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1 – 10 of over 2000
Article
Publication date: 28 November 2022

Kazi Sohag, Md Monirul Islam, Ivana Tomas Žiković and Hoda Mansour

The study's objective is to measure the response of the food prices to the aggregate and disaggregate geopolitical risk events, Russia's geopolitical risks and global energy…

1834

Abstract

Purpose

The study's objective is to measure the response of the food prices to the aggregate and disaggregate geopolitical risk events, Russia's geopolitical risks and global energy prices in the context of two European regions, i.e. Eastern and Western Europe covering the monthly data from January 2001 to March 2022.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors apply a novel and sophisticated econometric method, the cross-quantilogram (CQ) approach, to analyse the authors’ monthly data properties. This method detects the causal relationship between the variables under the bi-variate modelling approach. More importantly, the CQ procedure divulges the bearish and bullish states of the causal association between the variables under short, medium and long memories.

Findings

The authors find that aggregate measures of geopolitical risk reduce food prices in the short term in the Eastern Europe but increases food prices in the Western Europe. Besides, the decomposed measures of geopolitical risk “threats” and “acts” have heterogeneous effects on the food prices. More importantly, Russia's geopolitical risk events and global energy prices enhance the food inflation under long memory.

Research limitations/implications

The authors provide diverse policy implications for Eastern and Western Europe based on the authors’ findings. First, the European policymakers should take concrete and joint policy measures to tackle the detrimental effects of geopolitical risks to bring stability to the food markets. Second, this region should emphasize utilizing their unused agricultural lands to grow more crops to avoid external dependence on food. Third, the European Union and its partners should begin global initiatives to help smallholder farmers because of their contribution to the resilience of disadvantaged, predominantly rural communities. Fourth, geopolitically affected European countries like Ukraine should deal with a crippled supply chain to safeguard their production infrastructure. Fifth, fuel (oil) scarcity in the European region due to the Russia-Ukraine war should be mitigated by searching for alternative sources (countries) for smooth food transportation for trade. Finally, as Europe and its Allies impose new sanctions in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, it can have immediate and long-run disastrous consequences on the European and the global total food systems. In this case, all European blocks mandate cultivating stratagems to safeguard food security and evade a long-run cataclysm with multitudinous geopolitical magnitudes for European countries and the rest of the world.

Originality/value

This is the maiden study that considers the aggregated and disaggregated measures of the geopolitical risk events, Russia's geopolitical risks and global energy prices and delves into these dynamics' effects on food prices. Notably, linking the context of the Russia-Ukraine war is a significant value addition to the existing piece of food literature.

Article
Publication date: 28 November 2023

Nikolaos A. Kyriazis and Emmanouil M.L. Economou

This paper aims to explore the spillover impacts that domestic or global aspects of geopolitical risk generate on uncertainty. The latter is derived from a spectrum of different…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the spillover impacts that domestic or global aspects of geopolitical risk generate on uncertainty. The latter is derived from a spectrum of different sources in the USA (economic policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, national security, government spending, taxation) from 1985 up to November 2022.

Design/methodology/approach

Vector autoregressive schemes are used to detect causality and reverse causality between each aspect of geopolitical risk and each source of US uncertainty.

Findings

Notably, national security generates higher geopolitical risk by almost 8% in the first month but decreases GPR by 2% in the third month after the shock. USA is found to constitute a cornerstone as regards global peace and that the overall economic or monetary conditions or war status in the USA are remarkably more influential toward domestic and global geopolitical uncertainty than separate strands of fiscal policymaking. Reverse causality displays sizably weaker effects overall.

Originality/value

This study sheds light on the determinants of geopolitical risk and domestic instability by an international perspective and provides a compass for better decision-making for fiscal and monetary policymakers and market participants.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 January 2024

Ting-Ting Sun and Chi Wei Su

The study investigates the inter-linkages between geopolitical risk (GPR) and food price (FP).

Abstract

Purpose

The study investigates the inter-linkages between geopolitical risk (GPR) and food price (FP).

Design/methodology/approach

By employing the bootstrap full- and sub-sample rolling-window Granger causality tests.

Findings

The empirical results show that there is a time-varying bidirectional causality between GPR and FP. High GPR leads to a rise in FP, suggesting that geopolitical events usually may disrupt supply and demand conditions in food markets, and even trigger global food crises. However, the negative effect of GPR on FP does not support this view in certain periods. This is mainly because GPR is also related to the global economic situation and oil price, which together have impacts on the food market. These results cannot always be supported by the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model, which states that GPR affects FP in a positive manner. Conversely, there is a positive impact of FP on GPR, indicating that the food market is an effective tool that can reflect global geopolitical environment.

Originality/value

In the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, these analyses can assist investors and policymakers to understand the sensitivity of FP to GPR. Also, it will provide significant revelations for governments to attach importance to the role of food price information in predicting geopolitical events, thus contributing to a more stable international environment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 18 May 2021

Sudeshna Ghosh

This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also…

2925

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand.

Design/methodology/approach

The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables.

Findings

This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists.

Research limitations/implications

This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk.

Originality/value

This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

Details

Review of Economics and Political Science, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2356-9980

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 April 2023

Laharish Guntuka, Thomas M. Corsi and David E. Cantor

The purpose of our study is to investigate how a manufacturing plant’s internal operations along with its network of connections (upstream and downstream) can have an impact on…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of our study is to investigate how a manufacturing plant’s internal operations along with its network of connections (upstream and downstream) can have an impact on its recovery time from a disruption. The authors also examine the inverse-U impact of complexity. Finally, the authors test the moderating role that business continuity management plans (BCP) at the plant level have on recovery time.

Design/methodology/approach

To test our hypotheses, the authors partnered with Resilinc Corporation, a Silicon Valley-based provider of supply chain risk management solutions to identify focal firms’ suppliers, customers and plant-level data including information on parts, manufacturing activities, bill of materials, alternate sites and formal business continuity plans. The authors employed censored data regression technique (Tobit).

Findings

Several important findings reveal that the plant’s internal operations and network connections impact recovery time. Specifically, the number of parts manufactured at the plant as well as the number of internal plant processes significantly increase disruption recovery time. In addition, the number of supply chains (upstream and downstream) involving the plant as well as the echelon distance of the plant from its original equipment manufacturer significantly increase recovery time. The authors also find that there exists an inverted-U relationship between complexity and recovery time. Finally, the authors find partial support that BCP will have a negative moderating effect between complexity and recovery time.

Originality/value

This research highlights gaps in the literature related to supply chain disruption and recovery. There is a need for more accurate methods to measure recovery time, more research on recovery at the supply chain site level and further analysis of the impact of supply chain complexity on recovery time.

Details

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 44 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3577

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 28 September 2023

Georgiana Ioana Tircovnicu and Camelia-Daniela Hategan

The need for an efficient enterprise risk management (ERM) has never been greater than today when organisations face complex and interconnected risks targeting their business…

Abstract

The need for an efficient enterprise risk management (ERM) has never been greater than today when organisations face complex and interconnected risks targeting their business models. Macroeconomics and geopolitical uncertainties, digital transformations of industries and sectors, cybersecurity, and climate change, among other trends, present significant uncertainties. This article aims to analyse the scientific papers on research specific to ERM and review the links between the researched area and market or corporate governance topics. Risk management is underdeveloped in many organisations; the current standard for risk management is a reactive approach. It is usually treated in isolation rather than as a core competency and a strategic asset. As a result, risk management processes are ineffective and seen as adding value to decision-making and responding to uncertainties. Based on the literature, the scope is to set up the framework for future research on ERM by building a bibliometric analysis and examining articles collected from the Web of Science Core Collection database. The study identified the essential research on this topic based on the citations of the papers and the author’s countries with the highest number of publications and citations. VOSviewer software analysed the ERM system based on keywords, citations, geographical distribution, and authorships. The research proves a strong connection between the ERM and corporate governance topics considering the stage where most countries are regarding this subject.

Details

Digital Transformation, Strategic Resilience, Cyber Security and Risk Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80455-254-4

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 February 2023

Neetu and Jacqueline Symss

This paper aims to attempt to examine some of the unique features of cryptocurrency and the reasons for its growing market acceptability. Given the expanding size of…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to attempt to examine some of the unique features of cryptocurrency and the reasons for its growing market acceptability. Given the expanding size of cryptocurrency markets, the present study strives to identify whether it can be used as an alternative financial asset in place of traditional financial assets to meet firms' financial constraints. It also provides issues for future research in the area of cryptocurrency markets.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper analysed 94 research papers from databases such as ScienceDirect, Proquest, EBSCO, Emerald Insight and Web of Science. Articles connected to cryptocurrency, financial assets and corporate financial constraints research were explored. VOSviewer software has been used to visualise the specified body of literature and identify eight clusters in previous literature using keyword and abstract analysis.

Findings

Studies reveal that cryptocurrency markets are independent of traditional financial markets and cryptocurrency returns have less correlation with traditional financial asset classes. This can be an advantage to firms, especially during times of crisis when traditional financial assets are impacted by significantly lower returns, while cryptocurrencies can serve as an alternative. Realtime data reveals that during the pandemic, cryptocurrencies had the maximum growth in returns which also happened to be a time when firms faced severe cash constraints. While accepting cryptocurrency as a means of exchange is still under review by regulatory authorities, it can be considered an alternative asset for investment purposes. Firms can take advantage of it to overcome financial constraints and thus reap the gains from holding crypto assets for precautionary reasons.

Originality/value

The present study investigates using cryptocurrency as an alternative financial asset to solve the financial constraint problem in corporates. The issues regarding volatility, cyber securities, gold returns, long-term and short-term returns have been some of the most prominent studies in the area of cryptocurrency. The present study uses eight theme-based clusters to identify the role of cryptocurrency as an alternative investment class and examines evidence-based research regarding the financial returns from holding cryptocurrency over certain traditional asset classes such as gold, currency or stocks. In recent years, it has been found that investors' growing interest in holding cryptocurrency as part of their financial portfolio has led to the substantial appreciation of cryptocurrency prices. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study will be a novel attempt to identify the role of cryptocurrency as an antidote to the companies’ financial constraints and liquidity issues.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 25 September 2020

Konrad Farrugia, Matthew Attard and Peter J. Baldacchino

This study delves into the determinants and praxis of derivative hedging instruments (DHIs) usage of Malta, a small island state. Empirical evidence is also provided in relation…

Abstract

This study delves into the determinants and praxis of derivative hedging instruments (DHIs) usage of Malta, a small island state. Empirical evidence is also provided in relation to the impact of DHI usage and the adoption of a hedge accounting (HA) model in entities’ financial statements. A mixed methodology design is deployed involving: (1) a series of statistical models and tests and (2) seven semi-structured interviews with senior professionals.

The data collected comprise proxy variable values collected from the financial statements of 568 firm-years from 107 Maltese entities between the years 2009 and 2014. Greater likelihood of financial distress, decreasing investment efficiency and increased levels of gearing, are identified as being significant determinants for the use of DHIs. Although DHI usage is low in comparison to larger states, it has been increasing over the period under study.

HA is evidenced to be less popular in Malta, but the study evidences correlation between certain DHIs and HA usage. The quantitative statistical model results in evidence with no significant earnings volatility (EV) or cash flow volatility (CFV) reduction effects through the application of HA. Albeit, the study finds a significant CFV reduction effect emanating from DHI usage, but no corresponding EV reduction effect.

Better education and dissemination of the HA treatment by auditors and regulatory bodies could help propagate the HA treatment, potentially enhancing the EV reduction effectiveness of DHI use. This research provides empirical evidence to substantiate the rationale behind utilising DHIs in smaller island states, especially when coupled with a sound risk management culture.

Details

Uncertainty and Challenges in Contemporary Economic Behaviour
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80043-095-2

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Adel Mohammed Ghanem, Khaled Nahar Alrwis, Sharafeldin Bakri Alaagib, Nageeb Aldawdahi, Ibrahim Al-Nashwan and Hossam Ghanem

This study aimed to measure the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the value of imports and the food trade balance in Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aimed to measure the effects of the Russian–Ukrainian war on the value of imports and the food trade balance in Saudi Arabia.

Design/methodology/approach

Estimating the suggested model using econometric analysis for the years 1990–2021.

Findings

The amount of deficit increased in the food trade balance from 11.58 billion riyals in 1990 to 72.98 billion riyals in 2021. As for the increase in the index of food production by 10%, it leads to a decrease in the value of food imports for Saudi Arabia by 1.88%. Also, the value of the deficit in Saudi Arabia's food trade balance decreases by 5.24% as a result of a 10% rise in food exports to the country.

Originality/value

In light of the increase in the food price index to 145.8, the value of food imports and the deficit in the food trade balance exceed their counterparts in the current situation for the year 2021, at a rate of 37.1% and 44.5% for each respectively. In view of achieving huge financial surpluses as a result of the rise in oil prices, the Saudi Arabia is able to bear the high import bill and the amount of food trade balance deficit. Finally, the Russian–Ukrainian war leads to an increase in the cost of obtaining food commodities and their unavailability in the markets and thus affects the food security environment. Therefore, this study recommends the necessity of conducting more studies on the impact of the war on the food security of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 September 2023

Salma Mokdadi and Zied Saadaoui

This paper aims to study the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on corporate cost of debt and the moderating role of information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to study the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on corporate cost of debt and the moderating role of information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses 5,223 firm-quarter observations on German-listed firms spanning 2010:Q1–2021:Q4. This study regresses the cost of debt financing on the geopolitical risk, accounting quality and other control variables. Information asymmetry is measured using the performance-matched Jones-model discretionary accrual and the stock bid-ask spread. It uses interaction terms to check if information asymmetry moderates the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debts and control for the moderating role of business risk. For the sake of robustness check, it uses long-term cost of debt and bond spread as alternative dependent variables. In addition, this study executes instrumental variables regression and propension score matching to control for potential endogeneity problems.

Findings

Estimation results show that geopolitical uncertainty exerts a positive impact on the cost of debt. This impact is found to be more important on the cost of long-term debts. Information asymmetry is found to exacerbate the positive impact of geopolitical risk on the cost of debt. These results are robust to the change of the dependent variable and to the mitigation of potential endogeneity. At high levels of information asymmetry, this impact is more important for firms belonging to “Transportation”, “Automobiles and auto parts”, “Chemicals”, “Industrial and commercial services”, “Software and IT services” and “Industrial goods” business sectors.

Research limitations/implications

Geopolitical uncertainty should be seriously considered when setting strategies for corporate financial management in Germany and similar economies that are directly exposed to geopolitical risks. Corporate managers should design a comprehensive set of corporate policies to improve their transparency and accountability during increasing uncertainty. Policymakers are required to implement innovative monetary and fiscal policies that take into consideration the heterogeneous impact of geopolitical uncertainty and information transparency in order to contain their incidence on German business sectors.

Originality/value

Despite its relevance to corporate financing conditions, little is known about the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt financing. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is still no empirical evidence on how information asymmetry between creditors and borrowing firms shapes the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt. This paper tries to fill this gap by interacting two measures of information asymmetry with geopolitical uncertainty. In contrast with previous studies, this study shows that the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the cost of debt is non-linear and heterogeneous. The results show that the impact of geopolitical uncertainty does not exert the same impact on the cost of debt instruments with different maturities. This impact is found to be heterogeneous across business sectors and to depend on the level of information asymmetry.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 24 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 2000