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1 – 10 of over 5000Michael R. Melton, Xuan (Susan) Nguyen and Michael Simeone
The purpose of this paper is to introduce instruction of technical analysis on the undergraduate level that can coincide with traditional teachings of fundamental analysis.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to introduce instruction of technical analysis on the undergraduate level that can coincide with traditional teachings of fundamental analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
Through examples using the latest in security analysis technology, this paper illustrates the importance of technical security analysis.
Findings
This research illustrates how technical analysis techniques may be used to make more significant investment decisions.
Originality value
Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist define technical analysis as a security analysis discipline for forecasting future direction of prices through the study of past market data primarily price and volume This form of analysis has stood in direct contrast to the fundamental analysis approach whereby actual facts of the company its industry and sector may be ignored. Understanding this contrast, much of academia has chosen to continue to focus its finance curricula on fundamental analysis techniques. As more universities implement trading rooms to reflect that of industry, they must recognize that any large brokerage trading group or financial institution will typically have both a technical analysis and fundamental analysis team. Thus, the need to incorporate technical analysis into undergraduate finance curricula.
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Ruchi Kejriwal, Monika Garg and Gaurav Sarin
Stock market has always been lucrative for various investors. But, because of its speculative nature, it is difficult to predict the price movement. Investors have been using both…
Abstract
Purpose
Stock market has always been lucrative for various investors. But, because of its speculative nature, it is difficult to predict the price movement. Investors have been using both fundamental and technical analysis to predict the prices. Fundamental analysis helps to study structured data of the company. Technical analysis helps to study price trends, and with the increasing and easy availability of unstructured data have made it important to study the market sentiment. Market sentiment has a major impact on the prices in short run. Hence, the purpose is to understand the market sentiment timely and effectively.
Design/methodology/approach
The research includes text mining and then creating various models for classification. The accuracy of these models is checked using confusion matrix.
Findings
Out of the six machine learning techniques used to create the classification model, kernel support vector machine gave the highest accuracy of 68%. This model can be now used to analyse the tweets, news and various other unstructured data to predict the price movement.
Originality/value
This study will help investors classify a news or a tweet into “positive”, “negative” or “neutral” quickly and determine the stock price trends.
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Alberto Antonio Agudelo Aguirre, Néstor Darío Duque Méndez and Ricardo Alfredo Rojas Medina
This study aims to determine whether, by means of the application of genetic algorithms (GA) through the traditional technical analysis (TA) using moving average…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to determine whether, by means of the application of genetic algorithms (GA) through the traditional technical analysis (TA) using moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), is possible to achieve higher yields than those that would be obtained using technical analysis investment strategies following a traditional approach (TA) and the buy and hold (B&H) strategy.
Design/methodology/approach
The study was carried out based on the daily price records of the NASDAQ financial asset during 2013–2017. TA approach was carried out under graphical analysis applying the standard MACD. GA approach took place by chromosome encoding, fitness evaluation and genetic operators. Traditional genetic operators (i.e. crossover and mutation) were adopted as based on the chromosome customization and fitness evaluation. The chromosome encoding stage used MACD to represent the genes of each chromosome to encode the parameters of MACD in a chromosome. For each chromosome, buy and sell indexes of the strategy were considered. Fitness evaluation served to defining the evaluation strategy of the chromosomes in the population according to the fitness function using the returns gained in each chromosome.
Findings
The paper provides empirical-theoretical insights about the effectiveness of GA to overcome the investment strategies based on MACD and B&H by achieving 5 and 11% higher returns per year, respectively. GA-based approach was additionally capable of improving the return-to-risk ratio of the investment.
Research limitations/implications
Limitations deal with the fact that the study was carried out on US markets conditions and data which hamper its application in some extend to markets with not as much development.
Practical implications
The findings suggest that not only skilled but also amateur investors may opt for investment strategies based on GA aiming at refining profitable financial signals to their advantage.
Originality/value
This paper looks at machine learning as an up-to-date tool with great potential for increasing effectiveness in profits when applied into TA investment approaches using MACD in well-developed stock markets.
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Armin Mahmoodi, Leila Hashemi, Milad Jasemi, Jeremy Laliberté, Richard C. Millar and Hamed Noshadi
In this research, the main purpose is to use a suitable structure to predict the trading signals of the stock market with high accuracy. For this purpose, two models for the…
Abstract
Purpose
In this research, the main purpose is to use a suitable structure to predict the trading signals of the stock market with high accuracy. For this purpose, two models for the analysis of technical adaptation were used in this study.
Design/methodology/approach
It can be seen that support vector machine (SVM) is used with particle swarm optimization (PSO) where PSO is used as a fast and accurate classification to search the problem-solving space and finally the results are compared with the neural network performance.
Findings
Based on the result, the authors can say that both new models are trustworthy in 6 days, however, SVM-PSO is better than basic research. The hit rate of SVM-PSO is 77.5%, but the hit rate of neural networks (basic research) is 74.2.
Originality/value
In this research, two approaches (raw-based and signal-based) have been developed to generate input data for the model: raw-based and signal-based. For comparison, the hit rate is considered the percentage of correct predictions for 16 days.
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Daniel Werner Lima Souza de Almeida, Tabajara Pimenta Júnior, Luiz Eduardo Gaio and Fabiano Guasti Lima
This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to evaluate the presence of abnormal returns due to stock splits or reverse stock splits in the Brazilian capital market context.
Design/methodology/approach
The event study technique was used on data from 518 events that occurred in a 30-year period (1987–2016), comprising 167 stock splits and 351 reverse stock splits.
Findings
The results revealed the occurrence of abnormal returns around the time the shares began trading stock splits or reverse stock splits at a statistical significance level of 5%. The main conclusion is that stock split and reverse stock split operations represent opportunities for extraordinary gains and may serve as a reference for investment strategies in the Brazilian stock market.
Originality/value
This study innovates by including reverse stock splits, as the existing literature focuses on stock splits, and by testing two distinct “zero” dates that of the ordinary general meeting that approved the share alteration and the “ex” date of the alteration, when the shares were effectively traded, reverse split or split.
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Pick-Soon Ling, Ruzita Abdul-Rahim and Fathin Faizah Said
This study aims to investigate Malaysian stock market efficiency from the view of Sharīʿah-compliant and conventional stocks based on the effectiveness of technical trading…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate Malaysian stock market efficiency from the view of Sharīʿah-compliant and conventional stocks based on the effectiveness of technical trading strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses unconventional trading strategies that mix buy recommendations of Bursa Malaysia analysts with sell signals generated from 10 selected technical trading strategies (simple moving average, moving average envelopes, Bollinger Bands, momentum, commodity channel index, relative strength index, stochastic, Williams percentage range, moving average convergence divergence oscillator and shooting star) that are detected using ChartNexus. The period from 1 January 2013 until 31 December 2015 produces a total sample consisting of 1,265 buy recommendations of 125 Sharīʿah-compliant stocks and 400 buy recommendations of conventional stocks. The study period is extended until 31 March 2016 to provide an ample time for detecting the sell signal especially for buy recommendations that are released towards the end of 2015.
Findings
The resulting Jensen’s alpha show 8 out of 10 strategies are effective in generating abnormal returns in Sharīʿah-compliant samples while only 3 out of 10 strategies are effective in conventional samples. Prominent effectiveness of technical trading strategies in Sharīʿah-compliant stocks implies clear inefficiency in that stock market segment as opposed to those of the conventional stocks.
Originality/value
The results based on unconventional trading strategies provide new insights of Malaysian stock market efficiency especially in Sharīʿah-compliant and conventional stocks. The paper provides more robust findings on market efficiency as firms’ equity level data were focussed together with analysts’ buy recommendations from Bursa Malaysia.
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Azniza Hartini Azrai Azaimi Ambrose and Fadhilah Abdullah Asuhaimi
The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively discuss the issue of risk vis-à-vis the perpetuity restriction principle inherent in waqf (Islamic endowment). Specifically, it…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to comprehensively discuss the issue of risk vis-à-vis the perpetuity restriction principle inherent in waqf (Islamic endowment). Specifically, it attempts to consolidate the axioms in both conventional and Islamic finance, such as the risk-return trade-off and al-ghunm bi al-ghurm (liability accompanies gain), with the perpetual nature of waqf. Overall, this paper attempts to find a resolution to the dilemma of perpetuity restriction inherent in cash waqf against the natural occurrence of the risk.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is based on the secondary research methodology; past literature encompassing journal articles, books, relevant financial axioms, fatwas (Islamic rulings) and state enactments is critically reviewed to present its case. In regard to state enactments, only Malaysian state enactments have been used, thus restricting the study to the Malaysian case only.
Findings
This study contends that the dilemma of the perpetuity restriction and the natural occurrence of risk can be resolved through the integration of waqf risk management, especially concerning cash waqf, with the Islamic spiritual approach. By implementing standard operating procedures that inculcate awareness on waqf risk management and Islamic spirituality in waqf stakeholders (wāqif (donor), trustee and beneficiaries), the stakeholders may accept the reality of risk that is inevitable even after all efforts have been exhausted. In other words, the violation of perpetuity is exonerated given that mental faculties aligned with revealed texts have been exhaustively used beforehand.
Practical implications
Findings from this study may broaden the choice of investment avenues for waqf trustees while adhering to the perpetual restriction of waqf. More importantly, waqf trustees will not be forced to invest in interest-bearing securities or be involved in any usurious transactions just to obtain guaranteed returns and preserve the corpus of waqf.
Originality/value
This study offers a unique perspective on cash waqf risk management by re-analyzing the axioms and concepts of finance and waqf while observing the welfare of the beneficiaries.
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This study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores whether a new machine learning method can more accurately predict the movement of stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
This study presents a novel hybrid deep learning model, Residual-CNN-Seq2Seq (RCSNet), to predict the trend of stock price movement. RCSNet integrates the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, convolutional neural network (CNN) and the sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) long–short-term memory (LSTM) model.
Findings
The hybrid model is able to forecast both linear and non-linear time-series component of stock dataset. CNN and Seq2Seq LSTMs can be effectively combined for dynamic modeling of short- and long-term-dependent patterns in non-linear time series forecast. Experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms baseline models on S&P 500 index stock dataset from January 2000 to August 2016.
Originality/value
This study develops the RCSNet hybrid model to tackle the challenge by combining both linear and non-linear models. New evidence has been obtained in predicting the movement of stock market prices.
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Abdelhadi Ifleh and Mounime El Kabbouri
The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in…
Abstract
Purpose
The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in attractive SMs. This article aims to apply a correlation feature selection model to identify important technical indicators (TIs), which are combined with multiple deep learning (DL) algorithms for forecasting SM indices.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology involves using a correlation feature selection model to select the most relevant features. These features are then used to predict the fluctuations of six markets using various DL algorithms, and the results are compared with predictions made using all features by using a range of performance measures.
Findings
The experimental results show that the combination of TIs selected through correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides good results in the MADEX market. The combination of selected indicators and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in the NASDAQ 100 market outperforms all other combinations of variables and models. In other markets, the combination of all variables with ANN provides the best results.
Originality/value
This article makes several significant contributions, including the use of a correlation feature selection model to select pertinent variables, comparison between multiple DL algorithms (ANN, CNN and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)), combining selected variables with algorithms to improve predictions, evaluation of the suggested model on six datasets (MASI, MADEX, FTSE 100, SP500, NASDAQ 100 and EGX 30) and application of various performance measures (Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) and Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE)).
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This paper aims at developing a behavioral agent-based model for interacting financial markets. Additionally, the effect of imposing Tobin taxes on market dynamics is explored.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims at developing a behavioral agent-based model for interacting financial markets. Additionally, the effect of imposing Tobin taxes on market dynamics is explored.
Design/methodology/approach
The agent-based approach is followed to capture the highly complex, dynamic nature of financial markets. The model represents the interaction between two different financial markets located in two countries. The artificial markets are populated with heterogeneous, boundedly rational agents. There are two types of agents populating the markets; market makers and traders. Each time step, traders decide on which market to participate in and which trading strategy to follow. Traders can follow technical trading strategy, fundamental trading strategy or abstain from trading. The time-varying weight of each trading strategy depends on the current and past performance of this strategy. However, technical traders are loss-averse, where losses are perceived twice the equivalent gains. Market makers settle asset prices according to the net submitted orders.
Findings
The proposed framework can replicate important stylized facts observed empirically such as bubbles and crashes, excess volatility, clustered volatility, power-law tails, persistent autocorrelation in absolute returns and fractal structure.
Practical implications
Artificial models linking micro to macro behavior facilitate exploring the effect of different fiscal and monetary policies. The results of imposing Tobin taxes indicate that a small levy may raise government revenues without causing market distortion or instability.
Originality/value
This paper proposes a novel approach to explore the effect of loss aversion on the decision-making process in interacting financial markets framework.
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