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The purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.
Design/methodology/approach
The user experiences of the futures wheel method are investigated through questionnaire answers of 114 master’s level students and real estate experts taking part in future wheel workshops.
Findings
The futures wheel method could enhance future-oriented thinking and decision-making in the real estate field. The respondents see futures thinking as an important skill and recognize several advantages concerning the method.
Practical implications
The futures wheel method bears great potential to be used in the real estate sector and it could be a fruitful addition to the curriculums at different education levels in real estate studies.
Social implications
Futures thinking is essential when aiming for sustainable decisions in the real estate field which again would benefit the whole surrounding society.
Originality/value
This paper is the first published paper concentrating on the user experiences of the future wheel method in the real estate sector. The benefits and the disadvantages of the method are investigated but also the attitudes indicating the potential of the method to be successfully adopted in the field are analyzed.
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Elaine Worzala and David Wyman
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) are terms the military have coined to describe the environment they often operate in. This paper examines how this…
Abstract
Purpose
Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) are terms the military have coined to describe the environment they often operate in. This paper examines how this decision-making framework can be used to better inform real estate investment and development. In celebration of this journal's 40th anniversary, we also explore how VUCA can be related to and expand on the teachings of Dr. James A. Graaskamp who published his seminal piece on the Fundamentals of Real Estate Development (1981) the same year. In that piece, he highlights the importance of paying attention to the human factor, the consumers of real estate.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a thought piece on an alternative decision-making framework that can help capture the dynamic environment that commercial real estate investors and developers are currently working in. VUCA captures the difficulty of predicting the future in a world of accelerating, unpredictable change. This is particularly important in today's rapidly changing world caused not only by the current COVID-19 pandemic but also the exponential growth of the proptech industry as well as the increasing risks and opportunities associated with climate change that continues to impact the built environment.
Findings
This is not a traditional research project with empirical findings. We are presenting an alternative framework for thinking about making investment decisions in these current volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous times today and in the future. In addition, the importance of multidisciplinary training and the human factor are stressed.
Research limitations/implications
There are no limitations to this research as it is the ideas of the authors. Implications are to help real estate investors, developers and educators better understand the environment that they are working in.
Practical implications
VUCA captures better the dynamic nature of real estate investments compared to traditional analysis. It helps one better analyze the risks and returns but also to acknowledge that there is a lot you cannot predict and there are many exogenous variables that can, at times, completely change the rules of the game. Flexibility and adaptability are essential tools for working in a VUCA environment. In addition, the human factor plays an increasingly important role and real estate investors and developers that clearly understand this and focus on the consumer will likely be more successful.
Originality/value
We believe that this is the first time that VUCA has been used in the real estate academic literature.
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This paper reports the progress of, and results from, a major foresight and scenario planning exercise concerned with the future of real estate. The project first explored the…
Abstract
This paper reports the progress of, and results from, a major foresight and scenario planning exercise concerned with the future of real estate. The project first explored the general climate of change within which real estate decisions will have to be made. It then identified specific real estate opportunities and tested alternative strategies which might emerge as a result of that change. A further objective was to verify the use of foresight through scenario planning as a credible method of fostering a learning culture within the property professions and helping in the future proofing of current decision making.
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Christopher W. Starr, Jesse Saginor and Elaine Worzala
Industry 4.0 recognizes a broad set of technologies that rapidly redefine industry, including real estate. These broad technologies include the Internet of things (IoT), cloud…
Abstract
Purpose
Industry 4.0 recognizes a broad set of technologies that rapidly redefine industry, including real estate. These broad technologies include the Internet of things (IoT), cloud computing, decision automation, machine learning and artificial intelligence. This paper explores applies Industry 4.0 to commercial real estate, resulting in a framework defined here as Real Estate 4.0, a concept that encompasses fintech and proptech.
Design/methodology/approach
This research paper examines Industry 4.0 technology to construct a framework for Real Estate 4.0. We also focus on how the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating proptech, particularly as it relates to getting employees back into their traditional work environments.
Findings
As a research paper, this is not a traditional research project with empirical findings. It is a primer on how the rapidly changing technologies of Industry 4.0 are now disrupting and transforming real estate today into what we are calling Real Estate 4.0.
Practical implications
Practitioner insight and future research are informed by a framework for Real Estate 4.0 drawn from the technologies of Industry 4.0. Additional implications are outlined for practical, systemic change as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic within the scope of Real Estate 4.0 technology.
Originality/value
This is a combined effort by experts in three contributing disciplines: systems science, planning and real estate. Our intent is to provide a primer for those of us in the latter two fields so that we can embrace the rapidly changing built environment landscape as it adjusts and adapts to a post COVID-19 environment that will be critical to maintain real estate investment values and enhance the real estate user's experience.
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Guido Migliaccio and Andrea De Palma
This study illustrates the economic and financial dynamics of the sector, analysing the evolution of the main ratios of profitability and financial structure of 1,559 Italian real…
Abstract
Purpose
This study illustrates the economic and financial dynamics of the sector, analysing the evolution of the main ratios of profitability and financial structure of 1,559 Italian real estate companies divided into the three macro-regions: North, Centre and South, in the period 2011–2020. In this way, it is also possible to verify the responsiveness to the 2020 pandemic crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis uses descriptive statistics tools and the ANOVA method of analysis of variance, supplemented by the Tukey–Kramer test, to identify significant differences between the three Italian macro-regions.
Findings
The study shows the increase in profitability after the 2008 crisis, despite its reverberation in the years 2012–2013. The financial structure of companies improved almost everywhere. The pandemic had modest effects on performance.
Research limitations/implications
In the future, other indices should be considered to gain a more comprehensive view. This is a quantitative study based on financial statements data that neglects other important economic and social factors.
Practical implications
Public policies could use this study for better interventions to support the sector. In addition, internal management can compare their company's performance with the industry average to identify possible improvements.
Social implications
The research analyses an economic field that employs a large number of people, especially when considering the construction and real estate services covered by this analysis.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the literature by providing a quantitative analysis of industry dynamics, with comparative information that can be deduced from financial statements over the years.
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A first exploration of the impact of blockchain on real estate in the Netherlands took place in 2017. In the follow-up, several blockchain and real estate studies have appeared…
Abstract
Purpose
A first exploration of the impact of blockchain on real estate in the Netherlands took place in 2017. In the follow-up, several blockchain and real estate studies have appeared with research on real estate and blockchain worldwide. In view of the previous research, the question remained as to what is now happening worldwide in the field of blockchain and real estate. This has resulted in the start-up of the Foundation for International Blockchain and Real Estate Expertise (FIBREE) network. This network has led to the launch of two investigations: Industry Report Blockchain Real Estate 2019 on exploration of international products and a database exploring blockchain and real estate on exploring (inter)national research. This paper aims to provides an overview and analysis of all relevant scientific publications – targeted on the Netherlands – and does so within a context of a first small international exploration of international research, experts and products – in particular land registration.
Design/methodology/approach
I have asked everybody at the Regionals Chairs of FIBREE to collect data with info about which blockchain and real estate product-suppliers or initiatives do you see, which research-output on blockchain and real estate is there and who are the experts with which specific expertise? This paper provides an overview and analysis of all relevant scientific publications – targeted on the Netherlands – and does so within a context of a first small international exploration of international research, experts and products – in particular land registration.
Findings
This paper provides an overview and analysis of all relevant scientific publications – targeted on the Netherlands – and does so within a context of a first small international exploration of international research, experts and products – in particular land registration.
Research limitations/implications
A question that remains is to continue to look at existing markets or too disruptive innovation newcomers in the blockchain market. The question is whether blockchain is only a technological disruption or a real game changer and whether the entire value chain of the market is going to embrace this. Confidence in blockchain is therefore a precondition for guiding that disruption where (new) companies use new technology to offer cheaper and superior alternatives in the market. But the big question is how quickly blockchain will develop as well as all its applications.
Practical/social implications
A question that remains is to continue to look at existing markets or too disruptive innovation newcomers in the blockchain market. The question is whether blockchain is only a technological disruption or a real game changer and whether the entire value chain of the market is going to embrace this. Confidence in blockchain is therefore a precondition for guiding that disruption where (new) companies use new technologies to offer cheaper and superior alternatives in the market. But the big question is how quickly blockchain will develop as well as all its applications.
Originality/value
A first exploration of the influence of blockchain on real estate in the Netherlands took place in 2017. In the follow-up, several blockchain and real estate studies appear with research about real estate and blockchain worldwide.
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This paper seeks to critically review the conceptual frameworks that have been developed for assessing the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on real estate.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper seeks to critically review the conceptual frameworks that have been developed for assessing the impact of information and communications technology (ICT) on real estate.
Design/methodology/approach
The research is based on a critical review of existing literature and draws from examples of previous empirical research in the field.
Findings
The paper suggests that a “socio‐technical framework” is more appropriate to examine ICT impact in real estate than other “deterministic” frameworks. Therefore, ICT is an important part of the new economy, but must be seen in the context of a number of other social and economic factors.
Research limitations/implications
The research is based on a qualitative assessment of existing frameworks, and by using examples from commercial real estate, assesses the extent to which a “socio‐technical” framework can aid understanding of ICT impact.
Practical implications
The paper is important in highlighting a number of the main issues in conceptualising ICT impact in real estate and also critically examines the emergence of a new economy in the information society within the general context of real estate. The paper also highlights research gaps in the field.
Originality/value
The paper deconstructs the myths of the “death of real estate” and “productivity increase means jobs loss”, in relation to office real estate. Finally, it examines some of the ways in which ICT is impacting on real estate and suggests the most important components for a future research agenda in the field of ICT and real estate impact, and will be of value to property investors, facilities managers, developers, financiers, and others.
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Digital and information technologies (IT) are becoming silently pervasive in old-fashioned real estate markets. This paper focuses on three important avenues for the diffusion of…
Abstract
Purpose
Digital and information technologies (IT) are becoming silently pervasive in old-fashioned real estate markets. This paper focuses on three important avenues for the diffusion of IT in commercial real estate: online brokerage and sales, the commoditization of space and Fintech in mortgage and equity funding. We describe the main new markets and products created by this IT revolution. The focus is on the pioneering US market, with some attention devoted to the specific firms and institutions taking these innovations into the mainstream. We also carefully analyze the economic underpinnings from which the new technologies can expect to generate cash flows, thus becoming viable—or not. Finally, we discuss their likely impact on established players in the commercial real estate arena.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper, the author chooses to focus on three separate arenas where the IT revolution—sometimes referred to as Proptech, as applied to real estate—is having discernible impacts: sales and brokerage, space commoditization and online finance platforms. The author invites the reader to think seriously about the economic fundamentals that may—or may not—sustain new business models in Proptech. Real estate economists and investors alike need to be critical of new business models, especially when they are being aggressively marketed by their promoters. Trying to avoid any hype, the author provides thoughts about the likely impact of the innovations on their markets, guided by economic and finance theory, and previous experience.
Findings
The author evaluates the evolution of commercial real estate brokerage. While innovations will, no doubt, have an impact on the ways in which we buy and lease commercial properties, the lessons from the housing market should make us skeptical about the possibility of the new technologies dramatically facilitating disintermediation in this market. In fact, new oligopolies seem to be emerging with regard to market data provision.
Practical implications
Proptech will change some aspects of the real estate industry, but not others!
Originality/value
As change pervades the property industry, only a relatively few research pieces are illustrating or—more importantly—providing insights about the likely economic and financial impacts of IT penetration. Similarly, only a few papers have so far addressed the economic viability of the alternative business models of tech startups targeting real estate markets and transactions.
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Nicolle Montgomery, Graham Squires and Iqbal Syed
The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on the Disruptive Innovation Theory and on the disruptive potential of real estate crowdfunding (RECF) in the real estate…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to review the literature on the Disruptive Innovation Theory and on the disruptive potential of real estate crowdfunding (RECF) in the real estate finance industry, assessing whether RECF constitutes a potentially disruptive innovation to the real estate finance industry. Based on a review and synthesis of the literature, the paper advances an initial conceptual framework of core characteristics of disruptive innovations. This framework is used to examine the disruptive potential of RECF in the real estate finance industry.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is a systematic literature review that synthesizes and analyzes relevant extant research articles retrieved from online databases.
Findings
Findings suggest that according to the theory of disruptive innovations, and the core characteristics of disruptive innovations, RECF is a potentially disruptive innovation to the real estate finance industry. RECF seems to generally align with the classic characteristics of disruptive innovations. A more comprehensive and systematic analysis, supported by empirical data, is necessary to evaluate whether and to what extent RECF constitutes a disruptive innovation to the real estate finance industry.
Research limitations/implications
This study has only captured and reviewed articles published and available in database searches. RECF is a nascent field that has recently begun receiving academic attention.
Practical implications
Real estate plays an integral part in the economy, and the way it is financed has become an increasingly important issue following the Global Financial Crisis. This paper provides useful insights for assessing whether and to what extent RECF may be disruptive to the real estate finance industry.
Social implications
RECF may potentially improve accessibility and affordability of real estate finance, thereby helping to address the problem of shortage of real estate project finance.
Originality/value
While RECF is portrayed in the academic and gray literature as a disruptive innovation, its disruptive potential is yet to be determined. This paper advances an initial conceptual framework of defining characteristics of disruptive innovations. This framework is used to evaluate RECF as a potentially disruptive innovation in the real estate project finance industry. This study forms a basis for future empirical examination of the disruptive potential of RECF in the real estate finance industry.
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Many studies have analysed the impact of various variables on the ability of companies to raise capital. While most of these studies are sector-agnostic, literature on the effects…
Abstract
Purpose
Many studies have analysed the impact of various variables on the ability of companies to raise capital. While most of these studies are sector-agnostic, literature on the effects of macroeconomic variables on sectors that established over the last 20 years like property technology and financial technology, is scarce. This study aims to identify macroeconomic factors that influence the ability of both sectors and is extended by real estate variables.
Design/methodology/approach
The impact of macroeconomic and real estate related factors is analysed using multiple linear regression and quantile regression. The sample covers 338 observations for PropTech and 595 for FinTech across 18 European countries and 5 deal types between 2000–2001 with each observation representing the capital invested per year for each deal type and country.
Findings
Besides confirming a significant impact of macroeconomic variables on the amount of capital invested, this study finds that additionally the real estate transaction volume positively impacts PropTech while the real estate yield-bond-gap negatively impacts FinTech.
Practical implications
For PropTech and FinTech companies and their investors it is critical to understand the dynamic with mac-ro variables and also the real estate industry. The direct connection identified in this paper is critical for a holistic understanding of the effects of measurable real estate variables on capital investments into both sectors.
Originality/value
The analysis fills the gap in the literature between variables affecting investment into firms and effects of the real estate industry on the investment activity into PropTech and FinTech.
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