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Article
Publication date: 21 July 2023

Brahim Gaies and Najeh Chaâbane

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study adopts a new macro-perspective to explore the complex and dynamic links between financial instability and the Euro-American green equity market. Its primary focus and novelty is to shed light on the non-linear and asymmetric characteristics of dependence, causality, and contagion within various time and frequency domains. Specifically, the authors scrutinize how financial instability in the U.S. and EU interacts with their respective green stock markets, while also examining the cross-impact on each other's green equity markets. The analysis is carried out over short-, medium- and long-term horizons and under different market conditions, ranging from bearish and normal to bullish.

Design/methodology/approach

This study breaks new ground by employing a model-free and non-parametric approach to examine the relationship between the instability of the global financial system and the green equity market performance in the U.S. and EU. This study's methodology offers new insights into the time- and frequency-varying relationship, using wavelet coherence supplemented with quantile causality and quantile-on-quantile regression analyses. This advanced approach unveils non-linear and asymmetric causal links and characterizes their signs, effectively distinguishing between bearish, normal, and bullish market conditions, as well as short-, medium- and long-term horizons.

Findings

This study's findings reveal that financial instability has a strong negative impact on the green stock market over the medium to long term, in bullish market conditions and in times of economic and extra-economic turbulence. This implies that green stocks cannot be an effective hedge against systemic financial risk during periods of turbulence and euphoria. Moreover, the authors demonstrate that U.S. financial instability not only affects the U.S. green equity market, but also has significant spillover effects on the EU market and vice versa, indicating the existence of a Euro-American contagion mechanism. Interestingly, this study's results also reveal a positive correlation between financial instability and green equity market performance under normal market conditions, suggesting a possible feedback loop effect.

Originality/value

This study represents pioneering work in exploring the non-linear and asymmetric connections between financial instability and the Euro-American stock markets. Notably, it discerns how these interactions vary over the short, medium, and long term and under different market conditions, including bearish, normal, and bullish states. Understanding these characteristics is instrumental in shaping effective policies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including access to clean, affordable energy (SDG 7), and to preserve the stability of the international financial system.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 2016

Scott Pirie and Ronald King To Chan

This study aims to find out how institutional investors use momentum in making investment decisions, and whether their actions are consistent with the Financial Instability

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to find out how institutional investors use momentum in making investment decisions, and whether their actions are consistent with the Financial Instability Hypothesis of Hyman Minsky.

Design/methodology/approach

The study discusses the findings of interviews with 25 professional investors from the Hong Kong offices of five global financial institutions. All of the participants have several years of practical experience in global and regional markets.

Findings

Nearly all the managers interviewed said they use momentum in making investment decisions, and they do this in ways that are consistent with the Financial Instability Hypothesis, in which markets alternate between stable and unstable states. The participants are aware they may contribute to this, but they cannot avoid doing it because of short-term constraints in the present financial system.

Originality/value

This study adds to our knowledge of how professional investors use momentum in their investment strategies. It complements findings of quantitative studies that show momentum strategies have been profitable in many market settings. It also adds evidence that supports the Financial Instability Hypothesis.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 August 2017

Kenshiro Ninomiya and Masaaki Tokuda

The Japanese economy experienced prosperity during the bubble economy and has suffered from a prolonged recession since the bubble economy collapsed. This paper examines how the…

Abstract

The Japanese economy experienced prosperity during the bubble economy and has suffered from a prolonged recession since the bubble economy collapsed. This paper examines how the interest-bearing debt burden, structural change, and instability of confidence affect dynamic systems. Moreover, it examines these factors in the Japanese economy by applying a recursive vector autoregression analysis. This paper emphasizes the interest-bearing debt burden, the economic structure resulting from the instability of confidence, and the instability of confidence resulting from debt burden play important roles in the instability of the economy. As a result, Japan’s economy was determined to be relatively stable from 1980 to 1996, but was unstable, thereafter.

Details

Return of Marxian Macro-Dynamics in East Asia
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-477-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 19 October 2016

Alan Walks and Dylan Simone

The precise relationships between neoliberalization, financialization, and rising risk are still being debated in the literature. This paper examines, and challenges, the Financial

Abstract

The precise relationships between neoliberalization, financialization, and rising risk are still being debated in the literature. This paper examines, and challenges, the Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) developed by Hyman Minsky and his adherents. In this perspective, the level of financial risk builds over time as participants orient their behavior in relation to assessments of past levels of risk performance, leading them to overly optimistic valuation estimates and increasingly risky behavior with each subsequent cycle. However, there are problems with this approach, and many questions remain, including how participants modify their exposure to risk over time, how risk is scaled, and who benefits from changes in exposure to risk. This paper examines such questions and proposes an alternate perspective on financial instability and risk, in light of the history of risk management within Canada’s housing finance sector. The rise of financialization in Canada has been accompanied by shifts in the sectoral and scalar locus of risk within the housing sector, from the federal state, to lower levels of government, third-sector organizations, and finally, private households. In each case, the transfer of risk has occurred as participants in each stage sought to reduce their own risk exposure in light of realistic and even pessimistic (not optimistic) expectations deriving from past exposure, contradicting basic assumptions of Minsky’s FIH. This is the process that has driven the neoliberalization of housing finance in Canada, characterized by the socialization of lender risk while households increasingly take on the financial and social risks relating to shelter.

Details

Risking Capitalism
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78635-235-4

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 May 2019

Zoya A. Pilipenko

The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the role of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) in ensuring monetary and financial

Abstract

The chapter contains a methodology for formalized evaluation of the role of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia) in ensuring monetary and financial sustainability with the help of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and its inflation target regime. The significance of the research of the Bank of Russia operations to ensure financial sustainability is due to a number of circumstances: the uniqueness of the Bank of Russia that appeared only 27 years ago and experienced several devastating events related to the 1998 financial crisis, the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, and the stagnation of the Russian economy in 2014–2016, as well as high volatility of world prices for Russian commodity exports and the latest contra-Russian sanctions that significantly affected the volatility of the Russian ruble. Taking into account all the above, the issue of the Bank of Russia’s effective activities in the long run is aggravated by the fact that there are still more open questions than proven relationships of causes and effects regarding the potential of specific monetary policy instruments in the context of low-growth and high-volatility environment. The modeling of the Bank of Russia strategic and operational targets has been based on the parameters’ dependencies presented by the money (credit) multiplier in the interpretation of G. Schinasi (2006) and on the instability of stable economy hypothesis of H. Minsky (2008). As a result, there have been established the marginal levels of definite indicators of the banking system performance that could allow the Bank of Russia to ensure financial sustainability in the low-growth and high-volatility environment.

Book part
Publication date: 25 October 2021

Renaud du Tertre

This chapter considers financial instability as a phenomenon endogenous to the functioning of capitalism. Consequently, it seeks to identify the main sources and different forms…

Abstract

This chapter considers financial instability as a phenomenon endogenous to the functioning of capitalism. Consequently, it seeks to identify the main sources and different forms of the latter in financialised capitalism. According to Keynes, capital assets prices are conceived as the expression of financial conventions. It is, therefore, important to distinguish between the returns expected by company directors, bankers, holders of equity titles, risk-takers and, in contrast, risk-averse holders of debt securities. Minsky enriches the analysis by attributing a decisive role to the leverage effect, at the origin of an accumulation of financial weaknesses in the balance sheets of non-financial agents during the expansion phases preceding financial crises. Regulation theory leads to the introduction of a distinction between the financial accelerator and the leverage effect. The first establishes a procyclical relationship at the macroeconomic level between the price of capital assets and the debt ratio of non-financial agents; the second acts at the microeconomic level through shareholder corporate governance, which determines the institutional conditions inciting firm directors to integrate shareholder expectations into their return forecasts. The empirical analysis identifies three forms of financial instability in financialised capitalism: the long-term financial cycle governed by the debt ratio of non-financial agents; the business cycle governed by the impact of stock prices on investment; and the short-term or even very short-term expected return revisions of financial actors. Its originality is to show that these three forms of instability acquire different characteristics depending on the national economy considered.

Details

Rethinking Finance in the Face of New Challenges
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80117-788-7

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 August 2021

Kolawole Ebire, Saif Ullah, Bosede Ngozi Adeleye and Muhammad Ibrahim Shah

This study aims to examine the effect of various forms of capital flows on financial stability in middle-income countries from 2010 to 2017 using the World Bank economy…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the effect of various forms of capital flows on financial stability in middle-income countries from 2010 to 2017 using the World Bank economy classifications of 121 economies.

Design/methodology/approach

Panel spatial correlation consistent approach was used in this study.

Findings

The findings provide convincing evidence that in middle-income countries, capital flows are positive and significant predictors of financial stability and that financial systems in advanced economies are more stable than those of emerging and developing countries. However, outward foreign direct investments are shown to have the largest potential for ensuring financial stability.

Originality/value

Globalization has fostered financial integration of nations, which is manifested in capital flows from lower-income countries to middle-income and upper-income countries and vice versa. These flows can lead to financial instability if not properly controlled. The authors show how the various forms of capital flows affect the financial stability in middle-income countries.

Details

Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, vol. 29 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1358-1988

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 23 September 2014

Marc Pilkington and Christine Sinapi

The purpose of this article is to highlight the need for renewed collaborative efforts between linguists and economists to develop a multidisciplinary approach to discourse…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to highlight the need for renewed collaborative efforts between linguists and economists to develop a multidisciplinary approach to discourse studies to single out, in the case at hand, how financial media discourse might reflect either a prevailing mainstream or a Minskian conceptual apparatus in financial crisis related papers.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper conducts exploratory research by focusing on semantic analysis, so as to indicate how the latter might possibly indicate a shift in the prevailing framework in contemporary financial media discourse. After a clear exposition of a theoretical dichotomy between the Minskian and mainstream approaches, it relies on Tropes software to conduct applied discourse analysis and discover evidence for the aforementioned shift. It exploits a set of three crisis-related articles from the Financial Times written by Martin Wolf. The selected corpora consist of opinion articles, a genre believed to be both emblematic of financial media discourse and subject to the influence of underlying theoretical frameworks.

Findings

The paper has identified a convincing Minskian vs mainstream dichotomy that may be substantiated by a set of disciplinary criteria. It argues that these criteria can be further used in applied discourse analysis. It demonstrates the relevance of our methodology from the exploratory test conducted. Eventually, these exploratory results, although they remain embryonic, suggest that a shift in the conceptual frameworks underlying the media discourses has taken place, from the Mainstream in fair weather conditions to (possibly) a more Minskian framework in times of crisis and financial instability.

Research limitations/implications

The sample size is extremely restricted (albeit acceptable in an exploratory research context); these limitations are inherent in exploratory research and do not preclude the validity of the broader interdisciplinary research agenda. In our proposed theoretical dichotomy, the mainstream approach is subject to caution insofar as no single and consensual definition of the latter exists to date in the literature.

Social implications

This article has highlighted the need for further multidisciplinary collaborative research endeavors (in particular, linguistics and economics). It has also touched the issue of crisis prevention and early warning systems, which may include financial press monitoring.

Originality/value

There exists a powerful media sphere within which financial discourse may exert an influence on decision-makers through the influence of underlying theoretical frameworks, eventually shaping real economic outcomes. The research program initiated, by combining the insights of economics and linguistics; therefore, aims to uncover the modus operandi of financial media discourse.

Details

On the Horizon, vol. 22 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1074-8121

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 8 November 2010

Siqiwen Li

Among divergent approaches to understand the global financial crisis, Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis has gained increased attention. In part, the chapter draws upon…

Abstract

Among divergent approaches to understand the global financial crisis, Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis has gained increased attention. In part, the chapter draws upon Minsky's notion that the seeds of instability are sown when banks, households, and firms move from hedge to speculative and then into Ponzi financial positions. Financial innovations such as securitisation contribute to this transformation. In addition, the paper will discuss the findings arising from an analysis of interviews that focus on securitisation related issues after the sub-prime crisis with practitioners who were closely involved in regulation and risk-management. The paper highlights the need for fundamental reform in the financial sector with a more consistent regulatory platform and enhanced supervision, to facilitate rapid healing from the damage arising from the financial crisis in Australia.

Details

International Banking in the New Era: Post-Crisis Challenges and Opportunities
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-913-8

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2009

Susan Schroeder

The purpose of this study is to investigate why “financial fragility” carries different definitions in the economic literature. This is a useful task as the detection of “financial

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate why “financial fragility” carries different definitions in the economic literature. This is a useful task as the detection of “financial fragility” depends, in part, upon how one defines it. According to Post Keynesian economists, financial fragility is a process that can culminate in financial instability (an event). For mainstream or New Keynesian economists, financial fragility has been traditionally defined as a state in which a shock can trigger instability. More recently, however, mainstream economists have recast their definition as a particular form of financial instability – an event. Each definition of financial fragility is intimately linked to the theoretical foundation upon which it rests. This carries important implications for the ability of policymakers to assess and manage the health of an economy.

Design/methodology/approach

The different approaches to the definition and detection of financial fragility are compared using corresponding sets of indicators. Indicators for the Post Keynesian approach are derived from a simple cash‐flow accounting framework, in the spirit of Hyman Minsky. The economy selected for study is New Zealand.

Findings

According to the Post Keynesian approach, New Zealand has been in a financially fragile state for over three years, a period during which policymakers could have been creating ways to make New Zealand more resilient to the onset of instability. According to the New Keynesian approach, New Zealand may just now be experiencing fragility, giving policymakers much less time to react.

Originality/value

This study traces the definitions of financial fragility to their underlying theoretical frameworks and draws the implications for the methods of detecting financial fragility.

Details

International Journal of Social Economics, vol. 36 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0306-8293

Keywords

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