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The purpose of this paper is to examine the findings from ex ante and ex post economic impact appraisals of six major sports events. The ultimate aim of the paper is to identify the factors that cause differences between forecasts of direct expenditure and figures based on primary research.

A direct expenditure forecast for each event was derived based on analysis of event documentation and informed assumptions applied from previous studies. Subsequently, a comprehensive study was undertaken involving primary data collection and associated desk research.

Of the forecasts, three were inflated and three were conservative relative to the ex post figures. In total, two potential sources of variance are examined – visitor spending and organisational expenditure. The former was found to be more unpredictable when compiling a pre‐event forecast. The group for which direct expenditure is most difficult to predict is spectators, with the most exaggerated forecasts associated with free‐to‐view events.

Neither input‐output nor computable general equilibrium models were used to analyse secondary, indirect or induced impacts. Nonetheless, direct expenditure is the basis for modelling wider impacts and is therefore worthy of consideration in its own right.

The paper's findings should enable public sector agencies to better understand the reliability of projected figures presented to them by organisers in exchange for securing financial support for their events.

Economic impact forecasts are rarely subjected to post‐event scrutiny. This research bridges the gap between ex ante and ex post figures and identifies areas where forecast accuracy can be improved.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether attending one‐off sport events might inspire audiences to increase their participation in sport or recreational physical activity.

Primary data collection was undertaken with spectators aged 16 and over at three major sport events held in the UK in 2010. The findings are based on an aggregate sample of 2,312 respondents.

Around two‐thirds of respondents reported that their event experience had inspired them to increase their participation in sport or physical activity. The inspiration effect varied according to age and respondents’ predisposition to sport. The main factors that caused the inspiration were linked directly to the athletes and the competition. The provision of information about opportunities to undertake sport was found to be the most important lever to convert inspiration into participation.

Evidence of the impact of major sport events on mass participation is relatively scarce and inconclusive. In order for any “trickle‐down” effect to occur, it would be reasonable to assume that audiences would first be inspired by their event experience. It is this basic sense of inspiration that the research aimed to measure.

Evidence of the link between major sports events and increased participation at grassroots level is somewhat mixed. The purpose of this paper is to examine attitudinal changes to sport participation among spectators associated with seven sports events held in Great Britain in 2014.

Primary data were gathered from 4,590 spectators aged 16 and over who attended one of the events. Both positive (inspiration) effects and negative (discouragement) effects were considered through the lens of the transtheoretical model (TTM).

The evidence from this research indicates that event audiences belong primarily to the latter (more active) stages of the TTM. It was also found that attending sports events can further fuel the existing desire of contemplators to increase participation, whereas the catalytic effect among pre-contemplators is arguably less potent. Virtually no discouragement effects were observed across the different TTM stages.

The research stops short of measuring actual changes in sport participation post-event of individuals in the different TTM stages and any attribution of such behaviour changes to events. This is both a limitation of the current research and a natural direction for future research.

The main implications for promoting sport participation through the medium of sports events include attracting more people in the early stages of the TTM, greater collaboration between different event stakeholders and the building of sport participation strategies into the event planning phase.

Models of behaviour change such as the TTM have seldom been applied to document the current and/or planned sport participation behaviour of individuals in a sport event context or to examine attitudinal changes towards sport as a result of attending an event. An adapted version of the TTM has been proposed to overcome the limitations of the traditional model.

This paper aims to explore at what league size competitive balance reaches its best level through a longitudinal study and by using the English Premier League (EPL) as an example.

To test the influence of league size on competitive balance in the EPL, the authors first calculated competitive balance scores for 22 seasons between 1995/96 and 2016/17 under the existing 20 team system. They then calculated a further ten normalised competitive balance scores for each EPL season by adjusting the league size to examine the league size threshold at which competitive balance in each season of the EPL was at its best level.

The analysis indicates that the current league structure of 20 teams compromises the overall level of competitive balance in the EPL in comparison with a league comprising between 10 and 19 teams. However, the authors cannot pinpoint the precise league size at which the EPL is most competitively balanced, as no significant differences were observed between the competitive balance indices for these league sizes.

The findings of this study have practical relevance for league organisers and the Union of European Football Associations given that they themselves have stated that competitive balance will be a big challenge for the European football industry in the coming years.

The purpose of this paper is to examine competitive balance in European football leagues before and after the inception of Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations by Union of European Football Associations in 2011, designed to bring about financial stability and improve competitive balance in the European game.

The research focuses on the top division football leagues in England (English Premier League), Germany (Bundesliga), France (Ligue 1), Italy (Serie A) and Spain (La Liga). The paper is organised into two distinct time periods: pre-FFP, comprising the six seasons between 2005/2006 and 2010/2011; and post-FFP, comprising the six seasons between 2011/2012 and 2016/2017. The paper uses recognised measures of concentration and dominance to measure competitive balance.

The results show a statistically significant decline in competitive balance post-FFP for leagues in Spain, Germany and France but not for England and Italy. Furthermore, the results report significantly higher levels of concentration and dominance by a select number of clubs in Germany.

The paper is one of the first to analyse competitive balance in this way both pre- and post-FFP. Whilst the paper cannot demonstrate a causal link between FFP and competitive balance, there are strong indications that competitive balance has been adversely affected (for some leagues) since the regulations have been imposed. To that end, the paper argues that FFP has had “unintended consequences” in respect of competitive balance.

This paper examines the hidden financial benefits that non-elite events are capable of delivering for host cities. The paper provides examples of how mass participation (and other non-elite) events can generate substantial economic impacts comparable to and, in some cases greater than, those associated with elite events. Cost-effectiveness of mass participation events, relative to major elite sports events, is discussed.

This paper aims to provide empirical evidence on competitive balance in the “big five” European football leagues, namely, the English Premier League, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga, Italian Serie A and Spanish La Liga.

This paper uses recognised measures of competitive balance to measure levels of concentration (within-season competitive balance) and dominance (between-season competitive balance) in the selected leagues over 22 seasons between 1995/96 and 2016/17.

French Ligue 1 emerged as the most balanced league in terms of both concentration and dominance measures. The analysis also points to a statistically significant decline in competitive balance in all leagues apart from Serie A (Italy).

The findings of this study are of concern for the league organisers. Competition intensity is a key component of a sport league, and a league that is dominated by one or a select few clubs is less attractive within the marketplace. This paper presents challenges at the league governance level for the five leagues examined.

A feature of many non-elite sports events, especially those conducted in public places, is that they are free-to-view. The article focuses on the methodological issue of estimating spectator attendance at free-to-view events and the consequences for impact evaluation. Using empirical data from three case studies, the article outlines various approaches to measuring attendance and discusses the key issues and implications for evaluating free-to-view sports events.

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the methodologies used to evaluate major events. It aims to establish the most practically‐relevant methodology for analysing the economic impact of routinely‐held major events and to identify the key methodological issues for future consideration.

The paper draws on empirical research undertaken by the Sport Industry Research Centre using the direct expenditure approach (DEA).

The DEA is the most pragmatic and cost‐effective method for evaluating the economic impact of medium‐sized major events. However, the approach is only as robust as the quality of data utilised to derive estimates. Key emerging methodological issues are measuring attendance, consideration of direct first‐round leakage and treatment of organisational spend and event surplus/deficit.

The DEA limits the measurement of economic impact to first‐round spending associated with an event. It is not suitable for measuring large‐scale mega‐events that require a more holistic and advanced method of event evaluation.

The paper considers the methods used to evaluate events in the context of balancing academic rigour with the everyday practical realities and constraints facing event organisers and researchers. It discusses existing and emerging methodological considerations and techniques for dealing with these. The paper will be of particular interest to researchers and practitioners from the event industry carrying out or commissioning economic impact studies.