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Article
Publication date: 23 October 2019

Senthil Arasu Balasubramanian, Radhakrishna G.S., Sridevi P. and Thamaraiselvan Natarajan

This paper aims to develop a corporate financial distress model for Indian listed companies using financial and non-financial parameters by using a conditional logit regression…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop a corporate financial distress model for Indian listed companies using financial and non-financial parameters by using a conditional logit regression technique.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a sample of 96 companies, of which 48 were declared sick between 2014 and 2016. The sample was divided into a training sample and a testing sample. The variables for the study included nine financial variables and four non-financial variables. The models were developed using financial variables alone as well as combining financial and non-financial variables. The performance of the test sample was measured with confusion matrix, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F-measure, Types 1 and 2 error.

Findings

The results show that models with financial variables had a prediction accuracy of 85.19 and 86.11 per cent, whereas models with a combination of financial and non-financial variables predict with comparatively better accuracy of 89.81 and 91.67 per cent. Net asset value, long-term debt–equity ratio, return on investment, retention ratio, age, promoters holdings pledged and institutional holdings are the critical financial and non-financial predictors of financial distress.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the financial distress prediction literature in different ways. First, there have been, until now, few studies in the area of financial distress prediction in the Indian context. Second, business failure studies in the past have used only financial variables. The authors have combined financial and non-financial variables in their model to increase predictive ability. Thirdly, in most earlier studies, variable institutional holdings were found to affect financial distress negatively. In contrast, the authors found this parameter to be positively significant to the financial distress of the company. Finally, there have hitherto been few studies that have used promoter holdings pledged (PHP) or pledge ratio. The authors found this variable to influence business failure positively.

Details

International Journal of Law and Management, vol. 61 no. 3/4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-243X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 25 October 2021

Yasmine M. Ragab and Mohamed A. Saleh

This study examines the effect of non-financial variables related to governance on the accuracy of financial distress prediction among Egyptian listed small and medium-sized…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the effect of non-financial variables related to governance on the accuracy of financial distress prediction among Egyptian listed small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), by using the logistic regression technique.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used a sample of 24 Egyptian-listed SMEs in each year, totaling 120 firm observations, of which 25 were classified distressed and 95 of them non-distressed between 2014 and 2018. The variables for the study included five financial variables and thirteen non-financial variables related to governance. The models were developed using financial variables alone as well as combining financial and non-financial variables related to governance.

Findings

The results showed that the model with financial variables had a prediction accuracy of 91.7% , whereas models with a combination of financial and non-financial variables related to governance predict with comparatively better accuracy of 92.7 and 93.6% .

Research limitations/implications

Although the results seem to be conclusive, it could be noted that the non-distressed sample was not paired with the distressed sample. Other studies showed that paired samples increase the financial distress prediction rate. Furthermore, due to the small sample size, this study was unable to create a hold-out sub-sample for the accuracy test.

Practical implications

The proposed distress prediction model for SMEs is effective for stakeholders, including banks and other financial institutions, in the assessment of the credit risk of SMEs. Using such a model, they could better identify SMEs with a higher risk of failure in their lending decisions. Moreover, SME managers' could be interested in using such models as a tool for planning corrective action, in addition to planning and controlling current operations to avoid financial failure in the future.

Originality/value

This study contributes to financial distress prediction literature in different ways. First, few studies were conducted in the area of financial distress among SMEs. Second, neither of these studies was conducted within the Egyptian context, nor any of them had used non-financial variables related to governance in the prediction of financial distress among SMEs.

Article
Publication date: 27 September 2022

Sanjay Sehgal, Vibhuti Vasishth and Tarunika Jain Agrawal

This study attempts to identify fundamental determinants of bond ratings for non-financial and financial firms. Further the study aims to develop a parsimonious bond rating model…

Abstract

Purpose

This study attempts to identify fundamental determinants of bond ratings for non-financial and financial firms. Further the study aims to develop a parsimonious bond rating model and compare its efficacy across statistical and range of machine learning methods in the Indian context. The study is motivated by the insufficiency of prior work in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors identify the critical determinants of non-financial and financial firms using multinomial logistic regression. Various machine learning and statistical methods are employed to identify the optimal bond rating prediction model. The data cover 8,346 bond issues from 2009 to 2019.

Findings

The authors find that industry concentration, sales, operating leverage, operating efficiency, profitability, solvency, strategic ownership, age, firm size and firm value play an important role in rating non-financial firms. Operating efficiency, profitability, strategic ownership and size are also relevant for financial firms besides additional determinants related to the capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, earnings quality and liquidity (CAMEL) approach. The authors find that random forest outperforms logit and other machine learning methods with an accuracy rate of 92 and 91% for non-financial and financial firms.

Practical implications

The study identifies important determinants of bond ratings for both non-financial and financial firms. The study interalia finds that the random forest technique is the most appropriate method for bond ratings predictions in India.

Social implications

Better bond ratings may mitigate corporate defaults.

Originality/value

Unlike prior literature, the study identifies determinants of bond ratings for both non-financial and financial firms. The study also experiments with modern machine learning techniques besides the traditional statistical approach for model building in case of relatively under researched market.

Article
Publication date: 11 June 2020

Hamid Zarei, Hassan Yazdifar, Mohsen Dahmarde Ghaleno and Ramin azhmaneh

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the extent to which a model based on financial and non-financial variables predicts auditors' decisions to issue qualified audit reports…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the extent to which a model based on financial and non-financial variables predicts auditors' decisions to issue qualified audit reports in the case of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE).

Design/methodology/approach

The authors utilized data from the financial statements of 96 Iranian firms as the sample over a period of five years (2012–2016). A total of 480 observations were analysed using a probit model through 11 primary financial ratios accompanying non-financial variables, including the type of audit firm, auditor turnover and corporate performance, which affect the issuance of audit reports.

Findings

The results demonstrated high explanatory power of financial ratios and type of audit firm (the national audit organization vs other local audit firms) in explaining qualifications through audit reports. The predictive accuracy of the estimated model is evaluated using a regression model for the probabilities of qualified and clean opinions. The model is reliable, with 72.9% accuracy in classifying the total sample correctly to explain changes in the auditor's opinion.

Research limitations/implications

This study contains some limitations. First, it is likely that similar researches in developed countries set a large sample (e.g. over 1,000 firms) including more years, but the authors cannot follow such a trend due to data access restrictions. Second, banks and financial institutions, investment and holding firms are removed from the sample, because their financial structure is diverse. The third limitation of the study represents the different economic and cultural conditions of Iran compared to other countries. Future studies could focus on internal control material weaknesses or earnings management to predict audit opinion in emerging economies including Iran.

Practical implications

The paper has practical implications and can assist auditors in identifying factors motivating audit report qualifications, mainly in emerging economies.

Originality/value

The paper contributes to auditing research, since very little is known about the determinants of audit opinion in emerging markets including Iran; it also constitutes an addition to previous knowledge about audit opinion in the context of TSE. The paper is one of the rare studies predicting auditor opinions using both financial variables and non-financial metrics.

Details

Journal of Accounting in Emerging Economies, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-1168

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2012

Maria‐Jesús Mures‐Quintana and Ana García‐Gallego

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the development of a business failure prediction model on a sample of small and medium‐sized firms with head offices located in the region…

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the development of a business failure prediction model on a sample of small and medium‐sized firms with head offices located in the region of Castilla y León (Spain), in order to prove the significance of non‐financial information on the prediction of business failure.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to reach the authors' aim, one of the most used predictive statistical methods in this field (logistic regression) is applied, in which the authors consider financial ratios and non‐financial information as potential variables to predict failure. But before developing the respective models, in order to reduce the number of variables, a principal components analysis (PCA) is first applied. Then, the achieved results with this analysis are used in the prediction step, so as to estimate the models.

Findings

The results of the predictive method show that non‐financial information, which becomes significant in the developed models, helps financial ratios to improve the ability to predict failure, so any business failure model should also consider both types of information to be accurate.

Originality/value

Most of the developed business failure prediction models have used a paired sample with the same number of failed and non‐failed firms, which has the drawback of not being representative of the population from which it is chosen. In order to obtain a representative sample, a random sampling method is applied, on the basis of the population size and composition. The selected sample assures that parameter estimates are not inconsistent and biased, as the statistical methods assume.

Details

International Journal of Organizational Analysis, vol. 20 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1934-8835

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 20 August 2018

Sihem Khemakhem and Younes Boujelbene

Data mining for predicting credit risk is a beneficial tool for financial institutions to evaluate the financial health of companies. However, the ubiquity of selecting parameters…

2263

Abstract

Purpose

Data mining for predicting credit risk is a beneficial tool for financial institutions to evaluate the financial health of companies. However, the ubiquity of selecting parameters and the presence of unbalanced data sets is a very typical problem of this technique. This study aims to provide a new method for evaluating credit risk, taking into account not only financial and non-financial variables, but also the class imbalance.

Design/methodology/approach

The most significant financial and non-financial variables were determined to build a credit scoring model and identify the creditworthiness of companies. Moreover, the Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique was used to solve the problem of class imbalance and improve the performance of the classifier. The artificial neural networks and decision trees were designed to predict default risk.

Findings

Results showed that profitability ratios, repayment capacity, solvency, duration of a credit report, guarantees, size of the company, loan number, ownership structure and the corporate banking relationship duration turned out to be the key factors in predicting default. Also, both algorithms were found to be highly sensitive to class imbalance. However, with balanced data, the decision trees displayed higher predictive accuracy for the assessment of credit risk than artificial neural networks.

Originality/value

Classification results depend on the appropriateness of data characteristics and the appropriate analysis algorithm for data sets. The selection of financial and non-financial variables, as well as the resolution of class imbalance allows companies to assess their credit risk successfully.

Details

Review of Accounting and Finance, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1475-7702

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 April 2016

Jaruwan Songsang, Kamonchanok Suthiwartnarueput and Pongsa Pornchaiwiseskul

The purposes of this paper are 1) to develop model of long term financial health for logistics companies in Thailand 2) to identify factors that determine long term financial

Abstract

The purposes of this paper are 1) to develop model of long term financial health for logistics companies in Thailand 2) to identify factors that determine long term financial stability. Many researchers currently provide factors affecting financial health. Most factors refer to financial ratios, not many non-financial ratios such as age and size have been mentioned. This paper considers both financial and non-financial ratios that affect financial performance of Logistics companies in Thailand. The study has covered some interesting non-financial ratios such as Nationality of Shareholders, type of network in Logistics Company, growth rate (consisted of sales growth rate/profit growth rate/asset growth rate / Liability growth rate) and variable of growth rates. The target group is 110 logistics companies in Thailand enlisted from Department of International Trade Promotion Ministry of Commerce, Royal Thai Government. The group is divided into three categories according to financial health of company; Healthy financial, Unhealthy (Distress) and normal situation. The Multidiscriminant Analysis (MDA) is applied to analyze the differentiations among the three categories. Significant variables from MDA will be used as the independent variables for Multimonial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLRA) to identify factors that determine long terms financial stability. This paper find CF/D, RE/TA, BE/TL, Size, Age, Type of network, Nationality of Shareholders and Number of Shareholders are significant factors determine long term financial stability of Logistics company in Thailand.

Details

Journal of International Logistics and Trade, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1738-2122

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 31 May 2013

Angela Hsiang‐Ling Chen, Xiaoli Wang, Jason Zu‐Hsu Lee and Chun‐Yuan Fu

This paper aims to explore the relationship of various financial and non‐financial factors to corporate value and how these factors can be used for the purpose of firm valuation…

446

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the relationship of various financial and non‐financial factors to corporate value and how these factors can be used for the purpose of firm valuation. The focus is placed on a developing high‐tech industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors collect and compare data from companies within the time window of 1997 through 2010. The techniques of stepwise regression and back‐propagation neural network (BPNN) are applied to analyze this data, where the variables of operating profit margin, ROE, ROA, net income ratio, Tobin's Q and stock price are chosen to indicate firm value.

Findings

Each firm value variable appears to have a different set of estimator variables consisting of financial and non‐financial factors. The estimator variable in the set that has a high influence relative to the others tends to be financial factor. However, certain non‐financial factors appear to be considered as an estimator variable for different firm value variables more often than financial factors such as employee productivity, wealth created per employee, revenue growth rate, management expense per employee, R&D expense to management expense ratio, and R&D expenditure to total assets ratio. Further, the incorporation of BPNN shows an improvement of the result of the regression method in terms of overall estimation error, especially for operating profit margin.

Originality/value

The authors' investigation highlights the importance of the use of non‐financial factors for firm valuation in developing biotech industries. The result can be helpful for investors who seek to examine information variables and indicators for the opportunity presented by the above industries. In addition, the significant estimation improvement by incorporating the BNPP method into the commonly used regression method suggests the beneficial use of BPNN in refining the traditional methods in the field.

Details

Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Administration, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-4323

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 January 2022

Dorina Nicoleta Popa, Victoria Bogdan, Claudia Diana Sabau Popa, Marioara Belenesi and Alina Badulescu

The purpose of this work is twofold. First, looks to identify the main homogenous groups of companies after environmental, social, economic and governance (ESEG) disclosures, non-

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this work is twofold. First, looks to identify the main homogenous groups of companies after environmental, social, economic and governance (ESEG) disclosures, non-financial statement and earnings per share (EPS), and second investigates the connection between variables.

Design/methodology/approach

Using financial and non-financial information from annual reports of private listed companies, the authors performed two-step cluster analysis (TSCA) in the first stage of the research, followed by parametric, nonparametric correlation analysis, as well as regression analysis based on panel data, in the second stage.

Findings

Results of TSCA revealed a cluster of companies with good financial and non-financial outcomes and a cluster of companies with poor performance. The performance dynamics showed a slight improvement during the period for few companies and composition analysis of clusters by industries through Kruskal–Wallis test highlighted differences between clusters, only for 2017. The main findings confirm a direct, although weak in intensity but statistically significant correlation between ESEG disclosure index, its sustainability component and financial performance (FP), valid for the entire period. Also, the results showed a direct link of low intensity to average, but statistically significant between the non-financial statement and EPS, valid only for 2017 and 2018.

Research limitations/implications

The results indicate mixed findings which invites further in-depth research. Limits of the study can be found in selected indicators and the short period of time analyzed. However, the practical implications are worth considering from the perspective of finding new managerial tools that can better shape the relationship between ESEG disclosures and FP.

Practical implications

ESEG Dindx can be an instrument for managers that can optimize the link between the FP of companies and its sustainable development.

Social implications

ESEG Dindx measures the disclosure degree of ESEG information by the companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE). The main findings of the work confirm a direct, although weak in intensity but statistically significant correlation between ESEG disclosure index, its sustainability component and FP, valid for the entire period.

Originality/value

This study adds value to the existing literature by the proposed research framework, design of ESEG Dindx and the way correlations between variables were investigated.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 51 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 1999

Gary Kleinman and Asokan Anandarajan

Accounting literature is replete with quantitative models that use financial ratios to identify the probability of a going concern qualification. These studies, however, ignore…

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Abstract

Accounting literature is replete with quantitative models that use financial ratios to identify the probability of a going concern qualification. These studies, however, ignore qualitative cues that auditors use to identify going concern problems and mitigating factors (sound financial plans etc.) that auditors take into account in their choice of report. Tests whether, in the presence of financial distress, non‐financial cues play an important role in auditors’ choice. Results indicate that non‐financial variables can be used to discriminate between the auditor’s decision to issue the going concern qualified versus the clean report. Helps company management understand how auditors evaluate their clients and the importance of the qualitative criteria used in their evaluation. Can be used to predict the most probable outcome prior to the external audit. Second, facilitates understanding of the non‐financial red flags that could trigger the going concern report. Third, can be used to analyze potential acquisition targets, and, if the acquisition target is still otherwise desirable, be used in pricing negotiations. Fourth, can be applied to aspects of the firm’s own division’s operations in order to enable the internal audit department to better allocate its own investigational and problem‐solving resources. Finally, the fact that qualitative factors have power in predicting the going concern modified report suggests that company decision makers can evaluate others even if the auditor for political or other reasons has chosen not to render a modified report.

Details

Managerial Auditing Journal, vol. 14 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0268-6902

Keywords

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