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Article
Publication date: 1 December 1999

James P. Gavigan and Fabiana Scapolo

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the…

Abstract

This paper discusses recent trends in public‐administration‐led foresight exercises from the perspective of how the choice of objectives and scope is reflected in the methods used. In countries where successive projects have been carried out, one can observe how the evolution in methods employed, aims to increase the impact and effectiveness of foresight. Organizing the discussion in terms of objectives departs from previous approaches in the literature which mostly distinguish between different foresight exercises according to the principal methodology used.

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Foresight, vol. 1 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 2001

James Gavigan, Mario Zappacosta, Ken Ducatel, Fabiana Scapolo and Paola di Pietrogiacomo

A review of recent foresight exercises reveals some important drivers of research in Europe. In this editorial, we introduce five main areas where science and technology…

Abstract

A review of recent foresight exercises reveals some important drivers of research in Europe. In this editorial, we introduce five main areas where science and technology will be required to deliver tangible gains for society and the economy in the coming years. It is no longer enough for research agendas to be dictated by the supply of expertise from the science base. Increasingly, they must respond to social values like access and sustainability, and humanize the interface between technology and people.

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Foresight, vol. 3 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 October 2001

Greg Tegart and Ainsley Jolley

Increasing urbanization in the Asia and Pacific region is leading to a rapid increase in the number of megacities. A major concern is the issue of sustainable transport…

Abstract

Increasing urbanization in the Asia and Pacific region is leading to a rapid increase in the number of megacities. A major concern is the issue of sustainable transport. This article describes the procedures used and results of a multi‐economy foresight study of sustainable transport in megacities of the Asia‐Pacific region. Key issues and policy actions needed are identified.

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Foresight, vol. 3 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 24 February 2020

Reza Alizadeh and Leili Soltanisehat

The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis.

Findings

Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors.

Originality/value

The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 15 May 2020

Refaat Chaabouni and Lotfi Bouzaiane

This paper aims to focus on the Tunisian National Innovation System (NIS) and the conditions that might foster its aptitude to support socio-economic transformation.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to focus on the Tunisian National Innovation System (NIS) and the conditions that might foster its aptitude to support socio-economic transformation.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper adopts an original twofold foresight methodology combining the analysis of key players with the exploration of scenarios. While usually, a foresight exercise considers only one of these two futures studies approaches.

Findings

The “Dynamic Islands System” scenario reflects the present situation and current trends. It shows that all expected components of an efficient system are in place, but they are evolving more or less independently. “Connected System” is the most desirable option because it reflects the potential to improve strongly productivity, competitiveness and social inclusion. The “Dislocated System” is a third possible but risky scenario. Despite the interesting insights provided through futures imaging, the scenario approach is not sufficient in providing indications of how and which actors can make happen the changes needed to move towards the desired state. So, a second step of the adopted twofold foresight approach addresses the role of key players. The analysis aims to reveal which actors are in a position to implement the required changes and thereby support the transition from the present to the desired scenario.

Practical implications

The challenges ahead are then pointed out, namely, that the private sector and firms would have to take the lead in the future; and that the less influential players would have to work side by side to be able to direct the NIS to the “Connected scenario”.

Originality/value

The clue in this approach is to transform a sub-optimal reality to achieve a desired end-state by understanding the trend scenario. The actors’ analysis helps to clarify the respective attitudes and concerns of the players vis-à-vis the required changes. In this two-step foresight approach, the desired scenario is considered as a specific project.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 23 June 2020

Jean Paul Pinto and Javier Medina

This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose a new strategic foresight process that combines aspects from science fiction, speculative design and tools linked to organizational processes, first, to generate potential new services and products and, second, to reduce problems associated with the construction of low-impact and irrelevant scenarios for decision-making processes. As a new proposal, it invites reflection and debate.

Design/methodology/approach

After reviewing the literature on the key concepts that represent the essence of strategic foresight, as well as the traditional processes to reflect on the future, a proposal for a new hybrid, integrative foresight process that allows moving from imagination to the materialization of scenarios will be presented.

Findings

The new hybrid process makes evident the need to articulate strategic foresight with other areas of knowledge and management tools to build scenarios with greater impact on decision-making and greater added value from strategic foresight to organizational processes.

Originality/value

The proposed integrative model articulates tools that already exist, but the originality of the proposal lies in that there are no models that integrate science fiction, speculative design, and other organizational tools in a single process.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 5 October 2017

François J. Dessart and René van Bavel

This commentary argues that social marketing and the application of behavioural sciences to policy constitute two converging paths towards better policies. It highlights…

Abstract

Purpose

This commentary argues that social marketing and the application of behavioural sciences to policy constitute two converging paths towards better policies. It highlights points of convergence and divergence between both disciplines and the potential benefits of further embedding social marketing principles and methods within the recent trend of applying behavioural sciences to policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The commentary relies on a review of the behavioural sciences and social marketing literatures and on an analysis of institutional reports reviewing cases of behaviourally informed policies.

Findings

Behavioural sciences are increasingly informing policies to promote societal well-being. Social marketing has seldom been explicitly considered as being part of this phenomenon, although it is de facto. Both disciplines share similar end-goals, inform similar policy applications and are rooted in behavioural analysis. They diverge in their theoretical frameworks, their relative emphasis on behaviour change and the span of interventions they generate. Several benefits of embedding social marketing principles and methods within the current way of applying behavioural sciences to policy are identified.

Practical implications

Scholars applying behavioural sciences to policy are encouraged, when appropriate, to use the insights and methods from social marketing. Social marketing can engage in a dialogue with behavioural sciences to explore how to pilot the convergence of both approaches in practice.

Originality/value

The novelty of this contribution lies in providing the first comparison of the application of behavioural sciences to policy with social marketing, and in using the policy-making cycle framework to map the contributions and complementarities of both disciplines.

Details

Journal of Social Marketing, vol. 7 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-6763

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Article
Publication date: 2 October 2019

Akwesi Assensoh-Kodua

Social media has become a “thing” not just for its historical purpose of socialisation, but a multi-faceted platform of unpredictable possibilities. With the current high…

Abstract

Purpose

Social media has become a “thing” not just for its historical purpose of socialisation, but a multi-faceted platform of unpredictable possibilities. With the current high levels of actual usage, business on the platform has assumed different styles and has become one of the competing activities on this platform, creating a dilemma for the future. However, as social beings, we can manage such capricious adventure by means of research, to predict the possible destination before we are taken by surprise. One of such medium of studies is through the philosophies of the continuance intention theories. To this end, the purpose of this paper was to investigated some antecedents of social media that are capable of predicting the direction of this platform to test this theory of continuance intention, and the results from the predictive Smart PLS3 shows that the continuance intention for business on this platform will overtake socialisation to offer the biggest market among the elitist class in the near future, and not China, Nigeria or the NYSE.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses Predictive Smart PLS3 to analyse the continuance intention of social media platforms.

Findings

Predictive Smart PLS3 shows that the continuance intention for business on social media platform will overtake socialisation to offer the biggest market.

Research limitations/implications

The questions asked in this study focussed on buyers and not platform managers. As the continuance intention depends on the latter as well, it would have been better if their opinions were also sought to determine what will make them continue to provide social media.

Originality/value

This paper is among the first to do such a study.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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