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1 – 10 of over 282000
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 July 2023

Aino Halinen, Sini Nordberg-Davies and Kristian Möller

Future is rarely explicitly addressed or problematized in business network research. This study aims to examine the possibilities of developing a business actor’s future…

Abstract

Purpose

Future is rarely explicitly addressed or problematized in business network research. This study aims to examine the possibilities of developing a business actor’s future orientation to network studies and imports ideas and concepts from futures research to support the development.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is conceptual and interdisciplinary. The authors critically analyze how extant studies grounded in the sensemaking view and process research approach integrate future time and how theoretical myopia hinders the adoption of a future orientation.

Findings

The prevailing future perspective is restricted to managers’ perceptions and actions at present, ignoring the anticipation and exploration of alternative longer-term futures. Future time is generally conceived as embedded in managers’ cognitive processes or is seen as part of the ongoing interaction, where the time horizon to the future is not noticed or is at best short.

Research limitations/implications

To enable a forward-looking perspective, researchers should move the focus from expectation building in business interaction to purposeful preparation of alternative future(s) and from the view of seeing future as enacted in the present to envisioning of both near-term and more distant futures.

Practical implications

This study addresses the growing need of business actors to anticipate future developments in the rapidly changing market conditions and to innovate and change business practices to save the planet for future generations.

Originality/value

This study elaborates on actors’ future orientation to business markets and networks, proposes the integration of network research concepts with concepts from futures studies and poses new types of research questions for future research.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 39 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2022

Ilpo Koskinen, Nicholas Gilmore and Emi Minghui Gui

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios.

Findings

First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting.

Research limitations/implications

The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy.

Practical implications

The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies.

Social implications

The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy.

Originality/value

This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.

Details

foresight, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 June 2022

Fredy Vargas-Lama

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to identify the aspects that social actors consider in constructing shared futures in communities. In their application in emerging countries, especially in the Global South, the socio-cultural particularities of communities and actors are often overlooked, generating friction or social conflicts. This paper presents two critical elements contributing to the debate: the importance of understanding Social Actors within a model of generating community futures in emerging countries; and the relevant factors that influence the actors in an exercise of building futures in communities.

Design/methodology/approach

From qualitative research, a case study of community foresight of the future was used: the future of Puerto Gaitán 2037 (Meta, Colombia). A method of information collection was applied from observation of the participants and analysis of documentation. The analysis method was the deductive qualitative analysis (DQA).

Findings

The participation of the social actors presents a model of five relevant elements that influence the actors for the successful construction of futures in communities. The first four factors, revealed from theory, are presented in real life. Likewise, a fifth factor is proven, Long-term thinking, which is evidenced by a model of application of futures studies for the specific context, applicable to the case of communities in countries of the Global South.

Originality/value

Although there are isolated examples of recommendations regarding studies to generate the future of communities, to the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study that presents concrete factors that contribute to guiding the construction of community futures from social actors, especially in countries of the Global South such as Colombia. It is also one of the first studies to use the DQA as a method of analysis in a topic of futures studies.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 22 March 2021

Saija Toivonen

The purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.

1821

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.

Design/methodology/approach

The user experiences of the futures wheel method are investigated through questionnaire answers of 114 master’s level students and real estate experts taking part in future wheel workshops.

Findings

The futures wheel method could enhance future-oriented thinking and decision-making in the real estate field. The respondents see futures thinking as an important skill and recognize several advantages concerning the method.

Practical implications

The futures wheel method bears great potential to be used in the real estate sector and it could be a fruitful addition to the curriculums at different education levels in real estate studies.

Social implications

Futures thinking is essential when aiming for sustainable decisions in the real estate field which again would benefit the whole surrounding society.

Originality/value

This paper is the first published paper concentrating on the user experiences of the future wheel method in the real estate sector. The benefits and the disadvantages of the method are investigated but also the attitudes indicating the potential of the method to be successfully adopted in the field are analyzed.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 July 2021

Evangelos Psomas

Many future research proposals of Lean Manufacturing (LM) are presented in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to determine these future research proposals of LM which…

Abstract

Purpose

Many future research proposals of Lean Manufacturing (LM) are presented in the literature. The purpose of this paper is to determine these future research proposals of LM which are country-related and classify them.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic literature review (SLR) of peer-reviewed journal articles in LM was conducted. A total of 145 articles published in 34 journals during 2010–2020 were collected from four major management science publishers namely, Emerald Online, Elsevier/Science Direct, Springer Link and Taylor and Francis. The country-related future research proposals of LM identified in the literature were classified according to, firstly, the continent of the country of reference, and secondly, some form of natural affinity of these proposals creating meaningful themes. The quality tool “affinity diagram” was applied to classify the country-related future research proposals of LM.

Findings

The country-related future research proposals of LM, which are increasing in the literature over time, refer mostly to studies to be conducted in several continents/countries and to multinational studies. Conducting studies specifically in Asia, Europe, South and North America, Africa and Australia–New Zealand is also suggested. The plethora of the country-related future research proposals of LM were classified, based on the affinity of their content, into 18 meaningful themes. These themes were also classified based on their affinity into two broad categories, namely “themes concerning the LM approach itself” and “themes concerning factors outside the LM approach”.

Research limitations/implications

The restricted number of the databases searched and the subjectivity of classifying the large number of the country-related future research proposals into themes are the main limitations of the present SLR. Based on these limitations, future literature review studies can be carried out.

Practical implications

Useful proposals are provided to researchers of several countries for conducting original and country-specific research studies which can enrich the knowledge of the implementation of LM under the specific circumstances of a country for the benefit of practitioners.

Originality/value

This study goes beyond previous literature review studies on LM by focusing exclusively on the LM future research agenda which is country related. The analytical presentation of the country-related future research proposals as well as the formulation of clusters of these proposals make the present SLR study substantially different from those carried out worldwide so far.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 29 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 August 2010

Martijn van der Steen, Mark van Twist, Maarten van der Vlist and Roger Demkes

This paper aims to argue that utilising foresight becomes a more useful tool to organisational management, if the innovative technique of “creative competition” is applied. In an

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to argue that utilising foresight becomes a more useful tool to organisational management, if the innovative technique of “creative competition” is applied. In an empirical analysis, it seeks to show how the technique of creative competition was used in a scenario‐project. The case study shows how and why the technique of creative competition “worked”. These findings will then be used to explore the broader application of creative competition in organisational foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

The study first elaborates theoretically on the difference between “forecast” and “foresight” and explores how the addition of the organisational dimension to these terms changes their meanings. It then focuses on the organisation that commissioned the study – Rijkswaterstaat – and describes its history with respect to exploring the future and certain other relevant contextual elements of the case study, such as how the project was organised. After that, it conceptualises the RWS2020 project as an example of using “organisational foresight” and discusses the concept of “creative competition” as a means of bringing “organisation” and “foresight” closer together. The paper then describes what creative competition was used in the case, how it worked in the case study, and how “the game” of creative competition was played. It formulates conclusions on the basis of this case study and then reflects on the findings.

Findings

Application of creative competition adds to the integration of foresight in organizational management and organizational change. It supports a more future orientedness in strategic management. Further analysis of other cases is needed to further strengthen theory about application of the method of creative competition.

Originality/value

The technique of creative competition is relatively new and has not been theorized as yet. Organizational foresight has been used as a concept, but has hardly been theorized and empirically tested as well. The paper does both, in an exploratory way. It provides interesting insight into the working of organizational foresight for both academics and practitioners, and identifies strategic choices for managers conducting organizational foresight studies with or without the use of creative competition.

Article
Publication date: 16 August 2021

Alan Clardy

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the results of futures studies are knowledge or if not, what it is that futures studies actually produce. Five types of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the results of futures studies are knowledge or if not, what it is that futures studies actually produce. Five types of representations of the future are the result of these studies. As the value of futures studies depends on no small measure of their credibility, the standards for carrying out and reporting these studies are identified along with a description of how Toulmin’s model of informal logic can be used to best improve their credibility.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is based on a multi-disciplinary literature review and integrative analysis.

Findings

Using epistemological criteria for knowledge as truth, belief and rationale, the results of futures studies are not and cannot be knowledge. Instead, futures studies produce five kinds of “representations of the future”: predictions, projections and forecasts, scenarios, visions and structures for action. Six standards for conducting and reporting the results of futures studies are provided which will increase the credibility of these studies. Toulmin’s informal logic format will provide the foundation for the most persuasive basis of such studies.

Practical implications

Futurists will understand that the products of their studies are not knowledge and why this is the case. They will also understand that the type of futures studies they are conducting are either conditional, contingent propositions or normative prescriptions in nature. There are six guidelines for carrying out and reporting futures studies which can also be used to assess the quality of published studies. They will see how the use of a certain kind of informal logic can establish the most credible foundations for their studies.

Originality/value

As an integrative literature review, it incorporates and simplifies widely disparate existing contributions to the topic of the nature of knowledge regarding futures studies and the criteria for making such studies as credible as possible.

Article
Publication date: 3 March 2020

Mohammad Reza Fathi, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, Seyed Mohammad Sobhani and Can Deniz Koksal

The purpose of this study is to formulate exploratory scenarios of Operations Research through the critical uncertainty approach and Soft Systems Methodology.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to formulate exploratory scenarios of Operations Research through the critical uncertainty approach and Soft Systems Methodology.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, the discipline of operation research internal and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After use of the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of operations research have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops.

Findings

Four scenarios are presented in this study. These scenarios include Solar System, Esfandiar's Eye, Rival’s Setraps and Legendary Simurgh. Naturally, the imagination of such a unitary future for all academic communities is an expectation far from reality, and given the conditions of each of these futures or any integration of them is imaginable.

Originality/value

Operations Research models have been faced with variously multiple changes since its emergence until now. Investigation into the future of operations research on the necessity for his planning has not received a reasonable notice in the literature. Sporadic activities that have been carried out are also lacking in the necessary methodology. Also, there has been no research about future study using the soft Operation Research tools (Soft Systems Methodology).

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 April 2015

K.A. Chatha and I. Butt

A literature review within the manufacturing strategy (MS) discipline with a focus on thematic developments is provided. Based on recent studies, a set of challenges posed to…

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Abstract

Purpose

A literature review within the manufacturing strategy (MS) discipline with a focus on thematic developments is provided. Based on recent studies, a set of challenges posed to manufacturing enterprise of the future are summarized, and thematic areas are analyzed in relation to meeting those challenges. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on a select set of 506 articles published in top-ranked refereed international journals in the discipline of operations management, major and subthemes are identified and the publication trends in these themes are provided with time and across geographical regions, namely: North America, Europe, and other parts of the world.

Findings

MS literature is predominantly focussed on the economic objectives of firms without a due focus on the social and environmental perspectives. MS literature covers 11 major thematic areas, namely: MS components and paradigms, manufacturing capabilities (MCs), strategic choices (SCs), best practices (BPs), the strategy process (SP), supply-chain management (SCM), performance measurement, transnational comparisons, global manufacturing, environmental/green manufacturing, and literature reviews. The research in two areas – SCs, and MCs – has been in decline, while the research in BPs, the SP, and transnational comparisons is growing (in absolute figures). Various research opportunities for future studies are identified.

Research limitations/implications

The literature review is limited in its selection of articles and journals, however, the identified trends clarify the state of research by the MS research community at large.

Practical implications

For researchers, multiple new research directions are identified in order to advance knowledge in the field of MS. The publication trends also highlight thematic areas where most of the MS body of knowledge is currently available and can be utilized by practitioners.

Originality/value

The paper’s novelty comes from: first, a broader and deeper review of thematic areas that has not been researched before, second, trends in thematic areas by time, across geographical regions, and including time-region dyads, and third, coverage provided by MS literature in meeting challenges posed to manufacturing enterprise of the future.

Details

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 35 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3577

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 February 2020

Katherine Prince

This paper reflects on the author’s experience of an education foundation’s developing a robust and nationally recognized futures studies practice over a period of 14 years. In so…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper reflects on the author’s experience of an education foundation’s developing a robust and nationally recognized futures studies practice over a period of 14 years. In so doing, this paper aims to inform other futures studies practitioners about the kinds of considerations that can be encountered, and which must be managed, in starting, developing and maintaining a futures studies practice.

Design/methodology/approach

Organized around KnowledgeWorks’ triennial forecasts on the future of learning, the paper takes a narrative approach to describe the organization’s and the author’s future studies journeys, examining ways in which organizational learning and dynamics, as well as audience reception, affected the relative success of the study.

Findings

The paper begins by describing KnowledgeWorks’ excitement when publishing its first forecast on the future of education as a client of the institute for the future put KnowledgeWorks on the national map. It goes on to examine the organization’s capacity development in learning how to engage education audiences in exploring the future of learning, situating the study in the field of futures studies and developing internal capacity and thought leadership in the field. The paper concludes by reflecting on key aspects of KnowledgeWorks’ organizational learning; the organization’s leadership, moment and culture; and the author’s professional development journey.

Originality/value

The paper will help other future studies practitioners, along with organizations interested in considering investing in futures studies, anticipate considerations that could help them strengthen their practice or set up their organizational investment for success.

Details

On the Horizon , vol. 28 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1074-8121

Keywords

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