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Demand seasonality in the U.S. Imported Beer industry is common. The financial cycles of the past decade brought some extreme fluctuations to industry demand, which was trending upward. This research extends previous work in this area by comparing seasonal forecasting models for two time periods: 1999–2007 and 1999–2012. The previous study (Kros & Keller, 2010) examined the 1999–2007 time frame while this study extends their model using the new data. Models are developed within Excel and include a simple yearly model, a semi-annual model, a quarterly model, and a monthly model. The results of the models are compared and a discussion of each model’s efficacy is provided. While, the models did do a good job forecasting U.S. Import Beer sales from 1999 to 2007 the economic downturn starting in 2007 was deleterious to some models continued efficacy. When the data from the downturn is accounted for it is concluded that the seasonal models presented are doing an overall good job of forecasting U.S. Import Beer Sales and assisting managers in shorter time frame forecasting.

This chapter presents an Excel-based regression analysis to forecast seasonal demand for U.S. Imported Beer sales data. The following seasonal regression models are presented and interpreted including a simple yearly model, a quarterly model, a semi-annual model, and a monthly model. The results of the models are compared and a discussion of each model's efficacy is provided. The yearly model does the best at forecasting U.S. Import Beer sales. However, the yearly does not provide a window into shorter-term (i.e., monthly) forecasting periods and subsequent peaks and valleys in demand. Although the monthly seasonal regression model does not explain as much variance in the data as the yearly model it fits the actual data very well. The monthly model is considered a good forecasting model based on the significance of the regression statistics and low mean absolute percentage error. Therefore, it can be concluded that the monthly seasonal model presented is doing an overall good job of forecasting U.S. Import Beer Sales and assisting managers in shorter time frame forecasting.

In October 2004, Mr. Richard Sands, CEO of Constellation Brands, evaluated the potential purchase of The Robert Mondavi Corporation. Sands felt that Mondavi's wine beverage products would fit into the Constellation portfolio of alcohol beverage brands, and the opportunity to purchase Mondavi for a highly favorable price was quite possible due to recent management turmoil at that company. However, should it be purchased, strategic and operational changes would be necessary in order to fully achieve Mondavi's potential value. In making a decision, students need to consider the attractiveness of the wine industry, its changing structure, its share of the overall market for beverages, and rival firms' strategies. As rival bidders may emerge for Mondavi's brands, Constellation must offer a price that demonstrates its serious intent to acquire Mondavi.

Chinese beer consumption has undergone major changes within the last decade. The combination of a growing middle class and greater exposure to foreign products has resulted in a significant increase in beer imports. The authors examined transformations in this market and how beer preferences have changed over time. This study focuses on changes is origin-specific preferences (e.g. German beer and Mexican beer) as reflected by habit formation (i.e. dynamic consumption patterns) and changes in demand sensitivity to expenditure and prices.

The authors estimated Chinese beer demand – differentiated by source – using a generalized dynamic demand model that accounted for habit formation and trends, as well as the immediate and long-run effects of expenditures and prices on demand. The authors employed a rolling regression procedure that allowed for model estimates to vary with time. Preference changes were inferred from the changing demand estimates, with a particular focus on changes in habit formation, expenditure allocating behaviour, and own-price responsiveness.

Results suggest that Chinese beer preferences have changed significantly over the last decade, increasing for Mexican beer, Dutch beer and Belgian beer. German beer once dominated the Chinese market. However, all indicators suggest that German beer preferences are declining.

Although China is the world's third largest beer importing country behind the United States and France. Few studies have focused on this market. While dynamic analyses of alcoholic beverage demand are not new, this is the first study to examine the dynamics of imported beer preferences in China and implications for exporting countries.

Chester Whitney Wright (1879–1966) received his A.B. in 1901, A.M. in 1902 and Ph.D. in 1906, all from Harvard University. After teaching at Cornell University during 1906–1907, he taught at the University of Chicago from 1907 to 1944. Wright was the author of Economic History of the United States (1941, 1949); editor of Economic Problems of War and Its Aftermath (1942), to which he contributed a chapter on economic lessons from previous wars, and other chapters were authored by John U. Nef (war and the early industrial revolution) and by Frank H. Knight (the war and the crisis of individualism); and co-editor of Materials for the Study of Elementary Economics (1913). Wright’s Wool-Growing and the Tariff received the David Ames Wells Prize for 1907–1908, and was volume 5 in the Harvard Economic Studies. I am indebted to Holly Flynn for assistance in preparing Wright’s biography and in tracking down incomplete references; to Marianne Johnson in preparing many tables and charts; and to F. Taylor Ostrander, as usual, for help in transcribing and proofreading.

In the year 1918 Bohemia, which had ceased to be an independent State in the catastrophe of the “White Mountain” three hundred years before, again emerged as the Western part of the new State of Czecho Slovakia. It is beside the point to consider how this came about beyond stating that Masaryk, Benes, Stepanik, and their associates in Europe, the United States and Canada, in spite of and also because of the Great War, quickly and successfully re‐established their country as a separate political entity on the break‐up of the Austro‐Hungarian Empire. The new State includes, besides Bohemia, Moravia, part of Siberia, and in its eastern part Ruthenia. Its area is about 50 thousand square miles. Its somewhat racially varied population is 14¾ million. Czecho Slovakia is the most central of European States. It has no seaboard, but Pressburg on the Danube is a not unimportant port. At present it is scarcely well served by canals. The railways under Austro‐Hungarian rule would seem to have been built, in part at least, rather for purposes of military strategy, leaving some of the more important districts to be served by single lines which are in some cases in course of being doubled by the present Government, or have already been doubled.

A highly significant action taken by the Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, reported elsewhere in this issue, could well result in important advances in surveillance and probably legislative control over enforcement of certain aspects of EEC legislation in the Member‐states. The Minister has sent an urgent request to the Commission in Brussels to dispatch inspectors to each country, including the United Kingdom, to examine and report on the standards of inspection and hygiene with detailed information on how the EEC Directive on Poultry Meat is being implemented. Information of the method of financing the cost of poultrymeat inspection in each country has ben requested. The comprehensive survey is seen as a common approach in this one field. The Minister requested that the results of the inspectors' reports should be available to him and other Member‐states.

By these we mean the parliamentary counsel responsible for drafting the many statutes and statutory instruments of every kind, against whom there has been much criticism in recent years for the mass of indigestible legislation, a little of it almost incomprehensible, inflicted on society generally. What prompts us to return to the subject, after so recently castigating it as “hurry scurry” law, is the Labelling of Food Regulations, 1970. Not that this particular measure is anything but good, but looking at it, one cannot help wondering what was the purpose of the 1967 Regulations; a useless exercise in law‐making, since they will never come into force, being precipitately revoked by the new ones. Nor does it seem to have been hurried legislation, since it followed the reports of the Food Standards Committee after a lapse of several years. However, instances in which measures have been rushed through the legislative process, to prove subsequently inadequate, perhaps unworkable in parts, and sometimes completely disastrous, are multiplying during the life of the last Parliament. This may not always be the fault of the ligislature, for sometimes a new problem emerges or grows so rapidly that the law cannot keep up with it; then there is excuse for measures being rushed through to cope.

The next month or two behind us and this decade will have passed, to merge in the drab background of the post‐war years, part of the pattern of frustration, failure and fear. The ‘swinging sixties’ some called it, but to an older and perhaps slightly jaundiced eye, the only swinging seemed to be from one crisis to another, like the monkey swinging from bough to bough in his home among the trees; the ‘swingers’ among men also have their heads in the clouds! In the seemingly endless struggle against inflation since the end of the War, it would be futile to fail to see that the country is in retreat all the time. One can almost hear that shaft of MacLeodian wit christening the approaching decade as the ‘sinking seventies’, but it may not be as bad as all that, and certainly not if the innate good sense and political soundness of the British gives them insight into their perilous plight.

In May 1999, the CEO of this company (the largest brewer in Brazil) is contemplating a bid for Antarctica, the second-largest brewer in Brazil. The primary motives are to exploit economies of scale and other synergies and to prevent other competitors (mainly foreign multinationals) from acquiring the firm. The tasks for the student are to value the target and buyer, propose an exchange ratio of shares, and generally design the terms of the transaction.