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Article
Publication date: 10 June 2021

Abhijat Arun Abhyankar and Harish Kumar Singla

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model with the probabilistic neural network (PNN)-based general

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to compare the predictive performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model with the probabilistic neural network (PNN)-based general regression neural network (GRNN) model of housing prices in “Pune-India.”

Design/methodology/approach

Data on 211 properties across “Pune city-India” is collected. The price per square feet is considered as a dependent variable whereas distances from important landmarks such as railway station, fort, university, airport, hospital, temple, parks, solid waste site and stadium are considered as independent variables along with a dummy for amenities. The data is analyzed using a hedonic type multivariate regression model and GRNN. The GRNN divides the entire data set into two sets, namely, training set and testing set and establishes a functional relationship between the dependent and target variables based on the probability density function of the training data (Alomair and Garrouch, 2016).

Findings

While comparing the performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model and PNN-based GRNN, the study finds that the output variable (i.e. price) has been accurately predicted by the GRNN model. All the 42 observations of the testing set are correctly classified giving an accuracy rate of 100%. According to Cortez (2015), a value close to 100% indicates that the model can correctly classify the test data set. Further, the root mean square error (RMSE) value for the final testing for the GRNN model is 0.089 compared to 0.146 for the hedonic multivariate regression model. A lesser value of RMSE indicates that the model contains smaller errors and is a better fit. Therefore, it is concluded that GRNN is a better model to predict the housing price functions. The distance from the solid waste site has the highest degree of variable senstivity impact on the housing prices (22.59%) followed by distance from university (17.78%) and fort (17.73%).

Research limitations/implications

The study being a “case” is restricted to a particular geographic location hence, the findings of the study cannot be generalized. Further, as the objective of the study is restricted to just to compare the predictive performance of two models, it is felt appropriate to restrict the scope of work by focusing only on “location specific hedonic factors,” as determinants of housing prices.

Practical implications

The study opens up a new dimension for scholars working in the field of housing prices/valuation. Authors do not rule out the use of traditional statistical techniques such as ordinary least square regression but strongly recommend that it is high time scholars use advanced statistical methods to develop the domain. The application of GRNN, artificial intelligence or other techniques such as auto regressive integrated moving average and vector auto regression modeling helps analyze the data in a much more sophisticated manner and help come up with more robust and conclusive evidence.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, it is the first case study that compares the predictive performance of the hedonic multivariate regression model with the PNN-based GRNN model for housing prices in India.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 January 2009

Mark T. Leung, Rolando Quintana and An-Sing Chen

Demand forecasting has long been an imperative tenet in production planning especially in a make-to-order environment where a typical manufacturer has to balance the…

Abstract

Demand forecasting has long been an imperative tenet in production planning especially in a make-to-order environment where a typical manufacturer has to balance the issues of holding excessive safety stocks and experiencing possible stockout. Many studies provide pragmatic paradigms to generate demand forecasts (mainly based on smoothing forecasting models.) At the same time, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been emerging as alternatives. In this chapter, we propose a two-stage forecasting approach, which combines the strengths of a neural network with a more conventional exponential smoothing model. In the first stage of this approach, a smoothing model estimates the series of demand forecasts. In the second stage, general regression neural network (GRNN) is applied to learn and then correct the errors of estimates. Our empirical study evaluates the use of different static and dynamic smoothing models and calibrates their synergies with GRNN. Various statistical tests are performed to compare the performances of the two-stage models (with error correction by neural network) and those of the original single-stage models (without error-correction by neural network). Comparisons with the single-stage GRNN are also included. Statistical results show that neural network correction leads to improvements to the forecasts made by all examined smoothing models and can outperform the single-stage GRNN in most cases. Relative performances at different levels of demand lumpiness are also examined.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-548-8

Article
Publication date: 6 April 2010

Wen‐Tsao Pan

The purpose of this paper is to propose an analysis method based on a hybrid model, which combines principal component regression (PCR) model and general regression neural

1540

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose an analysis method based on a hybrid model, which combines principal component regression (PCR) model and general regression neural network (GRNN) to solve both multicollinearity problems and non‐linear problems at the same time.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the financial ratio data of companies with stocks listed in regular stock market and over‐the‐counter stock market in Taiwan and Mainland China are collected and used as sample data. Grey relational analysis is used to rank the enterprises' operation performance, and the enterprises in Taiwan and Mainland China with business operation performance in the first place are selected and their stock information collected to perform the prediction of stock closing price.

Findings

Five indices such as the root mean square error, revision Theil inequality coefficient, mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error and coefficient of efficiency of the test result are calculated; the empirical results show that the prediction power of the hybrid model of PCR+genetic algorithm general regression neural network is obviously better than the model of PCR, GRNN and PCR+GRNN.

Originality/value

The paper adopts a hybrid model and parameter adjustment to increase prediction capability.

Details

Chinese Management Studies, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-614X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 January 2017

Wojciech Pietrowski

Diagnostics of electrical machines is a very important task. The purpose of this paper is the presentation of coupling three numerical techniques, a finite element…

Abstract

Purpose

Diagnostics of electrical machines is a very important task. The purpose of this paper is the presentation of coupling three numerical techniques, a finite element analysis, a signal analysis and an artificial neural network, in diagnostics of electrical machines. The study focused on detection of a time-varying inter-turn short-circuit in a stator winding of induction motor.

Design/methodology/approach

A finite element method is widely used for the calculation of phase current waveforms of induction machines. In the presented results, a time-varying inter-turn short-circuit of stator winding has been taken into account in the elaborated field-circuit model of machine. One of the time-varying short-circuit symptoms is a time-varying resistance of shorted circuit and consequently the waveform of phase current. A general regression neural network (GRNN) has been elaborated to find a number of shorted turns on the basis of fast Fourier transform (FFT) of phase current. The input vector of GRNN has been built on the basis of the FFT of phase current waveform. The output vector has been built upon the values of resistance of shorted circuit for respective values of shorted turns. The performance of the GRNN was compared with that of the multilayer perceptron neural network.

Findings

The GRNN can contribute to better detection of the time-varying inter-turn short-circuit in stator winding than the multilayer perceptron neural network.

Originality/value

It is argued that the proposed method based on FFT of phase current and GRNN is capable to detect a time-varying inter-turn short-circuit. The GRNN can be used in a health monitoring system as an inference module.

Details

COMPEL - The international journal for computation and mathematics in electrical and electronic engineering, vol. 36 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0332-1649

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 December 2019

Waqar Ahmed Khan, S.H. Chung, Muhammad Usman Awan and Xin Wen

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive review of the noteworthy contributions made in the area of the Feedforward neural network (FNN) to improve its…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to conduct a comprehensive review of the noteworthy contributions made in the area of the Feedforward neural network (FNN) to improve its generalization performance and convergence rate (learning speed); to identify new research directions that will help researchers to design new, simple and efficient algorithms and users to implement optimal designed FNNs for solving complex problems; and to explore the wide applications of the reviewed FNN algorithms in solving real-world management, engineering and health sciences problems and demonstrate the advantages of these algorithms in enhancing decision making for practical operations.

Design/methodology/approach

The FNN has gained much popularity during the last three decades. Therefore, the authors have focused on algorithms proposed during the last three decades. The selected databases were searched with popular keywords: “generalization performance,” “learning rate,” “overfitting” and “fixed and cascade architecture.” Combinations of the keywords were also used to get more relevant results. Duplicated articles in the databases, non-English language, and matched keywords but out of scope, were discarded.

Findings

The authors studied a total of 80 articles and classified them into six categories according to the nature of the algorithms proposed in these articles which aimed at improving the generalization performance and convergence rate of FNNs. To review and discuss all the six categories would result in the paper being too long. Therefore, the authors further divided the six categories into two parts (i.e. Part I and Part II). The current paper, Part I, investigates two categories that focus on learning algorithms (i.e. gradient learning algorithms for network training and gradient-free learning algorithms). Furthermore, the remaining four categories which mainly explore optimization techniques are reviewed in Part II (i.e. optimization algorithms for learning rate, bias and variance (underfitting and overfitting) minimization algorithms, constructive topology neural networks and metaheuristic search algorithms). For the sake of simplicity, the paper entitled “Machine learning facilitated business intelligence (Part II): Neural networks optimization techniques and applications” is referred to as Part II. This results in a division of 80 articles into 38 and 42 for Part I and Part II, respectively. After discussing the FNN algorithms with their technical merits and limitations, along with real-world management, engineering and health sciences applications for each individual category, the authors suggest seven (three in Part I and other four in Part II) new future directions which can contribute to strengthening the literature.

Research limitations/implications

The FNN contributions are numerous and cannot be covered in a single study. The authors remain focused on learning algorithms and optimization techniques, along with their application to real-world problems, proposing to improve the generalization performance and convergence rate of FNNs with the characteristics of computing optimal hyperparameters, connection weights, hidden units, selecting an appropriate network architecture rather than trial and error approaches and avoiding overfitting.

Practical implications

This study will help researchers and practitioners to deeply understand the existing algorithms merits of FNNs with limitations, research gaps, application areas and changes in research studies in the last three decades. Moreover, the user, after having in-depth knowledge by understanding the applications of algorithms in the real world, may apply appropriate FNN algorithms to get optimal results in the shortest possible time, with less effort, for their specific application area problems.

Originality/value

The existing literature surveys are limited in scope due to comparative study of the algorithms, studying algorithms application areas and focusing on specific techniques. This implies that the existing surveys are focused on studying some specific algorithms or their applications (e.g. pruning algorithms, constructive algorithms, etc.). In this work, the authors propose a comprehensive review of different categories, along with their real-world applications, that may affect FNN generalization performance and convergence rate. This makes the classification scheme novel and significant.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 120 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2007

Adel M. Hanna, Derin Ural and Gokhan Saygili

In the literature, several empirical methods can be found to predict the occurrence of nonlinear soil liquefaction in soil layers. These methods are limited to the seismic…

4488

Abstract

Purpose

In the literature, several empirical methods can be found to predict the occurrence of nonlinear soil liquefaction in soil layers. These methods are limited to the seismic conditions and the parameters used in developing the model. This paper seeks to present General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) model that addresses the collective knowledge built in simplified procedure.

Design/methodology/approach

The GRNN model incorporates the soil and seismic parameters of the region. It was developed in four phases; identification, collection, implementation, and verification. The data used consisted of 3,895 case records, mostly from the cone penetration test (CPT) results produced from the two major earthquakes that took place in Turkey and Taiwan in 1999. The case records were divided randomly into training, testing and validation datasets. Soil liquefaction decision in terms of seismic demand and seismic capacity is determined by the stress‐based method and strain‐based method, and further tested with the well‐known Chinese criteria.

Findings

The results produced by the proposed GRNN model explore effectively the complex relationship between the soil and seismic input parameters and further forecast the liquefaction potential with an overall success ratio of 94 percent. Liquefaction decisions were further validated by the SPT, confirming the viability of the SPT‐to‐CPT data conversion, which is the main limitation of most of the simplified methods.

Originality/value

The proposed GRNN model provides a viable tool to geotechnical engineers to predict seismic condition in sites susceptible to liquefaction. The model can be constantly updated when new data are available, which will improve its predictability.

Details

Engineering Computations, vol. 24 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-4401

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 April 2016

Tsui-Hua Huang, Yungho Leu and Wen-Tsao Pan

In order to avoid enterprise crisis and cause the domino effect, which influences the investment return of investors, the national economy, and financial crisis…

Abstract

Purpose

In order to avoid enterprise crisis and cause the domino effect, which influences the investment return of investors, the national economy, and financial crisis, establishing a complete set of feasible financial early warning model can help to prevent the possibility of enterprise crisis in advance, and thus, reduce the influence on society and the economy. The purpose of this paper is to develop an efficient financial crisis warning model.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) is used to adjust the coefficients of the parameters in the ZSCORE model (we call it the FOA_ZSCORE model), and the difference between the forecasted value and the real target value is calculated. Afterward, the generalized regressive neural network (GRNN model), with optimized spread by FOA (we call it FOA_GRNN model), is used to forecast the difference to promote the forecasting accuracy. Various models, including ZSCORE, FOA_ZSCORE, FOA_ZSCORE+GRNN, and FOA_ZSCORE+FOA_GRNN, are trained and tested. Finally, different models are compared based on their prediction accuracies and ROC curves. Furthermore, more appropriate parameters, which are different from the parameters in the original ZSCORE model, are selected by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method.

Findings

The hybrid model of the FOA_ZSCORE together with the FOA_GRNN offers the highest prediction accuracy, compared to other models; the MARS can be used to select more appropriate parameters to further improve the performance of the prediction models.

Originality/value

This paper proposes a hybrid model, FOA_ZSCORE+FOA_GRNN which offers better performance than the original ZSCORE model.

Article
Publication date: 10 January 2020

Waqar Ahmed Khan, S.H. Chung, Muhammad Usman Awan and Xin Wen

The purpose of this paper is three-fold: to review the categories explaining mainly optimization algorithms (techniques) in that needed to improve the generalization…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is three-fold: to review the categories explaining mainly optimization algorithms (techniques) in that needed to improve the generalization performance and learning speed of the Feedforward Neural Network (FNN); to discover the change in research trends by analyzing all six categories (i.e. gradient learning algorithms for network training, gradient free learning algorithms, optimization algorithms for learning rate, bias and variance (underfitting and overfitting) minimization algorithms, constructive topology neural networks, metaheuristic search algorithms) collectively; and recommend new research directions for researchers and facilitate users to understand algorithms real-world applications in solving complex management, engineering and health sciences problems.

Design/methodology/approach

The FNN has gained much attention from researchers to make a more informed decision in the last few decades. The literature survey is focused on the learning algorithms and the optimization techniques proposed in the last three decades. This paper (Part II) is an extension of Part I. For the sake of simplicity, the paper entitled “Machine learning facilitated business intelligence (Part I): Neural networks learning algorithms and applications” is referred to as Part I. To make the study consistent with Part I, the approach and survey methodology in this paper are kept similar to those in Part I.

Findings

Combining the work performed in Part I, the authors studied a total of 80 articles through popular keywords searching. The FNN learning algorithms and optimization techniques identified in the selected literature are classified into six categories based on their problem identification, mathematical model, technical reasoning and proposed solution. Previously, in Part I, the two categories focusing on the learning algorithms (i.e. gradient learning algorithms for network training, gradient free learning algorithms) are reviewed with their real-world applications in management, engineering, and health sciences. Therefore, in the current paper, Part II, the remaining four categories, exploring optimization techniques (i.e. optimization algorithms for learning rate, bias and variance (underfitting and overfitting) minimization algorithms, constructive topology neural networks, metaheuristic search algorithms) are studied in detail. The algorithm explanation is made enriched by discussing their technical merits, limitations, and applications in their respective categories. Finally, the authors recommend future new research directions which can contribute to strengthening the literature.

Research limitations/implications

The FNN contributions are rapidly increasing because of its ability to make reliably informed decisions. Like learning algorithms, reviewed in Part I, the focus is to enrich the comprehensive study by reviewing remaining categories focusing on the optimization techniques. However, future efforts may be needed to incorporate other algorithms into identified six categories or suggest new category to continuously monitor the shift in the research trends.

Practical implications

The authors studied the shift in research trend for three decades by collectively analyzing the learning algorithms and optimization techniques with their applications. This may help researchers to identify future research gaps to improve the generalization performance and learning speed, and user to understand the applications areas of the FNN. For instance, research contribution in FNN in the last three decades has changed from complex gradient-based algorithms to gradient free algorithms, trial and error hidden units fixed topology approach to cascade topology, hyperparameters initial guess to analytically calculation and converging algorithms at a global minimum rather than the local minimum.

Originality/value

The existing literature surveys include comparative study of the algorithms, identifying algorithms application areas and focusing on specific techniques in that it may not be able to identify algorithms categories, a shift in research trends over time, application area frequently analyzed, common research gaps and collective future directions. Part I and II attempts to overcome the existing literature surveys limitations by classifying articles into six categories covering a wide range of algorithm proposed to improve the FNN generalization performance and convergence rate. The classification of algorithms into six categories helps to analyze the shift in research trend which makes the classification scheme significant and innovative.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 120 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 January 2020

Renze Zhou, Zhiguo Xing, Haidou Wang, Zhongyu Piao, Yanfei Huang, Weiling Guo and Runbo Ma

With the development of deep learning-based analytical techniques, increased research has focused on fatigue data analysis methods based on deep learning, which are…

262

Abstract

Purpose

With the development of deep learning-based analytical techniques, increased research has focused on fatigue data analysis methods based on deep learning, which are gaining in popularity. However, the application of deep neural networks in the material science domain is mainly inhibited by data availability. In this paper, to overcome the difficulty of multifactor fatigue life prediction with small data sets,

Design/methodology/approach

A multiple neural network ensemble (MNNE) is used, and an MNNE with a general and flexible explicit function is developed to accurately quantify the complicated relationships hidden in multivariable data sets. Moreover, a variational autoencoder-based data generator is trained with small sample sets to expand the size of the training data set. A comparative study involving the proposed method and traditional models is performed. In addition, a filtering rule based on the R2 score is proposed and applied in the training process of the MNNE, and this approach has a beneficial effect on the prediction accuracy and generalization ability.

Findings

A comparative study involving the proposed method and traditional models is performed. The comparative experiment confirms that the use of hybrid data can improve the accuracy and generalization ability of the deep neural network and that the MNNE outperforms support vector machines, multilayer perceptron and deep neural network models based on the goodness of fit and robustness in the small sample case.

Practical implications

The experimental results imply that the proposed algorithm is a sophisticated and promising multivariate method for predicting the contact fatigue life of a coating when data availability is limited.

Originality/value

A data generated model based on variational autoencoder was used to make up lack of data. An MNNE method was proposed to apply in the small data case of fatigue life prediction.

Details

Anti-Corrosion Methods and Materials, vol. 67 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0003-5599

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 November 2022

Kamal Pandey and Bhaskar Basu

Building energy management systems use important information from indoor room temperature (IRT) forecasting to predict daily loads within smart buildings. IRT forecasting…

Abstract

Purpose

Building energy management systems use important information from indoor room temperature (IRT) forecasting to predict daily loads within smart buildings. IRT forecasting is a complex and challenging task, especially when energy demands are exponentially rising. The purpose of this paper is to review the relevant literature on indoor temperature forecasting in the past two decades and draw inferences on important methodologies with influencing variables and offer future directions.

Design/methodology/approach

The motivation for this work is based on the research work done in the field of intelligent buildings and energy related sector. The focus of this study is based on past literature on forecasting models and methodologies related to IRT forecasting for building energy management, with an emphasis on data-driven models (statistical and machine learning models). The methodology adopted here includes review of several journals, conference papers, reference books and PhD theses. Selected forecasting methodologies have been reviewed for indoor temperature forecasting contributing to building energy consumption. The models reviewed here have been earmarked for their benefits, limitations, location of study, accuracy along with the identification of influencing variables.

Findings

The findings are based on 62 studies where certain accuracy metrics and influencing explanatory variables have been reviewed. Linear models have been found to show explanatory relationships between the variables. Nonlinear models are found to have better accuracy than linear models. Moreover, IRT profiles can be modeled with enhanced accuracy and generalizability through hybrid models. Although deep learning models are found to have better performance for this study.

Research limitations/implications

This is accuracy-based study of data-driven models. Their run-time performance and cost implications review and review of physical, thermal and simulation models is future scope.

Originality/value

Despite the earlier work conducted in this field, there is a lack of organized and comprehensive evaluation of peer reviewed forecasting methodologies. Indoor temperature depends on various influencing explanatory variables which poses a research challenge for researchers to develop suitable predictive model. This paper presents a critical review of selected forecasting methodologies and provides a list of important methodologies along with influencing variables, which can help future researchers in the field of building energy management sector. The forecasting methods presented here can help to determine appropriate heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems for buildings.

Details

Facilities , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-2772

Keywords

1 – 10 of over 3000