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Article
Publication date: 6 January 2012

Tiiu Paas and Andres Kuusk

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of variability of empirical results of several financial contagion studies, taking into account the role of financial markets…

1331

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of variability of empirical results of several financial contagion studies, taking into account the role of financial markets, data sets and the applied definitions and methods that may explain the variability of empirical evidence.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used qualitative analysis of published research materials about previous financial crises and analyzed the variability of empirical results of around 75 studies of financial contagion, taking into account the particularities of financial markets, data sets and tests methods.

Findings

The results of the analysis show that empirical studies provide heterogeneous results depending on applied definitions and methods, as well as chosen crises, destination countries and financial indices. Summing up all the relevant empirical findings the results supporting the contagion hypothesis are in clear dominance, but taking into account differences in definitions and testing methodologies the research did not reveal clear results as to which evidence dominates or should dominate.

Research limitations/implications

The authors conclude that solely qualitative analysis of published research materials about previous financial crises does not give sufficient information to elaborate proper management measures to prevent serious consequences of financial crises. The authors propose that it is possible to obtain a more adequate picture of financial contagion by using a meta‐analysis, which the authors are planning to do in future studies.

Practical implications

The paper provides information about some reasons that explain the variability of the results that are presented in the empirical studies about financial contagion. This information can be used for elaborating policy proposals and regulations that can help alleviate possible negative consequences of financial contagion. The paper shows the way for future articles summarising financial contagion.

Originality/value

The study sums up previous findings on the field of financial contagion and shows the insufficiency of the traditional literature review to accomplish that task.

Details

Baltic Journal of Management, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5265

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 December 2020

Haytem Troug and Matt Murray

The purpose of this paper then, is to add to the existing literature on financial contagion. While a vast amount of the debate has been made using data from the late 1990s, this…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper then, is to add to the existing literature on financial contagion. While a vast amount of the debate has been made using data from the late 1990s, this paper differentiates itself by analysing more current data, centred around the most recent global financial crisis, with specific focus on the stock markets of Hong Kong and Tokyo.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing Pearson and Spearman correlation measures, the dynamic relationship of the two markets is determined over tranquil and crisis periods, as specified by an Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector AutoRegression (MSBVAR) model.

Findings

The authors find evidence in support of the existence of financial contagion (defined as an increase in correlation during a crisis period) for all frequencies of data analysed. This contagion is greatest when examining lower-frequency data. Additionally, there is also weaker evidence in some data sub-samples to support “herding” behaviour, whereby higher market correlations persist, following a crisis period.

Research limitations/implications

The intention of this paper was not to analyse the cause or transmission mechanism of contagion between financial markets. Therefore future studies could extend the methodology used in this paper by including exogenous macroeconomic factors in the MSBVAR model.

Originality/value

The results of this paper serve to explain why the debate of the persistence and in fact existence of financial contagion remains alive. The authors have shown that the frequency of a time series dataset has a significant impact on the level of observed correlation and thus observation of financial contagion.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 48 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2013

Lukasz Prorokowski

The current paper contributes to the vigorous debate about policies and regulations that would shield financial markets' participants from future events of the financial turmoil…

4279

Abstract

Purpose

The current paper contributes to the vigorous debate about policies and regulations that would shield financial markets' participants from future events of the financial turmoil. In doing so, the paper aims to broaden the picture of the financial crisis contagion and set it against the background of contemporary European markets. The main purpose of this paper is to present novel aspects of the financial crisis contagion, hence clarifying the contagion theory that still remains confusing and ambiguous for both the academics and financial markets' practitioners.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper builds on a simulation model for the financial crisis contagion that is rooted in the qualitative query and backed by semi‐structured interviews with financial markets' participants who possess extensive knowledge about the functioning of European markets and their interconnectedness. With this in mind, the current paper adopts an international investor's perspective on implications that stem from the linkages between European financial markets, flawed regulations and the absence of cross‐border monitoring of the financial crisis contagion.

Findings

The findings constitute practical insights into the issues of the financial crisis contagion, hence providing useful advice on policies and regulations that could manage the cross‐market transmission of the financial turmoil and shield financial markets' participants from the episodes of financial crises in the future. The findings reported in this paper also present novel aspects of the contagion processes across the contemporary and systemically important financial markets in Europe.

Practical implications

The practical implications of the current paper gain in significance as the nascent financial crisis sparked off vigorous debate about the need for implementing regulations that would prevent financial markets' participants from the future episodes of global financial crises. At this point, the findings reported in the current paper might be of interest for policy makers and markets' authorities. In addition, the paper attempts to deliver findings that practitioners associated with the contemporary European financial markets would benefit from by understanding the linkages between these markets and ways the financial contagion spreads. Previously, little knowledge of ways financial crises spread across markets caused substantial losses that were incurred by investors.

Originality/value

The current paper addresses the issues of the financial crisis contagion that belong to the group of the most commonly referenced yet least understood notions in finance. Furthermore, the paper focuses on addressing the recently exposed fragility of financial markets' surveillance and regulations. In doing so, the paper employs a pioneering approach to a simulation of the financial crisis contagion by embarking on a qualitative query rather than empirical data. Henceforth, the limitations of the empirical simulations – experienced in the past studies devoted to investigation of the financial crisis contagion – were ameliorated and the findings presented in the paper became of practical use for the markets' practitioners and policymakers.

Article
Publication date: 5 February 2018

Neha Seth and Laxmidhar Panda

The purpose of this paper is to obtain a comprehensive structure of past empirical studies on financial contagion which can provide the present growth and future scope of research…

1100

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to obtain a comprehensive structure of past empirical studies on financial contagion which can provide the present growth and future scope of research work on the field of contagion analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

Present study identifies 151 empirical studies on financial contagion and summarises all the studies on the basis of tools and methodology used, year of the studies, origin of the studies, sample period and sample countries taken, studies undertaken on the basis of different crisis period and markets considered and finally sources of the studies.

Findings

The results of the analysis show that the empirical studies on contagion increased continuously over the past five years. Higher order test of contagion with more number of sample countries may provide more accurate picture on financial contagion.

Originality/value

This paper collects, classifies and summarises past empirical studies on financial contagion and provides valuable conclusion on present growth and future scope of studies on financial contagion. The information given in this paper can be helpful for future researchers and academicians on this particular field; the summary of the conclusion (from past reviews) may be helpful for the policy makers for asset allocation and risk management.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 10 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 October 2020

Jungmu Kim and Yuen Jung Park

This study aims to investigate the existence of contagion between liquid and illiquid assets in the credit default swap (CDS) market around the recent financial crisis. The…

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the existence of contagion between liquid and illiquid assets in the credit default swap (CDS) market around the recent financial crisis. The authors perform analyses based on vector autoregression model and the dynamic conditional correlation model. The estimation of vector autoregression models reveals that changes in liquid CDS (LCDS) spreads lead to changes in illiquid CDS spreads at least one week ahead during the financial crisis period, whereas the leading direction is reversed during the post-crisis period. Moreover, the results are robust after controlling for structural variables which are proven as determinants of CDS spreads and are empirically supported. This study interprets that information was incorporated first into the LCDSs because of the flight-to-liquidity during the recent crisis period but there is a default contagion effect by reflecting illiquidity-induced credit risk after the crisis. Finally, the dynamic conditional correlation analysis also confirms the main results.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 28 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 July 2014

Wasim Ahmad, N.R. Bhanumurthy and Sanjay Sehgal

This paper aims to examine the contagion effects of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) and US stock markets on seven Eurozone and six non-Eurozone stock markets…

1244

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the contagion effects of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy (GIPSI) and US stock markets on seven Eurozone and six non-Eurozone stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model popularly known as DCC-GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) model given by Engle (2002) is applied to estimate the DCCs across sample markets.

Findings

Analyzing the Eurozone crisis period, the empirical results suggest that among GIPSI stock markets, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland appear to be most contagious for Eurozone and non-Eurozone markets. The study finds that France, Belgium, Austria and Germany in Eurozone and UK, Sweden and Denmark in non-Eurozone are strongly hit by the contagion shock.

Practical implications

The findings of the study have significant implications for the concerned regulatory authorities, as it may provide an important direction for further policy research with regard to financial integration in the European Union (EU). From global investors’ perspective, the EU-based diversification strategies seem to be inefficient especially during Eurozone crisis.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the issue of financial contagion of Eurozone crisis for a large basket of stock markets of European countries comprising seven Eurozone and six non-Eurozone markets for the period 2009-2012. The study uses the Markov regime switching model to identify crisis period and utilizes the DCC estimates of DCC-GARCH to examine the patterns of financial contagion. The finding of this study is quite interesting and is different in several ways than existing studies in the literature.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 31 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2018

Dogus Emin

This paper aims to test whether the latest global financial crisis propagated contagiously from the USA to the rest of the world.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to test whether the latest global financial crisis propagated contagiously from the USA to the rest of the world.

Design/methodology/approach

If the reason of the propagation of a crisis is a normal time interdependence with the crisis origin country due to real linkages, the spread of crisis can be limited by implementing well-defined preventive policies. On the other hand, if a crisis propagates because of the speculative attacks or irrational behaviors, the “national policymakers will face difficulties in protecting their markets from such a crisis” (Kleimeier et al., 2003, p. 2). Therefore, separation of contagion and interdependence may provide crucial insights for policymakers to implement appropriate policies to prevent and/or stop the financial crisis. Hence, this paper compares the heteroscedasticity-corrected conditional correlations and dynamic conditional correlations in the tranquil and shock periods.

Findings

The findings were quite straightforward and consistent for both Forbes and Rigobon heteroscedasticity correction technique and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model. The Forbes and Rigobon technique failed to reject the null of no contagion for 25 countries in our data sample, while the DCC model failed to reject the null of no contagion for 21 countries. While heteroscedasticity-corrected correlation technique confirmed the presence of a contagion for six countries, the DCC technique confirmed the presence of a contagion for ten countries.

Originality/value

This study particularly investigates whether the subprime mortgage crisis spilled over contagiously to the rest of the world. To investigate whether there is a significant increase in the cross-market correlations between the crisis origin country, the USA and the rest of the world markets during the latest financial crisis, both heteroscedasticity-corrected correlation technique and DCC model are used.Therefore, this study possibly contributes well to the literature using a large country set and conducting the analysis from different angles for important properties.

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2013

George Milunovich and Stefan Trück

The purpose of this paper is to investigate contagion between real estate investment trusts (REITs) within and across three geographical regions: North America, Europe and…

1874

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate contagion between real estate investment trusts (REITs) within and across three geographical regions: North America, Europe and Asia‐Pacific. The paper also examines excess comovement between the considered national REIT markets on the one hand, and broad equity indices on the other. In particular, the authors are interested in contagion between the considered markets during the 2007‐2009 GFC period in comparison to the entire 2004‐2011 sample period.

Design/methodology/approach

Using an international factor pricing framework similar to Bekaert, Harvey and Ng, the paper defines contagion as excess comovement between two financial markets, after removing the effects of the underlying economic fundamentals, i.e. risk factors, and time‐changing volatility. Controlling for economic factors is important for distinguishing between pure contagion and information spillovers, which may transmit through existing economic channels. The authors then analyse excess correlations between the derived standardized residuals, for REITS and equity markets in order to investigate excess comovement between the indices during the whole sample and GFC period.

Findings

The paper finds no evidence of excess comovement between the considered REIT and equity indices during non‐crisis sample intervals. However, the paper finds contagion between several national REITs and regional or global equity markets during the GFC period. The paper reports statistically significant excess correlations between national REITs and regional and world real estate markets during the entire sample period, while there is only limited evidence to suggest that the correlation amongst REIT markets has increased during the GFC period. The paper concludes that a similar degree of dependence persisted among national REIT markets over the crisis and non‐crisis sample periods for most markets.

Originality/value

Despite the ongoing debate on contagion in financial markets, there is only a small body of literature investigating contagion specifically for property or real estate markets. This is even more surprising, since the GFC originated from a subprime mortgage crisis and was, therefore, heavily related to real estate. The paper extends the literature by testing for contagion between REITs considering eleven national markets across three geographical regions. In contrast, the existing literature is typically constrained to a significantly smaller number of markets. The paper also explicitly takes into account the impact of the recent GFC, and tests for contagion over this period.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 December 2005

Bang Nam Jeon

This paper provides evidence of financial linkages across countries as a channel of contagion of currency crises in the case of the 1997 Asian crisis using high-frequency data…

Abstract

This paper provides evidence of financial linkages across countries as a channel of contagion of currency crises in the case of the 1997 Asian crisis using high-frequency data, focusing on the hardest hit countries in the region: Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Korea. Stock markets in the region were found to play an important role in transmitting initial and local shocks beyond its country of origin to other emerging economies during the 1997 crisis. Stock market linkages seem to have contributed importantly to the quick and wide-scale contagion of the ensuing exchange rate crisis across countries in the 1997 Asian crisis episode.

Details

Asia Pacific Financial Markets in Comparative Perspective: Issues and Implications for the 21st Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-258-0

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2019

Carolina Macagnani dos Santos, Luiz Eduardo Gaio, Tabajara Pimenta Junior and Eduardo Garbes Cicconi

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the relationship of interdependence and contagion between BRICS countries and emerging non-BRICS countries is similar to that…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the relationship of interdependence and contagion between BRICS countries and emerging non-BRICS countries is similar to that observed between developed countries and emerging BRICS countries.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors analyzed 15 markets: 5 BRICS, 5 developed (USA, Japan, Germany, England and France) and 5 emerging markets (Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran and Poland). Based on the time series of returns of the main stock indexes of each country, referring to the period from 2008 to 2018, the authors applied Granger causality tests, vector auto-regression and the dynamic conditional correlation-GARCH model.

Findings

The results led to the rejection of the main hypothesis and showed adherence to the behaviors predicted in the literature for the relations between the groups of markets.

Originality/value

This paper, besides analyzing the interdependence between markets in times of crisis, analyzes the effect of contagion between developed and emerging markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 14 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

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