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One of the biggest problems in an R&D process is the acquisition of information about the structure dynamic loads, which are needed to reliably prove the structure's durability. This paper aims to present an innovative method for simulating stationary Gaussian random processes, which is based on the conditional probability density function (PDF) approach.

The basic information on the structure dynamic loads is first obtained by short‐duration measurements on prototypes or the structure itself. These data are then used to simulate the expected structure load states during operations. A theoretical background is presented first, which is followed by the application of the method.

The results show that the spectral characteristics of the original and simulated Gaussian random processes are very similar, if the influential range of the conditional PDF is properly chosen.

The method can be applied for simulating random loads of structures, and excitations of dynamic systems, for example.

The innovative simulation approach could be helpful to engineers in the early phases of the new product development process.

Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions in bankruptcies. They have also been found in numerous insurance applications such as catastrophic insurance claims and in value‐at‐risk measures employed by risk managers. Financial applications include:

This paper aims to provide a comprehensive review of uncertainty quantification methods supported by evidence-based comparison studies. Uncertainties are widely encountered in engineering practice, arising from such diverse sources as heterogeneity of materials, variability in measurement, lack of data and ambiguity in knowledge. Academia and industries have long been researching for uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to quantitatively account for the effects of various input uncertainties on the system response. Despite the rich literature of relevant research, UQ is not an easy subject for novice researchers/practitioners, where many different methods and techniques coexist with inconsistent input/output requirements and analysis schemes.

This confusing status significantly hampers the research progress and practical application of UQ methods in engineering. In the context of engineering analysis, the research efforts of UQ are most focused in two largely separate research fields: structural reliability analysis (SRA) and stochastic finite element method (SFEM). This paper provides a state-of-the-art review of SRA and SFEM, covering both technology and application aspects. Moreover, unlike standard survey papers that focus primarily on description and explanation, a thorough and rigorous comparative study is performed to test all UQ methods reviewed in the paper on a common set of reprehensive examples.

Over 20 uncertainty quantification methods in the fields of structural reliability analysis and stochastic finite element methods are reviewed and rigorously tested on carefully designed numerical examples. They include FORM/SORM, importance sampling, subset simulation, response surface method, surrogate methods, polynomial chaos expansion, perturbation method, stochastic collocation method, etc. The review and comparison tests comment and conclude not only on accuracy and efficiency of each method but also their applicability in different types of uncertainty propagation problems.

The research fields of structural reliability analysis and stochastic finite element methods have largely been developed separately, although both tackle uncertainty quantification in engineering problems. For the first time, all major uncertainty quantification methods in both fields are reviewed and rigorously tested on a common set of examples. Critical opinions and concluding remarks are drawn from the rigorous comparative study, providing objective evidence-based information for further research and practical applications.

It is well known that the probability distribution of stock returns is non-Gaussian. The tails of the distribution are too “fat,” meaning that extreme price movements, such as stock market crashes, occur more often than predicted given a Gaussian model. Numerous studies have attempted to characterize and explain the fat-tailed property of returns. This is because understanding the probability of extreme price movements is important for risk management and option pricing. In spite of this work, there is still no accepted theoretical explanation. In this chapter, we use a large collection of data from three different stock markets to show that slow fluctuations in the volatility (i.e., the size of return increments), coupled with a Gaussian random process, produce the non-Gaussian and stable shape of the return distribution. Furthermore, because the statistical features of volatility are similar across stocks, we show that their return distributions collapse onto one universal curve. Volatility fluctuations influence the pricing of derivative instruments, and we discuss the implications of our findings for the pricing of options.

In marine structures, the long‐term non‐stationary response of flexible lines, due to random environmental loads, may be regarded as successive short‐term stationary processes in which current, wind and ocean wave conditions remain constant. The power spectrum of each stationary process can be characterized by its linear and non‐linear energy components: the linear energy defines a Gaussian process, and the additional nonlinear energy characterizes a non‐Gaussian process. Within this scope, digital bispectral analysis has enabled one to describe non‐linear stationary response of flexible lines in the frequency domain, so that the complex coefficients of a quadratic model, in the frequency domain, can be estimated. The real and symmetrical matrix constructed from these coefficients has eigenvalues and eigenvectors useful to describe the characteristic function of the response from where the probability density function can be obtained by using a fast Fourier transform algorithm. The bases of the method presented here have already been treated, in a similar but pure algebraic method, to obtain the asymptotic probability function applicable to the response of non‐linear systems in closed form.

This review aims to give a critical view of the wheel/rail high frequency vibration-induced vibration fatigue in railway bogie.

Vibration fatigue of railway bogie arising from the wheel/rail high frequency vibration has become the main concern of railway operators. Previous reviews usually focused on the formation mechanism of wheel/rail high frequency vibration. This paper thus gives a critical review of the vibration fatigue of railway bogie owing to the short-pitch irregularities-induced high frequency vibration, including a brief introduction of short-pitch irregularities, associated high frequency vibration in railway bogie, typical vibration fatigue failure cases of railway bogie and methodologies used for the assessment of vibration fatigue and research gaps.

The results showed that the resulting excitation frequencies of short-pitch irregularity vary substantially due to different track types and formation mechanisms. The axle box-mounted components are much more vulnerable to vibration fatigue compared with other components. The wheel polygonal wear and rail corrugation-induced high frequency vibration is the main driving force of fatigue failure, and the fatigue crack usually initiates from the defect of the weld seam. Vibration spectrum for attachments of railway bogie defined in the standard underestimates the vibration level arising from the short-pitch irregularities. The current investigations on vibration fatigue mainly focus on the methods to improve the accuracy of fatigue damage assessment, and a systematical design method for vibration fatigue remains a huge gap to improve the survival probability when the rail vehicle is subjected to vibration fatigue.

The research can facilitate the development of a new methodology to improve the fatigue life of railway vehicles when subjected to wheel/rail high frequency vibration.

The variance targeting estimator (VTE) for generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) processes has been proposed as a computationally simpler and misspecification-robust alternative to the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE). In this paper we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the VTE when the stationary distribution of the GARCH process has infinite fourth moment. Existing studies of historical asset returns indicate that this may be a case of empirical relevance. Under suitable technical conditions, we establish a stable limit theory for the VTE, with the rate of convergence determined by the tails of the stationary distribution. This rate is slower than that achieved by the QMLE. The limit distribution of the VTE is nondegenerate but singular. We investigate the use of subsampling techniques for inference, but find that finite sample performance is poor in empirically relevant scenarios.

According to relevant research, non-uniform speed has a significant impact on the vehicle-track systems. Up to now, research work on it is still very limited. In this paper, the PEM is adopted to further transform it into a deterministic process to solve the vehicle’s problem of running at a non-uniform speed.

The multi-body vehicle model has 10 degrees of freedom and the track is regarded as a finite long beam supported by lumped sleepers and ballast blocks. They are connected via linear Hertz springs. The vertical track irregularity is a Gaussian stationary process in the space domain. It is transformed into a uniformly modulated nonstationary random process in the time domain with respect to the non-uniform vehicle speed. By solving the equation of motion of the coupled vehicle-track system with the pseudo-excitation method, the pseudo-response and consequently the power spectral density and the standard deviation of the structural response can be obtained.

Two kinds of vehicle braking programs are taken in the numerical example and some beneficial conclusions are drawn.

The pseudo-excitation method (PEM) was used to perform the random vibration analysis of a coupled non-uniform speed vehicle-track system. Transforming the track irregularity into a uniformly modulated nonstationary random process in time domain with respect to the non-uniform vehicle speed was undertaken. The pseudo-response of the coupled system is solved by applying the Newmark algorithm with constant space integral steps. The random vibration transfer mechanism of the coupled system is fully discussed.

The authors aim to demonstrate the importance of taking into account “mean reversion” in asset prices and show that this type of modeling leads to a high share of equities in pension funds’ asset allocations.

First, the authors will study the long-run statistical characteristics of selected financial assets during the 1895-2011 period. Such an analysis corroborates the fact that, for long holding periods, equities exhibit lower risk than other asset classes. Moreover, they will provide empirical evidence that stock market returns are negatively skewed in the short term and show that this negative skewness vanishes over longer time horizons. Both these characteristics favor the use of a semi-parametric methodology.

This empirical study led to two major findings. First, the authors noticed that the distribution of stock returns is negatively skewed over short time horizons. Second, they observed that the fat-tailed shape of the returns distribution disappears for time periods longer than five years. Finally, they demonstrated that stock returns exhibit “mean-reversion”. Consequently, the optimization program should not only take into account the non-Gaussian nature of returns in the short run but also incorporate the speed at which volatility “mean reverts” to its long-run mean.

To simulate portfolio allocation, the authors used a Cornish–Fisher Value-at-Risk criterion with the advantage of providing an allocation that is independent of the saver’s preferences parameters. A backtesting analysis including a calculation of replacement rates shows a clear dominance of the “non-Gaussian” strategy because the retirement outcomes under such a strategy would be positively affected.