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This study aims to improve the reliability of emergency safety barriers by using the subjective safety analysis based on evidential reasoning theory in order to develop on a framework for optimizing the reliability of emergency safety barriers.

The emergency event tree analysis is combined with an interval type-2 fuzzy-set and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. In order to the quantitative data is not available, this study based on interval type2 fuzzy set theory, trapezoidal fuzzy numbers describe the expert's imprecise uncertainty about the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers related to the liquefied petroleum gas storage prevent. Fuzzy fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered weighted average aggregation are used to address uncertainties in emergency safety barrier reliability assessment. In addition, a critical analysis and some corrective actions are suggested to identify weak points in emergency safety barriers. Therefore, a framework decisions are proposed to optimize and improve safety barrier reliability. Decision-making in this framework uses evidential reasoning theory to identify corrective actions that can optimize reliability based on subjective safety analysis.

A real case study of a liquefied petroleum gas storage in Algeria is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The results show that the proposed methodology provides the possibility to evaluate the values of the fuzzy failure probability of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the fuzzy failure probabilities using the fuzzy type-2 AHP method are the most reliable and accurate. As a result, the improved fault tree analysis can estimate uncertain expert opinion weights, identify and evaluate failure probability values for critical basic event. Therefore, suggestions for corrective measures to reduce the failure probability of the fire-fighting system are provided. The obtained results show that of the ten proposed corrective actions, the corrective action “use of periodic maintenance tests” prioritizes reliability, optimization and improvement of safety procedures.

This study helps to determine the safest and most reliable corrective measures to improve the reliability of safety barriers. In addition, it also helps to protect people inside and outside the company from all kinds of major industrial accidents. Among the limitations of this study is that the cost of corrective actions is not taken into account.

Our contribution is to propose an integrated approach that uses interval type-2 fuzzy sets and AHP method and emergency event tree analysis to handle uncertainty in the failure probability assessment of emergency safety barriers. In addition, the integration of fault tree analysis and fuzzy ordered averaging aggregation helps to improve the reliability of the fire-fighting system and optimize the corrective actions that can improve the safety practices in liquefied petroleum gas storage tanks.

The main goal of this paper is to develop novel Tω(weakest t-norm)-based fuzzy arithmetic operations to analyze the intuitionistic fuzzy reliability of Printed Circuit Board Assembly (PCBA) using fault tree.

The paper proposes a fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) method for evaluating the intuitionistic fuzzy reliability of any nonrepairable system with uncertain information about failures of system components. This method uses a fault tree for modeling the failure phenomenon of the system, triangular intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (TIFNs) to determine data uncertainty, while novel arithmetic operations are adopted to determine the intuitionistic fuzzy reliability of a system under consideration. The proposed arithmetic operations employ Tω(weakest t-norm) to minimize the accumulating phenomenon of fuzziness, whereas the weighted arithmetic mean is employed to determine the membership as well as nonmembership degrees of the intuitionistic fuzzy failure possibility of the nonrepairable system. The usefulness of the proposed method has been illustrated by inspecting the intuitionistic fuzzy failure possibility of the PCBA and comparing the results with five other existing FFTA methods.

The results show that the proposed FFTA method effectively reduces the accumulating phenomenon of fuzziness and provides optimized degrees of membership and nonmembership for computed intuitionistic fuzzy reliability of a nonrepairable system.

The paper introduces Tω(weakest t-norm) and weighted arithmetic mean based operations for evaluating the intuitionistic fuzzy failure possibility of any nonrepairable system in an uncertain environment using a fault tree.

In the continuous development of high-speed railways, ensuring the safety of the operation control system is crucial. Electromagnetic interference (EMI) faults in signaling equipment may cause transportation interruptions, delays and even threaten the safety of train operations. Exploring the impact of disturbances on signaling equipment and establishing evaluation methods for the correlation between EMI and safety is urgently needed.

This paper elaborates on the necessity and significance of studying the impact of EMI as an unavoidable and widespread risk factor in the external environment of high-speed railway operations and continuous development. The current status of research methods and achievements from the perspectives of standard systems, reliability analysis and safety assessment are examined layer by layer. Additionally, it provides prospects for innovative ideas for exploring the quantitative correlation between EMI and signaling safety.

Despite certain innovative achievements in both domestic and international standard systems and related research for ensuring and evaluating railway signaling safety, there’s a lack of quantitative and strategic research on the degradation of safety performance in signaling equipment due to EMI. A quantitative correlation between EMI and safety has yet to be established. On this basis, this paper proposes considerations for research methods pertaining to the correlation between EMI and safety.

This paper overviews a series of methods and outcomes derived from domestic and international studies regarding railway signaling safety, encompassing standard systems, reliability analysis and safety assessment. Recognizing the necessity for quantitatively describing and predicting the impact of EMI on high-speed railway signaling safety, an innovative approach using risk assessment techniques as a bridge to establish the correlation between EMI and signaling safety is proposed.

In recent years, cost overrun becomes a common problem in steel building construction projects. The average percentage can vary widely depending on the project type, size, complexity and location. The steel structure change ratio in Taiwan is from 1 to 18% in statistics. The contractors always put every possible effort into preventing or mitigating project cost overruns, and one of the approaches is an accurate cost overrun risk estimate. Traditional project cost overrun risk assessment models mainly focus on macro-level evaluation and may not function well for the project-specific level (micro-level). This study creates a network-like connection model between the outcome (i.e. cost overrun risk) and the associated root causes in which the project status evaluation checklists of design, manufacturing, construction and interfaces are used to evaluate the checklists' influences through the Bayesian network (BN) composed by intermediate causes.

Due to the constraint of data availability, BN nodes, relationships and conditional probabilities are defined to establish a BN-based steel building project cost overrun assessment model following the knowledge of experts. Because of the complexity of the BN, the construction of the BN structure is first to build BN's fault tree (FT) hierarchy. And then, basic BN framework is constructed by the transformation of the FT hierarchy. Furthermore, some worthwhile additional arcs among BN nodes are inserted if necessary. Furthermore, conditional probability tables (CPTs) among BN nodes are explored by experts following the concept of the ranked node. Finally, the BN-based model was validated against the final cost analysis reports of 15 steel building projects done in Taiwan and both were highly consistent. The overall BN-based model construction process consists of three steps: (1) FT construction and BN framework transformation, (2) CPT computation and (3) model validation.

This study established a network-like bridge model between the outcome (i.e. cost overrun risk) and the root causes in a network of which cost influences are evaluated through the project-specific status evaluation checklists of design, manufacturing, construction and interfaces. This study overcame several limitations of the previous cost overrun risk assessment models: (1) few past research support assessment of cost overrun based on real-time project-owned data and (2) the traditional causal models inadequately depict interdependencies among influence factors of cost overrun at the network. The main influence factors of the cost overrun risk at the steel building projects in Taiwan were also examined using sensitivity analysis. The main root causes of cost overrun in steel building projects are design management and interface integration.

The proposed model belongs to the project-specific causal assessment model using real-time project-owned status checklist data as input. Such a model was seldom surveyed in the past due to the complicated interdependence among causes in the network. For practical use, a convenient and simple regression equation was also developed to forecast the cost overrun risk of the steel building project based on the root causes as input. Based on the analysis of cost overrun risk and significant influence factors, proper tailor-made preventive strategies are established to reduce the occurrence of cost overrun at the project.

The purpose of this study is to propose an extended reliability method for an industrial motor drive by integrating the physics of failure (PoF).

Industrial motor drive systems (IMDS) are currently expected to perform beyond the desired operating conditions to meet the demand. The PoF of the subsystem affects its reliability under such harsh operating circumstances. It is crucial to estimate reliability by integrating PoF, which helps in understanding its impact and to develop a fault-tolerant design, particularly in such an integrated drive system. An integrated PoF extended reliability method for industrial drive system is proposed to address this issue. In research, the numerical failure rate of each component of industrial drive is obtained first with the help of the MIL-HDBK-217 military handbook. Furthermore, the mathematically deduced proposed approach is modeled in the GoldSim Monte Carlo reliability workbench.

From the results, for a 15% rise in integrated PoF, the reliability and availability of the entire IMDS dropped by 23%, resulting in an impact on mean time to failure (MTTF).

The integrated PoF of the motor and motor controller affects industrial drive reliability, which falls to 0.18 with the least MTTF (2.27 years); whose overall reliability of industrial drive drops to 0.06 if it is additionally integrated with communication protocol.

Prefabricated technology is gradually being applied to the construction of subway stations due to its characteristic of mechanization. However, the prefabricated subway station in China is in the initial stage of development, which is prone to construction safety issues. This study aims to evaluate the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations in China and formulate corresponding countermeasures to ensure construction safety.

A construction safety risk evaluation index system for the prefabricated subway station was established through literature research and the Delphi method. Furthermore, based on the structure entropy weight method, matter-element theory and evidence theory, a hybrid evaluation model is developed to evaluate the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations. The basic probability assignment (BPA) function is obtained using the matter-element theory, the index weight is calculated using the structure entropy weight method to modify the BPA function and the risk evaluation level is determined using the evidence theory. Finally, the reliability and applicability of the evaluation model are verified with a case study of a prefabricated subway station project in China.

The results indicate that the level of construction safety risks in the prefabricated subway station project is relatively low. Man risk, machine risk and method risk are the key factors affecting the overall risk of the project. The evaluation results of the first-level indexes are discussed, and targeted countermeasures are proposed. Therefore, management personnel can deeply understand the construction safety risks of prefabricated subway stations.

This research fills the research gap in the field of construction safety risk assessment of prefabricated subway stations. The methods for construction safety risk assessment are summarized to establish a reliable hybrid evaluation model, laying the foundation for future research. Moreover, the construction safety risk evaluation index system for prefabricated subway stations is proposed, which can be adopted to guide construction safety management.

The chemical plant (CP) maintenance industry has been under increasing pressure by process designers to demonstrate its evaluation and information management of model checking (MC) on the durability’s performance and design of plant control instrument. This main problem has been termed as imperfect maintenance actions (IMAs) level. Although IMAs have been explored in interdisciplinary maintenance environments, less is known about what imperfect maintenance problems currently exist and what their causes are, such as the recent explosion in the Beirut city (4 August 2020, about 181 fatalities). The aim of this paper is to identify how CP maintenance environments could integrate MC within their processes.

To achieve this aim, a comprehensive literature review of the existing conceptualisation of MC practices is reviewed and the main features of information and communication technology tools and techniques currently being employed on such IMA projects are carried out and synthesised into a conceptual framework for integrating MC in the automation system process.

The literature reveals that various CP designers conceptualise MC in different ways. MC is commonly shaped by long-term compliance to fulfil the requirement for maintaining a comfortable durability risk on imperfect maintenance schemes of CP projects. Also, there is a lack of common approaches for integrating the delivery process of MC. The conceptual framework demonstrates the importance of early integration of MC in the design phase to identify alternative methods to cogenerate, monitor and optimise MC.

Thus far, this study advances the knowledge about how CP maintenance environments can ensure MC delivery. This paper highlights the need for further research to integrate MC in CP maintenance environments. A future study could validate the framework across the design phase with different CP project designers.

Decision-making problems in emergency plan selection for epidemic prevention and control (EPAC) are generally characterized by risky and uncertainty due to multiple possible emergency states and vagueness of decision information. In the process of emergency plan selection for EPAC, it is necessary to consider several obvious features, i.e. different states of epidemics, dynamic evolvement process of epidemics and decision-makers' (DMs') psychological factors such as risk preference and loss aversion.

In this paper, a novel decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed to solve emergency plan selection of an epidemic problem, which is generally regarded as hybrid-information multi-attribute decision-making (HI-MADM) problems in major epidemics. Initially, considering the psychological factors of DMs, the expectations of DMs are chosen as reference points to normalize the expectation vectors and decision information with three different formats. Subsequently, the matrix of gains and losses is established according to the reference points. Furthermore, the prospect value of each alternative is obtained and the comprehensive prospect values of alternatives under different states are calculated. Accordingly, the ranking of alternatives can be obtained.

The validity and robustness of the proposed method are demonstrated by a case calculation of emergency plan selection. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with fuzzy similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) method and TODIM (an acronym in Portuguese for interactive and MADM) method illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.

An emergency plan selection method is proposed for EPAC based on CPT, taking into account the psychological factors of DMs.

Highlights

1. This paper proposes a new CPT-based EDM method for EPAC under a major epidemic considering the psychological factorsof DMs, such as risk preference, loss aversion and so on.

2. The authors' work gives approaches of normalization, comparison and distance measurement for dealing with the integration of three hybrid formats of attributes.

3. This article gives some guidance, which contributes to solve the problems of risk-based hybrid multi-attribute EDM.

4. The authors illustrate the advantages of the proposed method by a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with existing FTOPSIS method and TODIM method.

This paper proposes a new CPT-based EDM method for EPAC under a major epidemic considering the psychological factorsof DMs, such as risk preference, loss aversion and so on.

The authors' work gives approaches of normalization, comparison and distance measurement for dealing with the integration of three hybrid formats of attributes.

This article gives some guidance, which contributes to solve the problems of risk-based hybrid multi-attribute EDM.

The authors illustrate the advantages of the proposed method by a sensitivity analysis and comparison analysis with existing FTOPSIS method and TODIM method.

Cyber risk has significantly increased over the past twenty years. In many organizations, data and operations are managed through a complex technology stack underpinned by an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system such as systemanalyse programmentwicklung (SAP). The ERP environment by itself can be overwhelming for a typical ERP Manager, coupled with increasing cybersecurity issues that arise creating periods of intense time pressure, stress and workload, increasing risk to the organization. This paper aims to identify a pragmatic approach to prioritize vulnerabilities for the ERP Manager.

Applying attention-based theory, a pragmatic approach is developed to prioritize an organization’s response to the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) vulnerabilities using a Classification and Regression Tree (CART).

The application of classification and regression tree (CART) to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s National Vulnerability Database identifies prioritization unavailable within the NIST’s categorization.

The ERP Manager is a role between technology, functionality, centralized control and organization data. Without CART, vulnerabilities are left to a reactive approach, subject to overwhelming situations due to intense time pressure, stress and workload.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this work is original and has not been published elsewhere, nor is it currently under consideration for publication elsewhere. CART has previously not been applied to the prioritizing cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

This study aims to develop a hierarchical reliability framework to evaluate the service delivery performance of education public–private partnerships (PPPs) effectively and efficiently during long-term operations.

The research design included development and test phases. In the development phase, three performance layers, i.e. indicator, component and system, in the education service delivery system were identified. Then, service component reliability was computed through first order reliability method (FORM). Finally, the reliability of the service system was obtained using dynamic component weightings. A PPP school example in Australia was set up in the test phase, where performance indicators were collected from relevant contract documents and performance data were simulated under three assumptive scenarios.

The example in the test phase yielded good results for the developed framework in evaluating uncertainties of service delivery performance for education PPPs. Potentially underperforming services from the component to the system level at dynamic timepoints were identified, and effective preventative maintenance strategies were developed.

This research enriches reliability theory and performance evaluation research on education PPPs. First, a series of performance evaluation indicators are constructed for assessing the performance of the service delivery of the education PPP operations. Then, a reliability-based framework for service components and system is developed to predict service performance of the PPP school operations with consideration of a range of uncertainties during project delivery.

The developed framework was illustrated with a real-world case study. It demonstrates that the developed reliability-based framework could potentially provide the practitioners of the public sector with a basis for developing effective preventative maintenance strategies with the aim of prolonging the service life of the PPP schools.

Evaluating education PPPs is challenging as it involves long-term measurement of various service components under uncertainty. The developed reliability-based framework is a valuable tool to ensure that reliability is maintained throughout the service life of education PPPs in the presence of uncertainty.