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The national objectives of forward exchange controls are to restrain speculation in foreign exchange, to limit international capital flows and to affect the forward exchange rates. Restrictions on forward transactions are economic welfare costs for enterprises and banks, which are analysed in terms of risk‐return and supply‐demand theory. Empirical answers to whether forward exchange control is really necessary await collection and disclosure of company currency exposure, which itself may contribute to the national objectives implicit in forward exchange controls.

This paper examines the effectiveness of the three macro-prudential measures introduced by the Korean government in 2010 and 2011: (i) introduction of limit for FX forward positions of domestic banks and foreign bank branches, (ii) reintroduction of tax on foreign investors' earnings from Korean government bonds, and (iii) imposition of macro-prudential stability levy on non-deposit foreign currency liabilities appeared in bank balance sheets. The results show that the three measures were not successful: The limits of FX forward position did not lead to the decrease in foreign borrowings. The reintroduction of the tax did not reduce foreign investments in Korean government bonds. Lastly, the levy on non-deposit foreign currency liabilities did not lower the foreign borrowings from the banks and did not result in more financing through deposits for banks. The ineffectiveness of the capital flow management system in controling the amount of foreign capital flows implies that the system might not be effective in mitigating the pressure on exchange rate caused by excessive volatility of foreign capital flows.

It is widely recognized that expectations of future events have significant impact on exchange rates movements. The role of expectations in exchange rate movements can be considered as a source of exchange rate estimation error. In a sense it is a pity that the majority of empirical evidence on the exchange rate fluctuation clearly negates the validity of such models that are more sophisticated and comprehensive.

This paper examines the opportunity cost of applying simple averages in formulating the Department of Defense (DoD) budget for foreign exchange rates. Using out-of-sample validation, we evaluate the status quo of a center-weighted average against a Random Walk model, ARIMA, forward rates, futures contracts, and a private firm's forecasts over two time periods extending from Fiscal Year (FY) 1991 to FY 2014. The results strongly indicate that four of the alternative methods outperform the status quo over the shorter time period, and three methods for both time periods. Furthermore, a non-parametric comparison of the median error demonstrates statistical similarities between the four alternative methods over the short term. Overall, the paper recommends using the futures option prices to decrease forecast error by 3.23% and avoiding a $34 million opportunity cost.

This study seeks to explore the presence and the relative strength of market efficiency in the onshore and offshore Renminbi (RMB) forward markets.

In the onshore and offshore foreign exchange markets, the RMB forward contracts are designed in similar ways. However, the underlying economic forces and regulatory frameworks are very different in these two markets. We first analyze the functioning of each market, by examining the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) conditions. Second, we explore the CIRP deviations in the two markets and quantify the role of market frictions and government interventions.

We find that the CIRP condition does not hold in either the onshore or the offshore RMB forward markets. We also find that the offshore market is more efficient than the onshore market in conveying private information about investors’ expectation.

Our results reveal that the onshore RMB forward market provides an imperfect platform for investors to manage their currency exposures. We suggest that by opening the offshore market to domestic participants and the onshore market to more foreigners, the forward rates may become more informative with a greater investor mix. These liberalization efforts are important steps in the right directions to improve market efficiency in the Chinese FOREX market.

This study investigates foreign exchange risk management in major Finnish firms. The shift to a floating foreign‐exchange regime has increased risk aversion and intensified risk management in a number of firms. The managers feel they can forecast foreign exchange development, and that they have been successful in risk management. Managers pay attention to economic exposure, and instead of being closed out, the foreign exchange exposures are managed actively. The transaction risk of both agreed‐upon flows and budgeted items are hedged. Accounting exposures are also managed extensively.

The issue of exposure management, a significant subset of international financial management, is closely intertwined with the notions of foreign exchange risk and exchange market efficiency. Since value is a function of risk, that makes an understanding of these notions germane to those who seek value in global markets. This study finds earlier attempts specifying exchange market efficiency inadequate and those dealing with foreign exchange risk deficient in generating prescriptions for exposure management. The paper focuses on the notion of the market hierarchy (goods, financial and foreign exchange) and the inter‐relationships among the markets. It helps the reader understand the theoretical constructs underlying prevailing schemes for foreign exchange exposure management. Most importantly, it identifies situations under which exposure management is relevant and potentially rewarding. It also points out circumstances when existing dictates for management will yield benefits only by accident. The paper offers some specific alternative suggestions to guide managers in making informed and logical decisions.

This paper studies the components of the forward discount dynamics in Germany from 1972 to 1996. By using two different frequencies in the analysis, we find that an ARCH structure fits the monthly data well, while an EGARCH structure gives a better description of daily forward discount volatility. Results also suggest that foreign central bank reserves and portfolio investment are significant in the determination of the forward discount trend over the whole period. The causality, however, varies over time. Sign size, and persistence effects on the volatility of the forward discount are all significant, and thus, provide important information to both policy makers and operators in the market. There is also evidence that the volatility of the forward discount dropped after the Plaza Accord.

The purpose of this paper is to study how the foreign currency account (FCA) is affected by the domestic fixed deposit (FD) rate, the FCA rate, the expected exchange rate and exchange rate risk.

This paper analyses the causal relationship between the domestic FD rate, the FCA rate, the expected exchange rate on a set of foreign currency deposits and exchange rate volatility, based on the theory of portfolio choice. Based on the theory, the panel vector autoregressive regression of fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares are modelled.

There is no cointegrating relationship for the three-month FCA deposits, the domestic FD rate, the FCA rate and the expected exchange rate. Only the six-month FCA business deposits are affected by the domestic FD rate, the FCA rate and the expected exchange rate. The FCA depositors are not affected by exchange rate volatility.

This study is conducted based on the FCA rate quoted by the leading commercial banks in Malaysia, Maybank. Thus, the FCA rate is used as a proxy for the FCA rate of commercial banks in Malaysia.

Individual depositors have to save in more than the three-month FCA to realise their expected return. For individuals, the FCA deposit is not an alternative choice to domestic FD. Exporters may use the FCA deposit to finance their foreign purchases to save the cost of foreign exchange conversion but it is still not an appropriate hedging tool against foreign exchange fluctuations as compared to the existing forward foreign exchange facility.