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The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the efficiency of Greek fixed-odds (offline) betting market as offered by OPAP for the period 2016–2019.

Using a four-year data sample of OPAP's opening and closing odds for football matches from all over the world and applying linear probability and probit models, the market efficiency is examined and the existence of possible anomalies is investigated.

The main findings of research suggest that although the odds are dominated primarily by favorite-longshot bias and secondarily by draw bias, this mispricing cannot prove profitable. However, the opening odds, the margin levels and the market structure provide information that is not fully captured by the closing odds, giving bettors profit opportunities. Thus, findings show that the semi-strong market efficiency is questionable. Finally, competition reduces commissions leading to more efficient odds.

The conclusions of this study are useful for football betting market and, particularly, for government authorities, bookmakers and bettors. Findings can be extended in future research to prediction tasks.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study about the Greek football betting market. The contribution to the literature lies on the one hand in the examination of a monopolistic land-based betting market, which is being squeezed and threatened by the more competitive online betting market, and on the other hand in the simultaneous examination of the opening and closing odds.

The purpose of this paper is to use financial market prices formed in betting markets as a measure of uncertainty of outcome and other factors as it relates to hockey attendance in three top European leagues, the KHL, SHL, and Liiga. This is the first study of European hockey to use betting market odds to estimate the impact of home team win probability and uncertainty of outcome on attendance.

The design of this study is a multivariate regression model with log of attendance and percentage of arena capacity as dependent variables in two separate regressions. Controlling for other factors, the role of the home team win probability and its square are explored for individual game attendance.

Fans of the KHL and SHL are found to prefer to see their home team win, but also exhibit strong preferences for uncertainty of outcome. Fans of Liiga prefer to see the home team win, but do not exhibit as strong a preference for uncertainty of outcome. This differs from recent findings in the sport of baseball and from previous findings for the NHL.

Having a competitive league is not only important for television ratings, but also for in-person attendance in these European hockey leagues. Importance of uncertainty of outcome varies across leagues.

The paper uses financial market prices, betting market odds, as a measure of game expectations (home team win probability) and uncertainty of outcome and applies it to a new setting for three of the top European hockey leagues. The findings illustrate that uncertainty of outcome is important for the KHL and SHL, but statistically insignificant for Liiga.

The purpose of this paper is to use some of the contributions of the option pricing theory to solve three outstanding puzzles in finance: the underdiversification puzzle, the volatility puzzle and the equity premium puzzle.

To approach the issue, this paper considers the applications of the option pricing theory to both sides of the corporate balance sheet. Applications to the left-hand side of the balance sheet has led to the real options theory that has expressed the value of a capital budgeting project as the sum of the values of its “discounted cash flow (DCF) method” and “real options.” This paper argues that, because the balance sheet must balance, the value of equity, which appears on the right-hand side of the balance sheet, should also be expressed as the sum of the values of its “DCF method” and “equity options.”

This proposed model of equity valuation solves the three outstanding puzzles in finance: the underdiversification puzzle, the volatility puzzle and the equity premium puzzle.

This study may not be able to explain the full extent of the three puzzles.

The dividend discount model of equity valuation needs to be augmented by an option component.

The community of finance scholars will become more confident of their scholarly work because three puzzles will be solved to a great extent.

To the best of author’s knowledge, the extant literature does not either solve any single one of the three puzzles through the contributions of option pricing theory or solve all three puzzles at the same time with a single solution. The originality of this paper is that it makes both of these contributions to the extant literature.

The selection of experts for Delphi studies is crucial for the quality of the forecast results and the information taken into account. In the past, this has usually been done by selecting participants according to their reputation, although this approach is questionable in terms of reaching the most knowledgeable participants having new, relevant and valid information. In this context, this paper aims to propose to operate a prediction market alongside Delphi studies and select participants based on their trading behaviour in the market for the Delphi study.

Based on more than three years of historical prediction market trading data, the authors verify attributes that indicate insightful trades, as previously discussed in the finance literature, by using regression and classification trees.

The paper contributes attributes of trading behaviour that are theoretically derived from literature and potentially related to informed traders. These are tested and evaluated on historical prediction market data. Especially, the trading volume, the spread at the moment of trading and the market maker attribute seem to predict informed traders the best.

Algorithms based on identified attributes can be used to objectify the selection of experts for Delphi studies with potential gains in terms of the amount of information considered.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market demand of sport lottery in China from the following perspectives: available types and varieties of sport lottery, number of retail outlets, public welfare funds, promotion costs, per capita income, and population.

As the earliest province of issuing the sales of sport lottery and having one of the largest sales volumes in China, Guangdong Province was chosen for conducting the current study. Data were obtained from 14 sport lottery administration and distribution centers and statistics bureaus of 14 corresponding municipal cities. Multiple regression analysis was used.

Multiple regression analyses revealed that number of retail outlets, promotion cost, per capita income, and public welfare funds were positively (p<0.05) predictive of sport lottery sales; however, available types and varieties of sport lottery were not found to be significantly (p>0.05) related to total sport lottery sales. The findings are discussed in the context of theories and practices in the marketing and administration of sport lottery sales in China.

Similar studies are suggested to be conducted in provinces and regions beyond Guangdong Province.

This study combined socioeconomic characteristics of the population, lottery game characteristics and management factors for the first time.