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This study aims to examine the underlying statements with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism found in the state-of-the-nation address (SONA) speeches of six Philippine presidents – from 1987 to 2019. The researchers believe that president SONAs are usually reflective of their plans and are strong indicators of their interest, which could particularly influence the Philippine tourism planning and development. Currently, the lack of guidance in the theoretical framework and research discussion in exploring the Philippine tourism policy and development priorities using presidents’ SONA speeches are found wanting. Scenario planning approach was used as a framework.

Scenario planning approach requires inputs from an advisory group to create scenario drivers. As inputs, the presidents’ SONA speeches were used in this study while the researchers assumed the role of scenario thinkers. The speeches were downloaded and imported into a qualitative data software. Through a series of text search with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism, underlying statements were subjected to content analysis to create nodes. The nodes were used as the basis in creating scenario drivers, which became the basis in creating the model. The models underwent the following validation procedures: researcher, concept and literature review.

Based on the data, there are three identified major drivers of the present and future of Philippine tourism; these are tourism policy, tourism development and prospects for the future (temporal element). It also indicates tourism development and temporal element as dominant, with very few on tourism policies. By combining the tourism policy and tourism development, the development of the tourism policy and development confluence model was created. Meanwhile, the addition of the temporal element provided a third scenario driver that led to the creation of the dimensions of tourism policy and development scenarios.

The developed model can be adapted to many contexts that extend even outside of tourism. The public tourism offices, such as the department of tourism and the regional, provincial, city and municipal tourism offices, can use the model to help them prioritise tourism development programmes and lobby for tourism policy creation.

The model will significantly assist decision-makers and policymakers to be conscious in crafting and enacting their tourism plans and programmes. It presents tourism policy and tourism development as scenario drivers that are interrelated; hence, a mutual relationship between the executive and legislative sectors of the government can be expected.

The study positions its originality and value in three areas: scenario planning, tourism future and president’s interest in tourism. In terms of scenario planning, the study was able to present interaction among three scenario drivers compared to most models that only have two. In the area of tourism future studies, this study claims that qualitative historical data can also be used to predict future scenarios. Despite the limited literature examining the tourism interest of the top-level administration, using speeches made by head of state is found plausible to predict the future of Philippine tourism.

Although trends such as digitisation, demographic change and flexibilisation of work have been recognised by many human resource (HR) practitioners, this viewpoint paper argues that future-orientation in the HR sector could benefit from making use of the foresight perspective. Foresight is understood as the systematic, method-guided analysis and discussion of possible future developments. The goal is to build future-robust structures in organisations at an early stage and to identify emerging skill needs. This paper aims to make HR professionals aware of the potential of foresight for their strategic activities.

Introducing the approach of strategic foresight to the field of HR, this study derives the argumentation from a discussion of literature and practitioners’ experiences.

So far, foresight in companies has mainly been conducted by strategy and innovation units, with HR and organisational development playing a subordinate role. However, foresight can contribute to gaining a competitive advantage and proactively shape future success factors in the organisation.

The authors advise practitioners to begin implementing strategic foresight within HR departments and organisational development to build future-proof organisations.

This paper introduces strategic foresight to the field of HR and points to a lack of integration between potentially existing foresight activities and people and culture considerations for the future.

To explore the future visions outlined in one of the first academic books on UK tourism to venture into tourism futures. Through today’s lens, their visions are explored through three topics: Future Markets and Destinations; Future Resources; and the Future Organization of Tourism.

Exploring the backstory, key drivers and tipping points of UK tourism development and tourism education during the 1960s and 1970s, they help to understand the rationale for the authors 1974 future visions of UK tourism. These visions are tested against reality, using a mixture of data, softer evidence and the authors’ judgements.

Acknowledging the authors showed courage in presenting their future visions, when so little was known about the development of tourism, let alone tourism futures. The article highlights the successes and failures of their future visions across 20 tourism sectors, through 55 tourism forecasts. The reasons for weaknesses in some of their forecasts, and their foresight in highlighting little known issues are explored, along with key learning points for tourism futurists.

The future visions of UK tourism were tested against data and other evidence, but this was not always possible. Therefore, the success or failures of some of the visions are based on the authors’ judgement.

Over the past 50 years, there has been a steady growth in tourism futures studies. Given the recent increase in awareness of history in driving futures thinking, perhaps now is the time to apply this viewpoint to previously published tourism futures studies because such reviews provide a timely reminder of the transient nature of tourism futures gazing.

The purpose of this paper is to identify and prioritize the positive and negative impacts of tourism on the process of tourism growth at a national scale in Iran, by taking into account the reviews of previous studies, views of experts and structural analysis.

In this investigation, structural analysis technique has been used to identify the correlation between variables by using mix method data analysis. By using cross-impact analysis (N × N integer matrix) in the form of the Micmac method, the economic, sociocultural and environmental factors have been evaluated.

The results of the distribution of factors in the coordinate axes and the graphs between them indicate their features, and for reaching a sustainable system of tourism development, at first, priority should be given to the negative influential factors, especially the environmental fields, and then the focus should be on the decrease of the dual and risk variables as they cannot be anticipated.

For the rapid growth of tourism in many countries, governments ensure that policies have been heeded in designing and preparing general plans of the country to understand how the development trend is moving on. In this respect, arisen impacts of tourism system are one of the important issues during the development path and in the field of tourism future. Because of the complexity and broadness of tourism activities, these impacts have also many interconnected dimensions that should also be considered while studying tourism impacts.

Future is rarely explicitly addressed or problematized in business network research. This study aims to examine the possibilities of developing a business actor’s future orientation to network studies and imports ideas and concepts from futures research to support the development.

The study is conceptual and interdisciplinary. The authors critically analyze how extant studies grounded in the sensemaking view and process research approach integrate future time and how theoretical myopia hinders the adoption of a future orientation.

The prevailing future perspective is restricted to managers’ perceptions and actions at present, ignoring the anticipation and exploration of alternative longer-term futures. Future time is generally conceived as embedded in managers’ cognitive processes or is seen as part of the ongoing interaction, where the time horizon to the future is not noticed or is at best short.

To enable a forward-looking perspective, researchers should move the focus from expectation building in business interaction to purposeful preparation of alternative future(s) and from the view of seeing future as enacted in the present to envisioning of both near-term and more distant futures.

This study addresses the growing need of business actors to anticipate future developments in the rapidly changing market conditions and to innovate and change business practices to save the planet for future generations.

This study elaborates on actors’ future orientation to business markets and networks, proposes the integration of network research concepts with concepts from futures studies and poses new types of research questions for future research.

Amazon Explore is a new online experience product from Amazon, which offers live stream sightseeing of destinations around the world. This paper aims to provide a first insight into how exactly Amazon Explore enters the virtual experience (VE) industry, and discuss the possible implications of its business model for the future of virtual and offline travel experiences.

Qualitative and quantitative methods of content analysis methods were employed in this study. The sample of this research consisted of 175 Amazon Explore products. Firstly, the authors analysed the content of each product, and then quantitative method were used to present the data. With this analysis, the authors presented how Amazon Explore is testing the foundations for new business models, and discuss the possible implications for the future of tourism. One year later, those same Amazon Explore products were reviewed again to check development progress. The following were the main questions regarding VE: How interactive are Amazon Explore products? How does Amazon Explore aim to ensure the monetisation of these products in an economically sustainable way in order to go beyond the “freemium” business model, often associated with VE as just another destination marketing tool?

This article presents the discussions of VE and virtual reality (VR). The authors determined the level of interactivity of the diverse VE offered themes with a model of four levels of interactivity. The results show that the analysed products achieve mostly only low levels of interaction. Regarding monetisation, Amazon Explore shows three possible future directions in the development of VE: as a marketing tool, as an extension of the offline experience and as potentially someday replacing real travel as part of the future monetisation scenario.

The article offers the first insights into Amazon's extension into the realm of VE in two time periods in 2020 and 2021, and, based on these preliminary results, discusses four possible scenarios for the future development of VE monetisation.

Under the dual pressure of resources and environment, many countries have focused on the role of railways in promoting low-carbon development of integrated transportation and of even the whole society. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive study on methods to improve railway energy efficiency in other national railways and achievements made by China’s railways in the past practice, and then to propose ways in which in the future China’s railways could rationally select the path of improving energy efficiency regarding the needs of the nation's ever-shifting development and carry out the re-engineering for mechanism innovation in energy conservation and emission reduction process.

This paper first studies other national railways that have tried to promote the improvement of railway energy efficiency by the ways of technology, management and structural reconstruction to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Among them, the effect of structural energy conservation and emission reduction has become more prominent. It has become the main energy conservation and emission reduction measure adopted by foreign railway sectors. The practice of energy conservation and emission reduction of railways in various countries has tended to shift from a technical level to a structural one.

Key aspects in improving energy efficiency include re-optimization of energy structure, re-innovation of energy-saving technologies and optimization of transportation organization. Path selection includes continuing to promote electrified railway construction, increasing the use of new and renewable energy sources, and promoting the reform of railway transportation organizations.

This paper provides further challenges and research directions in the proposed area and has referential value for the methodologies, approaches for practice in a Chinese context. To achieve the expected goals, relevant supporting policies and measures need to be formulated, including actively guiding integrated transportation toward railway-oriented development, promoting innovation in energy-saving and emission reduction mechanisms and strengthening policy incentives, focusing on improving the energy efficiency of railways through market behavior. At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to new phenomena in the railway industry for track and analysis.

In recent years, China's marine industry has maintained rapid growth in general, and marine-related economic activities have continued to improve. The purpose of this research is to analyze the basic situation of China's marine economy development, identify the problems therein, forecast development trends and propose policy recommendations accordingly.

This research conducts a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the development of China's marine economy with rich data in diversified aspects. The current situation of China's marine economy development is analyzed from the perspective of scale and structure, and the external and internal development environment of China's marine economy is discussed. With the application of measurement and prediction method such as trend extrapolation, exponential smoothing, grey forecasting and neural network method, the future situation of China's marine economy development is forecasted.

In a complex environment where uncertainties at home and abroad have increased significantly, China's marine economy development suffers tremendous downward pressure in recent years. As China has achieved major achievements in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic, the marine economy development will gradually return to normal. It is estimated that the gross marine production value in 2022 will exceed 10 trillion yuan. China's marine economy will continue to maintain a steady growth trend in the future, and its development prospects will remain promising.

This research explores the current situation and trends of China's marine economy development and puts forward policy recommendations to promote the steady and health development of China's marine economy accordingly.

The purpose of this paper is to present the way in which the mainland of the German Wadden Sea area transitioned from traditional sectors into an almost entirely tourism destination, and which factors contributed to and/or necessitated such a development.

The overall approach in this paper has adopted a focus on an extensive case study of the German mainland of the Wadden Sea area. Scientific articles have been used to, first, structuring the theoretical framework and then to gain a general understanding on what a transition exactly entails. As a result, the theoretical framework has been written in an examination of existing literature on transitions and functioned as the theoretical support and foundation for the case study analysis. The analysis has been shaped by means of a number of scientific articles, branch reports, books and websites that, in most instances, specifically focused on the chosen case. Since the area of study is located in Germany, specific literature on this area was mostly limited to the German language, a language of which the author has a basic, yet not thorough, understanding. However, the overall scope of the developments in the case in regard to the transition from agricultural and fishing communities to communities in which tourism plays a substantial role has been understandable.

One of the most important sectors that economically benefit the Wadden Sea region, especially on the Dutch and German Wadden islands, is tourism. While tourism development on the Dutch mainland is minimal, the sector considerably developed in the past few decades on the German mainland, generally as a result of declining yields through multifarious unfavorable developments in traditional sectors such as agriculture and fishing, amongst others. Throughout previous centuries, Norden-Norddeich possessed some small-scale tourism facilities; however, negative developments in those traditional sectors required the municipality to prevent an impasse situation, resulting in altering business models and upscaling tourism facilities. Initiatives in different layers (micro, meso and macro) were initiated and gradually intensified in order to develop Norden-Norddeich as a counter destination for the expensive German islands. Following the phases of transition, Norden-Norddeich gradually developed and can now be regarded as a stable and dynamic holiday destination as well as a system that nowadays almost completely adheres to tourism. It took Norden-Norddeich ten years to transition toward tourism. Presently, Norden-Norddeich is the most visited mainland destination at the German Wadden Sea coast. In contrast, small-scale activities are set up in the mainland part of the Wadden Sea area in the Netherlands, but miss out on effective collaboration between different stakeholders that are involved in both planning and management (such as policy makers) and executive roles (such as the people who organize activities and/or facilities). Furthermore, the area is managed in such a way that does not contribute yet to upscaling economic development, mostly as a result of regulatory issues that hinder such developments. However, increasing efforts by several stakeholders are being taken that should ultimately lead to a sustainable socio-economic development of the Dutch mainland part of the Wadden Sea area.

Analyzing the stages of transition on the German mainland of the Wadden area might function as an example for stakeholders in villages or cities located on the mainland of the Dutch Wadden to become aware of how processes of tourism transitions occur, what factors are needed to start off such a transition and what effects a transition might have on the revitalization of a certain area. Moreover, the case of Norden-Norddeich could stand out as an example for Dutch stakeholders in the Wadden region to perceive in what way a locked-in situation could be prevented or solved by shifting from one system to another by taking on a wide range of initiatives that might be led and stimulated by different actors.

The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.

The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.

The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.

The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.

The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.

The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.

The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.