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1 – 10 of 458Tongzheng Pu, Chongxing Huang, Haimo Zhang, Jingjing Yang and Ming Huang
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory…
Abstract
Purpose
Forecasting population movement trends is crucial for implementing effective policies to regulate labor force growth and understand demographic changes. Combining migration theory expertise and neural network technology can bring a fresh perspective to international migration forecasting research.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes a conditional generative adversarial neural network model incorporating the migration knowledge – conditional generative adversarial network (MK-CGAN). By using the migration knowledge to design the parameters, MK-CGAN can effectively address the limited data problem, thereby enhancing the accuracy of migration forecasts.
Findings
The model was tested by forecasting migration flows between different countries and had good generalizability and validity. The results are robust as the proposed solutions can achieve lesser mean absolute error, mean squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and R2 values, reaching 0.9855 compared to long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit, generative adversarial network (GAN) and the traditional gravity model.
Originality/value
This study is significant because it demonstrates a highly effective technique for predicting international migration using conditional GANs. By incorporating migration knowledge into our models, we can achieve prediction accuracy, gaining valuable insights into the differences between various model characteristics. We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to enhance our understanding of these differences and provide clear and concise explanations for our model predictions. The results demonstrated the theoretical significance and practical value of the MK-CGAN model in predicting international migration.
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Patrik Jonsson, Johan Öhlin, Hafez Shurrab, Johan Bystedt, Azam Sheikh Muhammad and Vilhelm Verendel
This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to explore and empirically test variables influencing material delivery schedule inaccuracies?
Design/methodology/approach
A mixed-method case approach is applied. Explanatory variables are identified from the literature and explored in a qualitative analysis at an automotive original equipment manufacturer. Using logistic regression and random forest classification models, quantitative data (historical schedule transactions and internal data) enables the testing of the predictive difference of variables under various planning horizons and inaccuracy levels.
Findings
The effects on delivery schedule inaccuracies are contingent on a decoupling point, and a variable may have a combined amplifying (complexity generating) and stabilizing (complexity absorbing) moderating effect. Product complexity variables are significant regardless of the time horizon, and the item’s order life cycle is a significant variable with predictive differences that vary. Decoupling management is identified as a mechanism for generating complexity absorption capabilities contributing to delivery schedule accuracy.
Practical implications
The findings provide guidelines for exploring and finding patterns in specific variables to improve material delivery schedule inaccuracies and input into predictive forecasting models.
Originality/value
The findings contribute to explaining material delivery schedule variations, identifying potential root causes and moderators, empirically testing and validating effects and conceptualizing features that cause and moderate inaccuracies in relation to decoupling management and complexity theory literature?
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Ismael Castillo-Ortiz, Minwoo Lee, Scott Taylor and Diego Bufquin
This paper aims to uncover patterns of Mexican craft beer consumers and guide companies’ decisions in the creation of new products, marketing strategies, advertising and promotion…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to uncover patterns of Mexican craft beer consumers and guide companies’ decisions in the creation of new products, marketing strategies, advertising and promotion to increase craft beer sales and contribute to faster growth.
Design/methodology/approach
This is a conjoint analysis with a selection of attributes for new or renewed products, marginal disposition to pay for particular characteristics through brand-specific choice-based design, and market simulation.
Findings
This paper clearly demonstrates consumers’ preferences and willingness to pay in Mexico, with a cutting-edge market research technique combining the prioritization of preferred craft beer characteristics, and the price consumers are willing to pay for such product characteristics.
Research limitations/implications
The study's sample size of 501 responses is relatively small compared to the total number of craft beer consumers in Mexico. To enhance the validity and reliability of the findings, future studies should aim to obtain larger samples and compare their results with those of this study.
Practical implications
This study has important implications for craft beer producers, allowing them to develop targeted craft beers with appealing attributes for Mexican consumers, such as color, aroma intensity, alcohol degree intensity, bitterness, foam level and price.
Social implications
This study's market forecasting simulation technique is based on assumptions of consumer behavior and market dynamics. Although relevant variables were considered, unanticipated external factors or market changes could impact the forecasts' accuracy. This will allow for a more comprehensive understanding of craft beer consumer preferences in different markets and enhance the reliability of forecasting techniques.
Originality/value
This paper informs craft beer producers by providing valuable knowledge on customers’ preferences and willingness to pay to enhance craft beer companies’ product development processes.
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This study aims to develop the alleviating bullwhip effects framework (ABEF) replenishment rules, and bullwhip, inventory fluctuations and customer service fulfilment rates were…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to develop the alleviating bullwhip effects framework (ABEF) replenishment rules, and bullwhip, inventory fluctuations and customer service fulfilment rates were examined. In addition, automated smoothing and replenishment rules can alleviate supply chain bullwhip effects. This study aims to understand the current artificial intelligence (AI) implementation practice in alleviating bullwhip effects in supply chain management. This study aimed to develop a system for writing reviews using a systematic approach.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology for the present study consists of three parts: Part 1 deals with the systematic review process. In Part 2, the study applies social network analysis (SNA) to the fourth phase of the systematic review process. In Part 3, the author discusses developing research clusters to analyse the research state more granularly. Systematic literature reviews synthesize scientific evidence through repeatable, transparent and rigorous procedures. By using this approach, you can better interpret and understand the data. The author used two databases (EBSCO and World of Science) for unbiased analysis. In addition, systematic reviews follow preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses.
Findings
The study uses UCINET6 software to analyse the data. The study found that specific topics received high centrality (more attention) from scholars when it came to the study topic. Contrary to this, others experienced low centrality scores when using NETDRAW visualization graphs and dynamic capability clusters. Comprehensive analyses are used for the study’s comparison of clusters.
Research limitations/implications
This study used a journal publication as the only source of information. Peer-reviewed journal papers were eliminated for their lack of rigorousness in evaluating the state of practice. This paper discusses the bullwhip effect of digital technology on supply chain management. Considering the increasing use of “AI” in their publications, other publications dealing with sensor integration could also have been excluded. To discuss the top five and bottom five topics, the author used magazines and tables.
Practical implications
The study explores the practical implications of smoothing the bullwhip effect through AI systems, collaboration, leadership and digital skills. Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming a preferred tool in the supply chain, so management must understand the opportunities and challenges associated with its implementation. Furthermore, managers should consider how AI can influence supply chain collaboration concerning trust and forecasting to smooth the bullwhip effect.
Social implications
Digital leadership and addressing the digital skills gap are also essential for the success of AI systems. According to the framework, it is necessary to balance AI performance and accountability. As a result of the framework and structured management approach, the author can examine the implications of AI along the supply chain.
Originality/value
The study uses a systematic literature review based on SNA to analyse how AI can alleviate the bullwhip effects of supply chain disruption and identify the focused and the most important AI topics related to the bullwhip phenomena. SNA uses qualitative and quantitative methodologies to identify research trends, strengths, gaps and future directions for research. Salient topics for reviewing papers were identified. Centrality metrics were used to analyse the contemporary topic’s importance, including degree, betweenness and eigenvector centrality. ABEF is presented in the study.
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Bryan Pieterse, Kofi Agyekum, Patrick Manu, Saeed Reza Mohandes, Clara Cheung and Akilu Yunusa-Kaltungo
Major maintenance projects are often regarded as maintenance activities regardless of the projects' complexity and scale. Consequently, very scarce research attention has hitherto…
Abstract
Purpose
Major maintenance projects are often regarded as maintenance activities regardless of the projects' complexity and scale. Consequently, very scarce research attention has hitherto been paid to the critical skills required when undertaking these projects. More specifically, the body of relevant knowledge is deprived of a study focusing on maintenance projects within the energy sector. In view of this shortcoming, this research aims to examine the critical project management (PM) skills required to deliver major maintenance projects within the energy sector.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on a quantitative research strategy, this study addressed the knowledge gap through a cross-sectional survey of professionals involved in the delivery of major maintenance projects in the United Kingdom's (UK) energy sector. Data obtained were analyzed via descriptive (e.g. frequencies, mean and standard deviation [SD]) and inferential statistical analyses (One sample t-test and exploratory factor analysis (EFA)).
Findings
Out of the 45 PM skills identified in the literature and examined by the respondents, the results obtained from the One sample t-test (based on p (1-tailed) = 0.05) showed that 37 were considered to be at least “important,” accounting for 80.4% of all the skills identified. EFA revealed a clustering of the PM skills items into seven components: “skills related to work scheduling and coordination”; “communication, risk, safety and stakeholder management skills”; “quality assurance skills”; “people management skills”; “skills related to forecasting scope and duration of outage”; “implementation of processes and time management skills” and “technical/engineering skills and experience pertaining to the outage and local site knowledge.”
Originality/value
This study has identified and contributed to the limited state-of-the-art skills project managers must possess to manage major maintenance projects in the energy sector successfully. The findings would be useful to organizations within the energy sector in ensuring that the organizations have suitable personnel in place to deliver major maintenance projects on the organizations' assets.
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Juho Park, Junghwan Cho, Alex C. Gang, Hyun-Woo Lee and Paul M. Pedersen
This study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to identify an automated machine learning algorithm with high accuracy that sport practitioners can use to identify the specific factors for predicting Major League Baseball (MLB) attendance. Furthermore, by predicting spectators for each league (American League and National League) and division in MLB, the authors will identify the specific factors that increase accuracy, discuss them and provide implications for marketing strategies for academics and practitioners in sport.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used six years of daily MLB game data (2014–2019). All data were collected as predictors, such as game performance, weather and unemployment rate. Also, the attendance rate was obtained as an observation variable. The Random Forest, Lasso regression models and XGBoost were used to build the prediction model, and the analysis was conducted using Python 3.7.
Findings
The RMSE value was 0.14, and the R2 was 0.62 as a consequence of fine-tuning the tuning parameters of the XGBoost model, which had the best performance in forecasting the attendance rate. The most influential variables in the model are “Rank” of 0.247 and “Day of the week”, “Home team” and “Day/Night game” were shown as influential variables in order. The result was shown that the “Unemployment rate”, as a macroeconomic factor, has a value of 0.06 and weather factors were a total value of 0.147.
Originality/value
This research highlights unemployment rate as a determinant affecting MLB game attendance rates. Beyond contextual elements such as climate, the findings of this study underscore the significance of economic factors, particularly unemployment rates, necessitating further investigation into these factors to gain a more comprehensive understanding of game attendance.
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Abdulmohsen S. Almohsen, Naif M. Alsanabani, Abdullah M. Alsugair and Khalid S. Al-Gahtani
The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the…
Abstract
Purpose
The variance between the winning bid and the owner's estimated cost (OEC) is one of the construction management risks in the pre-tendering phase. The study aims to enhance the quality of the owner's estimation for predicting precisely the contract cost at the pre-tendering phase and avoiding future issues that arise through the construction phase.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper integrated artificial neural networks (ANN), deep neural networks (DNN) and time series (TS) techniques to estimate the ratio of a low bid to the OEC (R) for different size contracts and three types of contracts (building, electric and mechanic) accurately based on 94 contracts from King Saud University. The ANN and DNN models were evaluated using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean sum square error (MSSE) and root mean sums square error (RMSSE).
Findings
The main finding is that the ANN provides high accuracy with MAPE, MSSE and RMSSE a 2.94%, 0.0015 and 0.039, respectively. The DNN's precision was high, with an RMSSE of 0.15 on average.
Practical implications
The owner and consultant are expected to use the study's findings to create more accuracy of the owner's estimate and decrease the difference between the owner's estimate and the lowest submitted offer for better decision-making.
Originality/value
This study fills the knowledge gap by developing an ANN model to handle missing TS data and forecasting the difference between a low bid and an OEC at the pre-tendering phase.
Rinu Sathyan, Parthiban Palanisamy, Suresh G. and Navin M.
The automotive industry appears to overcome much of its obstacles, despite the constant struggle facing COVID-19. The pandemic has resulted in significant improvements in the…
Abstract
Purpose
The automotive industry appears to overcome much of its obstacles, despite the constant struggle facing COVID-19. The pandemic has resulted in significant improvements in the habits and conduct of consumers. There is an increased preference for personal mobility. In this dynamic environment with unexpected changes and high market rivalry, automotive supply chains focus more on executing responsive strategies with minimum costs. This paper aims to identify and model the drivers to the responsiveness of automotive supply chain.
Design/methodology/approach
Seventeen drivers for supply chain responsiveness have been identified from the extensive literature, expert interview. An integrated methodology of fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory–interpretive structural modelling (DEMATEL–ISM) is developed to establish the interrelationship between the drivers. The cause–effect relationship between the drivers was obtained through fuzzy DEMATEL technique, and a hierarchical structure of the drivers was developed using the ISM technique.
Findings
The result of the integrated methodology revealed that strategic decision-making of management, accurate forecasting of demand, advanced manufacturing system in the organisation and data integration tools are the critical drivers.
Research limitations/implications
This study has conceptual and analytical limitations. In this study, a limited number of drivers are examined for supply chain responsiveness. Further research may examine the role of other key performance indicators in the broad field of responsiveness in the automotive supply chain or other industry sectors. Future study can uncover the interrelationships and relative relevance of indicators using advanced multi-criteria decision-making methodologies.
Originality/value
The authors proposed an integrated methodology that will be benefitted to the supply chain practitioners and automotive manufacturers to develop management strategies to improve responsiveness. This study further helps to compare the responsiveness of the supply chain between various automotive manufacturers.
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Vesa Tiitola, Tuomas Jalonen, Mirva Rantanen-Flores, Tuomas Korhonen, Johanna Ruusuvuori and Teemu Laine
This paper aims to explore how the maieutic role of management accounting (MA) can be sustained in the context of MA digitalization.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to explore how the maieutic role of management accounting (MA) can be sustained in the context of MA digitalization.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper begins with practitioners’ descriptions of the context that makes the MA support of non-routine decisions maieutic. To understand how the maieutic characteristics can be sustained in future MA digitalization, the authors then analyze the discourses these practitioners have about artificial intelligence (AI) in providing MA support.
Findings
As a basis, the authors’ data show various maieutic characteristics within the use of MA answers in decision-making as well as within the MA process of generating such answers. The paper then identifies three MA digitalization discourses, namely, “computation,” “judgment” and human-AI “interaction” discourse, each with their unique agendas on how AI should be used.
Originality/value
The paper is based on the premises that AI and digitalization are often discussed without sufficient understanding about the context being digitalized. The authors’ data suggest that MA support in non-routine decision-making is fundamentally maieutic, and AI – as it currently stands – is not expected to change this by providing perfect answers. The authors provide novel insights about maieutic MA support and the current discourses on using AI in MA support, and how digitalization does not necessarily compromise maieutic MA support but instead has the potential to sustain or even enhance it.
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Amani Natheesha Karunathilake and Anuja Fernando
Air transport accounts for nearly 40% worth of the global trade cargo volume, where more than 50% of the air cargo is carried on passenger flights. Therefore, this paper aims to…
Abstract
Purpose
Air transport accounts for nearly 40% worth of the global trade cargo volume, where more than 50% of the air cargo is carried on passenger flights. Therefore, this paper aims to focus on identifying the influencing factors for both passenger and cargo demand-driven networks to smoothen the global supply chain.
Design/methodology/approach
The data for the study was collected through literature reviews and interviews with industry experts. The analytical hierarchy process was used to analyze the expert's opinions on the critical factors affecting air cargo demand growth. Regression analysis was conducted using the selected variables to develop a model to calculate air cargo demand growth.
Findings
According to the expert opinion, it was identified that facilities under airport capacities and facilities are mainly affected by the air cargo carried by combi carriers. The model was developed considering the air connectivity index and air cargo demand at destination variables.
Research limitations/implications
The factors identified here are mainly related to the current situation in Sri Lanka. Applying this methodology to other economic zones will add new factors related to their economic contexts and could be generalized as the influencing factors for the growth of air cargo demand by finding more results.
Originality/value
Previous studies have been conducted using different factors and models to forecast air cargo demand, and those did not consider demand from combi and all-cargo carriers together. More than 98% of air cargo trades in Sri Lanka are happening through combi carriers. Hence, Sri Lanka will be a best case study to analyze the behavior of combi carriers.
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