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This study aims to analyze the imbalances in the public finance structure of Pakistan’s economy and highlight the need for comprehensive reforms. Specifically, it aims to contribute to the empirical literature by analyzing the relationship between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies in Pakistan’s economy between 1971 and 2020.

The study develops an index of fiscal vulnerability, an index of financial stress and an index of macroeconomic policies. The fiscal vulnerability index is based on the patterns of fiscal indicators resulting from past trends of the selected variables in Pakistan’s economy. The financial stress in Pakistan is caused from the financial disorders that are acknowledged in the composite index, which is based on variables with the potential to indicate periods of stress stemming from the foreign exchange market, the securities market and the monetary policy components. The macroeconomic policies index is developed to analyze the mechanism through which fiscal vulnerability and financial stress have influenced macroeconomic policies in Pakistan. The causal association between fiscal vulnerability, financial stress and macroeconomic policies is analyzed using the auto-regressive distributive lags approach.

There exists a long-run relationship between the three indices, and a bi-directional causality between fiscal vulnerability and macroeconomic policies.

This study contributes to the development of a fiscal monitoring mechanism, which has the basic purpose of analyzing the refinancing risk of public liabilities. Moreover, it focuses on fiscal vulnerability from a macroeconomic perspective. The study tries to develop a framework to assess fiscal vulnerability in light of “The Risk Octagon” theory, which focuses on three risk components: fiscal variables, macroeconomic-disruption-associated shocks and non-fiscal country-specific variables. The initial contribution of this work to the literature is to develop a framework (a fiscal vulnerability index, financial stress index and macroeconomic policies index) for effective and result-oriented macro-fiscal surveillance. Moreover, empirical literature emphasized and advised developing countries to develop their own capacity mechanisms to assess their fiscal vulnerability in light of the IMF guidelines regarding vulnerability assessments. This study thus attempts to fulfill the said gap identified in literature.

The purpose of the paper is to examine how psychological characteristics predict membership of and transitions between states of higher vs lower financial vulnerability – and vice versa – over time.

This research uses a dynamic latent class model (latent transition analysis) to explore the dynamics of consumers’ financial vulnerability over time using longitudinal data obtained by repeatedly administering a measure of financial vulnerability.

This research finds that consumers in a state of lower vulnerability are “fragile” in having a relatively high likelihood of moving to a state of higher vulnerability, whereas those in a state of higher vulnerability are “entrenched” in having a relatively low likelihood of moving to a state of lower vulnerability. This pattern of results is called the “financial vulnerability trap.” While financial self-efficacy explains state membership, the consideration of future consequences drives state transitions.

Future research could follow consumers over a longer period and consider the role of alternative psychological characteristics besides those examined.

This research provides practitioners with actionable insights regarding the drivers of changes in consumers’ financial vulnerability across time, showing the value of financial self-efficacy and the consideration of future consequences when developing strategies to prevent consumers from sliding from a state of lower to higher financial vulnerability over time.

There is scant research on financial vulnerability. Further, prior research has not examined whether and how consumers’ psychological characteristics help explain their membership of and transitions between states of different levels of financial vulnerability over time.

The authors draw on psychological reactance theory, collective mental programming, psychological profiles and financial vulnerability experiences to assess the possibility that the pandemic may induce transformative changes in households' behavioral intentions related to financial decisions after the pandemic is over.

Using a unique survey data drawn from four different countries located in North America, Europe, Africa and Latin America, the authors show that the stressful conditions that accompanied the pandemic have instigated a state of financial vulnerability and stimulated instinctual defensive mechanisms among consumers.

The study results indicate that households have intentions to make defensive decisions in spending, consumption, planning and investment. Furthermore, the authors report evidence that personal psychological heterogeneity (as an individual factor) and collective mental programming (as a cultural factor) play a significant role in shaping households' postpandemic financial intentions.

The study findings carry important practical implications. For financial institutions, marketers and financial advisors, the authors’ work implies that individual and collective factors affect people's perception and behavioral intentions in response to financial adversities. For social planners and legislators, the authors’ work shows that they should expect not only short-term but also long-term reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most research on the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on households' financial behavior focuses on transitional adjustments made during the pandemic, and little emphasis has been placed on potential postpandemic adjustments. The authors contend that it would be a mistake to analyze the pandemic-induced crisis as a temporary financial hardship.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the financial-economic vulnerability of the public and threatened the household financial stability, especially of the low-income group population, in developing economies such as India. The assessment of household financial vulnerability has gained considerable attention these days, especially in poor and developing countries. This article seeks to assess the level of household financial vulnerability in India, based on a household survey conducted across India.

This paper has proposed a financial vulnerability index (FVI) based on three self-reported parameters: (1) making end meet, (2) perception of income shock and (3) perception of expenditure shock. Subsequently, the impact of various behavioural and socioeconomic factors on the proposed financial vulnerability index has been assessed using fractional probit regression.

The research findings indicate that higher financial knowledge, better money management skills and lower impulsivity in financial behaviour can reduce financial vulnerability. It is suggested that suitable financial literacy programmes be implemented for vulnerable sections of society to enhance their financial knowledge, improve money management skills and manage impulsivity, thereby helping them make informed financial decisions leading to their financial well-being.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the past studies have developed and assessed the financial vulnerability index in India. This study provides relevant recommendations for various financial sector regulators and government institutions in India.

Several developing economies witnessed a large number of systemic financial and currency crises since the 1980s that resulted in severe economic, social, and political problems. The devastating impact of the 1982 and 1994–1995 Mexican crises, the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian crisis, and the ongoing financial crisis of 2008–2009 suggests that maintaining financial sector stability through reduction in vulnerability is highly crucial. The world is now witnessing an unprecedented systemic financial crisis originated from the USA in September 2008 together with a deep worldwide economic recession, particularly in developed countries of Europe and North America. This calls for devising and using on a regular basis an appropriate and effective monitoring and policy formulation system for detecting and addressing vulnerabilities leading to crisis. This chapter proposes a macroprudential/financial soundness monitoring, analysis, and remedial policy formulation system that can be used by most developing countries with or without crisis experience as well as with limited data. It also discusses a process for identifying and compiling a set of leading macroprudential/financial soundness indicators. An empirical illustration using Philippines data is presented. There is an urgent need for increased coordination, collaboration, and partnership among central banks, banking and financial market supervision agencies, and ministries of finance, economic, and planning for proper macroprudential monitoring. A high-level national financial stability committee under the auspices of the head of the state as well as a ‘‘regional financial stability board’’ needs to be established to complement and support the activities of an “international stability board.”

This paper explores how global pandemic crises affect the financial vulnerability of municipalities.

This paper is developed from the relevant literature an analytical framework to examine municipal financial vulnerability before a global pandemic crisis and in its immediate aftermath by mapping and systematizing its dimensions and sources. To illustrate how it can be used and evaluate its robustness and flexibility, such a tool was applied to Portugal and Italy, two countries that particularly suffered from the Covid-19 crisis.

The application of the analytical framework has shown how financially vulnerable municipalities are to global pandemic crises. Financial vulnerability relates to issues ranging from institutional design to internal financial conditions and the perception of the capacity to cope with a crisis. Results further reveal that vulnerability has an inherent contingent nature in time and space and can lead to paradoxical outcomes.

This paper provides a tool that can be useful for both academic and public policy purposes, to further appreciate municipal financial vulnerability, especially during crises.

Municipalities can use the framework to better manage their financial vulnerability, strengthening their anticipatory and copying capacities, while oversight authorities can use it to help municipalities become less financially vulnerable or, at least, more aware of their financial vulnerability.

Municipal financial vulnerability to global shocks has not been explored extensively. Also, the Covid-19 pandemic is different from previous global crises as it affected society overnight with the implementation of lockdown and social distancing measures.

The present study examines the potential relationship between financial capability and household financial vulnerability for a sample of Spanish individuals.

The methodology combines a literature review deepening on the two concepts addressed in this paper – financial vulnerability and financial capability – and an empirical analysis. Based on a sample of 7,811 Spanish individuals taken from the Survey of Financial Competences, different probit regression models are used to test the relationship of key independent variables (namely, financial literacy, financial inclusion, and financial capability) with household financial vulnerability.

Empirical evidence points to the existence of a negative relationship between financial capability and household financial vulnerability. Besides, the variable on financial capability demonstrates, per se, a greater explanatory power than its two components (i.e. objective financial literacy and financial inclusion) separately, particularly in the case of financial literacy.

This paper contributes to the research on household finances along three main dimensions. Firstly, it enhances the research on financial capability by analysing how it relates to consumers' financial vulnerability; an association barely explored by the extant literature. Secondly, it gets closer to the multifaceted concept of financial vulnerability through a wide set of objective and subjective proxy variables. And thirdly, the empirical evidence found leads to proposing some recommendations aimed at improving households' financial capability.

This paper aims to assess to what extent the COVID-19 shock is expected to create a debt crisis in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) through two main questions: what are the main determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability? How vulnerable are EMDEs to the current COVID-19 shock compared to the global financial crisis (GFC)?

In addition to a descriptive analysis of the determinants of EMDEs external vulnerability, this paper designs two sub-indices of overindebtedness and financial fragility that capture EMDEs’ distinct characteristics. The two sub-indices together illustrate the overall external vulnerability to the current shock.

EMDEs are more vulnerable compared to the GFC era. Current debt threats arise mainly from debt architecture and the domination of volatile debt forms – primarily foreign currency-denominated bonds. Excessive fear of debt-deflation spirals after the GFC prompted EMDEs to expand their growth trajectories through a pattern of cheap private lending, loose measures and unmonitored fiscal expansion.

Conclusive post-crisis data are still unavailable.

EMDEs need to balance between temporary accommodative measures and a post-shock policy mix that prevent a deflation spiral without worsening indebtedness and financial fragility. Moreover, financial prudence in face of growing credit demand is crucial, particularly in light of the monetary expansion and injected liquidity.

The indices offer a framework for examining external vulnerability in EMDEs based on theoretical and historical revisions, IMF benchmarks and EMDEs specific debt characteristics. The indices components can be offered for empirical examination in separate future research once conclusive data become available.

This paper aims to study the financial vulnerability of the Spanish households derived from their primary residence mortgage debt payments. This paper shown as the economic and financial crisis triggered after the burst of the housing bubble brought an unemployment shock and a fall in the disposable family income, which alarmingly aggravated the financial vulnerability of the mortgaged households. Consequently, the number of financially vulnerable households almost doubled.

Econometric model of discrete election.

The most vulnerable households – and therefore those with a higher risk of mortgage payment default – are those whose family head is a married and self-employed female. In contrast, in social housing the mortgaged households have been less vulnerable in the context of economic and financial crisis and unlike what would have been initially expected, higher education levels have not acted as a protective factor against households’ financial vulnerability.

There is a great need to understand how the financial health of the mortgaged families that bought their primary residence has deteriorated in a context of significant changes in macroeconomic conditions. This need is specially pressing in a country such as Spain which is one of the OECD’s countries with a higher rate of household property and which shows a sector of highly mortgaged households.

Service captivity is described as the experience of constrained choice whereby a consumer has no power and feels unable to exit a service relationship. This study aims to explore how positive service experiences can contribute to service captivity in the alternative financial services (AFS) sector for consumers experiencing financial vulnerability.

A total of 31 interviews were undertaken with Australian consumers of payday loans and/or consumer leases.

The authors reveal a typology of consumers based on their financial vulnerability and their experience with AFS providers. Then they present three themes relating to how the marketing practices of these providers create a positive service experience, and, in doing so, can contribute to service captivity for consumers experiencing financial vulnerability.

The benefits derived from positive service experiences, including accessible solutions, self-esteem, and a sense of control over their financial situation, contribute to the service captivity of some consumers, rendering alternative avenues less attractive.

AFS providers must ensure a socially responsible approach to their marketing practices to minimize potentially harmful outcomes for consumers. However, a systems-level approach is needed to tackle the wider issue of financial precarity. Policymakers need to address the marketplace gaps, regulatory frameworks and social welfare policies that contribute to both vulnerability and captivity.

This research extends the understanding of service captivity by demonstrating how positive service experiences can perpetuate this situation. Further, specific solutions are proposed at each level of the service system to address service captivity in the AFS sector.