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The purpose of this paper is to develop a quantitative risk assessment method for agricultural products cold chain logistics to assess the condition of the fresh agricultural products cold chain process objectively and accurately.

A risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics is designed on the basis of the risk identification for the process of agricultural products cold chain logistics. This paper first uses catastrophe progression method and a new maximum deviation method to build an improved catastrophe progression assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. In order to verify the reliability and validity of the model, two representative enterprises are selected as the case in the study.

The results in the empirical research indicate strong support for the assessment model and coincide with the reality. The risk assessment index system can also reflect the key risk factors from agricultural products cold chain logistics scientifically. In addition, the improved catastrophe progression assessment method proposed in this paper can be scientific and reasonable to predict risk.

This paper contributes to provide a new risk assessment model for agricultural products cold chain logistics. The new model overcomes the limitation of subjective empowerment and it increases the objectivity and scientificity in the process of cold chain logistics risk assessment. This paper also shows that practitioners involved in the field of products cold chain logistics can manage the potential risk by a set of scientific methods for assessing the risk before the accident.

The paper provides a practical guideline to practitioners, especially for cold chain logistics managers, relevant management departments, and cold chain logistics management consultants. It is proved that the new risk assessment method and the risk assessment index system of agricultural products cold chain logistics can help them assess the risk scientifically and reasonably.

Although the calculation is simple, the new model can overcome the limitation of subjective empowerment scientifically and reasonably, and thus has important practical value.

Unforeseen events can disrupt the operational process and negatively impact emergency resources optimization and its supply chain. A limited number of studies have addressed risk management issues in the context of emergency supply chains, and this existing research lacks inbuilt and practical techniques that can significantly affect the reliability of risk management outcomes. Therefore, this paper aims to identify and practically analyze the specific risk factors that can most likely disrupt the normal functioning of the emergency supply chain in disaster relief operations.

This paper has used a three-step process to investigate and evaluate risk factors associated with the emergency supply chain. First, the study conducts a comprehensive literature review to identify the risk factors. Second, the research develops a questionnaire survey to validate and classify the identified risk factors. At the end of this step, the study develops a hierarchical structure. Finally, the research investigates the weighted priority of the validated risk factors using the fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) methodology. Experts were required to provide subjective judgments.

This paper identified and validated 28 specific risk factors prevalent in emergency supply chains. Based on their contextual meanings, the research classified these risk factors into two main categories: internal and external risk factors; four subcategories: demand, supply, infrastructural and environmental risk factors; and 11 risk types: forecast, inventory, procurement, supplier, quality, transportation, warehousing, systems, disruption, social and political risk factors. The most significant risk factors include war and terrorism, the absence of legislative rules that can influence and support disaster relief operations, the impact of cascading disasters, limited quality of relief supplies and sanctions and constraints that can hinder stakeholder collaboration. Therefore, emergency supply chain managers should adopt appropriate strategies to mitigate these risk factors.

This study will contribute to the general knowledge of risk management in emergency supply chains. The identified risk factors and structural hierarchy taxonomic diagram will provide a comprehensive risk database for emergency supply chains.

The research findings will provide comprehensive and systemic support for respective practitioners and policymakers to obtain a firm understanding of the different risk categories and specific risk factors that can impede the effective functioning of the emergency supply chain during immediate disaster relief operations. Therefore, this will inform the need for the improvement of practices in critical aspects of the emergency supply chain through the selection of logistics and supply chain strategies that can ensure the robustness and resilience of the system.

This research uses empirical data to identify, categorize and validate risk factors in emergency supply chains. This study contributes to the theory of supply chain risk management. The study also adopts the fuzzy-AHP technique to evaluate and prioritize these risk factors to inform practitioners and policymakers of the most significant risk factors. Furthermore, this study serves as the first phase of managing risk in emergency supply chains since it motivates future studies to empirically identify, evaluate and select effective strategies that can eliminate or minimize the effects of these risk factors.

This paper aims to propose an integration of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods in a multiattribute grey relational analysis (GRA) methodology in which the attribute weights are completely unknown and the attribute values take the form of fuzzy numbers.

This research has been organized to proceed along the following steps: computing the grey relational coefficients for alternatives with respect to each attribute using a fuzzy GRA methodology. Grey relational coefficients provide the required (output) data for additive DEA models; computing the priority weights of attributes using the AHP method to impose weight bounds on attribute weights in additive DEA models; computing grey relational grades using a pair of additive DEA models to assess the performance of each alternative from the optimistic and pessimistic perspectives; and combining the optimistic and pessimistic grey relational grades using a compromise grade to assess the overall performance of each alternative.

The proposed approach provides a more reasonable and encompassing measure of performance, based on which the overall ranking position of alternatives is obtained. An illustrated example of a nuclear waste dump site selection is used to highlight the usefulness of the proposed approach.

This research is a step forward to overcome the current shortcomings in the weighting schemes of attributes in a fuzzy multiattribute GRA methodology.

To construct a scientific and reasonable indicator system, it is necessary to design a set of standardized indicator primary selection and optimization inspection process. The purpose of this paper is to provide theoretical guidance and reference standards for the indicator system design process, laying a solid foundation for the application of the indicator system, by systematically exploring the expert evaluation method to optimize the index system to enhance its credibility and reliability, to improve its resolution and accuracy and reduce its objectivity and randomness.

The paper is based on system theory and statistics, and it designs the main line of “relevant theoretical analysis – identification of indicators – expert assignment and quality inspection” to achieve the design and optimization of the indicator system. First, the theoretical basis analysis, relevant factor analysis and physical process description are used to clarify the comprehensive evaluation problem and the correlation mechanism. Second, the system structure analysis, hierarchical decomposition and indicator set identification are used to complete the initial establishment of the indicator system. Third, based on expert assignment method, such as Delphi assignments, statistical analysis, t-test and non-parametric test are used to complete the expert assignment quality diagnosis of a single index, the reliability and validity test is used to perform single-index assignment correction and consistency test is used for KENDALL coordination coefficient and F-test multi-indicator expert assignment quality diagnosis.

Compared with the traditional index system construction method, the optimization process used in the study standardizes the process of index establishment, reduces subjectivity and randomness, and enhances objectivity and scientificity.

The innovation point and value of the paper are embodied in three aspects. First, the system design process of the combined indicator system, the multi-dimensional index screening and system optimization are carried out to ensure that the index system is scientific, reasonable and comprehensive. Second, the experts’ background is comprehensively evaluated. The objectivity and reliability of experts’ assignment are analyzed and improved on the basis of traditional methods. Third, aim at the quality of expert assignment, conduct t-test, non-parametric test of single index, and multi-optimal test of coordination and importance of multiple indicators, enhance experts the practicality of assignment and ensures the quality of expert assignment.

Research on grey systems is becoming more sophisticated, and grey relational and prediction analyses are receiving close review worldwide. Particularly, the application of grey systems in marine economics is gaining importance. The purpose of this paper is to summarize and review literature on grey models, providing new directions in their application in the marine economy.

This paper organized seminal studies on grey systems published by Chinese core journal database – CNKI, Web of Science and Elsevier from 1982 to 2018. After searching the aforementioned database for the said duration, the authors used the CiteSpace visualization tools to analyze them.

The authors sorted the studies according to their countries/regions, institutions, keywords and categories using the CiteSpace tool; analyzed current research characteristics on grey models; and discussed their possible applications in marine businesses, economy, scientific research and education, marine environment and disasters. Finally, the authors pointed out the development trend of grey models.

Although researches are combining grey theory with fractals, neural networks, fuzzy theory and other methods, the applications, in terms of scope, have still not met the demand. With the increasingly in-depth research in marine economics and management, international marine economic research has entered a new period of development. Grey theory will certainly attract scholars’ attention, and its role in marine economy and management will gain considerable significance.

As the contradiction between economic development, resource and environment has become increasingly prominent, low-carbon competitiveness has received worldwide focus. This study aims to examine low-carbon competitiveness in 31 provinces (cities and regions) of China.

An evaluation index system for low-carbon competitiveness in China has been constructed, which is composed of 25 economic, social, environmental and policy indicators. To study the state of low-carbon competitiveness and resistance to China’ development of low-carbon competitiveness, this study uses a combination of the catastrophe progression model, the spatial autocorrelation model and the barrier method.

China’ low-carbon competitiveness gradually decreases from coastal to inland areas: the Tibet and Ningxia Hui autonomous regions are the least competitive regions, while the Shandong and Jiangsu provinces are the most competitive areas. The spatial correlation of the 31 provinces’ low-carbon competitiveness is very low and lacks regional cooperation. This study finds that the proportion of a region’ wetland area, the proportion of tertiary industries represented in its GDP and afforestation areas are the main factors in the development of low-carbon competitiveness. China should become the leader of carbon competitiveness by playing the leading role in the Eastern Region, optimizing the industrial structure, improving government supervision and strengthening environmental protection.

The paper provides a quantitative reference for evaluating China’ low-carbon competitiveness, which is beneficial for environmental policymaking. In addition, the evaluation and analysis methods offer relevant implications for developing countries.

A flexible decision technology called the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is applied to a generic aquaculture conflict to illustrate how GMCR can be used to systematically investigate a wide range of conflicts arising in aquaculture in order to obtain meaningful strategic insights and thereby assist in making informed decisions in aquaculture development. To emphasize the importance of being able to resolve aquaculture controversies, a review of the global economic impacts of the aquaculture industry is provided and the key stakeholders who may be involved in aquaculture disputes along with their legitimate interests are identified. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

The GMCR methodology comprises two main stages: modeling and analysis. During the modeling stage, key decision makers (DMs), the options under each DM’s control and each DM’s relative preferences over feasible states are identified based on a thorough background investigation to a given dispute. Within the analysis stage, solution concepts that describe key characteristics of human behavior under conflict are utilized to determine resolutions that could occur when DMs interact under pure competition and cooperatively. Interpretation of the equilibrium results provides meaningful strategic insights for better understanding which strategies a given DM could select as the conflict evolves over time.

The results demonstrate how difficult it can be to balance the interests of different key stakeholders in aquaculture development. In all possible resolutions identified in the generic aquaculture conflict, at least two DMs among First Nations, environmental group and residents (Res) would object to the expansion of aquaculture activities due to the assumption that the government would choose to appease one stakeholder at a time. They also reflect the need for a useful tool box of decision technologies for addressing the vast range of challenges that could arise in the important area of marine economics and management.

The GMCR methodology possesses several unique and key original capabilities in comparison to other conflict analysis models. First, it only requires limited information to calibrate a conflict model. Second, it contains a number of solution concepts that describe how a DM could think and behave under conflict. Third, it furnishes a range of informative output, follow-up analyses and advice for use in real-life decision support. Finally, all of the foregoing advantages of GMCR can be contained within decision support systems that permit practitioners and researchers to readily apply the GMCR methodology to real-life conflicts.

Since 2000, China, along with the USA, UK, France, Japan and many other developed countries have drawn up new blueprints for the development of a marine economy. At present, international marine economics research has entered into a new period of development, and the research methods of ocean econometrics are becoming more complex and mature. The purpose of this paper is to review the progress of international marine econometrics research and gives the development direction of marine econometrics.

The Web of Science core collection database was utilized, harvesting data from 1996 to May 2018, measuring the marine economy research from 1,489 articles as its sample, using CiteSpace visualization analysis tools.

Mapping the knowledge map from annual international marine economic metrology, literature identification, keywords, involving disciplines and related journals, countries (regions) and research and analyzing the research status of reveals the research frontiers of international marine economy measurement (learning) by using CiteSpace.

The conceptions and characteristics of marine econometrics are defined and analyzed, and the theoretical method of marine econometrics is sorted out. Mapping the knowledge diagram of marine econometrics and discussing the research status of international marine economics, and clarifying the existing problems, future opportunities and challenges of international marine econometrics research.

The purpose of the paper is to predict mapping of areas vulnerable to flooding in the Ourika watershed in the High Atlas of Morocco with the aim of providing a useful tool capable of helping in the mitigation and management of floods in the associated region, as well as Morocco as a whole.

Four machine learning (ML) algorithms including k-nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural network, random forest (RF) and x-gradient boost (XGB) are adopted for modeling. Additionally, 16 predictors divided into categorical and numerical variables are used as inputs for modeling.

The results showed that RF and XGB were the best performing algorithms, with AUC scores of 99.1 and 99.2%, respectively. Conversely, KNN had the lowest predictive power, scoring 94.4%. Overall, the algorithms predicted that over 60% of the watershed was in the very low flood risk class, while the high flood risk class accounted for less than 15% of the area.

There are limited, if not non-existent studies on modeling using AI tools including ML in the region in predictive modeling of flooding, making this study intriguing.

The present study is performed to identify the propagation mechanism of the ripple effect as well as examine the simultaneous impact of risks on supply chain (SC) performance.

A theoretical framework with many hypotheses regarding the relationships between SC risk types and performance is established. The data are collected from a large-scale survey supported by a project of the Japanese government to promote sustainable socioeconomic development for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, with the participation of 207 firms. Structural equation modeling (SEM) is used to test the hypotheses of the theoretical framework.

It is indicated that human-made risk causes operational risk, while natural risk causes both supply risk and operational risk. Furthermore, the impacts of human-made risk and natural risk on performance are amplified through operational risk.

This study is one of the first attempts that identifies the propagation mechanism of the ripple effect and examines the simultaneous impact of risks on performance in construction SCs.

Although many studies on risk management in construction SCs have been carried out, they mainly focus on risk identification or quantification of risk impact. It is observed that research on the ripple effect of disruptions has been very scarce.