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Book part
Publication date: 7 February 2024

Rachel Gifford, Arno van Raak, Mark Govers and Daan Westra

While uncertainty has always been a feature of the healthcare environment, its pace and scope are rapidly increasing, fueled by myriad factors such as technological advancements…

Abstract

While uncertainty has always been a feature of the healthcare environment, its pace and scope are rapidly increasing, fueled by myriad factors such as technological advancements, the threat and frequency of disruptive events, global economic developments, and increasing complexity. Contemporary healthcare organizations thus persistently face what is known as “deep uncertainty,” which obscures their ability to predict outcomes of strategic action and decision-making, presenting them with novel challenges and threatening their survival. Persistent, deep uncertainty challenges us to revisit and reconsider how we think about uncertainty and the strategic actions needed by organizations to thrive under these circumstances. Simply put, how can healthcare organizations thrive in the face of deeply uncertain environments? We argue that healthcare organizations need to employ both adaptive and creative strategic approaches in order to effectively meet patients' needs and capture value in the long-term future. The chapter concludes by offering two ways organizations can build the dynamic capabilities needed to employ such approaches.

Details

Research and Theory to Foster Change in the Face of Grand Health Care Challenges
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-655-3

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 8 February 2023

Edoardo Ramalli and Barbara Pernici

Experiments are the backbone of the development process of data-driven predictive models for scientific applications. The quality of the experiments directly impacts the model…

Abstract

Purpose

Experiments are the backbone of the development process of data-driven predictive models for scientific applications. The quality of the experiments directly impacts the model performance. Uncertainty inherently affects experiment measurements and is often missing in the available data sets due to its estimation cost. For similar reasons, experiments are very few compared to other data sources. Discarding experiments based on the missing uncertainty values would preclude the development of predictive models. Data profiling techniques are fundamental to assess data quality, but some data quality dimensions are challenging to evaluate without knowing the uncertainty. In this context, this paper aims to predict the missing uncertainty of the experiments.

Design/methodology/approach

This work presents a methodology to forecast the experiments’ missing uncertainty, given a data set and its ontological description. The approach is based on knowledge graph embeddings and leverages the task of link prediction over a knowledge graph representation of the experiments database. The validity of the methodology is first tested in multiple conditions using synthetic data and then applied to a large data set of experiments in the chemical kinetic domain as a case study.

Findings

The analysis results of different test case scenarios suggest that knowledge graph embedding can be used to predict the missing uncertainty of the experiments when there is a hidden relationship between the experiment metadata and the uncertainty values. The link prediction task is also resilient to random noise in the relationship. The knowledge graph embedding outperforms the baseline results if the uncertainty depends upon multiple metadata.

Originality/value

The employment of knowledge graph embedding to predict the missing experimental uncertainty is a novel alternative to the current and more costly techniques in the literature. Such contribution permits a better data quality profiling of scientific repositories and improves the development process of data-driven models based on scientific experiments.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 November 2022

Phil Kelly

In a rapidly changing world, organisations are constantly presented with threats and opportunities and the need to be responsive and resilient. This necessitates developing risk…

Abstract

Purpose

In a rapidly changing world, organisations are constantly presented with threats and opportunities and the need to be responsive and resilient. This necessitates developing risk and uncertainty management capabilities within organisations. This article aims to consider risk and uncertainty competence, knowledge, skills, attitudes and the behaviours required by contemporary managers to protect their organisations from threat and harm, whilst seizing opportunity and reward.

Design/methodology/approach

This article presents answers to three fundamental questions: (1) Do all managers (those not specialising in risk management) need to be competent in risk and uncertainty management? (2) What does risk competence mean? and (3) How can managers develop the capabilities to become risk competent? The content can be used by practicing managers or educators to develop individual and ultimately organisational risk competence.

Findings

All contemporary managers should have some degree of risk competence. Risk competence behavioural indicators and requisite risk knowledge and skills are identified and discussed.

Originality/value

This article provides a contemporary view on risk and uncertainty management competence, drawing on relevant competence frameworks and the existing risk literature.

Details

Journal of Work-Applied Management, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2205-2062

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 June 2023

Muhammad Aftab, Maham Naeem, Muhammad Tahir and Izlin Ismail

Exchange rate volatility is an important factor affecting investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine the impact of uncertainties, in terms of changes in economic…

Abstract

Purpose

Exchange rate volatility is an important factor affecting investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine the impact of uncertainties, in terms of changes in economic policy, monetary policy and global financial markets, on exchange rate volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the GARCH (1,1) univariate model to calculate exchange rate volatility. Economic and monetary policy uncertainties are measured using news-based indices, while global financial market volatility is measured using the implied volatility index. Panel autoregressive distributed lag modeling is used to analyze the impact of uncertainty on exchange rate volatility in the short and long run. The sample consists of 26 developed and emerging markets from 2005 to 2020.

Findings

The study finds that economic policy uncertainty significantly increases exchange rate volatility. Similarly, global financial market uncertainty leads to increased exchange rate volatility. The effect of US monetary policy uncertainty reduces exchange rate volatility.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature on exchange rate fluctuations by examining the impact of uncertainties on exchange rate volatility. The study uses novel news-based indices for measuring economic and monetary policy uncertainties and includes a broader sample of emerging and advanced markets. The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Thomas Berker, Hanne Henriksen, Thomas Edward Sutcliffe and Ruth Woods

This study aims to convey lessons learned from two sustainability initiatives at Norway’s largest university. This contributes to knowledge-based discussions of how future…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to convey lessons learned from two sustainability initiatives at Norway’s largest university. This contributes to knowledge-based discussions of how future, sustainable higher education institutions (HEIs) infrastructures should be envisioned and planned if the fundamental uncertainty of the future development of learning, researching and teaching is acknowledged.

Design/methodology/approach

This study was submitted on 24 January 2023 and revised on 14 September 2023. HEIs, particularly when they are engaged in research activities, have a considerable environmental footprint. At the same time, HEIs are the main producers and disseminators of knowledge about environmental challenges and their employees have a high awareness of the urgent need to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss. In this study, the gap between knowledge and environmental performance is addressed as a question of infrastructural change, which is explored in two case studies.

Findings

The first case study presents limitations of ambitious, top-down sustainability planning for HEI infrastructures: support from employees and political support are central for this strategy to succeed, but both could not be secured in the case presented leading to an abandonment of all sustainability ambitions. The second case study exposes important limitations of a circular approach: regulatory and legal barriers were found against a rapid and radical circular transformation, but also more fundamental factors such as the rationality of an institutional response to uncertainty by rapid cycles of discarding the old and investing in new equipment and facilities.

Research limitations/implications

Being based on qualitative methods, the case studies do not claim representativity for HEIs worldwide or even in Norway. Many of the factors described are contingent on their specific context. The goal, instead, is to contribute to learning by presenting an in-depth and context-sensitive report on obstacles encountered in two major sustainability initiatives.

Originality/value

Research reporting on sustainability initiatives too often focuses descriptively on the plans or reports the successes while downplaying problems and failures. This study deviates from this widespread practice by analysing reasons for failure informed by a theoretical frame (infrastructural change). Moreover, the juxtaposition of two cases within the same context shows the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to infrastructural change particularly clearly.

Details

International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1467-6370

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Suhaib Anagreh, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.

Findings

The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.

Originality/value

Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 August 2022

Arthur Kearney, Denis Harrington and Tazeeb Rajwani

This study aims to systematically review strategy making in the seaport context during a period of hyper uncertainty.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to systematically review strategy making in the seaport context during a period of hyper uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review using the context, intervention, method and outcome (CIMO) framework is conducted in the domains of strategy making and the port sector taking account of hyper uncertainty caused by Brexit.

Findings

Strategy making (under conditions of hyper uncertainty) is shown to evolve from both stakeholder/supply chain embedded relationships and from chief executive officer and extra organisational inputs. Through an iterative process of internal resourcing, stakeholder engagement strategy development can be seen to impact five key outcomes of an emerging strategy making under hyper uncertainty: economic returns; societal and regional impacts; deeper improved market engagement; improved environmental sensing and potential for dynamic capability development.

Research limitations/implications

The systematic review integrates the existing fragmented research landscape regarding strategy making under hyper uncertainty, provides future research trajectories and develops a framework emerging from the review.

Practical implications

The framework offers port management and policymakers a tool to improve their engagement with strategy making under hyper uncertainty and associated outcomes.

Originality/value

The systematic review consolidates the fragmented literature and presents future research trajectories. The framework of strategy making under hyper uncertainty developed from the CIMO framework develops existing knowledge and contributes to academic theory.

Details

International Journal of Organizational Analysis, vol. 31 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1934-8835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2022

Hedi Ben Haddad, Sohale Altamimi, Imed Mezghani and Imed Medhioub

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic…

113

Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic fluctuations and forecast economic trends.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an extension of the Jurado et al. (2015) procedure by combining financial uncertainty factors with their net spillover effects on GDP and inflation to construct an aggregate financial uncertainty index. The authors consider 13 monthly financial variables for Saudi Arabia from January 2010 to June 2021.

Findings

The empirical results show that the constructed financial uncertainty estimates are good leading indicators of economic activity. The robustness analysis suggests that the authors’ proposed financial uncertainty estimators outperform the alternative estimates used by other existing approaches to estimate the financial conditions index.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This study extends the empirical literature, from which the authors propose a novel conceptual framework for building a financial uncertainty index by combining the approach of Jurado et al. (2015) and the time-varying connectedness network approach proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020)

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 December 2021

Mohammad Azeem Khan, Masudul Hasan Adil and Shah Husain

The purpose of the paper is to address money demand instability and investigate the impact of economic uncertainty, stock market uncertainty and monetary uncertainty on money…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to address money demand instability and investigate the impact of economic uncertainty, stock market uncertainty and monetary uncertainty on money demand in India over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4.

Design/methodology/approach

The study checks the stationarity of the variables through standard unit root tests. Based on the mixed order of variables' integration, the authors adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to confirm the cointegration and check the stability of the money demand function (MDF).

Findings

The findings confirm the presence of cointegration and reveal a well-specified MDF, which exhibits stable parameters. Besides the conventional variables, all forms of uncertainties emerge as the essential long-term determinants of money demand. Long-run findings show that people demand more money to avoid the future financial crunch amid high economic, monetary and stock market uncertainties.

Practical implications

The paper recommends, based on the findings, incorporating the monetary aggregates in the monetary policy framework as one of the essential information variables to control the fluctuation in the price level under the current flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime.

Social implications

The findings also add to the knowledge of economic agents in terms of the overall response of individuals to changes in different forms of uncertainties, thereby helping to formulate their portfolios more diligently.

Originality/value

The current work is the first of its kind in the Indian context. The incorporation of uncertainty measures in the MDF adds to the existing knowledge on money demand.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 10
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 September 2021

Çağlayan Aslan and Senay Acikgoz

The purpose of this paper to examine how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) affects export flows of emerging market economies.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper to examine how global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) affects export flows of emerging market economies.

Design/methodology/approach

This study examines the effect of GEPU on 28 emerging markets' export performance. GEPU variable used in the authors’ empirical analysis is measured by partial least square (PLS) factor loading model with the help of 24 countries' economic policy uncertainty index. A panel vector autoregression (VAR) model is employed for the estimations and monthly data over the 2006:01–2019:12 period are used.

Findings

The empirical findings show that while the real external income is the main factor that affects export flows, the real exchange rate is the least effective variable with regard to the variance decomposition, which is not expected by the related economic theory. Panel VAR estimations results confirm the previous studies and find that GEPU affects export flows negatively and significantly.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the sole study in terms of focusing on the impacts of GEPU on the export volume of emerging markets. The contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, a large set of countries with monthly frequented data that assist to capture uncertainties better is used. Secondly, the global economic policy index is obtained by employing the PLS method, which provides more robust results that are calculated with respect to the dependent variable.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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