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The development of digital technology has provided technical support to various industries. Specifically, Internet-based freight platforms can ensure the high-quality development of the logistics industry. Online freight platforms can use cargo transportation insurance to improve their service capabilities, promote their differentiated development, create products with platform characteristics and increase their core competitiveness.

This study uses a generalised linear model to fit the claim probability and claim intensity data and analyses freight insurance pricing based on the freight insurance claim data of a freight platform in China.

Considering traditional pricing risk factors, this study adds two risk factors to fit the claim probability data, that is, the purchase behaviour of freight insurance customers and road density. The two variables can significantly influence the claim probability, and the model fitting outcomes obtained with the logit connection function are excellent. In addition, this study examines the model results under various distribution types for the fitting of the claim intensity data. The fitting outcomes under a gamma distribution are superior to those under the other distribution types, as measured by the Akaike information criterion.

With actual data from an online freight platform in China, this study empirically proves that a generalised linear model is superior to traditional pricing methods for freight insurance. This study constructs a generalised linear pricing model considering the unique features of the freight industry and determines that the transportation distance, cargo weight and road density have a significant influence on the claim probability and claim intensity.

Several empirical studies have proven that emerging countries are attractive destinations for Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) because of high expected returns, weak market efficiency and high growth that make them attractive destination for diversification of funds. But higher expected returns come coupled with high risk arising from political and economic instability. This study aims to compare the linear (symmetric) and non-linear (asymmetric) Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models in forecasting the volatility of top five major emerging countries among E7, that is, China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico.

The volatility of financial markets of five major emerging countries has been empirically investigated for a period of two decades from January 2000 to December 2019 using univariate volatility models including GARCH 1, 1, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (E-GARCH 1, 1) and Threshold Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (T-GARCH-1, 1) models. Further, to examine time-varying volatility, the distinctions of structural break have been captured in view of the global financial crisis of 2008. Thus, the period under the study has been segregated into pre- and post-crisis, that is, January 2001–December 2008 and January 2009–December 2019, respectively.

The findings indicate that GARCH (1, 1) model is superior to non-linear GARCH models for forecasting volatility because the effect of leverage is insignificant. China has been considered as most volatile, whereas India is volatile but positively skewed and Indonesia is the least volatile country. The results can help investors in better international diversification of their portfolio and identifying best suitable hedging opportunities.

This study can help investors to construct a more risk-adjusted returns international portfolio. Further, it adds to the scant literature available on the inconclusive debate on the choice of linear versus non-linear models to forecast market volatility.

Earlier studies related to univariate volatility models are mostly applications of the models. Only few studies have considered the robustness while applying the models. However, none of the studies to the best of the authors’ searches have considered these models for identifying the diversification opportunity among the emerging countries. Hence, this study is able to derive diversification and hedging opportunities by applying wide ranges of the statistical applications and models, that is, descriptive, correlations and univariate volatility models. It makes the study more rigorous and unique compared to the previous literature.

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models. These two model classes contain incomplete models in the sense that strongly exogeneous variables are allowed in the equations. The emphasis is on stationary models, but the considerations also include nonstationary VTR and VSTR models with cointegrated variables. Model specification, estimation and evaluation is considered, and the use of the models illustrated by macroeconomic examples from the literature.

This paper aims to explore the in-sample explanatory and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the generalized additive model for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) model in contrast to the GAM method in Munich’s residential market.

The paper explores the in-sample explanatory results via comparison of coefficients and a graphical analysis of non-linear effects. The out-of-sample forecasting accuracy focusses on 50 loops of three models excluding 10 per cent of the observations randomly. Afterwards, it obtains the predicted functional forms and predicts the remaining 10 per cent. The forecasting performance is measured via error variance, root mean squared error, mean absolute error and the mean percentage error.

The results show that the complexity of asking rents in Munich is more accurately captured by the GAMLSS approach than the GAM as shown by an outperformance in the in-sample explanatory accuracy. The results further show that the theoretical and empirical complexities do pay off in view of the increased out-of-sample forecasting power of the GAMLSS approach.

The computational requirements necessary to estimate GAMLSS models in terms of number of cores and RAM are high and might constitute one of the limiting factors for (institutional) researchers. Moreover, large and detailed knowledge on statistical inference and programming is necessary.

The usage of the GAMLSS approach would lead policymakers to better understand the local factors affecting rents. Institutional researchers, instead, would clearly aim at calibrating the forecasting accuracy of the model to better forecast rents in investment strategies. Finally, future researchers are encouraged to exploit the large potential of the GAMLSS framework and its modelling flexibility.

The GAMLSS approach is widely recognised and used by international institutions such as the World Health Organisation, the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission. This is the first study to the best of the author’s knowledge to assess the properties of the GAMLSS approach in applied real estate research from a statistical asymptotic perspective by using a unique data basis with more than 38,000 observations.

Purpose – Time-series regression models are applied to analyse transport safety data for three purposes: (1) to develop a relationship between transport accidents (or incidents) and various time-varying factors, with the aim of identifying the most important factors; (2) to develop a time-series accident model in forecasting future accidents for the given values of future time-varying factors and (3) to evaluate the impact of a system-wide policy, education or engineering intervention on accident counts. Regression models for analysing transport safety data are well established, especially in analysing cross-sectional and panel datasets. There is, however, a dearth of research relating to time-series regression models in the transport safety literature. The purpose of this chapter is to examine existing literature with the aim of identifying time-series regression models that have been employed in safety analysis in relation to wider applications. The aim is to identify time-series regression models that are applicable in analysing disaggregated accident counts.

Methodology/Approach – There are two main issues in modelling time-series accident counts: (1) a flexible approach in addressing serial autocorrelation inherent in time-series processes of accident counts and (2) the fact that the conditional distribution (conditioned on past observations and covariates) of accident counts follow a Poisson-type distribution. Various time-series regression models are explored to identify the models most suitable for analysing disaggregated time-series accident datasets. A recently developed time-series regression model – the generalised linear autoregressive and moving average (GLARMA) – has been identified as the best model to analyse safety data.

Findings – The GLARMA model was applied to a time-series dataset of airproxes (aircraft proximity) that indicate airspace safety in the United Kingdom. The aim was to evaluate the impact of an airspace intervention (i.e., the introduction of reduced vertical separation minima, RVSM) on airspace safety while controlling for other factors, such as air transport movements (ATMs) and seasonality. The results indicate that the GLARMA model is more appropriate than a generalised linear model (e.g., Poisson or Poisson-Gamma), and it has been found that the introduction of RVSM has reduced the airprox events by 15%. In addition, it was found that a 1% increase in ATMs within UK airspace would lead to a 1.83% increase in monthly airproxes in UK airspace.

Practical applications – The methodology developed in this chapter is applicable to many time-series processes of accident counts. The models recommended in this chapter could be used to identify different time-varying factors and to evaluate the effectiveness of various policy and engineering interventions on transport safety or similar data (e.g., crimes).

Originality/value of paper – The GLARMA model has not been properly explored in modelling time-series safety data. This new class of model has been applied to a dataset in evaluating the effectiveness of an intervention. The model recommended in this chapter would greatly benefit researchers and analysts working with time-series data.

This article examines the history, development, and application of the sandwich estimate of variance. In describing this estimator, we pay attention to applications that have appeared in the literature and examine the nature of the problems for which this estimator is used. We describe various adjustments to the estimate for use with small samples, and illustrate the estimator’s construction for a variety of models. Finally, we discuss interpretation of results.

The purpose of this article, starting from linear regression, was to estimate a switching regression model, nonparametric model and generalized additive model as a semi-parametric model, perform function estimation with multiple nonlinear estimation methods and conduct comparative analysis of their predictive accuracy. The theoretical importance of estimating hedonic functions using a nonlinear function form has been pointed out in ample previous research (e.g. Heckman et al. (2010).

The distinctive features of this study include not only our estimation of multiple nonlinear model function forms but also the method of verifying predictive accuracy. Using out-of-sample testing, we predicted and verified predictive accuracy by performing random sampling 500 times without replacement for 9,682 data items (the same number used in model estimation), based on data for the years before and after the year used for model estimation.

As a result of estimating multiple models, we believe that when it comes to hedonic function estimation, nonlinear models are superior based on the strength of predictive accuracy viewed in statistical terms and on graphic comparisons. However, when we examined predictive accuracy using out-of-sample testing, we found that the predictive accuracy was inferior to linear models for all nonlinear models.

In terms of the reason why the predictive accuracy was inferior, it is possible that there was an overfitting in the function estimation. Because this research was conducted for a specific period of time, it needs to be developed by expanding it to multiple periods over which the market fluctuates dynamically and conducting further analysis.

Many studies compare predictive accuracy by separating the estimation model and verification model using data at the same point in time. However, when attempting practical application for auto-appraisal systems and the like, it is necessary to estimate a model using past data and make predictions with respect to current transactions. It is possible to apply this study to auto-appraisal systems.

It is recognized that housing price fluctuations caused by the subprime crisis had a massive impact on the financial system. The findings of this study are expected to serve as a tool for measuring housing price fluctuation risks in the financial system.

While the importance of nonlinear estimation when estimating hedonic functions has been pointed out in theoretical terms, there is a noticeable lag when it comes to testing based on actual data. Given this, we believe that our verification of nonlinear estimation’s validity using multiple nonlinear models is significant not just from an academic perspective – it may also have practical applications.

Although the use of data from different levels is very common in international marketing research, the practice of employing multi‐level analysis techniques is relatively new. The paper aims to provide an application of a specific case of multi‐level modelling – where the dependent variable is dichotomous, which is often the case in marketing research (e.g. whether a consumer buys the brand or not, whether he/she is aware of the brand or not, etc.)

A hierarchical generalized linear model is employed.

Since this is a technical paper, the authors would like to emphasize the process rather than the empirical findings. In summary, the paper: provides a brief theoretical overview of Hierarchical Linear Modeling and Hierarchical Generalized Linear Modeling; illustrates the application of the method using the domains of consumers within countries and a dichotomous dependent variable; focuses on interpretation of log‐odds results; and concludes with practical issues and research implications.

The main value of this research is to demonstrate how to employ multi‐level models when the dependent variable is dichotomous. Multi‐level techniques are quite new in international marketing research, although nested data structures are relatively common in our field. This is a technical paper that guides the researchers as to how to apply and interpret the results when modeling such data with a dichotomous dependent variable.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the linear regression parameters using two alternative techniques. First technique is to apply the generalized linear model (GLM) and the second technique is the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method.

In this paper, the authors adopted the incurred claims of Egyptian non-life insurance market as a dependent variable during a 10-year period. MCMC uses Gibbs sampling to generate a sample from a posterior distribution of a linear regression to estimate the parameters of interest. However, the authors used the R package to estimate the parameters of the linear regression using the above techniques.

These procedures will guide the decision-maker for estimating the reserve and set proper investment strategy.

In this paper, the authors will estimate the parameters of a linear regression model using MCMC method via R package. Furthermore, MCMC uses Gibbs sampling to generate a sample from a posterior distribution of a linear regression to estimate parameters to predict future claims. In the same line, these procedures will guide the decision-maker for estimating the reserve and set proper investment strategy.

Purpose – This chapter provides an overview of issues related to analysing crash data characterised by excess zero responses and/or long tails and how to overcome these problems. Factors affecting excess zeros and/or long tails are discussed, as well as how they can bias the results when traditional distributions or models are used. Recently introduced multi-parameter distributions and models developed specifically for such datasets are described. The chapter is intended to guide readers on how to properly analyse crash datasets with excess zeros and long or heavy tails.

Methodology – Key references from the literature are summarised and discussed, and two examples detailing how multi-parameter distributions and models compare with the negative binomial distribution and model are presented.

Findings – In the event that the characteristics of the crash dataset cannot be changed or modified, recently introduced multi-parameter distributions and models can be used efficiently to analyse datasets characterised by excess zero responses and/or long tails. They offer a simpler way to interpret the relationship between crashes and explanatory variables, while providing better statistical performance in terms of goodness-of-fit and predictive capabilities.

Research implications – Multi-parameter models are expected to become the next series of traditional distributions and models. The research on these models is still ongoing.

Practical implications – With the advancement of computing power and Bayesian simulation methods, multi-parameter models can now be easily coded and applied to analyse crash datasets characterised by excess zero responses and/or long tails.