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During the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, most developed and emerging economies and financial markets have recorded important financial losses. Those economies have experienced momentous corrections, and their assets were significantly devaluated, implying many losses and bankruptcies for banks, investors, and firms. Overall, despite continuing efforts made by governments and central banks to support their financial systems, most financial markets (stock markets, derivative markets, monetary markets, and currency markets) have been strongly affected by this crisis. Furthermore, the rapid transmission of the US subprime crisis to several European and Asian developed and emerging countries and the transformation into a global financial and economic crisis have revealed a high level of financial integration and linkage with the US market. The financial shocks have also induced negative feedbacks to macroeconomic indicators, suggesting significant relationships between financial markets and macroeconomies.
Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the linear and nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between the real price of oil and the US real effective…
Purpose – The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the linear and nonlinear short- and long-run relationships between the real price of oil and the US real effective exchange rate.
Methodology/approach – We use recent linear and nonlinear econometric techniques over the period 1973–2009.
Findings – Our main findings are that (i) there is significant evidence that both variables contain a unit root; (ii) the oil price and the US exchange rate are strongly linked in the short run; and finally (iii) there are some signs of nonlinearity in the oil–exchange rate relationship.
Originality – Using recent econometric techniques, we show that exchange rates are not a fundamental determinant of oil prices but exchange rate changes help to better forecast oil prices in the short run.
While price studies such as Jawadi et al. generally focus on the relationships between oil and stock markets through the study of oil price on stock markets, this paper…
While price studies such as Jawadi et al. generally focus on the relationships between oil and stock markets through the study of oil price on stock markets, this paper takes a different perspective to the linkages between oil and stock markets. This study sets out to investigate the efficiency hypothesis for oil markets while testing for whether oil price dynamics depend on stock market fluctuations or not.
Using nonlinear econometric modeling, this paper investigates the oil market adjustment dynamics for four developed and emerging countries: France, the USA, Mexico and the Philippines. Our findings show strong evidence of significant linkages between oil and stock markets for all the countries under consideration.
As in Jawadi et al. who focus on stock price dynamics regarding oil price, the findings of this present paper, which focuses more on the oil industry, also point to an asymmetrical mean‐reversion between oil and stock markets that occurs in a nonlinear manner. They reject the informational efficiency hypothesis for oil markets. Indeed, while the previous literature often highlights the stock markets' dependence on the oil industry, this study contributes to the literature by concluding in favor of significant feedback from stock to oil markets, which is not compatible with the efficiency principle according to Fama.
This paper develops a new nonlinear framework that should improve the investigation of oil‐stock market linkages. Future research could check the forecasting properties of this model to forecast the future dynamics of oil prices.
This paper adds to the literature by suggesting that it is not only oil shocks that affect stock markets, but that the latter also have a strong nonlinear impact on oil markets, reducing the diversification benefits of oil‐stock portfolios.
Since the recent global financial crisis began in 2008–2009, there has been strong decline in financial markets and investment, huge losses and bankruptcies that have led to a major financial downturn, and a significant economic recession for most developed and emerging economies. Some economists and financial analysts now consider this crisis to be more harmful in some ways than the Great Depression of 1929. Those economists and analysts point to a number of technical issues and limitations associated with the present financial systems, monetary institution rules, accounting and rating formulas, and investment strategies and choices. To try to overcome the financial downturn and, at the same time, to protect the banking systems and financial markets and to reassure investors, central banks have attempted various solutions, governments have introduced new plans (e.g., the Paulson plan), policymakers have included these topic in their political programs, and several conferences and political summits have been organized to discuss the issues. There have been two prevailing lines of thought. According to one line of thought, the extreme risk associated with speculation in sophisticated financial products, the nature of the credit-banking economic system, the gap between real and financial economies, and the strategic errors of monetary institutions constitute the main sources of the financial crisis.1 On the other hand, it is now argued that this trend needs to be altered. According to that view, monetary institutions, banking and trading systems, rating agencies, and asset pricing modeling need to be reassessed (Barnett, 2012).