and Syeda Azra Batool
The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of the study is to find out the impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the data on gold prices, stock exchange and oil prices for the period 1991–2016. This study applied descriptive statistics, augmented Dickey–Fuller test, correlation and autoregressive distributed lag test.
Findings
The data analysis results showed that gold and oil prices have a significant impact on the stock market.
Research limitations/implications
Following empirical evidence of this study, the authors recommend that investors should invest in gold because the main reason is that hike in inflation reduces the real value of money, and people seek to invest in alternative investment avenues like gold to preserve the value of their assets and earn additional returns. This suggests that investment in gold can be used as a tool to decline inflation pressure to a sustainable level. This study was restricted to use small sample data owing to the availability of data from 1991 to 2017 and could not use structural break unit root tests with two structural break and structural break cointegration approach, as these tests require high-frequency data set.
Originality/value
This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in gold, oil and stock market. In the current era, gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day, and investors think that stock returns may or may not be affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focusses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help investment institutions or portfolio managers.
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