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Article
Publication date: 20 January 2023

Ujjawal Sawarn and Pradyumna Dash

This study aims to examine the uncertainty spillover among eight important asset classes (cryptocurrencies, US stocks, US bonds, US dollar, agriculture, metal, oil and gold) using…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the uncertainty spillover among eight important asset classes (cryptocurrencies, US stocks, US bonds, US dollar, agriculture, metal, oil and gold) using weekly data from 2014 to 2020. This study also examines the US macro uncertainty and US financial stress spillover on these assets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use time–frequency connectedness method to study the uncertainty spillover among the asset classes.

Findings

This study’s findings revealed that the uncertainty spillover is time-varying and peaked during the 2016 oil supply glut and COVID-19 pandemic. US stocks are the highest transmitter of uncertainty to all other assets, followed by the US dollar and oil. US stocks (US dollar and oil) transmit uncertainty in long (short) term. Furthermore, US macro uncertainty is the net transmitter of uncertainty to the US stocks, industrial metals and oil markets. In contrast, US financial stress is the net transmitter of uncertainty to the US bonds, cryptocurrencies, the US dollar and gold markets. US financial stress (US macro uncertainty) has long (short)-term effects on asset price volatility.

Originality/value

This study complements the studies on volatility spillover among the important asset classes. This study also includes recently financialized asset classes such as cryptocurrencies, agricultural and industrial commodities. This study examines the macro uncertainty and financial stress spillover on these assets.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 40 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 June 2022

Hedi Ben Haddad, Sohale Altamimi, Imed Mezghani and Imed Medhioub

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic fluctuations and forecast economic trends.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts an extension of the Jurado et al. (2015) procedure by combining financial uncertainty factors with their net spillover effects on GDP and inflation to construct an aggregate financial uncertainty index. The authors consider 13 monthly financial variables for Saudi Arabia from January 2010 to June 2021.

Findings

The empirical results show that the constructed financial uncertainty estimates are good leading indicators of economic activity. The robustness analysis suggests that the authors’ proposed financial uncertainty estimators outperform the alternative estimates used by other existing approaches to estimate the financial conditions index.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This study extends the empirical literature, from which the authors propose a novel conceptual framework for building a financial uncertainty index by combining the approach of Jurado et al. (2015) and the time-varying connectedness network approach proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020)

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 October 2021

Muhammad Saeed Meo, Kiran Jameel, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous Chowdhury and Sajid Ali

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the research is to analyze the impact of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty on Islamic financial markets. For representing Islamic financial markets four different Islamic indices (DJ Islamic index, DJ Islamic Asia–Pacific index, DJ Islamic-Europe index and DJ Islamic-US) are taken.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs quantile-on-quantile regression approach to see the overall dependence structure of variables based on quarterly data ranging from 1996Q1 to 2020Q4. This technique considers how quantiles of world uncertainty and pandemic uncertainty asymmetrically affect the quantiles of Islamic stocks by giving an appropriate framework to apprehend the overall dependence structure.

Findings

The findings of the study confirm a strong negative impact of world uncertainty and world pandemic uncertainty on regional Islamic stock indices but the strength of the relationship varies according to economic conditions and across the regions. However, the world pandemic effect remains the same and does not change. Conversely, pandemic uncertainty has a larger effect on Islamic indices as compared to world uncertainty.

Practical implications

Our findings have significant implications for investors and policymakers to take proper steps before any uncertainty arise. A coalition of the central bank, government officials and investment bank regulators would be needed to tackle this challenge of uncertainty.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, none of the current works has considered the asymmetric impact of world and pandemic uncertainties on Islamic stock markets at both the bottom and upper quantiles of the distribution of data.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. 39 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 July 2023

Shabeer Khan, Mohd Ziaur Rehman, Mohammad Rahim Shahzad, Naimat U Khan and Lutfi Abdul Razak

There has been a burgeoning interest in exploring the impact of uncertainty factors on share returns. However, studies on the influence of global financial uncertainties on…

Abstract

Purpose

There has been a burgeoning interest in exploring the impact of uncertainty factors on share returns. However, studies on the influence of global financial uncertainties on emerging market sectoral indices are scarce. Thus, there is a need to have a thorough investigation of the connection between global financial uncertainties and emerging market sectoral indices. To fill this gap, using the theoretical framework of international portfolio diversification (IPD) and utilizing data from 2008 to 2021, this study examines the spillover connection between global uncertainty indices (GUIs) and leading sectoral indices of 28 emerging markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ the quantile spillover-based connectedness approach and minimum connectedness portfolio approach to explore the dynamic connectedness among sectoral indices and global uncertainty indices (GUIs) as well as portfolio implication.

Findings

The study found high connectedness among all indices, especially at higher and lower quantiles. Among GUIs, the authors find that stock market volatility (VIX) and oil volatility index (OVX) are strongly interconnected with all leading emerging markets' sectoral indices. Among sectoral indices, the linkage between the financial (F-Index), information technology (IT-Index), and consumer discretionary (CD-Index) sectors shows moderate interconnectedness. In contrast, the communication services (CS-Index) sector has low interconnectedness with the system. In terms of spillover effects, the authors find EVZ, OVX, and the IT sectors to be net recipients for the entire period. The authors also explored portfolio diversification benefits by employing a minimum connectedness portfolio approach. The cumulative returns' findings show a slight decline in the portfolio's value after 2010; during 2012, the pattern remained stable; from 2014 to 2020, the portfolio performed negatively, that is, underperformance due to different events in that period, including COVID-19. The Consumer Discretionary sector is found to be significant because of having the largest weight, 51%, in the portfolio during the study period.

Practical implications

The study suggests that investors should invest in the communication services sector as it is the least connected. However, the connectedness increases during COVID-19, which implies that it may be difficult for investors to benefit from IPD in a crisis period. Hence, to obtain the benefits from IPD, the evidence suggests that investors need to consider Consumer Discretionary sector while considering assets for investment.

Originality/value

The study's uniqueness is that the authors have investigated spillover between GUIs and 28 emerging markets sectoral indices by employing a quantile spillover-based connectedness approach and minimum connectedness portfolio approach with a special focus on portfolio implication.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 January 2024

Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun, Suhaib Anagreh, Mosab I. Tabash and Xuan Vinh Vo

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the return and volatility transmission among economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), their interaction (EPGR) and five tradable precious metals: gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium.

Design/methodology/approach

Applying time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) frequency-based connectedness approach to a data set spanning from January 1997 to February 2023, the study analyzes return and volatility connectedness separately, providing insights into how the data, in return and volatility forms, differ across time and frequency.

Findings

The results of the return connectedness show that gold, palladium and silver are affected more by EPU in the short term, while all precious metals are influenced by GPR in the short term. EPGR exhibits strong contributions to the system due to its elevated levels of policy uncertainty and extreme global risks. Palladium shows the highest reaction to EPGR, while silver shows the lowest. Return spillovers are generally time-varying and spike during critical global events. The volatility connectedness is long-term driven, suggesting that uncertainty and risk factors influence market participants’ long-term expectations. Notable peaks in total connectedness occurred during the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, with the latter being the highest.

Originality/value

Using the recently updated news-based uncertainty indicators, the study examines the time and frequency connectedness between key uncertainty measures and precious metals in their returns and volatility forms using the TVP-VAR frequency-based connectedness approach.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 June 2023

Muhammad Aftab, Maham Naeem, Muhammad Tahir and Izlin Ismail

Exchange rate volatility is an important factor affecting investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine the impact of uncertainties, in terms of changes in economic…

Abstract

Purpose

Exchange rate volatility is an important factor affecting investors and policymakers. This study aims to examine the impact of uncertainties, in terms of changes in economic policy, monetary policy and global financial markets, on exchange rate volatility.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the GARCH (1,1) univariate model to calculate exchange rate volatility. Economic and monetary policy uncertainties are measured using news-based indices, while global financial market volatility is measured using the implied volatility index. Panel autoregressive distributed lag modeling is used to analyze the impact of uncertainty on exchange rate volatility in the short and long run. The sample consists of 26 developed and emerging markets from 2005 to 2020.

Findings

The study finds that economic policy uncertainty significantly increases exchange rate volatility. Similarly, global financial market uncertainty leads to increased exchange rate volatility. The effect of US monetary policy uncertainty reduces exchange rate volatility.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature on exchange rate fluctuations by examining the impact of uncertainties on exchange rate volatility. The study uses novel news-based indices for measuring economic and monetary policy uncertainties and includes a broader sample of emerging and advanced markets. The findings have important implications for investors and policymakers.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 January 2024

Mohit Kumar and P. Krishna Prasanna

To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.

Abstract

Purpose

To investigate the role of domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in driving the corporate bond yields in emerging markets.

Design/methodology/approach

The study utilizes monthly data from January 2008 to June 2023 from the selected emerging economies. The data analysis is conducted using univariate, bivariate and multivariate statistical techniques. The study includes bond market liquidity and global volatility (VIX) as control variables.

Findings

Domestic EPU has a significant role in driving corporate bond yields in these markets. The study finds weak evidence to support the role of the USA EPU in influencing corporate bond yields in emerging economies. Domestic EPU holds more weight and influence than the EPU originating from the United States of America.

Research limitations/implications

The findings provide useful insights to policymakers about the potential impact of policy uncertainty on corporate bond yields and enable them to make informed decisions regarding economic policies that maintains financial stability. Understanding the relationship between EPU and corporate bond yields enables investors to optimize their investment decisions in emerging market economies, opens the scope for further research on the interaction between EPU and volatility and other attributes of fixed income markets.

Originality/value

Focuses specifically on the emerging market economies in Asia, providing an in-depth analysis of the dynamics and challenges faced by these countries, Explores the influence of both domestic and the USA EPU on corporate bond yields in emerging markets, offering valuable insights into the transmission channels and impact of EPU from various sources.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2023

Oumayma Gharbi, Yousra Trichilli and Mouna Boujelbéne

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at…

Abstract

Purpose

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at risk of the US Fintech stock market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the methodologies proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the wavelet approach.

Findings

The wavelet coherence results show that during the COVID-19 period, there was a strong co-movement among value at risk and each selected variables in the medium-run and the long-run scales. Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) method proved that the total connectedness index raised significantly during the COVID-19 period. Moreover, the overconfidence bias and the financial stress index are the net transmitters, while the value at risk and herding behavior variables are the net receivers.

Research limitations/implications

This study offers some important implications for investors and policymakers to explain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risk of Fintech industry.

Practical implications

The study findings might be useful for investors to better understand the time–frequency connectedness and the volatility spillover effects in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Future research may deal with investors' ability of constructing portfolios with another alternative index like cryptocurrencies which seems to be a safer investment.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the continuous wavelet decomposition technique and spillover volatility to examine the connectedness between investor behavioral biases, uncertainty factors, and Value at Risk of US Fintech stock markets, while taking into account the recent COVID-19 pandemic.

Details

China Finance Review International, vol. 13 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-1398

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 December 2022

Rocco Caferra and Pasquale Marcello Falcone

This paper sets out to investigate investors' sustainable preferences under different market conditions. Specifically, the authors examine the existence of a positive sustainable…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper sets out to investigate investors' sustainable preferences under different market conditions. Specifically, the authors examine the existence of a positive sustainable asset pricing gap, and whether it is influenced by the socioeconomic and financial sentiments. The increase of uncertainty rises investors' skepticism whether sustainable companies are under-performing the traditional counterparts, causing larger increasing gap. Conversely, if sustainable assets are overperforming, the increase of market uncertainty raises investors' sustainable preferences.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the existence of a positive sustainable asset pricing gap, and whether it is influenced by the socioeconomic and financial sentiments. Through a quantile regression, the authors remark the variability of sustainable preferences where market participants, although recognizing the present and future value added of sustainable investing, also show skepticism (i.e. asymmetric tail behavior). However, the analysis of the total change of sustainable investments returns over time demonstrates the emergence of positive viewpoints incentivized by economic and market uncertainty.

Findings

The market-driven social responsibility exalts the positive insights regarding the future of sustainable developments. As the authors discuss along the paper, investors are gaining awareness about the environmental and social goals pursued by socially responsible companies. Hence, the authors consider how economic instability might stimulate the assessment of the social and environmental impact of the unsustainable production systems, switching investments toward virtuous sustainable companies. This could generate a series of positive externalities that might improve the welfare conditions of the whole society.

Originality/value

The authors conduct an original empirical exercise, combining different techniques (i.e. quantile regressions and wavelet analysis). To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper trying to evidence a systematic connection between market uncertainty and sustainable preferences accounting for different market states (thanks to quantile regressions).

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 50 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2023

Haobo Zou, Mansoora Ahmed, Quratulain Tariq and Komal Akram Khan

The real estate markets may be significantly influenced by the uncertainty in global economic policy. This paper aims to evaluate the time-varying connectedness between global…

Abstract

Purpose

The real estate markets may be significantly influenced by the uncertainty in global economic policy. This paper aims to evaluate the time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and regional real estate markets to understand how regional real estate markets and uncertainty in global economic policy are related throughout time.

Design/methodology/approach

The current study includes the monthly data from April 2007 to August 2022 of major regions (i.e. Asia Pacific, Europe, Africa, North America and Latin America). Moreover, the authors use the time-varying parameter vector auto-regression (TVP-VAR) approach for the analysis.

Findings

The finding revealed a significant level of connectedness among global economic policy uncertainty and selected regional real estate markets. The result highlights more than 80% connectivity between the two variables, which makes the current study valuable. Furthermore, results determine Africa and North America are the shock transmitters; thus, they are considered safe-haven for investors to invest in these markets.

Originality/value

The main novelty is that this research highlights the time-varying connectedness between global economic policy uncertainty and five regional real estate markets (Africa, Asian Pacific, Europe, Latin America and North America) using TVP-VAR. Furthermore, the authors used the standard and poor daily real estate investment trust (REIT) indices for the selected REIT markets. Finally, this research suggests practical implications for real estate investors, property developers, stakeholders, policymakers and managers to revise their current policies to maintain the real estate market stability during economic and political uncertainty or in other uncertain situations.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

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