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In order to avoid enterprise crisis and cause the domino effect, which influences the investment return of investors, the national economy, and financial crisis, establishing a complete set of feasible financial early warning model can help to prevent the possibility of enterprise crisis in advance, and thus, reduce the influence on society and the economy. The purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient financial crisis warning model.

First, the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) is used to adjust the coefficients of the parameters in the ZSCORE model (we call it the FOA_ZSCORE model), and the difference between the forecasted value and the real target value is calculated. Afterward, the generalized regressive neural network (GRNN model), with optimized spread by FOA (we call it FOA_GRNN model), is used to forecast the difference to promote the forecasting accuracy. Various models, including ZSCORE, FOA_ZSCORE, FOA_ZSCORE+GRNN, and FOA_ZSCORE+FOA_GRNN, are trained and tested. Finally, different models are compared based on their prediction accuracies and ROC curves. Furthermore, more appropriate parameters, which are different from the parameters in the original ZSCORE model, are selected by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method.

The hybrid model of the FOA_ZSCORE together with the FOA_GRNN offers the highest prediction accuracy, compared to other models; the MARS can be used to select more appropriate parameters to further improve the performance of the prediction models.

This paper proposes a hybrid model, FOA_ZSCORE+FOA_GRNN which offers better performance than the original ZSCORE model.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a profitable and original index options trading strategy.

The methodology is based on auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting of the S&P 500 index and the strategy is tested on a large database of S&P 500 Composite index options and benchmarked to the generalized auto regressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) model. The forecasts validate a set of criteria as follows: the first criterion checks if the forecasted index is greater or lower than the option strike price and the second criterion if the option premium is underpriced or overpriced. A buy or sell and hold strategy is finally implemented.

The paper demonstrates the valuable contribution of this option trading strategy when trading call and put index options. It especially demonstrates that the ARIMA forecasting method is a valid method for forecasting the S&P 500 Composite index and is superior to the GARCH model in the context of an application to index options trading.

The strategy was applied in the aftermath of the 2008 credit crisis over 60 months when the volatility index (VIX) was experiencing a downtrend. The strategy was successful with puts and calls traded on the USA market. The strategy may have a different outcome in a different economic and regional context.

The purpose of this study is to select the appropriate forecasting model at the retail stage for selected vegetables on the basis of performance analysis.

Various forecasting models such as the Box–Jenkins-based auto-regressive integrated moving average model and machine learning-based algorithms such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), random forest regression, gradient boosting regression (GBR) and extreme GBR (XGBoost/XGBR) were proposed and applied (i.e. modeling, training, testing and predicting) at the retail stage for selected vegetables to forecast demand. The performance analysis (i.e. forecasting error analysis) was carried out to select the appropriate forecasting model at the retail stage for selected vegetables.

From the obtained results for a case environment, it was observed that the machine learning algorithms, namely LSTM and SVR, produced the better results in comparison with other different demand forecasting models.

The results obtained from the case environment cannot be generalized. However, it may be used for forecasting of different agriculture produces at the retail stage, capturing their demand environment.

The implementation of LSTM and SVR for the case situation at the retail stage will reduce the forecast error, daily retail inventory and fresh produce wastage and will increase the daily revenue.

The demand forecasting model selection for agriculture produce at the retail stage on the basis of performance analysis is a unique study where both traditional and non-traditional models were analyzed and compared.

This chapter analyses some internal territorial and economic conflicts in Spain among its autonomous communities. The Basque country has a very favourable tax system from 1878, which historically is stipulated in the Spanish constitution as a special case. This generates an asymmetry with respect to the other 18 Spanish communities including Catalonia, which would like to have a fiscal regime similar to that of the Basque country. After the Spanish state has built the fiscal balances for all autonomous communities, the Catalans argue that Spain steals them and they demand independence for Catalonia, which would affect the political and economic stability of the European Union. Specifically, this chapter attempts to describe a way to resolve territorial conflicts that have been exacerbated by the results of the fiscal balances in a context of fiscal decentralisation, since capital stock balances are not considered in the fiscal balances or in the inter-regional balance of payments. In this chapter, a production function approach, where the public capital production factor is separated into internal and imported capital stock, is used to calculate how the capital stock of the transportation infrastructure actually used can affect the labour productivity in each province or region. This study takes into account the direct effects of the capital stock of the road transport infrastructure of a region and the indirect effects that it receives from the use of infrastructures in other regions. Both types of public capital have been calculated by a network analysis, which allows us to calculate the stock of public capital effectively used in commercial activities, across 47 Spanish provinces during the period 1980–2007. The author estimates the spillover effects using spatial panel data techniques including spatial auto-correlation models with auto-regressive disturbances. In terms of labour productivity, the results indicate that the stock of imported capital is highly significant in all estimates while internal capital is not significant for all Spanish provinces, which classifies the Spanish provinces into users and used. This indicates that capital stock balances should be considered in some way into the inter-regional compensation fund to balance local fiscal balances, minimising some conflicts among regions.

Questionnaire studies of knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) are effective research in the field of health, which have many shortcomings. The purpose of this research is to propose an automatic questionnaire-free method based on deep learning techniques to address the shortcomings of common methods. Next, the aim of this research is to use the proposed method with public comments on Twitter to get the gaps in KAP of people regarding COVID-19.

In this paper, two models are proposed to achieve the mentioned purposes, the first one for attitude and the other for people’s knowledge and practice. First, the authors collect some tweets from Twitter and label them. After that, the authors preprocess the collected textual data. Then, the text representation vector for each tweet is extracted using BERT-BiGRU or XLNet-GRU. Finally, for the knowledge and practice problem, a multi-label classifier with 16 classes representing health guidelines is proposed. Also, for the attitude problem, a multi-class classifier with three classes (positive, negative and neutral) is proposed.

Labeling quality has a direct relationship with the performance of the final model, the authors calculated the inter-rater reliability using the Krippendorf alpha coefficient, which shows the reliability of the assessment in both problems. In the problem of knowledge and practice, 87% and in the problem of people’s attitude, 95% agreement was reached. The high agreement obtained indicates the reliability of the dataset and warrants the assessment. The proposed models in both problems were evaluated with some metrics, which shows that both proposed models perform better than the common methods. Our analyses for KAP are more efficient than questionnaire methods. Our method has solved many shortcomings of questionnaires, the most important of which is increasing the speed of evaluation, increasing the studied population and receiving reliable opinions to get accurate results.

Our research is based on social network datasets. This data cannot provide the possibility to discover the public information of users definitively. Addressing this limitation can have a lot of complexity and little certainty, so in this research, the authors presented our final analysis independent of the public information of users.

Combining recurrent neural networks with methods based on the attention mechanism improves the performance of the model and solves the need for large training data. Also, using these methods is effective in the process of improving the implementation of KAP research and eliminating its shortcomings. These results can be used in other text processing tasks and cause their improvement. The results of the analysis on the attitude, practice and knowledge of people regarding the health guidelines lead to the effective planning and implementation of health decisions and interventions and required training by health institutions. The results of this research show the effective relationship between attitude, practice and knowledge. People are better at following health guidelines than being aware of COVID-19. Despite many tensions during the epidemic, most people still discuss the issue with a positive attitude.

To the best of our knowledge, so far, no text processing-based method has been proposed to perform KAP research. Also, our method benefits from the most valuable data of today’s era (i.e. social networks), which is the expression of people’s experiences, facts and free opinions. Therefore, our final analysis provides more realistic results.

“It should also be noted that the objective of convergence and equal distribution, including across under-performing areas, can hinder efforts to generate growth. Contrariwise, the objective of competitiveness can exacerbate regional and social inequalities, by targeting efforts on zones of excellence where projects achieve greater returns (dynamic major cities, higher levels of general education, the most advanced projects, infrastructures with the heaviest traffic, and so on). If cohesion policy and the Lisbon Strategy come into conflict, it must be borne in mind that the former, for the moment, is founded on a rather more solid legal foundation than the latter” European Commission (2005, p. 9)Adaptation of Cohesion Policy to the Enlarged Europe and the Lisbon and Gothenburg Objectives.

Discusses the 27 papers in ISEF 1999 Proceedings on the subject of electromagnetisms. States the groups of papers cover such subjects within the discipline as: induction machines; reluctance motors; PM motors; transformers and reactors; and special problems and applications. Debates all of these in great detail and itemizes each with greater in‐depth discussion of the various technical applications and areas. Concludes that the recommendations made should be adhered to.

In scientific works on forecasting price volatility (of which the overwhelming majority, in comparison with works on price forecasting) for energy products: crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, the authors compared the effectiveness of forecasting models of generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model, GARCH) with regression of support vectors for futures contracts. GARCH models are a standard tool used in the literature on volatility, and the vector machine nonlinear regression model is one of the machine learning methods that has been gaining huge popularity in recent years. The authors have shown that the accuracy of volatility forecasts for energy and aluminum prices significantly depends on the volatility proxy used. The model with correctly defined parameters can lead to fewer prediction errors than GARCH models when the square of the daily yield is used as an indicator of volatility in the evaluation. In addition, it is difficult to choose the best model among GARCH models, but forecasts based on asymmetric GARCH models are often the most accurate. The work is based on a model with a representative investor who solves the problem of optimizing utility in a two-period model. The key assumption of the model is the homogeneity of energy and aluminum investor preferences, that is, preferences do not change over time. There are also works with an attempt to solve this problem in a continuous state space. A completely new theory has been put forward that allows predicting the movement of the underlying asset without using historical data, so this topic is very relevant.

In a volatile agricultural postharvest market, producers require more personalized information about market dynamics for informed decisions on the marketed surplus. However, this adaptive strategy fails to benefit them if the selection of a computational price predictive model to disseminate information on the market outlook is not efficient, and the associated risk of perishability, and storage cost factor are not assumed against the seemingly favourable market behaviour. Consequently, the decision of whether to store or sell at the time of crop harvest is a perennial dilemma to solve. With the intent of addressing this challenge for agricultural producers, the study is focused on designing an agricultural decision support system (ADSS) to suggest a favourable marketing strategy to crop producers.

The present study is guided by an eclectic theoretical perspective from supply chain literature that included agency theory, transaction cost theory, organizational information processing theory and opportunity cost theory in revenue risk management. The paper models a structured iterative algorithmic framework that leverages the forecasting capacity of different time series and machine learning models, considering the effect of influencing factors on agricultural price movement for better forecasting predictability against market variability or dynamics. It also attempts to formulate an integrated risk management framework for effective sales planning decisions that factors in the associated costs of storage, rental and physical loss until the surplus is held for expected returns.

Empirical demonstration of the model was simulated on the dynamic markets of tomatoes, onions and potatoes in a north Indian region. The study results endorse that farmer-centric post-harvest information intelligence assists crop producers in the strategic sales planning of their produce, and also vigorously promotes that the effectiveness of decision making is contingent upon the selection of the best predictive model for every future market event.

As a policy implication, the proposed ADSS addresses the pressing need for a robust marketing support system for the socio-economic welfare of farming communities grappling with distress sales, and low remunerative returns.

Based on the extant literature studied, there is no such study that pays personalized attention to agricultural producers, enabling them to make a profitable sales decision against the volatile post-harvest market scenario. The present research is an attempt to fill that gap with the scope of addressing crop producer's ubiquitous dilemma of whether to sell or store at the time of harvesting. Besides, an eclectic and iterative style of predictive modelling has also a limited implication in the agricultural supply chain based on the literature; however, it is found to be a more efficient practice to function in a dynamic market outlook.

This study aims to predict hotel demand through text analysis by investigating keyword series to increase demand predictions’ precision. To do so, this paper presents a framework for modeling hotel demand that incorporates machine learning techniques.

The empirical forecasting is conducted by introducing a segmented machine learning approach of leveraging hierarchical clustering tied to machine learning and deep learning techniques. These features allow the model to yield more precise estimates. This study evaluates an extensive range of social media–derived words with the most significant probability of gradually establishing an understanding of an optimal outcome. Analyzes were performed on a major hotel chain in an urban market setting within the USA.

The findings indicate that while traditional methods, being the naïve approach and ARIMA models, struggled with forecasting accuracy, segmented boosting methods (XGBoost) leveraging social media predict hotel occupancy with greater precision for all examined time horizons. Additionally, the segmented learning approach improved the forecasts’ stability and robustness while mitigating common overfitting issues within a highly dimensional data set.

Incorporating social media into a segmented learning framework can augment the current generation of forecasting methods’ accuracy. Moreover, the segmented learning approach mitigates the negative effects of market shifts (e.g. COVID-19) that can reduce in-production forecasts’ life-cycles. The ability to be more robust to market deviations will allow hospitality firms to minimize development time.

The results are expected to generate insights by providing revenue managers with an instrument for predicting demand.