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Article
Publication date: 3 December 2019

Sahar Charfi, Salah BenHamad and Afif Masmoudi

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how monetary fundamentals affect exchange rate movements.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how monetary fundamentals affect exchange rate movements.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop this paper, a Bayesian Network modeling is applied to explore the causal interactions between monetary fundamentals and exchange rate fluctuations. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is performed to asses and estimate exchange rate behavior with uncertain monetary fundamentals. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test is used as suggested in the Econometric literature to determine the causality direction among factors.

Findings

The empirical findings show that money supply and interest rate have a significant positive effect on exchange rate, whereas inflation rate has a considerable negative effect on exchange rate. In addition, the authors deduce that real income has an indirect impact on exchange rate and a direct impact on inflation rate, interest rate and money supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows that monetary uncertainty has a considerable effect on exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, the Granger Causality test reveals that there is a unique unidirectional causality running from money supply to exchange rate.

Practical implications

The model can be considered as a vital management tool for international investors and financial analysts to explore the effect of monetary fundamentals on exchange rate behavior. It allows estimating exchange rate fluctuations with uncertain monetary factors.

Originality/value

This study is the first one which applied a Bayesian Network modeling to examine the exchange rate determination problem. Results of this research are presented under a clear graphical representation that can be easily useful by monetary policymakers and international traders to determine the influential monetary factors on exchange rate behavior. Also, the model will help them in estimating the effect of monetary uncertainty on exchange rate fluctuations.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

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Article
Publication date: 6 April 2012

Chetan Chawla, Mzamo Mangaliso, Bradford Knipes and Jeff Gauthier

The purpose of this paper is to explain the antecedents of environmental uncertainty in management using a historical framework. The goal of developing passion and…

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1044

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explain the antecedents of environmental uncertainty in management using a historical framework. The goal of developing passion and compassion in management practice and research cannot be achieved unless a better understanding is developed of the main challenge facing researchers and practitioners – uncertainty.

Design/methodology/approach

The antecedents of uncertainty in management are explored using a historical framework. This enables the generation of insights into the nature and use of uncertainty over the decades.

Findings

The importance of environmental uncertainty is escalating. The paper's historical, philosophical and critical view helps scholars explain and interpret uncertainty within their own research and formulate new research questions.

Originality/value

Understanding the epistemological assumptions underlying paradigms will better enable researchers and practitioners to face a future filled with uncertainty and equivocality.

Details

Journal of Management History, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-1348

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Article
Publication date: 19 August 2011

Alex M. Andrew

This paper aims to discuss at a fundamental level the observation that the world can be seen as grey, or uncertain.

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590

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to discuss at a fundamental level the observation that the world can be seen as grey, or uncertain.

Design/methodology/approach

Attention is given first to arguments that suggest that the future should be seen as totally unknown, or black. Reasons are given for dismissing these arguments, and then consideration is given to fundamental causes of uncertainty which prevent the world being white or totally known.

Findings

The treatment is at a fundamental level that has little bearing on current practical means of dealing with uncertainty, but it is claimed that consideration of fundamentals is often unexpectedly rewarding and therefore worth pursuing.

Practical implications

There are probably few practical implications, at least in the short term.

Originality/value

The viewpoints appear to have received little previous notice.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

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Book part
Publication date: 30 September 2016

Per L. Bylund and G. P. Manish

The goal of this paper is to analyze the views of Frank Knight and Ludwig von Mises on the topic of uncertainty and how it influences the theory of individual…

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to analyze the views of Frank Knight and Ludwig von Mises on the topic of uncertainty and how it influences the theory of individual decision-making and to trace out the implications of the same for the theories of entrepreneurship, equilibrium, and the firm. The paper adopts a historical approach in its analysis of the theory of uncertainty, with an extended discussion of the primary writings of Knight and Mises on this topic. It then uses the insights gleaned from this discussion in order to address issues and topics that have found a prominent place in the modern literature on entrepreneurship, equilibrium, and the firm that draws its inspiration from the Austrian School. The paper offers three main findings: in the realm of entrepreneurship it argues that there can be no theory of the entrepreneur without the concept of uncertainty provided by Knight and Mises, whereas with regard to the theory of equilibrium it focuses on highlighting the concept of an equilibrium with error prevalent in the Austrian tradition and on the implications that an explicit introduction of uncertainty has for the existence of a process of equilibration that pushes the economy toward a state of general equilibrium in real time. As regards the theory of the firm we find that a proper understanding of uncertainty ultimately reverses the direction of any causal explanation of economic organization, making the firm an outcome of dealing with uncertainty rather than a means to do so.

Details

Research in the History of Economic Thought and Methodology
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-962-6

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Book part
Publication date: 18 January 2022

Chrystalleni Aristidou, Kevin Lee and Kalvinder Shields

A novel approach to modeling exchange rates is presented based on a set of models distinguished by the drivers of the rate and regime duration. The models are combined…

Abstract

A novel approach to modeling exchange rates is presented based on a set of models distinguished by the drivers of the rate and regime duration. The models are combined into a “meta model” using model averaging and non-nested hypothesis-testing techniques. The meta model accommodates periods of stability and slowly evolving or abruptly changing regimes involving multiple drivers. Estimated meta models for five exchange rates provide a compelling characterization of their determination over the last 40 years or so, identifying “phases” during which the influences from policy and financial market responses to news succumb to equilibrating macroeconomic pressures and vice versa.

Details

Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-062-7

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Article
Publication date: 24 August 2012

Youmin Xi, Xiaojun Zhang and Jing Ge

The purpose of this paper is to address several challenges faced by organizational management in the contemporary context, and how managers can better reply to management…

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1158

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to address several challenges faced by organizational management in the contemporary context, and how managers can better reply to management challenges by integrating oriental and occidental philosophy and wisdom.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper first describes the characteristics of the contemporary management context and identifies challenges that managers are likely to encounter. The paper then investigates how oriental and occidental philosophy and wisdom reply to these management challenges, whilst also considering the relative advantages and disadvantages of both traditions. Based on the complementarity of these two traditions, the paper finally proposes a framework that integrates both oriental and occidental wisdom by HeXie Management Theory to better respond to management challenges.

Findings

The contemporary organizational environment is characterized by four key salient components: complexity, change, ambiguity, and uncertainty (CCAU). Managers are challenged by problems of determining causality, managing holistically, and adaptation to rapid change. Western philosophical approaches to confronting management challenges arising from CCAU, inherent in the wider economic environment, emphasize standardization and rational design on the basis of science, law, and religion. Conversely, Oriental philosophical approaches to management challenges oppose such rigid systems in favour of flexibility and adaptability which emphasize harmony and morality. Essentially, whereas western thought intends to limit the occurrence of unpredicted events through the development of scientific systems, oriental thinking aims to provide a flexible and fluid system which absorbs the effects of CCAU, thus limiting and using its impact. These two perspectives both have their own advantages and disadvantages when facing management challenges in the context of CCAU. By integrating these two complementary approaches, the authors propose HeXie Management Theory (HXMT). HXMT establishes a clear vision and mission to direct the development of organizations; to organize an integrated management system through the HeXie Theme and HeXie Coupling, and to apply the component “He Principle” and “Xie Principle” as basic mechanisms to cope with management challenges.

Originality/value

This study contributes to research on relationships between organizations and environment by providing a holistic analysis, and adds knowledge about how to reply to management challenges by constructing ambidextrous organizations based on HeXie Management Theory.

Details

Chinese Management Studies, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-614X

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Article
Publication date: 11 August 2021

Seok-Young Oh and Sehwa Kim

This study aims to investigate how the inter-organizational learning (inter-OL) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) promote intra-organizational learnings (intra-OL…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate how the inter-organizational learning (inter-OL) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) promote intra-organizational learnings (intra-OL) and how inter- and intra-OL jointly promote organizational innovation in the Korean electronics industry. This study also examines the moderating effect of organizational dynamism.

Design/methodology/approach

A unique theoretical model shows how inter-OL promotes organizational innovation through intra-OL, knowledge flows and stocks. Data was collected from 201 SMEs in the Korean electronics industry and analyzed by structural equation modeling.

Findings

The findings show that inter-OL directly and indirectly influences innovation. Inter-OL promotes both knowledge flows and stocks, but the only feedforward flows influence innovation through knowledge stocks while feedback flows directly influence innovation. Additionally, the study finds an indirect effect of inter-OL on knowledge stocks and a strong direct effect on innovation when dynamism is high. Intra-OL activities fully mediate between inter-OL and innovation when dynamism is low.

Research limitations/implications

This study uses single informants to measure all constructs. Future studies should use multiple informants.

Practical implications

This study shows that OL in SMEs is shaped by internal processes and external collaborations. Maintaining a connection with various external knowledge sources and creating collaborative opportunities to share learning experiences is critical to innovation.

Originality/value

This study is the first to empirically examine the relationship between inter- and intra-OL activities within a conceptual framework. The study provides a strategic view of how to facilitate OL activities considering the degree of organizational dynamism.

Details

Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1367-3270

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 1999

Franklin Becker

Over the last ten years interest in and implementation of different forms of alternative officing (AO) have increased dramatically. AO has, in fact, become simply another…

Abstract

Over the last ten years interest in and implementation of different forms of alternative officing (AO) have increased dramatically. AO has, in fact, become simply another tool in the real estate and FM space planning and design toolkit. This paper briefly describes different types of AO, and then suggests that AO, which has primarily responded to corporate drives to reduce costs, should broaden its focus to explore alternative ways of constructing and procuring space in response to a different organisational change: namely, to be able to occupy space on‐demand. The article describes the concept of a lean portfolio that helps organisations manage uncertainty better through infrastructure on‐demand; and proposes a research agenda for systematically examining different alternative workplace strategies (AWS).

Details

Journal of Corporate Real Estate, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-001X

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2002

JOSE S. PENALVA ZUASTI

This article examines the economic impact of a major California earthquake, by focusing on the catastrophic damage to residential real estate. It asserts that the damage…

Abstract

This article examines the economic impact of a major California earthquake, by focusing on the catastrophic damage to residential real estate. It asserts that the damage, although substantial, would be small relative to the U.S. GNP. The author also asserts that the risk can be optimally allocated through reasonably priced insurance contracts and well‐functioning insurance derivative markets.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 1 July 2001

Elaine Palmer and David Parker

Observes that performance measurement models are largely based on deterministic assumptions about the world. Suggests that it is time to re‐align performance measurement…

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1804

Abstract

Observes that performance measurement models are largely based on deterministic assumptions about the world. Suggests that it is time to re‐align performance measurement with post‐deterministic discoveries made in the physical sciences, especially quantum physics. In the physical sciences, scientists have (reluctantly) come to accept that the world has a fundamental uncertainty at its core. Asks the question of what lessons can be drawn for performance measurement from this knowledge of the physical world. Addresses this question first by describing the development and epistemological consequences of three post‐deterministic (physical world) discoveries of: uncertainty, bounded instability, and self‐organisation. Then traces the equivalent path to uncertainty in management. Concludes that it is time for the oldest management theories, which still underpin current performance systems, to be realigned with knowledge on uncertainty. Ends with a look at two current performance systems, activity‐based management, and the Balanced Scorecard. In line with knowledge about fundamental uncertainty, these (and other) performance systems should focus on identification of the “aggregate system” critical few.

Details

International Journal of Operations & Production Management, vol. 21 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3577

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