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Article
Publication date: 2 February 2015

Naiming Xie

The purpose of this paper is to propose novel civil aircraft cost parameters’ selection method and novel cost estimation approach for civil aircraft so as to effectively simulate…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose novel civil aircraft cost parameters’ selection method and novel cost estimation approach for civil aircraft so as to effectively simulate or forecast civil aircraft cost under poor information and small sample.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on existent cost estimation indexes, this paper summarized civil aircraft research and manufacturing cost impact index system and adopted grey relational model to select most important impact factors. Consider civil aircrafts’ cost information could not be easily collected, the author must estimate their costs with limited sample and poor information. A combination model of GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm is proposed. Both advantages of simulation of BP neural network algorithm and poor information generation of GM (0, N) were effectively combined. Then steps of combined model were given out. Finally, nine types of aircrafts were used to test the validity of proposed model. As comparing with the traditional multiple linear regression model and simple GM (0, N) model, results indicated that proposed model can do the work better.

Findings

Grey relational model can be applied for parameters’ selection and combined GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm can estimate aircraft’s cost as well. Results show that novel combined model could get high forecasting accuracy.

Practical implications

Cost estimation is key problem in production management of civil aircraft. Effective cost management could promote competitiveness of aircraft manufacturing company. Proposed combined model can be applied for civil aircraft cost estimation. Similarly, it could be applied for other complex equipment cost estimation.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in proposing grey relational model for cost parameters’ selection and constructing a combination model of GM (0, N) model and BP neural network algorithm. Algorithm of the proposed model was discussed and steps were given out.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 August 2012

Min Tian, Ying Cao, Naiming Xie and Sifeng Liu

The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel GM(0, N) model based on grey number sequences and to solve the problem of cost forecasting of commercial aircraft which puzzled…

393

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to construct a novel GM(0, N) model based on grey number sequences and to solve the problem of cost forecasting of commercial aircraft which puzzled managers, especially the factors of cost with uncertain information.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the definition of traditional GM(0, N) model, the paper considers the limited information and knowledge, and the algorithm of grey numbers with greyness and kernel was designed. A novel GM(0, N) model based on grey number sequences, named the IN‐GM(0, N) model, is proposed according to the definition of the grey numbers algorithm. The steps of the proposed model are then given. Finally, a case of domestic commercial aircrafts is developed as an example, based on information gathering and model calculating.

Findings

The results of this research indicate that the IN‐GM(0,N) model is effective in cost calculating, providing reliable technical support for cost estimation of large‐scale complex equipment including commercial aircraft.

Practical implications

Cost forecasting of commercial aircraft can be solved effectively and the model can also be utilized to predicate other products.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in constructing a novel grey forecasting model. This work contributes significantly to improving grey forecasting theory and to undoubtedly propose more novel grey forecasting models.

Article
Publication date: 23 August 2013

Li Xi‐can, Yuan Zheng and Zhang Guangbo

This paper attempts to establish the grey GM(0,N) estimation model of the soil organic matter content spectral inversion under the uncertainties between soil organic matter…

140

Abstract

Purpose

This paper attempts to establish the grey GM(0,N) estimation model of the soil organic matter content spectral inversion under the uncertainties between soil organic matter contents and spectral characteristics and the theory of grey system.

Design/methodology/approach

At first, based on the uncertainty of the relationship between the soil organic matter content and spectral characteristics, using the ordered grey accumulation generation and grey GM(0, N) model to establish hyper‐spectral grey estimation model of soil organic matter content. Second, the presented model is used to estimate soil organic matter of Hengshan County in Shanxi province in the last part of the paper.

Findings

The results are convincing: not only that soil organic matter content spectral inversion grey GM(0, N) model based on the ordered grey accumulation generation theory is valid, but also the model's prediction accuracy is higher, with the sample's average prediction accuracy being 93.662 per cent.

Practical implications

The method exposed in the paper can be used on soil organic matter content hyper‐spectral inversion and even for other similar forecast problems.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realising both prediction pattern and application of soil organic matter content hyper‐spectral inversion by using the newest developed theories: grey GM(0, N) model based on the ordered grey accumulation generation.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 January 2013

Chen Hongzhuan, Fan Kaifeng and Fang Zhigeng

The purpose of this paper is to propose a prediction model to predict the cost of complex products with lack of data. The cost estimating is one of the key elements of arguments…

390

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a prediction model to predict the cost of complex products with lack of data. The cost estimating is one of the key elements of arguments around technological economy and investment decision‐making process of complex product.

Design/methodology/approach

A complex product has many characteristics, such as complex structure, large investment, high risk and it usually falls into small‐batch‐production category. Its cost estimation samples are small and cost data are very limited. Based on the characteristics of complex product and cost estimating, this paper introduces performance parameters sequence of associated known data, establishes an N‐GM (0, N) model of characteristic sequence with straddle missing data.

Findings

On the basis of the known key performance parameter sequence, N‐GM (0, N) model is used to predict the grey interval of overall cost vacancy data. Overall cost vacancy data is whitened by sorting reference sequence and realizing complex product overall cost estimation.

Practical implications

The method introduced in the paper can be used to solve practical problems, especially cost prediction of complex products with poor data. The model is also applied on the overall cost and the key component cost estimation of similar but different complex products. Moreover, it provides potential theoretical support for the development of complex product industry in the future.

Originality/value

In this paper, the complex product, which now plays a strategic industrial role in China, is systematically studied by utilizing a new methodology based on grey systems, especially the cost evaluation of the complex product. The use of grey correlation analysis in screening control key item index of complex product cost, the overall cost sequence of the complex product as related sequence and sorting reference sequence, the paper predicts and whitens vacant key item index, obtaining the key item cost index of complex product.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Wuwei Li

For the studies whose purposes are to evaluate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation activities of the enterprises, there are some limitations in the…

2906

Abstract

Purpose

For the studies whose purposes are to evaluate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation activities of the enterprises, there are some limitations in the measures of industrial characteristics and using traditional statistical techniques. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities within Chinese high-tech industries using grey system theory. The research results show that grey system theory is suitable to investigate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities within Chinese high-tech industries.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper proposes the measures of industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities of high-tech enterprises. First, based on the data on Chinese large and medium-sized high-tech enterprises for the period of 2011-2013, this paper applies grey relational analysis to identify the relatively most important indexes on affecting innovation capabilities of Chinese high-tech enterprises. Second, based on the results from grey relational analysis, this study draws a ranking of the five Chinese high-tech industries in terms of innovation capabilities by grey decision making. Finally, based on the results from grey decision making, this study applies GM (0, N) model to investigate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities within Chinese high-tech industries.

Findings

The results of this study show that in the evaluation indexes system of innovation capabilities of high-tech enterprises, personnel in R & D institutions, R & D personnel, internal expenditure on R & D, expenditure on new product development, expenditure on technology imports, expenditure on technology renovation, and expenditure on technology assimilation and absorption are relatively most important elements affecting innovation capabilities of Chinese high-tech enterprises. In addition, the two top ranking on innovation capabilities are manufacture of electronic equipment and communication equipment, and manufacture of medicines. At last, the findings indicate that in the measures of industrial characteristics, the three top ranking on affecting innovation capabilities of Chinese high-tech enterprises are R & D intensity, technology absorption intensity of indigenous high-tech enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises size. The opening level is in the middle position. Technology intensity, market concentration, and state-owned enterprises size are the three bottom ranking on affecting innovation capabilities of Chinese high-tech enterprises.

Research limitations/implications

This study has some limitations. First, this study is limited to Chinese high-tech industries. The findings may not be applicable to other countries’ high-tech industries. Further studies with other countries’ high-tech industries could be extended and examined how industrial characteristics affect innovation capabilities of the firms in these industries. Second, the measures of industrial characteristics proposed in this study are somewhat theoretically weak. In the future, the authors will further improve the current analysis, and develop the measures of industrial characteristics. Finally, with the advent of the more data with the consistent statistical coverage released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics during the more continuous years, other methods, such as panel data regression model in econometrics could be used to evaluate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities within Chinese high-tech industries. By then, the scholars can compare the results from grey system theory and those from panel data regression model in econometrics.

Practical implications

Appropriate industrial environment is favorable for Chinese high-tech enterprises to feed their innovation capabilities. Scientific evaluation on the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities within Chinese high-tech industries is of great significance for Chinese high-tech enterprises in exerting technological catch-up and promoting their competitive advantage. The purposed measures of industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities of high-tech enterprises in this paper, and combined methodology based on grey system theory could be applied to evaluate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities of Chinese high-tech enterprises.

Originality/value

This paper proposes the measures of industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities of high-tech enterprises, and uses grey system theory to evaluate the relationship between industrial characteristics and innovation capabilities within Chinese high-tech industries.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 6 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 1992

R.K. Jain and S. Chandra

During recent years, various hydantoin based heterocyclic glycidyl amine resins have been developed. In these resins the presence of nitrogen containing heterocycle provides…

Abstract

During recent years, various hydantoin based heterocyclic glycidyl amine resins have been developed. In these resins the presence of nitrogen containing heterocycle provides extensive variation in polarity, viscosity and hydrophobicity by the choice of alkyl groups. Most of these resins have low viscosity, high polarity and long pot life ensuring easy wetting and good adhesion. These resins can provide useful properties for casting, fibrous reinforcement, adhesives and coatings. In the present work, two resins, 1‐glycidyl‐ 3‐glycidyloxymethyl‐5, 5‐dimethylhydantoin and 1‐glycidyl‐3‐(2‐glycidyloxybutyl)‐5, 5‐dimethylhydantoin have been prepared using 5, 5‐dimethylhydantoin as the starting raw material. The resins have also been characterised for their various physical and chemical properties.

Details

Pigment & Resin Technology, vol. 21 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0369-9420

Article
Publication date: 16 October 2009

Nai‐Ming Xie and Si‐Feng Liu

The purpose of this paper is to study the parameters' properties of GM(n, h) model on the basis of multiple transformation and the relationship of GM(n, h) model and other grey…

118

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the parameters' properties of GM(n, h) model on the basis of multiple transformation and the relationship of GM(n, h) model and other grey models.

Design/methodology/approach

Multiple transformation property of parameters is important to construct a grey model. However, there is no research on the property of GM(n, h) model, therefore it is meaningful to study the relationship between GM(n, h) model and other grey models.

Findings

The multiple transformation property of parameters of GM(n, h) model is recognized. The parameters' value is dependent on multiple transformation value. The values of simulative and predicative are only dependent to the multiple transformation of the main variable and independent to other variables.

Research limitations/implications

The properties of other grey models could be obtained by analyzing the property of GM(n, h) model.

Practical implications

It is a very useful result for constructing a grey model.

Originality/value

This paper discusses multiple transformation property of GM(n, h) model and the relationship between the GM(n, h) model and other grey models. These grey models are put into a common model and the affections that parameters' multiple transformation caused to the model are studied.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 38 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 June 2019

Wenqing Wu, Xin Ma, Yong Wang, Yuanyuan Zhang and Bo Zeng

The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel multivariate fractional grey model termed GM(a, n) based on the classical GM(1, n) model. The new model can provide accurate…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a novel multivariate fractional grey model termed GM(a, n) based on the classical GM(1, n) model. The new model can provide accurate prediction with more freedom, and enrich the content of grey theory.

Design/methodology/approach

The GM(α, n) model is systematically studied by using the grey modelling technique and the forward difference method. The optimal fractional order a is computed by the genetic algorithm. Meanwhile, a stochastic testing scheme is presented to verify the accuracy of the new GM(a, n) model.

Findings

The recursive expressions of the time response function and the restored values of the presented model are deduced. The GM(1, n), GM(a, 1) and GM(1, 1) models are special cases of the model. Computational results illustrate that the GM(a, n) model provides accurate prediction.

Research limitations/implications

The GM(a, n) model is used to predict China’s total energy consumption with the raw data from 2006 to 2016. The superiority of the GM(a, n) model is more freedom and better modelling by fractional derivative, which implies its high potential to be used in energy field.

Originality/value

It is the first time to investigate the multivariate fractional grey GM(α, n) model, apply it to study the effects of China’s economic growth and urbanization on energy consumption.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 9 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 August 2012

Xin Hong, Chris D. Nugent, Maurice D. Mulvenna, Suzanne Martin, Steven Devlin and Jonathan G. Wallace

Within smart homes, ambient sensors are used to monitor interactions between users and the home environment. The data produced from the sensors are used as the basis for the…

Abstract

Purpose

Within smart homes, ambient sensors are used to monitor interactions between users and the home environment. The data produced from the sensors are used as the basis for the inference of the users' behaviour information. Partitioning sensor data in response to individual instances of activity is critical for a smart home to be fully functional and to fulfil its roles, such as correctly measuring health status and detecting emergency situations. The purpose of this study is to propose a similarity‐based segmentation approach applied on time series sensor data in an effort to detect and recognise activities within a smart home.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explores methods for analysing time‐related sensor activation events in an effort to undercover hidden activity events through the use of generic sensor modelling of activity based upon the general knowledge of the activities. Two similarity measures are proposed to compare a time series based sensor sequence and a generic sensor model of an activity. In addition, a framework is developed for automatically analysing sensor streams.

Findings

The results from evaluation of the proposed methodology on a publicly accessible reference dataset show that the proposed methods can detect and recognise multi‐category activities with satisfying accuracy, in addition to the capability of detecting interleaved activities.

Originality/value

The concepts introduced in this paper will improve automatic detection and recognition of daily living activities from timely ordered sensor events based on domain knowledge of the activities.

Details

International Journal of Pervasive Computing and Communications, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1742-7371

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 January 2011

Emil Scarlat and Camelia Delcea

The purpose of this paper is to realise a complete analysis at the company level using grey systems theory for shaping the relations among variables.

2200

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to realise a complete analysis at the company level using grey systems theory for shaping the relations among variables.

Design/methodology/approach

Starting from the symptoms that can be identified and moving forward to causes that determine a specific stage in a company's development and long‐term survival, all the aspects that can appear and affect a company's performance and bankruptcy are taken into account. Also, due to the fact that all the activities that took place in a company are running in an uncertain and a continually changing environment, grey systems theory was chosen to better shape the relations among the implied variables. Even when referring to a company's diagnosis or to its prediction, the involved aspects are presented and depicted. A numeric example is also computed in the last part of the paper.

Findings

The results are convincing: not only that the diagnosis of the company can show the main elements, factors that are affecting a company's activity, but even the main identified factors can be used for a prediction on a company's future evolution.

Practical implications

The method exposed in the paper can be used by any company for realising the diagnosis of the actual stage in which a firm could be situated and even for making further predictions regarding its evolution.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in realising both diagnosis and prediction of a firm's current and future stage by using one of the newest developed theories: grey systems theory.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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