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1 – 6 of 6Fisayo Fagbemi and Adeyemi Fajingbesi
This study investigates the extent to which, and in what ways and capacities, the incidence of adverse economic conditions burdening the masses, on the macro-level, increases the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study investigates the extent to which, and in what ways and capacities, the incidence of adverse economic conditions burdening the masses, on the macro-level, increases the propensity for the generation of political instability/violence.
Design/methodology/approach
Drawing on data from a cross-section of 25 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2005–2019, fixed effects (FE) and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations are used to determine the nature and significance of the independent variable (economic condition), complemented by three control variables, on the dependent WGI-defined variable political stability scored on the basis of a continuum from −2.5 (most unstable) to +2.5 (most stable). For the link between political instability and socioeconomic conditions, the study employs a construct derived from frustration-aggression and relative deprivation theory.
Findings
The study links socioeconomic adversity to political instability in the context of SSA. In addition, larger populated countries exhibit a greater propensity to political instability than smaller populated countries. In contrast, foreign direct investment (FDI) appears to have no real effect, positive or negative, on political stability.
Practical implications
Poor living conditions seem to be strongly associated with a high risk of political violence in SSA. To buoy socioeconomic status, poverty alleviation needs be elevated into a key initiative in the decision-making agenda, at all levels of governance, with real targeted strides achieved in terms of enhancement of the standard of living of the masses. In addition, policies that control population need to be inaugurated hand-in-hand with welfare measures and a more equitable balancing of the distribution of resources in the society.
Originality/value
Given the high regional incidence of civil strife and violence, combined with a dearth of research of an empirical nature on political risk in SSA, this study provides a largely ignored and useful context on SSA apart from studies on the incidence of violence that consider the developing countries as a monolithic whole.
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Fisayo Fagbemi and Richard Angelous Kotey
The paper assesses the role of natural resource rents in Nigeria's economy through the channel of institutional quality.
Abstract
Purpose
The paper assesses the role of natural resource rents in Nigeria's economy through the channel of institutional quality.
Design/methodology/approach
The analysis is done with the use of autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM), Granger causality test and cointegrating regression over the period 1996–2019.
Findings
Findings support the notion that overreliance on natural resources could exacerbate the growing number of dysfunctional economic outcomes in the country. The study confirms that a mix of weak governance quality and natural resource rents could have a negligible effect on economic growth and possible retardation impact on the economy in the long run as well as in the short run. The evidence further reveals that there is unidirectional causality running from the interaction term to growth, suggesting that growth trajectory could be jointly determined by natural resource rents and the quality of institutions.
Originality/value
The divergent arguments associated with the mechanisms of resource curse in each of the resource-rich countries offer ample support for the contention that economic outcomes in resource-abundant states may not be a product of resource windfalls per se, but rather the quality of governance or ownership structure. Hence, the ultimate aim of the analysis is to further understanding on the link between resource rents and growth in Nigeria via governance channel.
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Fisayo Fagbemi, Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun and Kehinde Mary Bello
The article examines the possible long-run and short-run impact of regulatory quality on stock market performance in Nigeria for 1996–2019 period.
Abstract
Purpose
The article examines the possible long-run and short-run impact of regulatory quality on stock market performance in Nigeria for 1996–2019 period.
Design/methodology/approach
The study adopts autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and cointegrating regression techniques.
Findings
Findings reveal that regulatory quality positively and significantly influences the performance of stock market, which strengthens the view that market-enhancing governance can engender an improvement in stock market performance. The study further demonstrates that quality of the regulatory environment is a critical component of market operations, since the improvement of the operation of stock market performance depends on appropriate policy measures, which could be the outcome of improved governance.
Practical implications
It is suggested that, while improving the institutional environment is a challenge to regulators, there is need for strong and effective regulatory mechanism to enhance the development of stock market in the country.
Originality/value
Based on the two competing hypotheses and limited attention, previous studies accorded the role of regulatory quality in the performance of stock market in the context of Nigeria. This study assessed the gap in the literature by taking the task of validating the impact of regulatory quality on stock market development.
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Fisayo Fagbemi and Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun
The main goal of the study is to explore the long run relationship between public debt and domestic investment in West Africa. Essentially, a study of this nature is to proffer…
Abstract
Purpose
The main goal of the study is to explore the long run relationship between public debt and domestic investment in West Africa. Essentially, a study of this nature is to proffer major inroads into addressing low investment levels plaguing the region and securing critical fiscal policy measures.
Design/methodology/approach
The study examines the long-run relationship between public debt and domestic investment in 13 West African countries between 1986 and 2018 with the use of Panel Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Panel Fully Modified Least Squares (FMOLS), and causality test based on Toda and Yamamoto.
Findings
Public debt (% of GDP) and external debt stocks have an insignificant effect on domestic investment in the long run, suggesting the negligible effect of public debt on the level of investments in the region. Further evidence shows that domestic investment Granger causes public debt indicators, implying that there is unidirectional causality. This suggests that any investment-generation policy could engender a rise in public borrowing, although such public loans might not be effective when there is pervasive mismanagement of public funds, as public debts need to be well managed for ensuring improved investment.
Research limitations/implications
The study suggests that maintaining a strong and effective debt-investment nexus requires fiscal consolidation efforts across countries, as such could lead to enhanced institutional capacity and sustainable investment-generation policy.
Originality/value
Since panel regression techniques used by the previous studies (Fixed and Random effects) could be susceptible to possible statistical errors due to endogeneity issue and might not be well suited for explaining long-run effect or capturing the part of investment sustainability, their conclusions could be misleading and remain untenable in West Africa' s context. Hence, the study adopts techniques (DOLS and FMOLS) which could account for endogeneity issue and provide better elucidations for long-term effects.
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Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Monica Adele Orisadare, Fisayo Fagbemi and Sikiru Adetona Adedokun
This study explores the asymmetric linkage between public investment and private sector performance in Nigeria. This is due to the presence of nonlinear structures in the behavior…
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores the asymmetric linkage between public investment and private sector performance in Nigeria. This is due to the presence of nonlinear structures in the behavior of domestic investment series with evidences of structural time breaks, which fall within periods of global financial crises and oil shocks.
Design/methodology/approach
Main data on gross capital formation, gross fixed capital formation, domestic credit to private sector, domestic credit to private sector by banks are used for the study span through 1986 to 2017. Evidence of asymmetry spurs the study to adopt the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag, asymmetric generalized impulse response and variance decomposition and asymmetric granger causality techniques.
Findings
It is shown that positive (negative) investment shocks exhibit a non-negligible and substantial stimulating (dampening) influence on the long-run performance of private sector in the economy. However, there is evidence that negative investment shocks portend a positive influence on the performance of private sector in the short run. This suggests that negative shocks to investment may not dampen the effectiveness of private sector in the short run, and this thus brings to bear the debate on the tenability of public investment as a potent counter cyclical tool in enhancing short-run private sector growth. The nonlinear granger causality also shows a unidirectional nonlinear causality from public investment to private sector performance. However, there is no evidence of bidirectional nonlinear causality.
Originality/value
This study provides quantitative evidence that Nigeria still depends exclusively on public investment, and as an oil-based rentier economy its economic diversification drive still remains bleak.
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