Search results1 – 10 of 36
Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT…
Extreme value theory (EVT) holds promise for advancing the assessment and management of extreme financial risks. Recent literature suggests that the application of EVT generally results in more precise estimates of extreme quantiles and tail probabilities of financial asset returns. This article assesses EVT from the perspective of financial risk management. The authors believe that the recent optimism regarding EVT may be appropriate but exaggerated, and that much of its potential remains latent. They support their claim by describing various pitfalls associated with the current use of EVT techniques, and illustrate how these can be avoided. In conclusion, the article defines several specific research directions that may further the practical and effective application of EVT to risk management.
Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions…
Fat‐tailed distributions have been found in many financial and economic variables ranging from forecasting returns on financial assets to modeling recovery distributions in bankruptcies. They have also been found in numerous insurance applications such as catastrophic insurance claims and in value‐at‐risk measures employed by risk managers. Financial applications include:
A large literature over several decades reveals both extensive concern with the question of time-varying betas and an emerging consensus that betas are in fact…
A large literature over several decades reveals both extensive concern with the question of time-varying betas and an emerging consensus that betas are in fact time-varying, leading to the prominence of the conditional CAPM. Set against that background, we assess the dynamics in realized betas, vis-à-vis the dynamics in the underlying realized market variance and individual equity covariances with the market. Working in the recently popularized framework of realized volatility, we are led to a framework of nonlinear fractional cointegration: although realized variances and covariances are very highly persistent and well approximated as fractionally integrated, realized betas, which are simple nonlinear functions of those realized variances and covariances, are less persistent and arguably best modeled as stationary I(0) processes. We conclude by drawing implications for asset pricing and portfolio management.
Tremendous measure of data lakes with the exponential mounting rate is produced by the present healthcare sector. The information from differing sources like electronic…
Tremendous measure of data lakes with the exponential mounting rate is produced by the present healthcare sector. The information from differing sources like electronic wellbeing record, clinical information, streaming information from sensors, biomedical image data, biomedical signal information, lab data, and so on brand it substantial as well as mind-boggling as far as changing information positions, which have stressed the abilities of prevailing regular database frameworks in terms of scalability, storage of unstructured data, concurrency, and cost. Big data solutions step in the picture by harnessing these colossal, assorted, and multipart data indexes to accomplish progressively important and learned patterns. The reconciliation of multimodal information seeking after removing the relationship among the unstructured information types is a hotly debated issue these days. Big data energizes in triumphing the bits of knowledge from these immense expanses of information. Big data is a term which is required to take care of the issues of volume, velocity, and variety generally seated in the medicinal services data. This work plans to exhibit a survey of the writing of big data arrangements in the medicinal services part, the potential changes, challenges, and accessible stages and philosophies to execute enormous information investigation in the healthcare sector. The work categories the big healthcare data (BHD) applications in five broad categories, followed by a prolific review of each sphere, and also offers some practical available real-life applications of BHD solutions.
The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three…
The purpose of this paper is to examine weekly dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) and vector autoregressive (VAR)-based volatility spillover effects within the three Greater China (GC) public property markets, as well as across the GC property markets, three Asian emerging markets and two developed markets of the USA and Japan over the period from January 1999 through December 2013.
First, the author employ the DCC methodology proposed by Engle (2002) to examine the time-varying nature in return co-movements among the public property markets. Second, the author appeal to the generalized VAR methodology, variance decomposition and the generalized spillover index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to investigate the volatility spillover effects across the real estate markets. Finally, the spillover framework is able to combine with recent developments in time series econometrics to provide a comprehensive analysis of the dynamic volatility co-movements regionally and globally. The author also examine whether there are volatility spillover regimes, as well as explore the relationship between the volatility spillover cycles and the correlation spillover cycles.
Results indicate moderate return co-movements and volatility spillover effects within and across the GC region. Cross-market volatility spillovers are bidirectional with the highest spillovers occur during the global financial crisis (GFC) period. Comparatively, the Chinese public property market's volatility is more exogenous and less influenced by other markets. The volatility spillover effects are subject to regime switching with two structural breaks detected for the five sub-groups of markets examined. There is evidence of significant dependence between the volatility spillover cycles across stock and public real estate, due to the presence of unobserved common shocks.
Because international investors incorporate into their portfolio allocation not only the long-term price relationship but also the short-term market volatility interaction and return correlation structure, the results of this study can shed more light on the extent to which investors can benefit from regional and international diversification in the long run and short-term within and across the GC securitized property sector, with Asian emerging market and global developed markets of Japan and USA. Although it is beyond the scope of this paper, it would be interesting to examine how the two co-movement measures (volatility spillovers and correlation spillovers) can be combined in optimal covariance forecasting in global investing that includes stock and public real estate markets.
This is one of very few papers that comprehensively analyze the dynamic return correlations and conditional volatility spillover effects among the three GC public property markets, as well as with their selected emerging and developed partners over the last decade and during the GFC period, which is the main contribution of the study. The specific contribution is to characterize and measure cross-public real estate market volatility transmission in asset pricing through estimates of several conditional “volatility spillover” indices. In this case, a volatility spillover index is defined as share of total return variability in one public real estate market attributable to volatility surprises in another public real estate market.
Reviews previous research based on event study methodology, pointing out that events can influence returns in many ways, and applies the method to a sample of mergers and…
Reviews previous research based on event study methodology, pointing out that events can influence returns in many ways, and applies the method to a sample of mergers and acquisitions in the thinly traded Norwegian market 1983‐1994. Explains how the classic market model can be adjusted to control for non‐synchronous trading and changing/asymmetric volatility; and how the event and non‐event periods can be combined into a single model. Applies two different models to the data, compares the results and finds the ARMA‐GARCH approach superior to the OLS. Discusses the implications of this for researchers.
This paper aims to investigate the interdependence of daily conditional volatility in seven FTSE‐NAREIT‐EPRA European developed real estate securities markets – the United…
This paper aims to investigate the interdependence of daily conditional volatility in seven FTSE‐NAREIT‐EPRA European developed real estate securities markets – the United Kingdom, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Italy, Sweden and Switzerland, from January 1990 to December 2011.
This paper employs the multivariate GARCH and the generalized VAR volatility spillover index methodologies.
The author finds that each of the seven European developed real estate securities markets is relatively endogenous and interacts well with the other markets. In particular, the French real estate securities market has the most dominant volatility impact on other markets over the full sample period. The introduction and implementation of the euro is associated with a moderate increase of the total volatility spillovers around the three‐year (January 1999‐January 2002) period among the sample markets. Moreover, these markets have experienced an increase in their volatility correlation, as well as becoming more open around the GFC period. Around this crisis period, the German real estate securities market emerges as the “volatility leader” in transmitting the conditional volatilities to other markets in the European region.
This is the first paper to examine whether each of the sample European real estate securities markets has influenced or has been more influenced by others from the conditional volatility spillover perspective in the context of economic globalization, monetary integration and financial crisis. Since international investors incorporate into their portfolio selections not only the return correlation structure but also the market volatility interaction, the results of this study can shed light on the extent to which investors can benefit from international real estate securities diversification in the European developed countries.
This study uses parametric hazard models to investigate duration dependence in US stock market cycles over the January 1929 through December 1992 period. Market cycles are…
This study uses parametric hazard models to investigate duration dependence in US stock market cycles over the January 1929 through December 1992 period. Market cycles are determined using the Beveridge‐Nelson (1981) approach to the decomposition of economic time series. The results show that both real and nominal cycles exhibit positive duration dependence. The implication of this finding is that actual prices revert to their permanent or trend level in a non‐random manner as the cyclical component dissipates over time. This process is consistent with mean reversion in price and suggests that predictable periodicity in market cycles may exist. Only limited evidence is obtained that discrete shifts or trends in mean cycle duration exist. The length of market cycles appears not to have changed over the 1929–92 period.