Search results

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how monetary fundamentals affect exchange rate movements.

To develop this paper, a Bayesian Network modeling is applied to explore the causal interactions between monetary fundamentals and exchange rate fluctuations. Subsequently, a sensitivity analysis is performed to asses and estimate exchange rate behavior with uncertain monetary fundamentals. Furthermore, a Granger Causality test is used as suggested in the Econometric literature to determine the causality direction among factors.

The empirical findings show that money supply and interest rate have a significant positive effect on exchange rate, whereas inflation rate has a considerable negative effect on exchange rate. In addition, the authors deduce that real income has an indirect impact on exchange rate and a direct impact on inflation rate, interest rate and money supply. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis shows that monetary uncertainty has a considerable effect on exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, the Granger Causality test reveals that there is a unique unidirectional causality running from money supply to exchange rate.

The model can be considered as a vital management tool for international investors and financial analysts to explore the effect of monetary fundamentals on exchange rate behavior. It allows estimating exchange rate fluctuations with uncertain monetary factors.

This study is the first one which applied a Bayesian Network modeling to examine the exchange rate determination problem. Results of this research are presented under a clear graphical representation that can be easily useful by monetary policymakers and international traders to determine the influential monetary factors on exchange rate behavior. Also, the model will help them in estimating the effect of monetary uncertainty on exchange rate fluctuations.

The purpose of this paper is to explain the antecedents of environmental uncertainty in management using a historical framework. The goal of developing passion and compassion in management practice and research cannot be achieved unless a better understanding is developed of the main challenge facing researchers and practitioners – uncertainty.

The antecedents of uncertainty in management are explored using a historical framework. This enables the generation of insights into the nature and use of uncertainty over the decades.

The importance of environmental uncertainty is escalating. The paper's historical, philosophical and critical view helps scholars explain and interpret uncertainty within their own research and formulate new research questions.

Understanding the epistemological assumptions underlying paradigms will better enable researchers and practitioners to face a future filled with uncertainty and equivocality.

This paper aims to discuss at a fundamental level the observation that the world can be seen as grey, or uncertain.

Attention is given first to arguments that suggest that the future should be seen as totally unknown, or black. Reasons are given for dismissing these arguments, and then consideration is given to fundamental causes of uncertainty which prevent the world being white or totally known.

The treatment is at a fundamental level that has little bearing on current practical means of dealing with uncertainty, but it is claimed that consideration of fundamentals is often unexpectedly rewarding and therefore worth pursuing.

There are probably few practical implications, at least in the short term.

The viewpoints appear to have received little previous notice.

The goal of this paper is to analyze the views of Frank Knight and Ludwig von Mises on the topic of uncertainty and how it influences the theory of individual decision-making and to trace out the implications of the same for the theories of entrepreneurship, equilibrium, and the firm. The paper adopts a historical approach in its analysis of the theory of uncertainty, with an extended discussion of the primary writings of Knight and Mises on this topic. It then uses the insights gleaned from this discussion in order to address issues and topics that have found a prominent place in the modern literature on entrepreneurship, equilibrium, and the firm that draws its inspiration from the Austrian School. The paper offers three main findings: in the realm of entrepreneurship it argues that there can be no theory of the entrepreneur without the concept of uncertainty provided by Knight and Mises, whereas with regard to the theory of equilibrium it focuses on highlighting the concept of an equilibrium with error prevalent in the Austrian tradition and on the implications that an explicit introduction of uncertainty has for the existence of a process of equilibration that pushes the economy toward a state of general equilibrium in real time. As regards the theory of the firm we find that a proper understanding of uncertainty ultimately reverses the direction of any causal explanation of economic organization, making the firm an outcome of dealing with uncertainty rather than a means to do so.

Ours is a complex world. On these five words will be built a foundation for an alternative way of framing our thinking about risk management. Complexity means many things, but a key feature is that outcomes cannot be predicted with certainty. In the best cases, opportunities arise to analyse and develop some understanding of the uncertainty within a complex system, and in the most fortunate of such circumstances it is possible to anticipate specific outcomes with some degree of accuracy. The authors call such circumstances risks – that is, measurable uncertainties. Complexity, however, consists mainly of interconnected uncertainties and unknown/unknowable possible outcomes or effects. And, of course, complex systems can include humans whose (in)ability to perceive and interpret such environments makes things – well – more complex.

This book ultimately will focus on how the authors construct a way to lead and manage in this environment, but first it is critical that the terminology and description of this world be given some precision. Therefore, Chapter One begins with an introduction to the idea of complexity, including some mention of the principles and concepts that inform our understanding of it. In turn, this discussion introduces uncertainty. Risk, as a category of uncertainty is discussed and the implications of its measurability are presented, which leads to a discussion of human perception and behaviour under conditions of uncertainty. Attention is then drawn to the unknown and the unknowable, and to emergent phenomena. Since the focus of this book is on public sector risk management, the chapter concludes with a brief discussion of the idea of public risk.

Uncertainty, a state of unknowing linked to threats and opportunities, is a key characteristic of megaprojects, making it challenging for government officials and politicians to decide on their initiation. For them, implementation by the private sector adds an extra layer of complexity and uncertainty to megaproject planning. In this context, only a few studies have focussed on governing and the mobilization of uncertainty arguments in communication between government actors and private developers either in favour of or against megaprojects. The purpose of this article is to shed light on how private megaproject proposals progress towards political acceptance or rejection in public decision-making.

This process of public decision-making on private megaproject proposals is examined in the case of the Helsinki–Tallinn undersea rail tunnel. In line with the interpretive research tradition, the authors’ study draws on a qualitative methodology underpinned by social constructionism. The research process can be characterized as abductive.

The authors’ findings suggest that while public decision-making on megaprojects is a conflictual and dynamic process, some types of uncertainty are relatively more important in affecting the perceived feasibility of the projects in the eyes of public sector decision-makers.

This study contributes to the debate on uncertainty management in megaprojects, proposing a new type of uncertainty – uncertainty about privateness – which has not been explicitly visible thus far.

A novel approach to modeling exchange rates is presented based on a set of models distinguished by the drivers of the rate and regime duration. The models are combined into a “meta model” using model averaging and non-nested hypothesis-testing techniques. The meta model accommodates periods of stability and slowly evolving or abruptly changing regimes involving multiple drivers. Estimated meta models for five exchange rates provide a compelling characterization of their determination over the last 40 years or so, identifying “phases” during which the influences from policy and financial market responses to news succumb to equilibrating macroeconomic pressures and vice versa.

While uncertainty has always been a feature of the healthcare environment, its pace and scope are rapidly increasing, fueled by myriad factors such as technological advancements, the threat and frequency of disruptive events, global economic developments, and increasing complexity. Contemporary healthcare organizations thus persistently face what is known as “deep uncertainty,” which obscures their ability to predict outcomes of strategic action and decision-making, presenting them with novel challenges and threatening their survival. Persistent, deep uncertainty challenges us to revisit and reconsider how we think about uncertainty and the strategic actions needed by organizations to thrive under these circumstances. Simply put, how can healthcare organizations thrive in the face of deeply uncertain environments? We argue that healthcare organizations need to employ both adaptive and creative strategic approaches in order to effectively meet patients' needs and capture value in the long-term future. The chapter concludes by offering two ways organizations can build the dynamic capabilities needed to employ such approaches.

The purpose of this paper is to address several challenges faced by organizational management in the contemporary context, and how managers can better reply to management challenges by integrating oriental and occidental philosophy and wisdom.

The paper first describes the characteristics of the contemporary management context and identifies challenges that managers are likely to encounter. The paper then investigates how oriental and occidental philosophy and wisdom reply to these management challenges, whilst also considering the relative advantages and disadvantages of both traditions. Based on the complementarity of these two traditions, the paper finally proposes a framework that integrates both oriental and occidental wisdom by HeXie Management Theory to better respond to management challenges.

The contemporary organizational environment is characterized by four key salient components: complexity, change, ambiguity, and uncertainty (CCAU). Managers are challenged by problems of determining causality, managing holistically, and adaptation to rapid change. Western philosophical approaches to confronting management challenges arising from CCAU, inherent in the wider economic environment, emphasize standardization and rational design on the basis of science, law, and religion. Conversely, Oriental philosophical approaches to management challenges oppose such rigid systems in favour of flexibility and adaptability which emphasize harmony and morality. Essentially, whereas western thought intends to limit the occurrence of unpredicted events through the development of scientific systems, oriental thinking aims to provide a flexible and fluid system which absorbs the effects of CCAU, thus limiting and using its impact. These two perspectives both have their own advantages and disadvantages when facing management challenges in the context of CCAU. By integrating these two complementary approaches, the authors propose HeXie Management Theory (HXMT). HXMT establishes a clear vision and mission to direct the development of organizations; to organize an integrated management system through the HeXie Theme and HeXie Coupling, and to apply the component “He Principle” and “Xie Principle” as basic mechanisms to cope with management challenges.

This study contributes to research on relationships between organizations and environment by providing a holistic analysis, and adds knowledge about how to reply to management challenges by constructing ambidextrous organizations based on HeXie Management Theory.

Over the past few decades, the environment for organisations has been frequently described using the acronym VUCA: a volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous environment. In spite of the popularity of this acronym, it is not unusual to find some overlap concerning the meaning of those terms, as well as poor definitions of each in the literature. Consequently, the main purpose of this paper was to conduct a systematic literature review to obtain a conceptual map of the components of VUCA and their relationships and to highlight some avenues for future research.

The authors conducted a systematic review of various databases between 1999 and 2021. A total of 833 papers were identified and 26 of them met the inclusion criteria for the current study.

The subsequent analysis revealed several overlaps and relationships between the four terms. Based on this analysis, the authors propose a conceptual map that could serve as a basis for future research and practice.

Because of the exploratory nature of the study and the scarce number of empirical studies, the impact that the use of the VUCA framework has had on businesses could not be addressed.

By clarifying the different components of VUCA and specifying the relationships between them with a comprehensive conceptual map, this paper may contribute to more rigorous empirical research, as well as help managers and executives more effectively deal with turbulent environments.