Search results

While undergoing currency crises, countries under fixed exchange rate regime elect to adopt flexible exchange rate regime. It is generally expected that if a country launches floating exchange rate regime, the exchange rate volatility increases. Therefore, the increase in exchange rate volatility may increase exposures to currency risks at the firm level. Previous research, however, such as Bian, Park and Cho (2006) shows that right after the currency crisis of 1997~1998, currency risk exposure for Korean firms actually decreased after the government adopted flexible exchange rate regime. In this study, we intend to study the effects of changes in exchange rate regimes on foreign currency exposures at the firm level around the currency crises in the 1990s using worldwide data. We use 2116 firms in 23 countries finds evidence that exchange rate exposure of majority of firms decreases after the financial crises. In a sub-sample analysis in which sub-samples are created depending on whether the home country changed exchange rate regime from fixed to flexible, we find that the reduction of exposure was greater for firms in countries that changed the regimes than those in countries that did not.

This paper aims to empirically investigate the sources of real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt using structural vector autoregression (SVAR). The data covers the period between 1980 and 2016, where exchange regime has been changed more than once.

This paper investigates the source of real exchange rate fluctuations for the period between 1980 and 2016 using the SVAR method. The SVAR method will incorporate real gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and price level in a multidimensional equations system. However, impulse response function (IRF) and error variance decompositions (EVDC) will be generated by the system to have a behavioral insight of real exchange rate in response to economic shocks.

The IRF and EVDC results indicate a significant impact of demand shocks over the real exchange rate relative to supply shocks and monetary shocks in the period between 1980 and 2016. On the other hand, monetary shocks will have a negligible effect on the real exchange rate in the short run and converging to its previous level in the covering period of the study.

In the best of the authors' knowledge, the topic of the source of the real exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt has not been discussed in a wide range due to the lack of time series data. However, this study provides constructed data for REER for Egypt with the published method in the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, the study involves theoretical and econometric modeling to ensure the reliability of the economic results.

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.

The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.

This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.

One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

This paper aims to test purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, which are known as the GIIPS countries.

The authors conduct a comprehensive analysis by using unit root approaches without and with structural breaks and non-linearity.

The PPP is valid for the GIIPS countries. Considering structural breaks in non-linear framework plays a crucial role.

There is no empirical study testing PPP hypothesis by focusing on the GIIPS countries. This study further takes into account for structural breaks and non-linearity in the real exchange rates of these countries.

This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables such as real exchange rate, exchange-rate volatility, and economic growth of the UK and Norway on Norway’s bilateral trade flow to the UK via maritime and other transport modes. The first two models considered trade volume (import and export) via only maritime transport, while the third and fourth models considered trade volume via modes other than maritime transport. The empirical validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition is tested to see whether a devaluation of the real exchange rate improves the trade balance in the long term. In addition to the long-term relationship among variables, short-term effects are also evaluated. The results show that the real income of Norway and its trading partner (the UK) is the main determinant of bilateral trade flow via maritime and other transport modes. Moreover, the results indicate that in the long run, the Marshall-Lerner condition is satisfied only for bilateral trade via modes other than maritime transport.

The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia.

This study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach.

The asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2008–2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies.

Economic variables are important in the determination of stock prices.

It is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.