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I review the burgeoning literature on applications of Markov regime switching models in empirical finance. In particular, distinct attention is devoted to the ability of Markov Switching models to fit the data, filter unknown regimes and states on the basis of the data, to allow a powerful tool to test hypotheses formulated in light of financial theories, and to their forecasting performance with reference to both point and density predictions. The review covers papers concerning a multiplicity of sub-fields in financial economics, ranging from empirical analyses of stock returns, the term structure of default-free interest rates, the dynamics of exchange rates, as well as the joint process of stock and bond returns.

This paper examines Aman Ullah’s contributions to robust inference, finite sample econometrics, nonparametrics and semiparametrics, and panel and spatial models. His early works on robust inference and finite sample theory were mostly motivated by his thesis advisor, Professor Anirudh Lal Nagar. They eventually led to his most original rethinking of many statistics and econometrics models that developed into the monograph Finite Sample Econometrics published in 2004. His desire to relax distributional and functional-form assumptions lead him in the direction of nonparametric estimation and he summarized his views in his most influential textbook Nonparametric Econometrics (with Adrian Pagan) published in 1999 that has influenced a whole generation of econometricians. His innovative contributions in the areas of seemingly unrelated regressions, parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric panel data models, and spatial models have also inspired a larger literature on nonparametric and semiparametric estimation and inference and spurred on research in robust estimation and inference in these and related areas.

In this article we propose a multivariate dynamic probit model. Our model can be viewed as a nonlinear VAR model for the latent variables associated with correlated binary time-series data. To estimate it, we implement an exact maximum likelihood approach, hence providing a solution to the problem generally encountered in the formulation of multivariate probit models. Our framework allows us to study the predictive relationships among the binary processes under analysis. Finally, an empirical study of three financial crises is conducted.

Behavioral economics poses a challenge for the welfare evaluation of choices, particularly those that involve risk. It demands that we recognize that the descriptive account of behavior toward those choices might not be the ones we were all taught, and still teach, and that subjective risk perceptions might not accord with expert assessments of probabilities. In addition to these challenges, we are faced with the need to jettison naive notions of revealed preferences, according to which every choice by a subject expresses her objective function, as behavioral evidence forces us to confront pervasive inconsistencies and noise in a typical individual’s choice data. A principled account of errant choice must be built into models used for identification and estimation. These challenges demand close attention to the methodological claims often used to justify policy interventions. They also require, we argue, closer attention by economists to relevant contributions from cognitive science. We propose that a quantitative application of the “intentional stance” of Dennett provides a coherent, attractive and general approach to behavioral welfare economics.

There is a growing literature in nonparametric econometrics in the recent two decades. Given the space limitation, it is impossible to survey all the important recent developments in nonparametric econometrics. Therefore, we choose to limit our focus on the following areas. In Section 2, we review the recent developments of nonparametric estimation and testing of regression functions with mixed discrete and continuous covariates. We discuss nonparametric estimation and testing of econometric models for nonstationary data in Section 3. Section 4 is devoted to surveying the literature of nonparametric instrumental variable (IV) models. We review nonparametric estimation of quantile regression models in Section 5. In Sections 2–5, we also point out some open research problems, which might be useful for graduate students to review the important research papers in this field and to search for their own research interests, particularly dissertation topics for doctoral students. Finally, in Section 6 we highlight some important research areas that are not covered in this paper due to space limitation. We plan to write a separate survey paper to discuss some of the omitted topics.

Cognition and psychology have become central issues in economics. While this interest represents a radical change in economic theory, it does have a useful history that we believe is only partially recognized by contemporary economists. Although it is customary to cite Herbert Simon's important work in this regard,¹ we suggest Hayek's earlier work The Sensory Order (1952) should enjoy similar billing.