Search results

The purpose of this paper is to outline a version of SinoTERM, a multi‐regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of China that has been updated and disaggregated further to enhance the agricultural detail. A version of the model is publicly available and will be useful to CGE modelers studying Chinese agricultural issues (www.monash.edu.au/policy/sinoterm.htm).

The paper outlines data sources for building SinoTERM. It contains a CGE application to agriculture in China. Unlike the national input‐output table published by the National Bureau of Statistics, the master database of SinoTERM contains many agricultural sectors.

CGE models that represent a nation as a single economy may offer rich insights into winners and losers from particular policy scenarios. Multi‐regional analysis takes this a step further by comparing outcomes for regions in which particular industries are a relatively large part of the economy.

This paper builds on the first SinoTERM paper in several ways. First, the database is disaggregated further to represent tea, sugar cane and silkworms as individual sectors in the CGE database. Second, given the extraordinary economic growth in China, the national and regional database has been updated to 2006 using data from the 2007 yearbook. Third, the paper contains an application to agriculture: it examines the impacts of productivity growth in different agricultural sectors in China.

The regional CGE model used in this application could be used to explore many other policy issues concerning agriculture in China.

Market integration in China is still progressing, while the border effects of trade among regions still exist. The question of whether eliminating or weakening regional bias can promote of China's agricultural trade still remains an important issue. This paper analyzes the impact of regional bias on China's agricultural trade.

This paper constructs a pure exchange computable general equilibrium model of nine regions and three sectors, and analyzes the impact of regional bias on China's regional agricultural trade; Comparing the differences of regional bias on China's inter-regional and external agricultural trade, the paper especially analyzes the impact of the agricultural imports and exports in eight regions of China.

The results show that regional bias has had substantial impacts on China's agricultural trade. Elimination of regional bias would therefore increase China's agricultural exports and imports by factors of 1.32 and 1.63, respectively while its agricultural trade deficit would increase by 84%. Inter-regional agricultural trade in China would increase by 3.53 times. With the elimination of regional bias, the Northern coastal, Central and Northwestern regions would have the largest increase in inter-regional agricultural trade. Unlike the Northern coastal region, inter-regional agricultural import in the Central and Northwestern regions tends to be greater than inter-regional agricultural exports.

This paper thus aims to fill existing gap in investigating the impacts of regional bias on China's agricultural trade. Firstly, the model proposed in this paper does not only consider the linkage between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, but also the inter-regional agricultural trade linkages of the different regions in China. Secondly, the authors decompose home bias into national and regional biases and assess how regional bias affects agricultural trade of the various regions of China.

This paper aims to present and discuss some quantitative results obtained in assessing the economic impact of variations in tourism flows, induced by climate change, for some Mediterranean countries.

Estimates by a regional climate model are used to build a tourism climate index, which indicates the suitability of climate, in certain locations, for general outdoor activities. As climate change is expected to affect a number of variables like temperature, wind and precipitation, it will have consequences on the degree of attractiveness of touristic destinations. The authors estimate the macroeconomic consequences of changing tourism flows by means of a computable general equilibrium model.

The authors found that more incoming tourists will increase income and welfare, but this phenomenon will also induce a change in the productive structure, with a decline in agriculture and manufacturing, partially compensated by an expansion of service industries. The authors found that, in most countries, the decline in agriculture entails a lower demand for water, counteracting the additional demand for water coming from tourists and bringing about a lower water consumption overall.

A great deal of uncertainty affects, in particular: estimates of future climate conditions, especially for variables different from temperature, the relationship between climate and tourist demand, and its interaction with socio-economic variables. This also depends on the reliability of the TCI index as an indicator of climate suitability for tourism, on its application to spatially and temporally aggregated data, on the degree of responsiveness of tourism demand to variations in the TCI. Furthermore, as the authors followed here a single region approach, the authors were not able to consider in the estimates the impact of climate change on the global tourism industry. Nonetheless, the authors believe that a quantitative analysis like the one presented here is not without scope. First, it provides an order of magnitude for the impact of climate change on tourism and the national economy. Second, it allows to assess systemic and second-order effects, which are especially relevant in this context and, moreover, appear to be sufficiently robust to alternative model specifications. In other words, the value added of this study does not lie in the specific figures obtained by numerical computations, but on the broader picture emerging from the overall exercise.

To the authors' knowledge, this is the first study in which, by assessing higher tourism attractiveness into a general equilibrium framework, the effect described above is detected and highlighted.

This paper aims to investigate the impacts of climate change on the People's Republic of China's (PRC) grain output using rural household survey data. The paper highlights the regional differences of impacts by estimating output elasticities (with respect to climate change) for different grain crops and different regions.

The paper uses production function to investigate the responses of grain output to climate variables as well as other traditional input variables. The use of production function approach allows us to do away with the competitive land market assumption as required in the Ricardian approach. The paper will use interaction terms of climate variables and regional dummies to capture the regional differences of climate change impact on grain crops.

The results indicate that the overall negative climate impacts on the PRC's grain output range from −0.31 to −2.69 percent in 2030 and from −1.93 to −3.07 percent in 2050, under different emission scenarios. The impacts, however, differ substantially for different grain crops and different regions.

This paper addresses the limitations of existing literature by highlighting regional differences and crop varieties using the most recent nationwide rural household survey data. The results indicate pronounced regional differences and crop differences in the impacts of climate changes on PRC's grain output.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a modelling approach that enables the analysis of long-term food security policies. Specifically, the authors explore the effect of China’s agricultural domestic support on its agricultural and food market by also considering the impact of incomplete price transmission.

The authors extend the standard Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) modelling framework. First, the authors incorporate incomplete price transmission into the GTAP model by generating tariff-equivalent price transmission elasticities. Second, the authors improve the current representation of China’s agricultural domestic support in the GTAP model and the underlying database by considering the production requirements and the trade-distorting effect of different policy instruments. Running a set of simulations, the authors examine first how the incorporation of incomplete price transmission affects the model’s results and second how increased agricultural domestic support affects China’s agricultural and food market accounting for incomplete price transmission.

Considering incomplete price transmission mitigates the domestic price increases as responses to high international agricultural prices, which also lead to an increase in China’s trade deficit and prohibits net food sellers from receiving high prices. In the long term, an increase in China’s agricultural domestic support to its World Trade Organisation de minimis commitment level would increase domestic agricultural production and reduce its demand pressure on the international market.

This paper contributes to the literature by examining the impact of increased agricultural domestic support on the domestic market while innovatively accounting for incomplete food price transmission. The authors combine econometric estimated price transmission elasticities and an extended GTAP framework to underscore the importance of enhancing the model’s ability in accounting for incomplete price transmission when analysing the impact of agricultural policies.

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the economic impact of a rising US trade protectionism on the economies of China, Japan, South Korea and the ASEAN countries and draw out some policy and strategic implications for the USA and East Asia.

The authors employ a computable general equilibrium approach supplemented with qualitative analyses based on empirical evidence.

An increase in US import tariffs would result in economic losses for the USA and the corresponding country or region to which the import tariff increase is applied. An increase in US import tariffs for Chinese goods alone would not have any spillover effects on other East Asian countries. But, an imposition of a border adjustment tax (BAT) for all countries and for all products would actually boost US economic growth. Advanced economies would enjoy GDP increases, but China, Korea and the ASEAN countries would face an economic loss in a longer term period, although they would enjoy some growth in the short term. However, when the BAT only applies to a specific East Asian country, USA would suffer an economic loss, with the exception of a BAT specifically targeted at the ASEAN countries. ASEAN countries would not experience any economic loss under all scenarios except in the case of import tariffs specifically targeted at ASEAN.

From the US perspective, it is beneficial to adopt a BAT for all countries and across the board. Under this arrangement, there would be an economic loss for China, Korea and the ASEAN countries in the longer term. An increase in US trade protectionism would only push the East Asian countries towards deeper economic integration, with serious implications for global pattern of trade and investment.

The existing literature on the likely economic impact of US trade protectionism on East Asia is very scarce and based on surveys and subjective speculations. This study uses a quantitative method based on empirical evidence.

This study predicts the growth of Africa's international trade from 2011 to 2040 by accounting for the uncertainties in the continent.

This study applies a scenario planning method (SPM) to develop multiple future scenarios considering uncertainties inherent in African socio-economies related to the success or failure of economic and industrial policies (EIPs) and economic corridor development policies (ECDPs). Subsequently, based on these future scenarios, the growth of African international trade from 2011 to 2040 is predicted using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model.

The predictions reveal that if the EIPs and the ECDPs are successfully implemented, Africa, as a whole, will experience a significant increase in trade, estimated at US$ 1,905 billion and US$ 1,599 billion for exports and imports, respectively, compared to the scenario in which they fail. However, the effects vary greatly by country or region and industrial sector. The results also show that African intra-regional trade is rapidly expanding and is the second-largest after trade with Europe followed by other continents.

SPM, which allows us to reflect the uncertainties affecting African international trade prediction, is applied to build the future scenarios. The study comprehensively predicts African future international trade by setting a wide range of exogenous variables and parameters (input conditions for the GTAP model) related to EIPs and ECDPs.

The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model has been used to claim that genetically modified (GM) crops have substantial positive welfare potential for sub‐Saharan Africa. The purpose of this paper is to critically examine these claims with a view to seeing if this type of modelling provides any meaningful basis for agricultural policy recommendations.

One particular study is examined to show that because any possible negative effects of GM foods are ignored, optimistic assumptions are made about increases in productivity and trade, and selective scenarios are used, the modelling must, perforce, result in positive welfare effects.

It is found that, because of the assumptions of the study and the restricted scenarios investigated, all the modelling can do is estimate the size of the supposedly positive benefits. A negative outcome is not possible.

It is argued that the GTAP model is inappropriate for sub‐Saharan Africa and that the sweeping conclusions from this type of stylised modelling trivialize the complex poverty and socio‐economic problems of sub‐Saharan Africa.

It is demonstrated that, in this case, the GTAP model is not only redundant, but also can yield risky policy recommendations for sub‐Saharan Africa as it affects not only the livelihoods of millions of poor Africans but the ecological balance, biodiversity and economic independence of these nations.

The European Union (EU) has notified its revised Generalized System of Preference (GSP) on 31 October, 2012 which will come into effect from 1 January, 2014. The EU is also in the process of, or contemplating, to sign Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with many developing countries. Recently, EU has officially announced initiation of FTA negotiations with USA. Such preferential tariff arrangements could lead to significant erosion of preferences enjoyed currently by the Least Developed Countries (LDCs). In this backdrop, the main objective of the present study is to investigate the economic impacts originating from preference erosion in the EU market which could potentially affect LDCs in general, Bangladesh in particular. In this context, a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis has been developed by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database to explore the aggregate impact of the preferential erosion as well as sectoral implications for which different partial equilibrium analyses were used. The analysis evince that if the EU eliminates all tariffs for Pakistan, India and Vietnam, Bangladesh's real GDP could decrease by 0.27 percent whilst welfare loss could be to the tune of US$ 54 million. Total exports to the EU will be reduced by 0.18 percent; consequently, Bangladesh’s terms of trade and exports of textiles and clothing could be fall by about 1 percent. The product level disaggregated analysis using RCA and unit price of major items also indicate that a number of products including textiles and clothing will be confronted with formidable market access difficulties in the EU.