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This paper investigates the financial risk factors associated with fiscal distress in local governments. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, while negatively correlated with administrative costs and entity resources. The regression model results in a prediction of the likelihood of fiscal distress, which correctly classifies up to 91% of the sample as fiscally distressed or not. The model also allows for an analysis of the impact of a change in a risk factor on the likelihood of fiscal distress. A decrease in intergovernmental revenues as a percent of total revenues and an increase in administrative expenditures as a percent of total expenditures have the biggest influences on reducing the likelihood of fiscal distress.

Identifying tools for predicting fiscally distressed local governments has received heightened attention following the Great Recession of 2007–2009. Despite the recent expansion of research, measuring fiscal distress is challenging because of the operational complexity associated with the term. Furthermore, many local governments are too small to produce a Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR), upon which many empirical studies of fiscal condition or fiscal distress are based. This study designs a parsimonious tool for identifying fiscally distressed entities based on existing literature. The authors examine Nebraska's 93 counties over a nine-year period (from 2010 to 2018). In order to ensure the validity of our tool, we replicate two well-known empirical approaches of assessing local fiscal condition and compare the results with ours. The authors find nearly all counties in Nebraska to be free from fiscal distress in the past decade. However, since most counties in Nebraska have small populations and are far from urban centers, they may still be vulnerable to future fiscal shocks and may need to closely monitor their fiscal condition.

The authors offer a parsimonious method for assessing the existence of fiscally distressed counties. They select predictors of fiscal distress based on two criteria. First, for the purpose of this study, the authors use financial information that is uniform, easily accessible and does not rely on CAFRs. In order to make their model parsimonious and replicable, the authors only consider factors that have the most decisive effects on local fiscal conditions. Second, the authors draw on indicators that have been consistently supported by previous studies (e.g., Kloha et al., 2005; Gorina et al., 2018). The authors test the validity of this approach using correlation analysis and regression modeling, similar to Wang et al. (2007).

The authors’ fiscal distress measure shows encouraging signs. Results show that all but Brown's model are highly correlated. The decile and standard deviation models have the strongest correlation (r = 0.955, p < 0.01). These two models are also significantly associated with Kloha et al.'s model. Their correlation coefficients are 0.812 and 0.830, respectively. Consistent with Wang et al. (2007), the authors find modest associations between our fiscal measures and socioeconomic measures.

Limitations include questions of generalizability – we are only studying Nebraska counties. The extent to which the findings are generalizable to counties in other states remains to be seen. We advise readers and policymakers to bear in mind that at this point, there is no perfect way to measure local fiscal condition or fiscal distress. Specifically, with our model, the foremost advantages of parsimony are data accessibility and replicability. However, unlike other existing tools that consider dozens of indicators, our tool bears the cost of not employing a more comprehensive perspective that may be required to capture a full picture of local fiscal condition.

The purpose of this research was to construct and present a parsimonious way of identifying local fiscal distress that is easily replicated and applied in practice. The challenges were operational – both in terms of definition and measurement. Fiscal distress is a nebulous concept that can vary based on the researcher's intent. Our chosen set of indicators have two characteristics: accessibility of financial information and consistency with past studies. Thus, we assess two of the four dimensions of solvency: budgetary solvency and long-run solvency. The authors suggest that this effort should not be used as a tool by state lawmakers to accuse and judge local governments. Instead, it should be used to assist local governments as Iowa and Colorado do. The findings could be the beginning of a conversation between the state and local governments to determine the best course(s) of action. As previously mentioned, there are many causes of fiscal distress and poor decision-making is not very common. Looking into the future, the authors expect more local governments to become fiscally distressed and the primary cause would be economic/demographic change. Since many local governments in Nebraska have very small populations and are far from the urban centers of Omaha and Lincoln, they might be vulnerable to future fiscal shocks. Thus, state lawmakers need to begin considering strategies to deal with local fiscal distress. The authors do have limitations in measurement. However, if used appropriately, this research can add value to the discussion of managing local government fiscal distress in Nebraska and other similar states.

While the analysis finds little fiscal distress currently in Nebraska, there is concern that with population migration to the urban areas and the “graying” of the state, local governments in rural areas (the vast majority in Nebraska) could face more serious issues in future years. A recent study showed that local fiscal condition is negatively associated with the distance from the municipality to the urban centers of Omaha and Lincoln (Maher et al., 2019). These spatial effects could be further exacerbated in a state that ranks near the bottom in financial support of local governments and policy makers are committed to “controlling” property taxes.

This study, while building on prior work, is unique in that it focuses on counties as opposed to municipalities, which are the most common units of analysis. The authors also offer a model for assessing fiscal distress in a state that currently does not have state-level systems to monitor local finances. Finally, rather than relying on audited annual financial reports which would disqualify many smaller local governments, the authors offer a parsimonious tool that is easily replicated and can be used by all local governments that submit uniform financial reports to their states.

This paper uses survival analysis to investigate fiscal distress in special district governments. We hypothesize that fiscal distress is positively correlated with revenue concentration and debt usage, and negatively correlated with organizational slack and entity resources. Our model addresses differences in district functions, financing and legislation. Our regression model predicts the likelihood of fiscal distress and correctly classifies 93.4 percent of the districts as fiscally distressed or not. The results show that the most important indicator of fiscal distress is a low level of capital expenditures relative to total revenues and bond proceeds. The information needed to predict fiscal distress is publicly available, making our model useful in the prevention, detection, and mitigation of fiscal distress in U.S. districts.

This study aims to analyze whether and how a set of financial ratios calculated on the basis of financial statement information would allow auditors of Italian local governments (LGs) to get an indication of LGs’ financial distress risk and, hence, to support politicians and managers in promptly detecting financial distress.

A model comprising a set of financial indicators that would distinguish distressed from not distressed LGs through a logistic regression approach has been estimated and applied to Italian LGs. The model is built on the basis of information pertaining to 44 distressed and 53 not distressed LGs for up to five years prior to bankruptcy and covers the period 2003-2012.

The model reveals that the percentage of personnel expenses over revenues, the turnover ratio of short-term liabilities over current revenues and the reliance on subsidies (calculated as subsidies per capita) are factors discriminating non-distressed LGs from the distressed ones.

The model could have political and practical implications. The possible use of this model as a complementary tool in auditing activities might be helpful for auditors in detecting financial distress promptly, thus potentially enabling politicians and managers to search for different ways to manage public resources to avoid the detrimental consequences related to the declaration of distress.

This model, contrary to existing models that use accrual accounting data, is applicable to LGs that adopt a modified cash accounting basis.

This study attempts to analyze the role of governance mechanisms in municipal bankruptcy, which appears to be a neglected area of research. The analysis considers both the organizational level (micro) and the regulatory system (macro).

We use a relevant case of municipal bankruptcy in Italy to discuss the influence of governance characteristics, such as the political and management structure, interaction, and behaviors. The issues related to the accounting system and external audits are also considered. The data for this study are obtained from secondary sources such as audited budgetary reports, public documents, and reports from the Supreme Audit Institution.

The study indicates that the spoils system can favor the politicians’ exercise of power over public managers and undermine the capacity to prevent and manage financial distress. Poor accounting and weak control systems may facilitate this process. The high turnover of top management throughout a mayor’s term in office may reflect political pressure to force accounting rules and achieve flexibility to obtain the expected results or to correct poor financial performance.

To avert municipal bankruptcies, regulations should consider enforcing ex ante control by external oversight bodies, forbidding risky operations and limiting the spoils system for financial management positions and internal auditors.

Municipal defaults around the world have indicated that regulations and audits are ineffective to prevent local governments from failing. A full understanding of complex mutual interactions between the mechanisms of governance and the behaviors of politicians and managers can provide valuable insights to prevent local governments from failing.

Inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) has been increasingly adopted worldwide to tackle issues of size and cost reduction in the provision of public services. Although the determinants of cooperation among municipalities have been widely investigated in the prior literature, little is known about the link between a municipality's financial health and that of the supra-municipal entity formed under IMC. The purpose of this study is to fill this research gap by analyzing the case of municipal unions (MUs) in Italy.

A quantitative approach has been used, applying OLS and quantile regression on financial information and other variables of municipalities and their MUs.

The study finds that the most important condition of operation for IMC, that is, financial sustainability, is directly linked to the financial health of member municipalities and the functional integration reached with the supra-municipal entity.

The study analyses all MUs in Italy, focusing on the factors affecting their financial sustainability. In doing so, it sheds light on the factors that influence the financial sustainability of second-tier governments, which rely on external funding.

Financial stress features frequently as an explanatory factor in research into decisions concerning the contracting out, or decentralisation, of local public services, though existing empirical studies are not unanimous in their conclusions. The understanding of how financial crises influence these processes could be enhanced by the use of a dynamic methodology that takes into account the following three aspects: the duration of the financial stress, the effectiveness of the action taken and the time‐lag between the crisis and the response. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

This study introduces three important innovations in the methodology employed to study financial stress: the consideration of the duration of a financial stress episode as a key factor in promoting changes in the provision of public services; the effectiveness of the measures taken; and time‐lag, which takes into account the extended time horizon over which the local authority may implement business‐like and organisational changes.

To date, the techniques used to measure the effects of changes in service delivery methods implemented to alleviate financial stress, have not reflected the true nature of the phenomenon. The results obtained when the new approach proposed in this paper was used to examine Spanish local government responses to financial stress during the period 1999‐2007 confirm that the methodology is well‐judged and effective.

This study reveals that local authorities facing financial stress of two, three or four years’ duration present percentages of decentralisation and contracting‐out that are significantly higher than is the case for local authorities that implement the same processes in response to crises of one year. These findings confirm the need to carry out studies that include the duration of financial crises as a determinant factor in change processes.

El estrés financiero como factor explicativo es una característica recurrente en la investigación sobre la privatización/descentralización de los servicios públicos locales, aunque los estudios empíricos previos no son unánimes en sus conclusiones. Nuestro conocimiento de la influencia de las crisis financieras en estos procesos se podría mejorar mediante el uso de una metodología dinámica que tenga en cuenta los tres aspectos siguientes: la duración de la tensión financiera, el tiempo que transcurre entre la crisis y la respuesta hecha, y la eficacia de esta acción. Al aplicar esta nueva metodología, se demuestra que, hasta la fecha, los métodos utilizados para medir los efectos de los cambios en las formas de prestación de servicios, como un medio de aliviar la tensión financiera, no han reflejado la verdadera naturaleza del fenómeno. Los resultados obtenidos con esta nueva propuesta confirman que la metodología aplicada es la correcta y efectiva en los gobiernos locales españoles para el período 1999‐2007.

This paper analyzes the impact of economic downturns on the revenue and expense sides of city financing for the period 2003 to 2009 using a convenience sample of the audited end of year financial reports for thirty midsized US cities. The analysis focuses on whether and how quickly and how extensively revenue and spending directions from past years are altered by recessions. A seven year series of Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) data serves to explore whether citiesʼ revenues and spending, especially the traditional property tax and core functions such as public safety and infrastructure withstood the brief 2001 and the persistent 2007 recessions? The findings point to consumption (spending) over stability (revenue minus expense) for the recession of 2007, particularly in 2008 and 2009.

Since 1934, the federal government has provided a process for municipalities to declare bankruptcy, and approximately 500 governments have done so. In recent years, an average of less than one city government declares bankruptcy each year. In this article, the authors identify five factors that contribute to financial distress for cities which, if left unattended, can lead to municipal bankruptcy. This discussion is followed by an examination of the events that led to the bankruptcy of the City of Prichard, Alabama, once a prosperous suburb of Mobile. The authors conclude that this municipal bankruptcy occurred, in large part, because Prichard failed to face the factors of financial distress identified by the authors in the years prior to filing for bankruptcy.

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model to assess and rank the financial risk of a municipal government (“municipality”). Financial risk is the likelihood that a municipality will experience financial distress.

Logistic regression is used with financial indicators to assess the level of financial risk. Then, the municipalities are ranked according to their financial risk. As predictor variables for the regression model, indicators are used that were developed by a Pennsylvania state agency to monitor the financial condition of municipalities.

Financial risk is positively associated with debt service, population, tax effort, and public service on roadways, while negatively correlated with intergovernmental revenues, operating position, user charges, capital outlays, fund balances, and tax revenue concentration. The financial risk model is able to correctly classify up to 99 percent of municipalities as either at risk or not at risk of financial distress.

The financial risk model was developed using data from one state in the USA. Further research is needed to test the model’s application to other states and countries.

Financial risk is on the rise since the Great Recession. This study may be used by municipal managers, citizens, creditors, and regulators to assess and rank the financial risk of a municipality.

This study provides a method of classifying municipalities as either at risk or not at risk of financial distress. Previous models of the financial condition of municipalities do not provide a method of assessing and ranking financial risk.