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COVID-19 spread halts developing nations' GDP catch-up

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Amid fears of another COVID-19 wave in high-income nations, developing nations are struggling to control the first wave

High-debt, low-rates trend may trap poorer nations

Location:

INT

The Fed and ECB have confirmed they will keep policy loose through 2019, but this may encourage more debt take-up

Higher interest rates will stress real estate activity

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INTERNATIONAL

House prices have risen by 15% in emerging nations since end-2019 and 26% in advanced nations but price growth will slow

Coal use will be a source of global climate tensions

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INTERNATIONAL

The Glasgow Climate Pact is the first climate deal explicitly to address coal reduction, but that has been overshadowed

Stimulating skills is key to emerging markets growth

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INT

Human capital will become as key to low-to-mid-income countries as it is for high-income ones

Northern Kosovo will remain a flashpoint

Location:

SERBIA/KOSOVO

Western states are seeking to prevent conflict between Kosovo’s government and its Serb minority

The emerging markets recovery will be fragile

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INT

Economic disruption has lasted longer for EMDCs than for advanced economies and China; this will hinder their prospects

Little scope for much-needed rise in budget spending

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INT

High demands on increasingly strained public budgets are fuelling fiscal sustainability fears and bond market sell-offs

Myanmar Rohingya crisis will cause global controversy

Location:

MYANMAR

A flare-up of violence in Myanmar has triggered mass refugee flows and sparked regional and global concern

Risks and opportunities 2020: International

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

Risks centre on trade, cybercrime and the manufacturing weakness spreading to services, but new technologies offer hope