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Article
Publication date: 6 December 2021

Thomas R. O'Neal, John M. Dickens, Lance E. Champagne, Aaron V. Glassburner, Jason R. Anderson and Timothy W. Breitbach

Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious resources…

Abstract

Purpose

Forecasting techniques improve supply chain resilience by ensuring that the correct parts are available when required. In addition, accurate forecasts conserve precious resources and money by avoiding new start contracts to produce unforeseen part requests, reducing labor intensive cannibalization actions and ensuring consistent transportation modality streams where changes incur cost. This study explores the effectiveness of the United States Air Force’s current flying hour-based demand forecast by comparing it with a sortie-based demand forecast to predict future spare part needs.

Design/methodology/approach

This study employs a correlation analysis to show that demand for reparable parts on certain aircraft has a stronger correlation to the number of sorties flown than the number of flying hours. The effect of using the number of sorties flown instead of flying hours is analyzed by employing sorties in the United States Air Force (USAF)’s current reparable parts forecasting model. A comparative analysis on D200 forecasting error is conducted across F-16 and B-52 fleets.

Findings

This study finds that the USAF could improve its reparable parts forecast, and subsequently part availability, by employing a sortie-based demand rate for particular aircraft such as the F-16. Additionally, our findings indicate that forecasts for reparable parts on aircraft with low sortie count flying profiles, such as the B-52 fleet, perform better modeling demand as a function of flying hours. Thus, evidence is provided that the Air Force should employ multiple forecasting techniques across its possessed, organically supported aircraft fleets. The improvement of the forecast and subsequent decrease in forecast error will be presented in the Results and Discussion section.

Research limitations/implications

This study is limited by the data-collection environment, which is only reported on an annual basis and is limited to 14 years of historical data. Furthermore, some observations were not included because significant data entry errors resulted in unusable observations.

Originality/value

There are few studies addressing the time measure of USAF reparable component failures. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there are no studies that analyze spare component demand as a function of sortie numbers and compare the results of forecasts made on a sortie-based demand signal to the current flying hour-based approach to spare parts forecasting. The sortie-based forecast is a novel methodology and is shown to outperform the current flying hour-based method for some aircraft fleets.

Details

Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-6439

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 28 March 2023

Samhita Vemuri and Ziaul Haque Munim

While previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The…

Abstract

Purpose

While previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The price of transporting a container is not fixed and can fluctuate heavily over the course of a week. Besides, extant literature only identified seasonality patterns in the container freight market, but did not explore route-varying seasonality patterns. Hence, this study analyses container freight seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian routes of the South-East Asian Freight Index (SEAFI) and the index itself and forecasts them.

Design/methodology/approach

Data of the composite SEAFI and six routes are collected from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) including 167 weekly observations from 2016 to 2019. The SEAFI and individual route data reflect spot rates from the Shanghai Port to South-East Asia base ports. The authors analyse seasonality patterns using polar plots. For forecasting, the study utilize two univariate models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive neural network (SNNAR). For both models, the authors compare forecasting results of original level and log-transformed data.

Findings

This study finds that the seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian container trade routes are identical in an overall but exhibits unique characteristics. ARIMA models perform better than SNNAR models for one-week ahead test-sample forecasting. The SNNAR models offer better performance for 4-week ahead forecasting for two selected routes only.

Practical implications

Major industry players such as shipping lines, shippers, ship-owners and others should take into account the route-level seasonality patterns in their decision-making. Forecast analysts can consider using the original level data without log transformation in their analysis. The authors suggest using ARIMA models in one-step and four-step ahead forecasting for majority of the routes. The SNNAR models are recommended for multi-step forecasting for Shanghai to Vietnam and Shanghai to Thailand routes only.

Originality/value

This study analyses a new shipping index, that is, the SEAFI and its underlying six routes. The authors analyze the seasonality pattern of container freight rate data using polar plot and perform forecasting using ARIMA and SNNAR models. Moreover, the authors experiment forecasting performance of log-transformed and non-transformed series.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 26 November 2020

Quazi Mohammed Habibus Sakalayen, Okan Duru and Enna Hirata

Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the…

1166

Abstract

Purpose

Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting.

Design/methodology/approach

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit.

Findings

The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model.

Originality/value

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertainty-prone environment.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 6 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 25 May 2018

Veerachai Gosasang, Tsz Leung Yip and Watcharavee Chandraprakaikul

This paper aims to forecast inbound and outbound container throughput for Bangkok Port to 2041 and uses the results to inform the future planning and management of the port’s…

3600

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to forecast inbound and outbound container throughput for Bangkok Port to 2041 and uses the results to inform the future planning and management of the port’s container terminal.

Design/methodology/approach

The data used cover a period of 16 years (192 months of observations). Data sources include the Bank of Thailand and the Energy Policy and Planning Office. Cause-and-effect forecasting is adopted for predicting future container throughput by using a vector error correction model (VECM).

Findings

Forecasting future container throughput in Bangkok Port will benefit port planning. Various economic factors affect the volume of both inbound and outbound containers through the port. Three cases (scenarios) of container terminal expansion are analyzed and assessed, on the basis of which an optimal scenario is identified.

Research limitations/implications

The economic characteristics of Thailand differ from those of other countries/jurisdictions, such as the USA, the EU, Japan, China, Malaysia and Indonesia, and optimal terminal expansion scenarios may therefore differ from that identified in this study. In addition, six particular countries/jurisdictions are the dominant trading partners of Thailand, but these main trading partners may change in the future.

Originality/value

There are only two major projects that have forecast container throughput volumes for Bangkok Port. The first project, by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, applied both the trend of cargo volumes and the relationship of volumes with economic indices such as population and gross domestic product. The second project, by the Port Authority of Thailand, applied a moving average method to forecast the number of containers. Other authors have used time-series forecasting. Here, the authors apply a VECM to forecast the future container throughput of Bangkok Port.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 20 December 2021

Mei-Ling Cheng, Ching-Wu Chu and Hsiu-Li Hsu

This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to compare different univariate forecasting methods to provide a more accurate short-term forecasting model on the crude oil price for rendering a reference to manages.

Design/methodology/approach

Six different univariate methods, namely the classical decomposition model, the trigonometric regression model, the regression model with seasonal dummy variables, the grey forecast, the hybrid grey model and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), have been used.

Findings

The authors found that the grey forecast is a reliable forecasting method for crude oil prices.

Originality/value

The contribution of this research study is using a small size of data and comparing the forecasting results of the six univariate methods. Three commonly used evaluation criteria, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percent error (MAPE), were adopted to evaluate the model performance. The outcome of this work can help predict the crude oil price.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 3 July 2017

Joshua L. McDonald, Edward D. White, Raymond R. Hill and Christian Pardo

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting.

1044

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate an improved method for forecasting the US Army recruiting.

Design/methodology/approach

Time series methods, regression modeling, principle components and marketing research are included in this paper.

Findings

This paper found the unique ability of multiple statistical methods applied to a forecasting context to consider the effects of inputs that are controlled to some degree by a decision maker.

Research limitations/implications

This work will successfully inform the US Army recruiting leadership on how this improved methodology will improve their recruitment process.

Practical implications

Improved US Army analytical technique for forecasting recruiting goals..

Originality/value

This work culls data from open sources, using a zip-code-based classification method to develop more comprehensive forecasting methods with which US Army recruiting leaders can better establish recruiting goals.

Details

Journal of Defense Analytics and Logistics, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-6439

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 9 June 2021

Tomoya Kawasaki, Takuma Matsuda, Yui-yip Lau and Xiaowen Fu

In the maritime industry, it is vital to have a reliable forecast of container shipping demand. Although indicators of economic conditions have been used in modeling container…

1309

Abstract

Purpose

In the maritime industry, it is vital to have a reliable forecast of container shipping demand. Although indicators of economic conditions have been used in modeling container shipping demand on major routes such as those from East Asia to the USA, the duration of such indicators’ effects on container movement demand have not been systematically examined. To bridge this gap in research, this study aims to identify the important US economic indicators that significantly affect the volume of container movements and empirically reveal the duration of such impacts.

Design/methodology/approach

The durability of economic indicators on container movements is identified by a vector autoregression (VAR) model using monthly-based time-series data. In the VAR model, this paper can analyze the effect of economic indicators at t-k on container movement at time t. In the model, this paper considers nine US economic indicators as explanatory variables that are likely to affect container movements. Time-series data are used for 228 months from January 2001 to December 2019.

Findings

In the mainland China route, “building permission” receives high impact and has a duration of 14 months, reflecting the fact that China exports a high volume of housing-related goods to the USA. Regarding the South Korea and Japan routes, where high volumes of machinery goods are exported to the USA, the “index of industrial production” receives a high impact with 11 and 13 months’ duration, respectively. On the Taiwan route, as several types of goods are transported with significant shares, “building permits” and “index of industrial production” have important effects.

Originality/value

Freight demand forecasting for bulk cargo is a popular research field because of the public availability of several time-series data. However, no study to date has measured the impact and durability of economic indicators on container movement. To bridge the gap in the literature in terms of the impact of economic indicators and their durability, this paper developed a time-series model of the container movement from East Asia to the USA.

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 7 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 11 October 2021

Junwoo Jeon, Emrah Gulay and Okan Duru

This research analyzes the cycle of the dry bulk shipping market (DBSM) as a representative of spot and period charter rates in dry bulk shipping to develop strategies for…

Abstract

Purpose

This research analyzes the cycle of the dry bulk shipping market (DBSM) as a representative of spot and period charter rates in dry bulk shipping to develop strategies for investment timing (i.e. asset play) and fleet trading (chartering strategy).

Design/methodology/approach

Spectral analysis is a numerical approach to extract significant cyclicality, which may be utilized to develop trading strategies. Instead of working with a single dataset (univariate), a system approach can be utilized to observe a significant shipping market cycle in its multi-variate circumstance. In this paper, a system dynamics design is employed to extract cyclicality in the DBSM in its particular industrial environment. The system dynamic design has competitive forecasting accuracy relative to univariate time series models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) in terms of forecasting outcomes.

Findings

The results show that the system dynamic design has a better forecasting performance according to three evaluation metrics, mean absolute scale error (MASE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Originality/value

Cyclical analysis is a significantly useful instrument for shipping asset management, particularly in market entry–exit operations. This paper investigated the cyclical nature of the dry bulk shipping business and estimated significant business cycle periodicity at around 4.5-year frequency (i.e. the Kitchin cycle).

Details

Maritime Business Review, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2397-3757

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 21 August 2020

Said El Noshokaty

The purpose of this paper is to resolve three problems in ship routing and scheduling systems. Problem 1 is the anticipation of the future cargo transport demand when the shipping…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to resolve three problems in ship routing and scheduling systems. Problem 1 is the anticipation of the future cargo transport demand when the shipping models are stochastic based on this demand. Problem 2 is the capacity of these models in processing large number of ships and cargoes within a reasonable time. Problem 3 is the viability of tramp shipping when it comes to real problems.

Design/methodology/approach

A commodity-trade forecasting system is developed, an information technology platform is designed and new shipping elements are added to the models to resolve tramp problems of en-route ship bunkering, low-tide port calls and hold-cleaning cost caused by carrying incompatible cargoes.

Findings

More realistic stochastic cargo quantity and freight can now be anticipated, larger number of ships and cargoes are now processed in time and shipping systems are becoming more viable.

Practical implications

More support goes to ship owners to make better shipping decisions.

Originality/value

New norms are established in forecasting, upscaling and viability in ship routing and scheduling systems.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 December 2023

Isuru Udayangani Hewapathirana

This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.

Abstract

Purpose

This study explores the pioneering approach of utilising machine learning (ML) models and integrating social media data for predicting tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.

Design/methodology/approach

Two sets of experiments are performed in this research. First, the predictive accuracy of three ML models, support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF) and artificial neural network (ANN), is compared against the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model using historical tourist arrivals as features. Subsequently, the impact of incorporating social media data from TripAdvisor and Google Trends as additional features is investigated.

Findings

The findings reveal that the ML models generally outperform the SARIMA model, particularly from 2019 to 2021, when several unexpected events occurred in Sri Lanka. When integrating social media data, the RF model performs significantly better during most years, whereas the SVR model does not exhibit significant improvement. Although adding social media data to the ANN model does not yield superior forecasts, it exhibits proficiency in capturing data trends.

Practical implications

The findings offer substantial implications for the industry's growth and resilience, allowing stakeholders to make accurate data-driven decisions to navigate the unpredictable dynamics of Sri Lanka's tourism sector.

Originality/value

This study presents the first exploration of ML models and the integration of social media data for forecasting Sri Lankan tourist arrivals, contributing to the advancement of research in this domain.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

Keywords

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