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1 – 10 of over 15000Brahim Gaies and Najeh Chaâbane
This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and…
Abstract
Purpose
This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.
Design/methodology/approach
This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.
Findings
This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.
Originality/value
This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.
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Kenshiro Ninomiya and Masaaki Tokuda
The Japanese economy experienced prosperity during the bubble economy and has suffered from a prolonged recession since the bubble economy collapsed. This paper examines how the…
Abstract
The Japanese economy experienced prosperity during the bubble economy and has suffered from a prolonged recession since the bubble economy collapsed. This paper examines how the interest-bearing debt burden, structural change, and instability of confidence affect dynamic systems. Moreover, it examines these factors in the Japanese economy by applying a recursive vector autoregression analysis. This paper emphasizes the interest-bearing debt burden, the economic structure resulting from the instability of confidence, and the instability of confidence resulting from debt burden play important roles in the instability of the economy. As a result, Japan’s economy was determined to be relatively stable from 1980 to 1996, but was unstable, thereafter.
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The purpose of this study is to investigate why “financial fragility” carries different definitions in the economic literature. This is a useful task as the detection of “financial…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to investigate why “financial fragility” carries different definitions in the economic literature. This is a useful task as the detection of “financial fragility” depends, in part, upon how one defines it. According to Post Keynesian economists, financial fragility is a process that can culminate in financial instability (an event). For mainstream or New Keynesian economists, financial fragility has been traditionally defined as a state in which a shock can trigger instability. More recently, however, mainstream economists have recast their definition as a particular form of financial instability – an event. Each definition of financial fragility is intimately linked to the theoretical foundation upon which it rests. This carries important implications for the ability of policymakers to assess and manage the health of an economy.
Design/methodology/approach
The different approaches to the definition and detection of financial fragility are compared using corresponding sets of indicators. Indicators for the Post Keynesian approach are derived from a simple cash‐flow accounting framework, in the spirit of Hyman Minsky. The economy selected for study is New Zealand.
Findings
According to the Post Keynesian approach, New Zealand has been in a financially fragile state for over three years, a period during which policymakers could have been creating ways to make New Zealand more resilient to the onset of instability. According to the New Keynesian approach, New Zealand may just now be experiencing fragility, giving policymakers much less time to react.
Originality/value
This study traces the definitions of financial fragility to their underlying theoretical frameworks and draws the implications for the methods of detecting financial fragility.
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The purpose of this paper is to explore the association between tax evasion and financial instability. The discussion also examines the effects of tax evasion for financial…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore the association between tax evasion and financial instability. The discussion also examines the effects of tax evasion for financial instability.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper is an exploratory study on the effect of tax evasion on financial instability
Findings
The paper shows that tax evasion can reduce the tax revenue available to governments to manage the economy and can weaken the government’s ability to promote stability in financial systems, whereas on the contrary, taxpayers who evade taxes feel they can use the evaded tax money to rather improve their own financial stability.
Originality/value
This paper presents the first attempt to carefully examine the association between tax evasion and financial instability.
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Mei-Se Chien and Nur Setyowati
This paper aims to investigate how different uncertainty shocks affect international housing prices.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate how different uncertainty shocks affect international housing prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors set up a model of housing price instability with four uncertainty variables and apply the panel generalized method of moments method and quantile regression to estimate the linear and non-linear linkages among the variables based on data of 56 countries from 2001Q1 to 2018Q2.
Findings
Some empirical findings are as follows. Higher macroeconomic uncertainty and global economic policy risk increase housing price instability, whereas greater financial uncertainty and geopolitical risk present reverse effect. Four uncertainty variables are good signals for housing price changes in Asia, and geopolitical risk takes leading role in Europe. Macroeconomic uncertainty positively impacts housing price instability only at a low or middle level in all regions, as financial uncertainty, global economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk effects in all regions are smaller at the middle or high level of housing price instability; this confirms the existence of non-linear correlation between each variable.
Originality/value
The findings help investors and policymakers gain a better notion of housing price instability and control into uncertainty signal that could cause housing price instability crash.
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This chapter considers financial instability as a phenomenon endogenous to the functioning of capitalism. Consequently, it seeks to identify the main sources and different forms…
Abstract
This chapter considers financial instability as a phenomenon endogenous to the functioning of capitalism. Consequently, it seeks to identify the main sources and different forms of the latter in financialised capitalism. According to Keynes, capital assets prices are conceived as the expression of financial conventions. It is, therefore, important to distinguish between the returns expected by company directors, bankers, holders of equity titles, risk-takers and, in contrast, risk-averse holders of debt securities. Minsky enriches the analysis by attributing a decisive role to the leverage effect, at the origin of an accumulation of financial weaknesses in the balance sheets of non-financial agents during the expansion phases preceding financial crises. Regulation theory leads to the introduction of a distinction between the financial accelerator and the leverage effect. The first establishes a procyclical relationship at the macroeconomic level between the price of capital assets and the debt ratio of non-financial agents; the second acts at the microeconomic level through shareholder corporate governance, which determines the institutional conditions inciting firm directors to integrate shareholder expectations into their return forecasts. The empirical analysis identifies three forms of financial instability in financialised capitalism: the long-term financial cycle governed by the debt ratio of non-financial agents; the business cycle governed by the impact of stock prices on investment; and the short-term or even very short-term expected return revisions of financial actors. Its originality is to show that these three forms of instability acquire different characteristics depending on the national economy considered.
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The equation of unified knowledge says that S = f (A,P) which means that the practical solution to a given problem is a function of the existing, empirical, actual realities and…
Abstract
The equation of unified knowledge says that S = f (A,P) which means that the practical solution to a given problem is a function of the existing, empirical, actual realities and the future, potential, best possible conditions of general stable equilibrium which both pure and practical reason, exhaustive in the Kantian sense, show as being within the realm of potential realities beyond any doubt. The first classical revolution in economic thinking, included in factor “P” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of a model of ideal conditions of stable equilibrium but neglected the full consideration of the existing, actual conditions. That is the main reason why, in the end, it failed. The second modern revolution, included in factor “A” of the equation, conceived the economic and financial problems in terms of the existing, actual conditions, usually in disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium (in case of stagnation) and neglected the sense of right direction expressed in factor “P” or the realization of general, stable equilibrium. That is the main reason why the modern revolution failed in the past and is failing in front of our eyes in the present. The equation of unified knowledge, perceived as a sui generis synthesis between classical and modern thinking has been applied rigorously and systematically in writing the enclosed American‐British economic, monetary, financial and social stabilization plans. In the final analysis, a new economic philosophy, based on a synthesis between classical and modern thinking, called here the new economics of unified knowledge, is applied to solve the malaise of the twentieth century which resulted from a confusion between thinking in terms of stable equilibrium on the one hand and disequilibrium or unstable equilibrium on the other.
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Sephooko I. Motelle and Nicholas Biekpe
Asymmetric information impedes the efficiency of financial intermediation by widening the gap between lending and deposit rates. The cost of information gathering is high and…
Abstract
Purpose
Asymmetric information impedes the efficiency of financial intermediation by widening the gap between lending and deposit rates. The cost of information gathering is high and often translates into high borrowing costs. Consequently, high borrowing costs may make it hard for borrowers to repay loans and increase the volume of non-performing loans – a recipe for financial instability. This study first compares the application of the simple GARCH (1,1) and BGARCH (1,1,1) models in the estimation of macroeconomic volatility and finds that the latter is more suitable for this purpose. Moreover, the choice of BGARCH (1,1,1) over the simple GARCH (1,1) implies different outcomes for Granger causality tests. This finding implies that the BGARCH (1,1,1) model minimises loss of important information when estimating macroeconomic volatility in developing countries. Second, the study uses bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the hypothesis that there is a causal relationship between financial instability and the financial intermediation spread in Southern African Customs Union (SACU). The findings support this hypothesis and underscore the importance of implementing sound macroeconomic policies for high and stable growth as well as effective monetary policy to attain and maintain low and stable prices in order to narrow the financial intermediation spread in SACU. The paper aims to discuss these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses bootstrap panel Granger causality to test the hypothesis that there is a causal relationship between financial instability and the financial intermediation spread in SACU.
Findings
The findings support this hypothesis and underscore the importance of implementing sound macroeconomic policies for high and stable growth as well as effective monetary policy to attain and maintain low and stable prices in order to narrow the financial intermediation spread in SACU.
Originality/value
Application of panel bootstrap Granger causality test to test for a casual relationship between financial intermediation spread and financial stability in the context of SACU.
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Rakesh Kumar and Raj S. Dhankar
The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run spillover effect of international financial instability on emerging South Asian stock markets. The paper also…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run spillover effect of international financial instability on emerging South Asian stock markets. The paper also investigates the financial integration regionally.
Design/methodology/approach
Granger causality test is used for short-run causal relations. Since results of preliminary test highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, GARCH class models with extreme shocks in international financial market are utilized to test the long-run spillover impact on stock returns.
Findings
Results indicate significant short- and long-run spillover impacts of international financial instability on the stock returns. They highlight the significant co-integration of South Asian stock markets with the international market. Significant correlations in stock returns and volatility reveal the degree of regional integration to be high between India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Research limitations/implications
Business, political and market conditions of South Asian stock markets are fundamentally different from each other. These economies were liberalized at different time, which in turn may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets and regionally alike.
Practical implications
Financial liberalization has linked the South Asian stock markets to the rest of the world. Stock prices move in the same line with the emergence of global expected and unexpected economic shocks. The benefits that arise from the diversification of funds will be eradicated in the long run. Investors with long investment horizons will not actually benefit from portfolio diversification in South Asian equity markets. The Bangladesh stock market does not respond to volatility in international market in the short run and may be a good destination for short-term investment.
Originality/value
Pioneer efforts are made by utilizing a novel approach with the use of net volatility change in world financial instability for measuring the short- and long-run impacts. Given the emergence of South Asian stock markets, new insights into their vulnerability to world financial shocks provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification.
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Zuhairan Yunmi Yunan, Majed Alharthi and Saeed Sazzad Jeris
This study aims to investigate the relationship between political instability and the performance of Islamic banks in emerging countries.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the relationship between political instability and the performance of Islamic banks in emerging countries.
Design/methodology/approach
For a data sample of 93 Islamic banks in 20 emerging countries during the period from 2011 to 2016, the authors identify indicators that matter most for the activities of Islamic banks.
Findings
The study finds that a stable government and law and order are positively correlated with the health of Islamic financial institutions. On the other hand, corruption and military involvement in politics can create an unstable environment for businesses, leading to uncertainty and risk. The study also reveals that Islamic banks operating in regions or communities with lower risk of socio-economic conditions tend to exhibit higher levels of profitability.
Originality/value
Overall, the study provides valuable insights into the impact of political instability on Islamic banks in emerging countries.
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