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This case follows the performance review and financial-statement-forecasting decisions of a Value Line analyst for the retail building-supply industry in October 2002. The case contrasts the strong operating performance of Home Depot with the strong stock-market performance of Lowe's. Students examine a financial ratio analysis for Home Depot that acts as a template to generate a comparable ratio analysis for Lowe's. The student ratio analysis is designed to build intuition with respect to interpreting individual ratios as well as ratio interrelationships (e.g., the DuPont framework). The historical-performance comparison suggests that investors are skeptical of the ability of Home Depot to maintain its performance trajectory, yet they project sustained improvements for Lowe's. Students are invited to scrutinize the analyst's five-year income-statement and asset-side balance sheet forecast for Home Depot. The case expressly focuses on the asset side of the balance sheet as a preview for other cases using free-cash-flow forecasting. The Home Depot forecast exercise exposes students to the mechanics of financial-statement modeling and sensitivity analysis, which they can use in building their own forecast for Lowe's. Finally, the strong-growth assumptions for Home Depot relative to the modest-growth forecast for the industry suggest that the company can be expected to capture massive and perhaps unreasonable market share in the near term. The exercise provides a striking example of the importance of comparing bottom-up business forecasting with top-down industry forecasts.

Bicycle industry, emerging markets, competitor analysis, financial forecasting.

This case can be used as a teaching tool in the following courses: MBA/post-graduate programs in management in management accounting, management control systems and strategic cost management; executive training programs for middle and senior level employees; and under-graduate/post-graduate programs in entrepreneurship. It can be used to explain and test the concepts of SWOT analysis, Porter's five forces model and PEST analysis. It introduces the technique of breakeven analysis and its relationship with operating leverage. Moreover, it demonstrates the application and analyses of the Du Pont equation.

Hero Cycles Ltd was established by the four Munjal brothers in pre-independence India. It started off as a business of bicycle spare parts, but quickly expanded in post-independence India, with Ludhiana as its base. The company later joined with foreign firms like Honda Motors, Japan to become the largest manufacturers of bicycles in the world. It dominates domestic markets with a market share of around 40 percent. Ananth Munjal, a learned, ambitious and cautious individual, is the next generation, ready to take over the reins of the company. Being someone who believes in learning from past mistakes, he forms a team to critically examine the decisions made by his predecessors. This team is also directed to utilize forecasting techniques for determining the expected profitability given the existing state of affairs that prevail. Additionally, Du Pont analysis is to be performed for studying the efficiency of the company on the facets of operating performance, asset turnover and associated financial leverage. Also, Ananth's risk-averse nature compels him to study the past with regard to the relationship between operating leverage, breakeven sales and corresponding margin of safety. Furthermore, he wishes to inspect the historical cost structure of the firm, and its influence on company performance.

These include the use of: SWOT analysis to identify the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to a company; PEST analysis to identify the political, economic, social and technological factors that affect the operations of a company; Porter's five forces model to analyse an industry. The case also helps students: by identifying fixed costs and variable costs that are a part of operating expenditure of a business; in the use of forecasting the financials of a company for the sake of predicting the future outcomes of certain business strategies; by application of Du Pont analysis to examine the efficiency of the various processes and strategies; in determining quantitative terms like contribution margin, breakeven sales, operating leverage, margin of safety, their significance, and the relationship between these terms.

Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email support@emeraldinsight.com to request teaching notes.

In July 2001, a new CEO joins this small manufacturer of CD-ROMs and DVDs to discover that the firm is in the midst of a financial crisis, induced by rapid growth. The CEO asks an analyst for help with five tasks: (1) review historical performance of the firm; (2) forecast financing requirements for the next two years; (3) exercise the forecasting model to identify “key driver” assumptions; (4) estimate Star River's weighted average cost of capital; and (5) analyze a proposed investment in a packaging machine. The analyst must offer insights and recommendations based on the work. The aim of the case is to exercise students’ abilities in financial forecasting and analysis and in the analysis of capital projects. Generally, the case offers a good omnibus review of foundational tools and concepts.

This case study will allow students to understand and analyse the process for conducting equity valuation by building a three-statement financial model, to understand and apply the workings of discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation methodology and its components, to apply the concepts related to the calculation of the weighted average cost of capital in the determination of discounting rate, to understand the terminal value calculation and assumptions thereof and to analyse the intrinsic valuation for the target company using the traditional multi-stage DCF model for investment decision-making.

In July 2019, Kapil Agarwal, an equity analyst operating out of Mumbai, India, was carefully looking over the financials of Asian Paints, a leading paints company in India. As an equity analyst, Kapil was constantly on the lookout for fundamentally strong but undervalued companies that could create long-term wealth for his equity fund. To decide upon the right valuation of Asian Paints, Kapil conducted fundamental analysis using the DCF method on the basis of available financial information. This case study puts students in an investment analyst role wherein they forecast financial statements and conduct DCF valuation for Asian Paints to discover potentially undervalued stocks for investment decision-making.

This case study is designed for use in an undergraduate or postgraduate programme in business management, particularly in a course on business valuation or investment management or security analysis.

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.

In September 1990, the financial controller of this Italian subsidiary of a large pharmaceutical company must analyze the implications of two different strategies for introducing a new product into the Italian market: co-marketing distribution, in which Glaxo would permit another company to market the same product but under a different brand name; and direct sales, under which Glaxo's own sales force would be the sole channel of distribution. The tasks for the student are to scrutinize and correct financial forecasts contained in the case and then value the alternative cash flow streams. The purpose of the case is to exercise students' forecasting and valuation skills and to illustrate the application of discounted cash flow analysis to the choice of marketing policies.

The case provides an opportunity to the students to learn some of the analytical processes in making a credit decision, including interpretation of financial ratios for credit analysis, forecasting a stress scenario, analysing cash flow adequacy, assessment of financial flexibility and, finally, recommend a credit decision.

The case discusses the analytical challenges facing a bank credit officer while assessing the credit quality of Kwality Ltd., an India-based dairy product manufacturer. Kwality Ltd. had undertaken a significant capacity expansion and business transformation to strengthen its market position in value-added dairy products business and improve its profit margins. The capacity expansion had recently been completed and the management, credit rating agency, equity analysts and investors appear to be optimistic regarding the company’s prospects. However, the capital investment had been almost entirely debt-funded and large long-term debt repayments would have become due shortly. The company had also built up large trade receivables. The banker had to assess if Kwality would be in a position to repay its debt and should his bank increase working capital disbursement to the company.

Complexity: Academic level. Applicability: MBA, Executive MBA.

Teaching Notes are available for educators only.

CSS1: Accounting and Finance.

Monsanto is facing an uncertain near-term financial outlook, and this case challenges students to generate an operating forecast (income statement and balance sheet operating accounts). The case naturally lends itself to sensitivity analysis related to sales growth assumptions. Suitable for MBA and undergraduate learners, it covers the basics of forecasting without introducing the complexities associated with financing. A teaching note is available.

A new CEO from outside the firm takes over following the sudden death of the former CEO. Included in the new CEO's inbox are pressing decisions concerning (1) the firm's financing needs, (2) capital equipment, and (3) a general assessment of the firm's financial performance. The task for the student is to analyze these issues and recommend action.

In January 1990, the chief executive of this small yarn-production company must resolve a surprising cash shortage. The tasks for the student are to evaluate the causes of this shortage (using a complete base case forecast given in the case) and then to assess the usefulness of various possible remedies suggested by company managers. In essence, the company is unable to liquidate a seasonal working-capital loan for the requisite 30 days each year. This situation arises from two classic causes: secular growth of the company, and declining profitability. Possible remedies include reducing finished-goods inventory through more efficient transportation and warehousing, reducing credit terms to customers, just-in-time (JIT) raw-materials supply, and switching from seasonal to level production. This case provides a thorough exercise of working-capital analysis and concepts.

This case helps students to analyze non-financial and financial aspects of a company and observe quantitative and qualitative aspects of decisions and decide whether to invest or not and give suggestions to sell, buy or hold stocks. The case is expected to help the students understand and analyze the following points: the overall performance of the company and industry, how fundamental and technical analysis is applied to reach investment decisions, the areas where Jet Airways occupies the top position compared to peer group (competitor analysis), the company’s financial position and valuation with the help of tools and techniques and suggestions and observations to shareholders whether to buy/sell or hold shares.

This case can be used for MBA (Finance) students on equity research and valuation. Students are introduced to the fundamental procedures of equity research and analysis – evaluating sector desirability, financial modeling, equity valuation methods. To enhance research skills, students are required to acquire basic knowledge on macro and micro economic indicators. This case helps students to analyze non financial and financial aspects of a company and observe quantitative and qualitative aspects of decisions and decide whether to invest or not and give suggestions to sell, buy or hold stocks.

Mr Rahul, a consultant in Karvey brokerage house was about to leave the office on the evening of March 24, 2015 when the phone rang. It was Mr Srirag, one of his clients and close friends who was passionate about investing in shares. Mr Rahul with his two decades of experience in monitoring and advising various investment plans has been continuously advising Srirag on different investments in shares. Srirag said “Rahul! You know that I bought many shares in Jet Airways. While studying the annual reports of Jet Airways 2014-2015 about its business profits and losses, I came across a January to March, 2013 business quarter analysis report that wrote about Jet Airways facing a net loss of 4.95 billion rupees due to over debt burden and interest costs. It also stated that the company sold a 24 per cent stake in 2013 to Etihad for 332$ million which is an Abu Dhabi based airline. The news said that the deal would help the company overcome financial challenges, raise cash, cut costs and gain access to the global flight network. I am worried about whether this deal would allow the company to continue its operations from India or not. I am also concerned about the downfall of Kingfisher, a major setback in the aviation industry in India that owes 8,000 crores to its employees, banks, airports, oil companies. I am worried that either my investment in Jet Airways might bring huge losses or the partnership with Etihad airways would result in the reduction of costs and due to joint sales efforts, sharing resources and network integration thereby leading to a valuable share price. Since your guidance has helped in many issues, I would like to know the present condition and future prospectus prevailing in Jet Airways”. With a lot of ambiguity in his mind, he asked Rahul to recommend if he should hold or sell the shares in Jet Airways.

The case is expected to help the students understand and analyze the following points: the overall performance of the company and industry, how fundamental and technical analysis is applied to reach investment decisions, the areas where Jet Airways occupies the top position compared to peer group (Competitor analysis), the company’s financial position and valuation with the help of tools and techniques and suggestions and observations to shareholders on whether to buy/sell or hold shares.

The link to the following videos to be sent to participants in advance to help them prepare for the class. www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3XJXTmILyk, Equity Research Presentation: Coca-Cola, www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5pEK_2uItg Write Equity Research Report, format, process, www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMLJccgiSTk Equity Valuation and Analysis-Part I.

CSS 1: Accounting and Finance.