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Book part
Publication date: 17 November 2010

Joanne S. Utley and J. Gaylord May

This study examines the use of forecast combination to improve the accuracy of forecasts of cumulative demand. A forecast combination methodology based on least absolute…

Abstract

This study examines the use of forecast combination to improve the accuracy of forecasts of cumulative demand. A forecast combination methodology based on least absolute value (LAV) regression analysis is developed and is applied to partially accumulated demand data from an actual manufacturing operation. The accuracy of the proposed model is compared with the accuracy of common alternative approaches that use partial demand data. Results indicate that the proposed methodology outperforms the alternative approaches.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-201-3

Book part
Publication date: 12 November 2014

Joanne Utley

This paper presents a mathematical programming model to reduce bias for both aggregate demand forecasts and lower echelon forecasts comprising a hierarchical forecasting

Abstract

This paper presents a mathematical programming model to reduce bias for both aggregate demand forecasts and lower echelon forecasts comprising a hierarchical forecasting system. Demand data from an actual service operation are used to illustrate the model and compare its accuracy with a standard approach for hierarchical forecasting. Results show that the proposed methodology outperforms the standard approach.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-209-8

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 August 2022

Bingfeng Bai

Despite the importance of demand forecasting in retail industry, its influence on supply chain agility has not been sufficiently examined. From a total information…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the importance of demand forecasting in retail industry, its influence on supply chain agility has not been sufficiently examined. From a total information technology (IT) capability perspective, the purpose of this paper is to examine the antecedent of supply chain agility through retail demand forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

Combining the literature reviews, the quantitative method of algorithm analysis was targeted at, and the firm data were processed on MATLAB.

Findings

This paper summarizes IT dimensions of demand forecasting in retail industry and distinguishes the relationship of supply chain agility and demand forecasting from an IT capability view.

Practical implications

Managers can derive a better understanding and measurement of operating activities that appropriately balance among supply chain agility, IT capability and demand forecast practice. Demand forecasting should be integrated into the firm operations to determine the agility level of supply chain in marketplace.

Originality/value

This paper constructs new theoretical grounds for research into the relationship of demand forecasting-supply chain agility and provides an empirical assessment of the essential components for the means to prioritize IT-supply chain.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Modern Management in the Global Mining Industry
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78973-788-2

Book part
Publication date: 17 January 2009

Joanne S. Utley and J. Gaylord May

This chapter uses advance order data from an actual manufacturing shop to develop and test a forecast model for total demand. The proposed model made direct use of…

Abstract

This chapter uses advance order data from an actual manufacturing shop to develop and test a forecast model for total demand. The proposed model made direct use of historical time series data for total demand and time series data for advance orders. Comparison of the proposed model to commonly used approaches showed that the proposed model exhibited greater forecast accuracy.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-548-8

Book part
Publication date: 10 June 2021

Michelle (Myongjee) Yoo and Sybil Yang

Forecasting is a vital part of hospitality operations because it allows businesses to make imperative decisions, such as pricing, promotions, distribution, scheduling, and…

Abstract

Forecasting is a vital part of hospitality operations because it allows businesses to make imperative decisions, such as pricing, promotions, distribution, scheduling, and arranging facilities, based on the predicted demand and supply. This chapter covers three main concepts related to forecasting: it provides an understanding of hospitality demand and supply, it introduces several forecasting methods for practical application, and it explains yield management as a function of forecasting. In the first section, characteristics of hospitality demand and supply are described and several techniques for managing demand and supply are addressed. In the second section, several forecasting methods for practical application are explored. In the third section, yield management is covered. Additionally, examples of yield management applications from airlines, hotels, and restaurants are presented.

Details

Operations Management in the Hospitality Industry
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-541-7

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 17 January 2009

Mark T. Leung, Rolando Quintana and An-Sing Chen

Demand forecasting has long been an imperative tenet in production planning especially in a make-to-order environment where a typical manufacturer has to balance the…

Abstract

Demand forecasting has long been an imperative tenet in production planning especially in a make-to-order environment where a typical manufacturer has to balance the issues of holding excessive safety stocks and experiencing possible stockout. Many studies provide pragmatic paradigms to generate demand forecasts (mainly based on smoothing forecasting models.) At the same time, artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been emerging as alternatives. In this chapter, we propose a two-stage forecasting approach, which combines the strengths of a neural network with a more conventional exponential smoothing model. In the first stage of this approach, a smoothing model estimates the series of demand forecasts. In the second stage, general regression neural network (GRNN) is applied to learn and then correct the errors of estimates. Our empirical study evaluates the use of different static and dynamic smoothing models and calibrates their synergies with GRNN. Various statistical tests are performed to compare the performances of the two-stage models (with error correction by neural network) and those of the original single-stage models (without error-correction by neural network). Comparisons with the single-stage GRNN are also included. Statistical results show that neural network correction leads to improvements to the forecasts made by all examined smoothing models and can outperform the single-stage GRNN in most cases. Relative performances at different levels of demand lumpiness are also examined.

Details

Advances in Business and Management Forecasting
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84855-548-8

Content available
Article
Publication date: 6 December 2021

Thomas R. O'Neal, John M. Dickens, Lance E. Champagne, Aaron V. Glassburner, Jason R. Anderson and Timothy W. Breitbach

Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious…

Abstract

Purpose

Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious resources and money by avoiding new start contracts to produce unforeseen part requests, reducing labor intensive cannibalization actions and ensuring consistent transportation modality streams where changes incur cost. This study explores the effectiveness of the United States Air Force’s current flying hour-based demand forecast by comparing it with a sortie-based demand forecast to predict future spare part needs.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs a correlation analysis to show that demand for reparable parts on certain aircraft has a stronger correlation to the number of sorties flown than the number of flying hours. The effect of using the number of sorties flown instead of flying hours is analyzed by employing sorties in the United States Air Force (USAF)’s current reparable parts forecasting model. A comparative analysis on D200 forecasting error is conducted across F-16 and B-52 fleets.

Findings

This study finds that the USAF could improve its reparable parts forecast, and subsequently part availability, by employing a sortie-based demand rate for particular aircraft such as the F-16. Additionally, our findings indicate that forecasts for reparable parts on aircraft with low sortie count flying profiles, such as the B-52 fleet, perform better modeling demand as a function of flying hours. Thus, evidence is provided that the Air Force should employ multiple forecasting techniques across its possessed, organically supported aircraft fleets. The improvement of the forecast and subsequent decrease in forecast error will be presented in the Results and Discussion section.

Research limitations/implications

This study is limited by the data-collection environment, which is only reported on an annual basis and is limited to 14 years of historical data. Furthermore, some observations were not included because significant data entry errors resulted in unusable observations.

Originality/value

There are few studies addressing the time measure of USAF reparable component failures. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies that analyze spare component demand as a function of sortie numbers and compare the results of forecasts made on a sortie-based demand signal to the current flying hour-based approach to spare parts forecasting. The sortie-based forecast is a novel methodology and is shown to outperform the current flying hour-based method for some aircraft fleets.

Details

Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-6439

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 June 2015

Masayasu Nagashima, Frederick T. Wehrle, Laoucine Kerbache and Marc Lassagne

This paper aims to empirically analyze how adaptive collaboration in supply chain management impacts demand forecast accuracy in short life-cycle products, depending on…

3002

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to empirically analyze how adaptive collaboration in supply chain management impacts demand forecast accuracy in short life-cycle products, depending on collaboration intensity, product life-cycle stage, retailer type and product category.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors assembled a data set of forecasts and sales of 169 still-camera models, made by the same manufacturer and sold by three different retailers in France over five years. Collaboration intensity, coded by collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment level, was used to analyze the main effects and specific interaction effects of all variables using ANOVA and ordered feature evaluation analysis (OFEA).

Findings

The findings lend empirical support to the long-standing assumption that supply chain collaboration intensity increases demand forecast accuracy and that product maturation also increases forecast accuracy even in short life-cycle products. Furthermore, the findings show that it is particularly the lack of collaboration that causes negative effects on forecast accuracy, while positive interaction effects are only found for life cycle stage and product category.

Practical implications

Investment in adaptive supply chain collaboration is shown to increase demand forecast accuracy. However, the choice of collaboration intensity should account for life cycle stage, retailer type and product category.

Originality/value

This paper provides empirical support for the adaptive collaboration concept, exploring not only the actual benefits but also the way it is achieved in the context of innovative products with short life cycles. The authors used a real-world data set and pushed its statistical analysis to a new level of detail using OFEA.

Details

Supply Chain Management: An International Journal, vol. 20 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-8546

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1987

Leslie Bernard Trustrum, F. Robert Blore and William James Paskins

Demand forecasting models are past the point of academic curiosity, and although they are still in the early stages of their life cycle, they are well beyond the…

1195

Abstract

Demand forecasting models are past the point of academic curiosity, and although they are still in the early stages of their life cycle, they are well beyond the development stage. The modelling of demand phenomena may be viewed as having two main thrusts: the first is a scientific one that leads to a greater understanding of the phenomena. Here, the goal is to build either normative or descriptive models which advance knowledge. The second is a pragmatic thrust concerned with the capability of management science to aid decision makers. A model is demonstrated and its future potential assessed.

Details

Marketing Intelligence & Planning, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-4503

Keywords

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