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Article

Joseph Voros

The purpose of this paper is two‐fold. First, to describe in detail a particular sub‐class of powerful prospective methods based on the method of “morphological analysis

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is two‐fold. First, to describe in detail a particular sub‐class of powerful prospective methods based on the method of “morphological analysis”. And second, to extend their use to create a basis for strengthening strategic analysis and policy development.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines the history and use of morphological methods in foresight work, and briefly describes three main “lineages” currently in use, and proposes some extensions to models of practice.

Findings

Recent research in cognitive psychology suggests that requiring a detailed and systematic examination of future possibilities before a decision is made leads to more effective assessments of futures. Morphological methods, by design and construction, are perfectly suited to this, and so can form an exceptionally strong basis for thinking systematically about the future.

Practical implications

The paper also describes how to go about designing a foresighting capacity based on a systematic evaluation of future systemic contexts, as well as discussing what aspects of the external environment to include in robust competitive intelligence, strategic monitoring, environmental scanning, and “horizon scanning” activities.

Originality/value

The paper proposes some extensions to existing practice and describes some ways to tie the development of a strategic meta‐language to clearly‐targeted intelligence scanning. This paper should be of interest to anyone involved in trying to strengthen strategy development, policy planning or intelligence analysis.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article

Noluxolo Gcaza, Rossouw von Solms, Marthie M. Grobler and Joey Jansen van Vuuren

The purpose of this paper is to define and delineate cyber security culture. Cyber security has been a concern for many years. In an effort to mitigate the cyber security…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to define and delineate cyber security culture. Cyber security has been a concern for many years. In an effort to mitigate the cyber security risks, technology-centred measures were deemed to be the ultimate solution. Nowadays, however, it is accepted that the process of cyber security requires much more than mere technical controls. On the contrary, it now demands a human-centred approach, including a cyber security culture. Although the role of cultivating a culture in pursuing cyber security is well appreciated, research focusing intensely on cyber security culture is still in its infancy. Additionally, knowledge on the subject is not clearly bounded and defined.

Design/methodology/approach

General morphological analysis (GMA) is used to define, structure and analyse the cyber security environment culture.

Findings

This paper identifies the most important variables in cultivating a cyber security culture.

Research implications

The delineation of the national cyber security domain will contribute to the relatively new domain of cyber security culture. They contribute to the research community by means of promoting a shared and common understanding of terms. It is a step in the right direction towards eliminating the ambiguity of domain assumptions.

Practical implications

Practically, the study can assist developing nations in constructing strategies that addresses the key factors that need to be apparent in lieu to cultivating its envisaged national culture of cyber security. Additionally, the GMA will contribute to the development of solutions or means that do not overlook interrelations of such factors.

Originality/value

Delineating and defining the cyber security culture domain more precisely could greatly contribute to realizing the elements that collectively play a role in cultivating such a culture for a national perspective.

Details

Information & Computer Security, vol. 25 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2056-4961

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Article

Sahar Kousari, Sepehr Ghazinoory and Fatemeh Saghafi

This study aims to investigate the probable future scenarios of nanotechnology development and their implications in Iran considering anticipatory knowledge, suitable…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the probable future scenarios of nanotechnology development and their implications in Iran considering anticipatory knowledge, suitable methodology and integral perspective.

Design/methodology/approach

The study used framework morphology, a method for creating scenarios and their implications developed by the Delphi method that covers the consistent morphological space and make contact with previous scenario work, as well as the current and projected research and policy situation in Iran.

Findings

The study identified five scenarios, namely, “no nano” scenario headlines picturing a future society that there is no impact of nanotechnology in it. The “nano flow” scenario and indicates prospering nanotechnology in the full sides of the market. The “no nano contact” scenario suspecting that apart from the already banned nanotechnological applications in food, cosmetics, clothes and agricultural applications might bear equally unacceptable risks. The “hidden nano” scenario by pointing out the effects of accidents and crimes traced back to intended or unintended misuse of nanotechnological applications. Then finally, the “red nano” scenario illustration headlines the prospects of medical, energy system efficiency and nanotechnological applications in information and communication technologies.

Practical implications

The policymakers could use the scenarios and their implications as part of its considerations in strategic planning.

Originality/value

This paper represents the first time that a framework for societal implications has been applied to nanotechnology development topic in Iran.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article

Sverre Moe and Jari Kaivo-oja

The purpose of the paper is to present three different contributions to a general model theory which the authors think as relevant to systems research based on systems…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to present three different contributions to a general model theory which the authors think as relevant to systems research based on systems theory, cybernetics and constructivism. This also implies that the three contributions are shown to be of use both in the study of systems that operate by models, as well as in the practice of designing models.

Design/methodology/approach

The text is conceptual and mainly of a descriptive and referring character. Besides the sections on the three contributions to a model theory, the authors have inserted sections that relate them to systems theory. This is also achieved by the help of some simple models.

Findings

The paper also points to models as important instruments in constructing and selecting information to observing systems, and the authors hope that the text can be helpful in developing better knowledge of how models work.

Originality/value

The text is about observing systems that observe by models, and that is probably a somewhat new perspective. It is hoped that the paper can be inspiring to further studies on this matter.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 47 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article

Roey Tzezana

The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework to thinking and creating scenarios about future crimes and terror attacks relying on the Internet of Things (IoT), and…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework to thinking and creating scenarios about future crimes and terror attacks relying on the Internet of Things (IoT), and to present a crowdsourcing research based on this thinking, which resulted in both high- and low-probability scenarios with dramatic impact.

Design/methodology/approach

The research relies on general morphological analysis for deconstructing wicked problems into core components, and on crowdsourcing 50 experts on Wikistrat’s commercial platform, allowing them to suggest core components, rank them by importance and develop scenarios together. This methodology allowed a wider view than usual, and allowed the experts to examine unorthodox combination of components, leading to the creation of wild-card scenarios.

Findings

Analysis of both the core components and the resulting scenarios indicates that the IoT is set to have a dramatic role in crime and terror attacks in the near future. High-impact high-probability scenarios include attacks on power plants, cyber wallets and personal assistants. High-impact low-probability scenarios include terrorist attacks by environmentalist groups, accidental attacks conducted by immature pranksters and having a computer worm propagating in a low-security but critical facility like a hospital.

Originality/value

This paper brings a standardized method which can be used to examine complex events like crime and terror attacks using a disruptive and emerging technology. The results can be used by practitioners to further study the issue and develop many other scenarios more tailored to their needs. The scenarios presented in this paper can also be of value to security bodies who wish to be better prepared for the future.

Details

foresight, vol. 19 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article

J. Ajith Kumar and L.S. Ganesh

The purpose of this paper is to present and describe a morphology of the research literature on knowledge transfer in organizations.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present and describe a morphology of the research literature on knowledge transfer in organizations.

Design/methodology/approach

This morphology, which is a comprehensive framework characterizing the knowledge transfer literature in terms of dimensions and options, was developed by an extensive scanning of the pertinent literature.

Findings

Eight dimensions were found suitable to characterize the knowledge transfer research literature. Corresponding to each dimension, two to six options were found.

Research limitations/implications

The morphology demonstrates the extensiveness and variety of knowledge transfer research. To academics, the morphology can serve as a map of the knowledge transfer territory. Using the morphology, researchers can easily assess how an existing study fits in with the entire body of knowledge transfer research. Secondly, they can discern areas that have received less attention in comparison to others and thus identify gaps they may wish to address in a new study. KM practitioners can use the morphology to assess their knowledge transfer strategies in terms of the dimensions it currently has/lacks, and take appropriate decisions.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, a morphological approach has not been attempted so far to characterize KM research literature. The approach used can be applied to other areas of management as well, for similar purposes.

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 13 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

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Article

David Manuel Judt and Craig Lawson

The purpose of this paper is to present a new computational framework to address future preliminary design needs for aircraft subsystems. The ability to investigate…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present a new computational framework to address future preliminary design needs for aircraft subsystems. The ability to investigate multiple candidate technologies forming subsystem architectures is enabled with the provision of automated architecture generation, analysis and optimization. Main focus lies with a demonstration of the frameworks workings, as well as the optimizers performance with a typical form of application problem.

Design/methodology/approach

The core aspects involve a functional decomposition, coupled with a synergistic mission performance analysis on the aircraft, architecture and component levels. This may be followed by a complete enumeration of architectures, combined with a user defined technology filtering and concept ranking procedure. In addition, a hybrid heuristic optimizer, based on ant systems optimization and a genetic algorithm, is employed to produce optimal architectures in both component composition and design parameters. The optimizer is tested on a generic architecture design problem combined with modified Griewank and parabolic functions for the continuous space.

Findings

Insights from the generalized application problem show consistent rediscovery of the optimal architectures with the optimizer, as compared to a full problem enumeration. In addition multi-objective optimization reveals a Pareto front with differences in component composition as well as continuous parameters.

Research limitations/implications

This paper demonstrates the frameworks application on a generalized test problem only. Further publication will consider real engineering design problems.

Originality/value

The paper addresses the need for future conceptual design methods of complex systems to consider a mixed concept space of both discrete and continuous nature via automated methods.

Details

Engineering Computations, vol. 33 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0264-4401

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Article

Thawani Mpatama Sanjika and Carel Nicolaas Bezuidenhout

The purpose of this paper is to develop and demonstrate a driving factors-based approach for identifying and ranking performance indicators in integrated sugarcane supply…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop and demonstrate a driving factors-based approach for identifying and ranking performance indicators in integrated sugarcane supply and processing systems (ISSPSs) on an on-going basis.

Design/methodology/approach

The research included a literature review, development of an approach, testing of the approach in four ISSPSs and checking the tests’ results for consistency with Southern Africa sugar industry benchmarks and external knowledge of the four ISSPSs.

Findings

The research offers a systematic approach for identifying and ranking performance indicators based on existing driving factors in ISSPSs. Results obtained from the application of the approach in four ISSPSs are consistent with industry benchmarks and external knowledge of the ISSPSs.

Research limitations/implications

The approach was tested in only four ISSPSs. It is recommended that the approach should be tested in other complex systems to further validate its effectiveness. It is further recommended that the approach should be systematically compared with existing approaches that are used for identifying and ranking performance indicators.

Originality/value

This research is of academic value and of practical value to practitioners in ISSPSs. The research blends knowledge from network theory and cause-and-effect analysis to come up with a systematic approach for identifying and ranking performance indicators in ISSPSs on an on-going basis. Further, the approach identifies and ranks performance indicators as part of one data set. This approach has never, to the authors’ knowledge, been used in agro-industry before.

Details

British Food Journal, vol. 117 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0007-070X

Keywords

Content available
Article

Seyed Mehdi Zahraei, Jude Herijadi Kurniawan and Lynette Cheah

The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and…

Abstract

Purpose

The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities.

Design/methodology/approach

To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders.

Findings

Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government.

Originality/value

As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article

Sissel Haugdal Jore, Inger-Lise Førland Utland and Victoria Hell Vatnamo

Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex.

Findings

Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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