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Article
Publication date: 7 April 2015

Usama Al-mulali and Abdul Hakim Mohammed

– This paper aims to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) by sector and energy consumption by type in 16 emerging countries.

1604

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) by sector and energy consumption by type in 16 emerging countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The panel model was utilized taking the period 1980-2010.

Findings

The results revealed that GDP by sector and energy consumption by type are cointegrated. Moreover, the Granger causality concluded a bi-directional causal relationship between oil, natural gas and renewable energy consumption and the value of the manufacturing, industrial and services sector. Furthermore, a bi-directional causal relationship was also found between coal consumption and the value of the services sector. Furthermore, a one-way causal relationship was found from oil consumption to the value of the agriculture sector, the value of the agriculture sector to coal consumption, and coal consumption to the value of the manufacturing and the industrial sectors.

Practical implications

This study recommended that these countries should increase their renewable energy consumption to achieve their GDP growth.

Originality/value

This study is different from the previous studies, as it disaggregated the GDP into four sectors, namely, agriculture, manufacturing, industrial and the services sector. In addition, this study will disaggregate energy consumption into oil consumption, gas consumption, coal consumption and electricity consumption.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Explaining Growth in the Middle East
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-44452-240-5

Article
Publication date: 26 August 2014

Usama Al-mulali

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in 82 developing…

3073

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption in 82 developing countries categorized by region.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the goal of this study, the panel model was used taking the period 1990-2009.

Findings

The Kao co-integration test results showed that both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption had a long-running relationship with all the economic sectors in all regions. Moreover, the FMOLS revealed that the renewable and non-renewable energy consumption had a long-run positive relationship with the economic sectors. However, the results also revealed that non-renewable energy consumption has a more significant effect on the economic sectors than the renewable energy consumption. In addition, the Granger causality showed the same results, that the causal relationship between the economic sectors and non-renewable energy consumption is more significant than the causal relationship between the economic sectors and renewable energy.

Practical implications

The reason behind these results is that these regions still depend on fossil fuels to promote their economic growth. Fossil fuels basically contribute more than 80 per cent of their total energy consumption. Thus, the study recommends the developing countries to increase their investment on renewable energy projects to increase the share of the renewable energy of total energy consumption.

Originality/value

This study is considered different from all the previous studies because it will investigate the disaggregate relationship between GDP and energy consumption (renewable and non-renewable) in East Asia and Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Middle East and North Africa, South Asia and the Sub-Saharan African developing countries.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 July 2020

Pierre Rostan and Alexandra Rostan

The purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to forecast economic indicators of the Saudi economy in the context of low oil prices which have taken a toll on the Saudi oil-dependent economy between 2014 and 2017. Trades and investments have plummeted, leading to significant budget deficits. In response, the government unveiled a plan called Saudi Vision 2030 in 2016 which has triggered structural economic reforms leading to an unprecedented strategy of transition from an oil-driven economy to a modern market economy.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper forecasts with spectral analysis economic indicators of the Saudi economy up to 2030 to provide a clearer picture of the future economy assuming that the effects of recent reforms have not yet been traced by most of the economic indicators.

Findings

2018–2030 forecasts are all bearish except West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price expected to average $64.40 during the period 2019–2030. Two additional exceptions are the Saudi population that should grow to 40 million in 2030 and the swelling gross domestic product (GDP) generated by the non-oil sector resulting from bold actions of the Saudi government who is willing to become less dependent on revenues generated by the oil sector.

Research limitations/implications

Government policymakers, economists and investors would have with spectral forecasts better insight and understanding of the Saudi economy dynamics at the early stage of major economic reforms implemented in the country. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has brutally hurt the Saudi economy following a collapse in the global demand for oil and an oversupplied industry. The impact on the Saudi economy will depend on the optimal response brought by its government.

Social implications

Saudi Vision 2030 plan has already triggered a deep transformation of the Saudi society that is reviewed in this paper.

Originality/value

The forecast of Saudi economic indicators is a timely topic considering the challenges facing the economy and reforms being undertaken. Applying an original forecasting technique to economic indicators adds to the originality of the paper.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 16 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Amit Ghosh

Using time-series data on the US banking industry for the period 1984Q1-2016Q2, the present study aims to examine the impact of both aggregate and sector-specific non-performing…

Abstract

Purpose

Using time-series data on the US banking industry for the period 1984Q1-2016Q2, the present study aims to examine the impact of both aggregate and sector-specific non-performing loans (NPLs) on aggregate and sectoral product and labor markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Using both single equation ordinary least squares and instrumental variables regressions, the study compares the sensitivity of sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and employment growth to changes in both aggregate and sectoral NPLs. Moreover, the paper uses vector autoregressions (VARs) to dynamically trace the impact and duration of NPLs on different types of real economic activity..

Findings

Rise in total NPLs reduces US real GDP growth that is most accentuated for construction sector GDP. Likewise, total NPLs significantly lowers both total and non-farm employment growth, financial activities and construction sector employment growth, with the latter showing most sensitivity. Moreover, NPLs in commercial and industrial sector, consumer lending, non-farm non-residential, construction and land development, single- and multi-family residential sectors reduce corresponding sectoral employment growth. The VARs largely confirm these findings with shocks to total NPLs having the most immediate and persistent inimical impact on construction-sector GDP growth.

Practical implications

The deleterious impact of different categories of NPLs on both aggregate as well as sector-specific product and labor markets illustrate that a distressed banking sector is a serious obstacle to the real sector. The findings underscore the need not only to clean up NPLs for the sake of banks financial soundness but also to reduce their pernicious effects on the health of the US economy. For bank regulatory authorities in the USA, it indicates constant monitoring of banks in their jurisdiction and identifying early warning signals to mitigate the potential real sector losses due to rising NPLs.

Originality value

The extant literature on NPLs has mainly focused on explaining its underlying determinants but not on its real sector consequences. The present paper examines the impact of NPLs on different facets of real economic activity, an issue that has been rarely studied and especially not on the US economy. Moreover, the overwhelming majority of existing literature focuses on aggregate NPLs. The relationships derived in such studies, while useful, can mask important differences between different types of NPLs and real economic activity. The present paper explores the impact of disaggregated NPLs in the US banking industry on corresponding sector-specific product and labor markets, again an issue that has not been studied previously.

Article
Publication date: 28 May 2019

Anne Löscher

This paper aims to shed light on financial development in Ethiopia and its implications for overall economic development. It does so with particular focus on development…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to shed light on financial development in Ethiopia and its implications for overall economic development. It does so with particular focus on development understood as industrial development and with special attention drawn on inequality and debt levels as well as the real estate market in Ethiopia. Two research questions are focussed on in particular, where the first serves as prerequisite for the assessment of the second: What kind of financial development took place in Ethiopia in the past quarter of a century? Furthermore, are processes of financialisation visible in Ethiopia, and if so, to what effect?

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is based on publicly available macro-data and qualitative and quantitative data collected by the author herself during a three months’ research stay in Ethiopia.

Findings

It is found that despite higher levels of financial inclusion and deepening, industrialisation is on a relative decline. What is more, inequality and debt levels increase, and the recent growth spurts seem to be rooted in the construction sector with prices in the real estate market surging. In can be concluded that despite a flourishing financial sector, the Ethiopian economy is faced with the peril of crises associated with an inflated real estate market, inequality, debt burdens and impeded industrialisation.

Originality/value

African economies and, in particular, the development and effects of financial markets are still a blind spot in economic research. By combining quantitative and qualitative data on and gathered in Ethiopia, this paper therefore conducts greenfield research.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 November 2018

Ankie Scott-Joseph and Treshauna Felecia Turner

This study takes a disaggregated approach to investigate the impacts of long-run GDP on changes in total government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU…

Abstract

Purpose

This study takes a disaggregated approach to investigate the impacts of long-run GDP on changes in total government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) economies. An understanding of the relationship between changes in total government expenditure and GDP (by sector categories) is expected to provide a working tool to understand the growth debt nexus of Caribbean countries. The purpose of the paper is to use an auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) and error correction model (ECM) to examine and analyse short- and long-run dynamics of disaggregated approach to both output and government expenditure in a dynamic model to identify the growth in the Eastern Caribbean Countries.

Design/methodology/approach

In an attempt to examine the long-run dynamics, data for the period 1970-2015 were used in an ARDL and ECM framework. The authors examine the long-run GDP impacts of changes in total government expenditure and in the shares of different spending categories for the ECCU countries to establish and analyse short and long-run dynamics.

Findings

The results suggest that total fiscal expenditure and disaggregated expenditure including debt services have both positively and negatively contributed to economic growth in the agriculture, manufacturing and mining sectors. Among others, the study found that high national debt in the region resulted primarily from increases in government expenses and diminishing income sources.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to take a disaggregated approach to investigate the relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in the Eastern Caribbean States. The authors’ empirical results suggest that debt servicing reduces economic growth both in the short and long run. The greatest impact being felt in the mining and manufacturing sectors, namely, 1 per cent increase in debt service will bring about 7.90 and 1.67 per cent decrease in economic growth. These results offer fairly strong support to the view that expenditure share variables can weaken sectoral growth, and hence force the overall growth to decline.

Details

International Journal of Development Issues, vol. 18 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1446-8956

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2024

Hon Chung Hui

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of financialisation on the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia. The share of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 houses has been decreasing continuously in the past decade. This implies that housing developers are launching more expensive houses. The greater focus on higher cost housing could be attributed to inflation. But while input cost is rising, the housing sector has also become increasingly financialised. This claim can be supported by the rising share of mortgage and real estate loans in gross domestic product. Financialisation is a process in which the financial sector becomes more dominant relative to the real sector. The extent to which this process is responsible for the changing structure of housing supply in Malaysia is investigated.

Design/methodology/approach

A survey of the literature suggested that the decreasing the proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing could be result of rising input cost, greater degree of financialisation and changing market concentration. Thus, long-run cointegrating equations were formulated and estimated. These equations linked housing share with financialisation, market structure and input cost. The quantitative and qualitative impact of financialisation on the structure of housing supply is of interest.

Findings

The analyses of secondary data suggested that financialisation and input cost did indeed contribute to the decrease in proportion of newly launched sub-MYR250,000 housing. However, the impact of market concentration on housing share was ambiguous. This conclusion survived several robustness checks.

Practical implications

The financialisation of the housing sector implies that developers are increasingly building for profits instead of accommodating the social objective of providing shelter. This result is unsettling because access to adequate housing is a human right. The transformation of housing from the concept of a shelter to a tradable, money-making asset could be a major contributor to the declining housing affordability in the country. Thus, efforts to improve affordability must take account of the effects of financialisation.

Originality/value

An empirical framework for assessing the changes in the structure of housing supply was developed. Existing studies tended to focus only on the volume of housing supply. It is a comprehensive study on changes in the structure of housing supply. Second, while existing studies on the financialisation of housing are mostly qualitative in methodology, this paper offers a quantitative assessment of the financialisation in the housing sector.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 January 2024

Maha AlSabbagh

This study aims to quantify sectoral energy and carbon intensity, revisit the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and explore the relationship between economic…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to quantify sectoral energy and carbon intensity, revisit the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and explore the relationship between economic diversification and CO2 emissions in Bahrain.

Design/methodology/approach

Three stages were followed to understand the linkages between sectoral economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Bahrain. Sectoral energy and carbon intensity were calculated, time series data trends were analyzed and two econometric models were built and analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag method and time series data for the period 1980–2019.

Findings

The results of the analysis suggest that energy and carbon intensity in Bahrain’s industrial sector is higher than those of its services and agricultural sectors. The EKC was found to be invalid for Bahrain, where economic growth is still coupled with CO2 emissions. Whereas CO2 emissions have increased with growth in the manufacturing, and real estate subsectors, the emissions have decreased with growth in the hospitability, transportation and communications subsectors. These results indicate that economic diversification, specifically of the services sector, is aligned with Bahrain’s carbon neutrality target. However, less energy-intensive industries, such as recycling-based industries, are needed to counter the environmental impacts of economic growth.

Originality/value

The impacts of economic diversification on energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the Gulf Cooperation Council petroleum countries have rarely been explored. Findings from this study contribute to informing economic and environment-related policymaking in Bahrain.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 July 2012

Najeb Masoud and Glenn Hardaker

The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework that integrates the endogenous growth and functions of financial markets and institutions theory in order to…

6596

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a theoretical framework that integrates the endogenous growth and functions of financial markets and institutions theory in order to investigate how the financial market and the banking sector develop indicators that affect economic growth in these countries.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is an empirical analysis of the relationship between financial development and economic growth for 42 emerging markets, over 12 years, using endogenous growth model.

Findings

First, the results suggest that stock market development has a significant effect on economic growth, and this effect remains strong even after the influence of banking sector and other control variables using a growth model. Second, the research findings largely support the view that there is a stable, long‐term equilibrium relationship between the evolution of the stock market and the evolution of the economy.

Originality/value

The evidence supports the view that the relation between stock market development and economic growth in emerging economies is bi‐directional. The findings describe that the stock market and the banking sector in emerging economy are complementary rather than substitutes in providing financial services to the economy.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 29 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

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