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Article
Publication date: 30 September 2013

Ian Roberge

– This exploratory article aims to define foresight and consider its use in public management. Impediments to foresight best practices are also discussed.

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Abstract

Purpose

This exploratory article aims to define foresight and consider its use in public management. Impediments to foresight best practices are also discussed.

Design/methodology/approach

The research is based on the literature, including both primary and secondary sources. Canada serves as a case study to discuss foresight practices.

Findings

Foresight has the potential to be useful from a governance perspective. Foresight practices, however, are limited by the need to overcome departmental boundaries, political impediments and, arguably, governments' abating policy capacity.

Research limitations/implications

The purpose of this article is to introduce foresight limiting to an extent the depth of the analysis. Canada is neither a foresight leader nor at the bottom of the list. Conclusions drawn from this case are, despite differing political and administrative contexts, representative of problems faced by many governments in using foresight.

Originality/value

The field of public management has paid little attention to foresight, though governments do make use of this instrument. This article is one of the first to consider foresight, not from the perspective of the futures field, but from that of the discipline of public management.

Details

International Journal of Public Sector Management, vol. 26 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0951-3558

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 July 2022

Shermon Ortega Cruz and Nicole Anne Kahn-Parreño

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce, unpack, explore, make sense and share Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as a futures concept, framework and methodology to reconceptualize foresight and reframe anticipatory processes to enable the self and communities to reimagine visions of the future. This indigenous foresight process offers to strip the husk and break the shell of conscious, colonial anticipation and reveal and liberate unconscious imagination that enables ethical aspirations to emerge.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper introduces and examines the context, purpose and process of the four waves of the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach. These were constructed through the use of the Engaged Foresight approach, through workshops, a literature review and an action–learning approach. The first wave, lawak, looks into the breadth of foresight. The second wave, lalim, looks into the depth of foresight. Tayog, the third wave, looks into the peak of foresight. Finally, the fourth wave of foresight kababaang-loob contemplates the nature, values and wisdom of foresight.

Findings

This paper shares the processes, experiences and impacts through five case studies where the Hiraya Foresight Framework via the Engaged Foresight approach was applied. This paper shares the impacts of Hiraya Foresight in democratizing and indigenizing futures literacy.

Originality/value

This paper describes and offers Hiraya Foresight via the Engaged Foresight approach as an indigenous approach to decolonize futures studies and foresight practice.

Article
Publication date: 4 March 2014

Marcus Bussey

This article seeks to reflect on the role of key concepts in foresight and futures work. The goal is to explore a set of concepts and link them to the effects they have in the

Abstract

Purpose

This article seeks to reflect on the role of key concepts in foresight and futures work. The goal is to explore a set of concepts and link them to the effects they have in the world of foresight practice. It is argued that concepts order foresight practice and that though each foresight context and practitioner is unique, concepts bring a sense of order and coherence to foresight work and futures thinking. This reflection is placed in the context of a set of first principles the author acknowledges as his starting place for futures thinking and foresight practice.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper takes the form of conceptual analysis.

Findings

Concepts have effects and these can be assessed based on their ability to increase social and personal resilience in contexts characterised by change, complexity and uncertainty.

Research limitations/implications

Foresight practitioners clarify their own values and ethics through reflection on the concepts they use and the processes they deploy when working with clients.

Practical implications

More reflective foresight practice; greater conceptual clarity when reflecting on and communicating/teaching foresight and futures thinking.

Originality/value

This paper offers a basis for orienting foresight work towards the broader social goal of resilience through a deepened appreciation of how concepts inform process and structure meaning.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 October 2007

Éva Hideg

The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it.

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Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to explore the gap between theory and practice in foresight and to give some suggestions on how to reduce it.

Design/methodology/approach

Analysis of practical foresight activities and suggestions are based on a literature review, the author's own research and practice in the field of foresight and futures studies, and her participation in the work of a European project (COST A22).

Findings

Two different types of practical foresight activities have developed. One of them, the practice of foresight of critical futures studies (FCFS) is an application of a theory of futures studies. The other, termed here as praxis foresight (PF), has no theoretical basis and responds directly to practical needs. At present a gap can be perceived between theory and practice. PF distinguishes itself from the practice and theory of FCFS and narrows the construction space of futures. Neither FCFS nor PF deals with content issues of the outer world. Reducing the gap depends on renewal of joint discourses and research about experience of different practical foresight activities and manageability of complex dynamics in foresight. Production and feedback of self‐reflective and reflective foresight knowledge could improve theory and practice.

Originality/value

Contemporary practical foresight activities are analysed and suggestions to reduce the gap are developed in the context of the linkage between theory and practice. This paper is thought provoking for futurists, foresight managers and university researchers.

Details

Foresight, vol. 9 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2003

Joseph Voros

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by…

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Abstract

A generic foresight process framework is outlined, based on prior independent work by Mintzberg, Horton and Slaughter. The framework was developed as part of work carried out by the author during the introduction of foresight into the formal strategic planning of a public‐sector university in Australia. The framework recognises several distinct phases, leading from the initial gathering of information, through to the production of outputs intended as input into the more familiar activities of strategy development and strategic planning. The framework is also useful as a diagnostic tool for examining how foresight work and strategy are undertaken, as well as a design aid for customised foresight projects and processes. Some observations and reflections are made on lessons learned from a two‐and‐a‐half year engagement as an organisationally‐based foresight practitioner.

Details

Foresight, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 August 2009

Graham H. May

As part of the State of Play of the Futures Field project this paper attempts to assess the nature of futures in Europe.

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Abstract

Purpose

As part of the State of Play of the Futures Field project this paper attempts to assess the nature of futures in Europe.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper presents internet‐based research.

Findings

The paper reveals an overview of futures work in Europe.

Research limitations/implications

The review is based on web‐based information mainly in English.

Originality/value

The paper is part of a global study assessing the level of futures work.

Details

Foresight, vol. 11 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 September 2016

Joe Ravetz and Ian Douglas Miles

This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to review the challenges of urban foresight via an analytical method: apply this to the city demonstrations on the UK Foresight Future of Cities: and explore the implications for ways forward.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodology is based on the principles of co-evolutionary complex systems, a newly developed toolkit of “synergistic mapping and design”, and its application in a “synergy foresight” method.

Findings

The UK Foresight Future of Cities is work in progress, but some early lessons are emerging – the need for transparency in foresight method – and the wider context of strategic policy intelligence.

Practical implications

The paper has practical recommendations, and a set of propositions, (under active discussion in 2015), which are based on the analysis.

Originality/value

The paper aims to demonstrate an application of “synergy foresight” with wide benefits for cities and the communities within them.

Article
Publication date: 28 September 2018

Ardeshir Sayah Mofazali and Katayoun Jahangiri

The human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers…

Abstract

Purpose

The human efforts to be prepared better for the future challenges of natural disasters go back ages. Natural disasters occur when a natural event, such as an earthquake, triggers the social vulnerability. These natural disasters kill thousands of people worldwide annually and cause economic losses in millions of dollars. Moreover, the global cost of natural disasters has increased substantially, and mega-disasters occur when the need for recovery truly becomes national or international. There are several trends in nature and society, which suggest that this pattern may continue, with mega-disasters occurring more frequently in the future. In the past 100 years, the number of disasters and the number of people affected by these disasters have exponentially up surged. Thus, there is no other way to improve preparedness in a meaningful or diverse future-oriented manner.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper focuses on how to design and customize a conceptual foresight model in “disaster risk management” in Iran, and offers an executive model to help decision-makers in disaster management, through which an appropriate practical framework for the implementation of foresight has been developed.

Finding

The model has presented a possible framework for implementing a foresight practice within the context of disaster management. This paper particularly addresses different elements of a customized model, developed through a substantial literature review and comparative study for defining the suitable model in the disaster management context. The final model is validated using two rounds of the Delphi method, with the participation of national disaster management experts, practitioners and scientists.

Research limitations/implications

Although the whole model could be used all around the world, the main source of data validating the proposed model is limited to the expert’s opinions in a developing country (I. R. Iran.) and the geographical conditions of Iran are considered as a core of attention in response to natural disasters. Based on the indicators for choosing Delphi participants and experts, only 43 qualified experts are selected to validate the model. The main focus of this research is on natural disasters issues.

Practical implications

This study showed that while there has been a scattered global effort to recognize the increasing uncertainties in diverse disciplines, very little work in academic foresight has been undertaken to identify how it could be implemented. In particular, a series of factors in foresight processes is identified based on the comparative study and some additional elements are added to precisely identify the disaster management context and the most suitable model for national foresight implementation in disaster management.

Originality/value

The main value of this research paper is to clarify the exact relationship between the two interdisciplinary fields; the relationship between the key concepts of “futures studies” and “disaster management” has been thoroughly established. Also, a specific conceptual model for enriching the “pre-foresight” stage and selecting a proper “foresight approach” in “disaster management” is provided. This model has been validated through two rounds of the Delphi method. Finally, a cumulative framework of foresight patterns that includes the new model is presented to be applied in areas especially related to “natural disaster management”.

Details

foresight, vol. 20 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2010

Jan Erik Karlsen, Erik F. Øverland and Hanne Karlsen

This article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are

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Abstract

Purpose

This article aims to contribute to futures theory building by assessing the inherent ontological and epistemological presumptions in foresight studies. Such premises, which are usually embedded in foresight studies, are contrasted with sociological imagination and contemporary social science discourse.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is a conceptual analysis of theoretical assumptions embedded in foresight studies.

Findings

Sociological lenses, including concepts like anticipation, latency, time, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity, change and plurality of images, offer clarity in terms of both futures studies and foresights.

Research limitations/implications

Explicating presumptions embedded in foresight methods helps recognition of how such methods shape the concepts of future and time. This is vital for assessment of the analytical products of foresights studies.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the ambition of linking the theoretical world of futures research and the practical world of foresights closer together by explicating key concepts and implicit assumptions in both fields.

Details

Foresight, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 August 2014

Eva Hideg, Erzsébet Nováky and Péter Alács

The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region.

Design/methodology/approach

A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed, which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too.

Findings

Personal meetings with small and medium enterprise (SME) stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around the research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running.

Research limitations/implications

The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process.

Practical implications

The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organizational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas.

Social implications

Application of interactive foresight process can contribute to the development of anticipatory democracy.

Originality/value

A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and cooperative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.

Details

Foresight, vol. 16 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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