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1 – 10 of 383
Open Access
Article
Publication date: 31 July 2023

Sophie Ambrosat and Christian Grünwald

Although trends such as digitisation, demographic change and flexibilisation of work have been recognised by many human resource (HR) practitioners, this viewpoint paper argues…

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Abstract

Purpose

Although trends such as digitisation, demographic change and flexibilisation of work have been recognised by many human resource (HR) practitioners, this viewpoint paper argues that future-orientation in the HR sector could benefit from making use of the foresight perspective. Foresight is understood as the systematic, method-guided analysis and discussion of possible future developments. The goal is to build future-robust structures in organisations at an early stage and to identify emerging skill needs. This paper aims to make HR professionals aware of the potential of foresight for their strategic activities.

Design/methodology/approach

Introducing the approach of strategic foresight to the field of HR, this study derives the argumentation from a discussion of literature and practitioners’ experiences.

Findings

So far, foresight in companies has mainly been conducted by strategy and innovation units, with HR and organisational development playing a subordinate role. However, foresight can contribute to gaining a competitive advantage and proactively shape future success factors in the organisation.

Practical implications

The authors advise practitioners to begin implementing strategic foresight within HR departments and organisational development to build future-proof organisations.

Originality/value

This paper introduces strategic foresight to the field of HR and points to a lack of integration between potentially existing foresight activities and people and culture considerations for the future.

Details

Strategic HR Review, vol. 22 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-4398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 December 2022

Ahmed Abdullah Danook and Omar-F Hasan Al.obaidy

The purpose of this study is to examine the dimensions of strategic intent (SI; see Appendix 1) according to the Hamel and Prahalad model as a building for the future, relying on…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the dimensions of strategic intent (SI; see Appendix 1) according to the Hamel and Prahalad model as a building for the future, relying on today’s knowledge-based and proactive strategic directions of management as long-term and deep-perspective creative directions, objective vision and rational analysis, integrative in work, survival structure and comprehensiveness in perception.

Design/methodology/approach

The quantitative approach was used based on research, detection and proof, as data were collected from leaders amounting to 70 respondents and analyzed in the SPSS program and ant colony optimization (see Appendix 1) algorithm and interpretation of the results.

Findings

It was found that the SI dimensions are poorly available due to problems related to foresight, capabilities and the strategic structure that represents the head of strategic objectives.

Practical implications

The empirical evaluation view of the study is valuable for leaders to draw a future strategy of advantage for organizations in developing countries to enrich their core capabilities by activating the SI dimensions.

Originality/value

It stems from a vital issue related to strategic dimensions aimed at a better future for strategic executive work, especially after the crisis that led to a significant decline in the level of performance of organizations.

Details

Nankai Business Review International, vol. 15 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2040-8749

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 14 November 2023

Xiaohui Xu and Yi Liu

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of managerial short-termism on green innovation of firms and the moderating role of digital transformation of enterprises in the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of managerial short-termism on green innovation of firms and the moderating role of digital transformation of enterprises in the association between managerial short-termism and green innovation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2021 and employ panel fixed model and moderating effect model to examine the impact of managerial short-termism on green innovation of firms and the moderating role of digital transformation of enterprises in the association between managerial short-termism and green innovation.

Findings

The findings of this study reveal that managerial short-termism exerts negative influence on green innovation. Digital transformation enables firms to reduce the adverse effect of managerial short-termism on green innovation because digital transformation enhances information processing ability and then improves internal corporate governance and analyst coverage. Moreover, the moderating role of digital transformation is more prominent for firms with lower internal corporate governance, for firms with less analyst coverage and for non-state-owned enterprises.

Originality/value

This paper intends to address the following two questions: what is the impact of managerial short-termism on green innovation and what is the role of digital transformation in the two variables’ association? By using data of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2001 to 2021 and developing two individual indexes to measure managerial short-termism and digital transformation, the authors empirically test these above two questions. The results of this study indicate that: First, drawn on time-oriented theory and upper echelon theory, managerial short-termism has an adverse effect on firms’ green innovation. Second, digital transformation enables firms to reduce the negative effect of managerial short-termism on green innovation. Furthermore, the moderating mechanism tests show that the corporate governance effects of digital transformation play a supervisory role that impels managers to reduce short-term investments and promote firms’ green R&D investments, which helps to reduce the negative effect of managerial short-termism on green innovation. Additionally, the heterogeneity checks show that the moderating role of digital transformation in the relation between managerial short-termism and green innovation is more prominent for firms with lower internal corporate governance, with less analyst coverage and for non-state-owned enterprises.

Details

Asia Pacific Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, vol. 17 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2071-1395

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 December 2023

Ruxin Zhang, Jun Lin, Suicheng Li and Ying Cai

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

Findings

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Research limitations/implications

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 39 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 December 2023

Vaishali Dhiman and Manpreet Arora

Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research…

Abstract

Purpose

Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation.

Design/methodology/approach

The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio.

Findings

With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability.

Research limitations/implications

Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time.

Practical implications

Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers.

Social implications

The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development.

Originality/value

This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 October 2022

Jeff Gold, Patricia Jolliffe, Jim Stewart, Catherine Glaister and Sallyann Halliday

The purpose of this paper is to argue that human resource development (HRD) needs to embrace and include futures and foresight learning (FFL) as a new addition to its field of…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to argue that human resource development (HRD) needs to embrace and include futures and foresight learning (FFL) as a new addition to its field of theorising and practice. The question to consider is: How can FFL become a new feature of HRD? A key part of the authors’ argument is that the inclusion of FFL will enable HRD to add to the success of any organisation and make a vital contribution to the management of people at work.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper firstly considers some of the debates surrounding the meaning of HRD. The authors suggest that instability of the time serves to disturb any comforts that have been created in HRD and that there is a need to consider how there might be different futures for what we still call HRD in research, practice and praxis. This paper then considers how FFL might become one possibility for expanding the existing boundaries of HRD. The authors characterise futures and foresight as a learning process, which provides new but complementary features to what is already considered as HRD. This paper will show how FFL can lead to organisation's success and the way this can be achieved.

Findings

There is a wide variety of meanings of the term HRD; however, HRD is still cast as a “weakened profession” which has to play a subservient role to others in the workplace. Over the last 15 years, the expansion of the meaning of HRD has been seen as evidence of its evolving and emerging nature and development based on a co-creation with other disciplines. This creates a space for FFL, defined as an ongoing learning process to find predictable, probable, possible and/or a variety of long-term futures. FFL embraces three key processes of scanning, futuring and reconfiguring, all of which contain a high potential for participants and others to learn as they proceed, providing outcomes at each stage. FFL has been shown to enhance organisation performance and success and HRD interventions can play a key part in implementation. This represents a significant opportunity for the HRD profession to move from weakness towards strength.

Research limitations/implications

For HRD researchers, while FFL is not yet on its radar, the authors would argue that the uncertainties of the future require that more attention be given to what might lie ahead. Indeed, HRD researchers need to ask the question: What is the future of HRD research? In addition, if the authors’ call for FFL to be included in the practice of HRD, such practice will itself provide new pathways for HRD research. Further research questions might include: To what extent is FFL practiced in organisations and what role do HRD practitioners play in delivery? How does FFL impact on organisation behaviour and outcomes? What new products and services emerge from FFL? What new skills are required to deliver FFL? Can FFL enhance the status of HRD practitioners in the work place and its role in decision-making? and How can the HRD profession develop as a hybrid profession with respect to machine learning (ML)/artificial intelligence (AI)?

Practical implications

FFL produces outcomes that have importance for strategy, HRD practitioner can learn to facilitate FFL by action learning and in leadership development programmes. FFL offers a significant opportunity to enhance the importance of HRD in organisations and beyond. FFL offers those involved in HRD a significant opportunity to transfer ideas into practice that have an impact on organisation sustainability. HRD can play a significant role in the design and delivery of ML and AI projects.

Originality/value

This paper concludes with a call for embracing FFL as a challenging but important addition to how we talk about learning at work. The authors argue that FFL offers a significant opportunity to enhance the importance of HRD in organisations and beyond. At its centre, FFL involves learning by people, groups, organisations and machines and this has to be of concern to HRD.

Details

European Journal of Training and Development, vol. 48 no. 1/2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-9012

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2024

Alexander Chulok, Maxim Kotsemir, Yadviga Radomirova and Sergey Shashnov

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

Findings

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

Article
Publication date: 23 March 2023

Deepmalya Datta, Manoj Joshi and Meenakshi Gandhi

The purpose of this study is to explore the principal research query and whether strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aims at crafting future…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore the principal research query and whether strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aims at crafting future readiness.

Design/methodology/approach

With a focus on entrepreneurial firms working in the alternative energy segment in the Indian context, the intent is to examine the deployment of strategic foresight by incumbent firms and their entrepreneurial journey. The authors have adopted the approach of Eisenhardt for this research. The area of interest for the authors entailing strategic foresight by entrepreneurial firms in energy transition aligns with defining features reflecting the aim of Eisenhardt method for this exploratory research coupled with constructivism.

Findings

While the future scenarios in the energy sector have to be necessarily multiple, their alignment with different geographic, economic, demographic and political outlooks shall be defined by the pathways niched through the deployment of strategic foresight for arriving at those scenarios.

Research limitations/implications

Strategic foresight deployed by entrepreneurial firms has the potential to create future readiness through self-reliant sustainable economic value chains for local populace, thus propagating holistic development in remote regions.

Originality/value

This paper attempts to knit together the domains of strategic foresight, entrepreneurial firms and energy transition through case research and present the future thinking deployed for navigation in uncharted pathways by capturing the foresight component of these incumbent firms chosen through careful case selection. The narrative has been strengthened by the varied interviews across participants and the observations made by the authors during the research work.

Article
Publication date: 9 June 2023

Judit Gáspár, Klaudia Gubová, Eva Hideg, Maciej Piotr Jagaciak, Lucie Mackova, András Márton, Weronika Rafał, Anna Sacio-Szymańska and Eva Šerá Komlossyová

The paper evaluates trends shaping the post-pandemic reality. The framework adopted is a case study of the V4 region (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) that…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper evaluates trends shaping the post-pandemic reality. The framework adopted is a case study of the V4 region (Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary) that illustrates broader trends, their direction of change and their influence on the entire region. This paper aims to identify key trends and analyse how they can facilitate or hinder sustainable development.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is based on a multidisciplinary literature review and an online real-time Delphi study carried out across four European countries.

Findings

The results indicate that the influence of negative trends on sustainability is much stronger than that of positive ones. Concerning the trends’ driving factors, the blockers of negative trends have a much higher influence on sustainability than the blockers of positive ones. The study shows that the most significant trends affecting sustainability are distributed throughout various fields of human activity, including geopolitics, social issues, education, the environment, technology and health.

Practical implications

The findings presented below can be used primarily by decision makers from the V4 region, who are responsible for crafting strategies regarding post-COVID recovery. The study illustrates trends that V4 countries and other European Union member states might be facing in the future and analyses how they relate to sustainability. The conclusions indicate that the most effective path to the desired level of sustainability is one that incorporates policies built around the blockers of negative trends.

Originality/value

The importance of this study lies in its focus on countries that had previously received little attention in scientific analyses. The paper shows their possible developmental pathways and sheds light on the framework of integrated foresight and its applications in sustainability-related areas.

Details

foresight, vol. 25 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 March 2024

Claudio Marciano, Alex Fergnani and Alberto Robiati

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Findings

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

Originality/value

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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