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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 January 2010

John E. Berg

Prediction of increased risk of suicide is difficult. We had the opportunity to follow up 20 patients receiving electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) because of severe depression. They…

Abstract

Prediction of increased risk of suicide is difficult. We had the opportunity to follow up 20 patients receiving electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) because of severe depression. They filled in the Antonovsky sense of coherence test (SOC) and Beck depression inventory (BDI) before and after a series of ECT treatments. Seventeen surviving patients had a mean observation time of 20.6 months, whereas the three deceased patients had 11.3 months. There was a lower mean age at onset of illness and a longer mean duration of disease in the deceased. Other clinical parameters did not differ. The surviving patients had a significant decrease on the BDI from 35 to 18 (P<0.001) and an increase on the SOC test after ECT from 2.45 to 3.19 (P<0.001), indicating both less depression and better functioning in life. The deceased had a larger change on the BDI from 32 to 13, not attaining significance because of the low number of deceased. The SOC test, however, did not increase to a purported normal level; that is, from 2.43 to 2.87. Although the SOC scale has been shown to predict mortality in substance abusers, the SOC test has not been part of earlier reviews of predictive power. Tentatively, a low pathological score on the SOC test may indicate low sense of coherence in life that might increase the propensity for suicide. These preliminary results need replication in larger studies.

Details

Mental Illness, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2036-7465

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 7 April 2023

Billy Prananta and Constantinos Alexiou

The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and…

1013

Abstract

Purpose

The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors employ a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology using daily data of the Indonesian economy over the period 2012–2021.

Findings

Whilst, over the full sample period, the authors find no cointegration between the exchange rate, the 10-year bond yield and stock market, for the COVID-19 period, evidence of cointegration is present. Furthermore, the results suggest that asymmetric effects are evident both in the short as well as the long run.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic has been explored in the case of the Indonesian economy.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 May 2023

Dhyani Mehta and M. Mallikarjun

This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin…

1632

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive distributed lagARDL) bound test approach was used by taking annual time series data from 1978 to 2021. The estimates confirm a significant long-run and short-run relationship between dependent variables, i.e. CAD and independent variables such as the fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness.

Findings

The results show that positive shocks of all explanatory variables significantly affect the CAD. CAD and fiscal deficit are significantly associated, as the coefficient of fiscal deficit is positive and significant. The study also found that exchange rate and trade openness significantly affect the CAD. The coefficients of exchange rate and trade openness are positive and significant. The findings show that an increase in CADs results from liberal trade policies that help domestic industries grow their trade and expansionary fiscal policy, leading to a higher fiscal deficit. The negative and significant error correction term suggests that short-run disequilibrium converges to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 19.2%. The findings validate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.

Practical implications

It can be inferred from the study that liberal policy to promote economic growth and trade openness should be designed and promoted judiciously. An excessive liberalised approach may impact other macroeconomic variables such as current account balances. Integrating the domestic market with global markets poses a big challenge for countries like India that aspire to penetrate global markets. Furthermore, the Indian policy makers should rigorously work and promote the policies such as Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) as reduction in fiscal deficits, trade imbalances will also be reduced.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature on ‘twin deficit’ and trade openness by giving new evidence on the trilemma between designing sustainable fiscal policy by spending wisely without imperilling the country's global presence and CAD.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 December 2022

Mesbah Fathy Sharaf and Abdelhalem Mahmoud Shahen

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on Egypt's real domestic output from 1960 to 2020.

2444

Abstract

Purpose

This paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) on Egypt's real domestic output from 1960 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model is utilized to isolate real currency depreciations from appreciations and account for the potential asymmetry in the impact of the REER. The analyses account for the various channels via which the REER could affect domestic output.

Findings

Results show evidence of a long-run asymmetry in the output effect of REER changes in which only real currency depreciations have a contractionary impact on output, while the REER has no impact on output in the short run.

Practical implications

The Egyptian monetary authority cannot rely on domestic currency depreciation as a policy instrument to boost domestic output.

Originality/value

Unlike most of the previous studies, which assume linearity in the impact of the REER on output, we relax this assumption and hypothesize that the REER changes have an asymmetric effect on the Egyptian domestic output in Egypt. We use a long time span from 1960 to 2020 and control for the potential structural breaks in the REER-output nexus and the various channels through which the REER can affect domestic output.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 7 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 November 2019

Van Anh Pham

The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze the exchange rate pass-through into inflation (ERPT) in Vietnam.

2793

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine and analyze the exchange rate pass-through into inflation (ERPT) in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper examines and analyzes the ERPT in Vietnam by applying vector autoregression model over the period 2008‒2018.

Findings

The key finding of the research is that from the impulse response results, the transmission of exchange rate shocks to inflation is significant in Vietnam, and this is incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Moreover, the evidence from variance decompositions argues that exchange rate is an important factor to explain the fluctuation of inflation.

Originality/value

In overall, the depreciation or appreciation of exchange rate in Vietnam will considerably impact inflation.

Details

Journal of Economics and Development, vol. 21 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-5330

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 23 August 2019

Luciano Campos

This paper aims to estimate the impact of the 2000s commodity boom in the major Latin American economies.

1921

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to estimate the impact of the 2000s commodity boom in the major Latin American economies.

Design/methodology/approach

The author used a structural vector autorregresive analysis where the selection of variables is conditional on a New Keynesian Model for a small open economy.

Findings

The evidence indicates that the Argentinean nominal exchange rate appreciated less while its output and inflation grew more than those of the other nations when subjected to commodity shocks. These results are interpreted as a more aggressive leaning-against-the-wind intervention by Argentina, probably to avoid the Dutch disease. Although the effects with regard to output were indeed stronger in Argentina, this was only at the expense of higher inflation and volatility suffered during the boom.

Originality/value

At the time of the writing of this paper, no work had evaluated Argentinean underperformace to the manner in which its exchange rate policy was handled in comparison with the rest of the region during the boom. This paper intends to fill this gap.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 27 no. 79
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-7627

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 April 2021

Kurtulus Bozkurt, Hatice Armutçuoğlu Tekin and Zeliha Can Ergün

This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry.

1584

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry.

Design/methodology/approach

A panel data set is constructed covering the period between 1995 and 2017, and the data set includes the top 26 countries that host 10 million tourists and above in the world as of 2017. The standard errors of the series are used as an indicator of shocks. First, the cross-sectional dependency, stationarity and the homogeneity of the series are examined; second, a panel cointegration analysis is implemented; third, long-term panel cointegration coefficients are analyzed with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) approach; and, finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test is used to detect the causality.

Findings

The preliminary analyses show that the variables are cross-sectional dependent and heterogeneous and are stationary in their first difference; hence, the effects of the shocks are temporary. On the other hand, as a result of the panel cointegration analysis, it is found that both series are cointegrated over the long-term. However, the long-term coefficients estimated with the DCCE approach are found not to be statistically significant. Finally, as a result of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test, it is concluded that there is a causality running from exchange rate shocks to demand shocks.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the cointegration between the tourism demand shocks and exchange rates shocks has not been investigated before, and therefore, this study is considered to be a pioneering study that will contribute to the literature.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 29 no. 86
Type: Research Article
ISSN:

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 July 2019

Van Anh Pham

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam.

4925

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate and analyze impacts of the monetary policy (MP) – money aggregate and interest rate – on the exchange rate in Vietnam.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses data over the period of 2008–2018 and applies the vector autoregression model, namely recursive restriction and sign restriction approaches.

Findings

The main empirical findings are as follows: a contraction of the money aggregate significantly leads to the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciating and then appreciating; a tightening of the interest rate immediately causes the REER appreciating and then depreciating; and both the money aggregate and the interest rate strongly determine fluctuations of the REER.

Originality/value

The quantitative results imply that the MP affects the REER considerably.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 26 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 October 2017

Mongi Arfaoui and Aymen Ben Rejeb

The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect…

25752

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect linkages among them.

Design/methodology/approach

A methodology based on simultaneous equations system was used to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period 1995-2015. The authors try initially to find theoretical answers to main question of the study by discussing causal bilateral relationships while focusing on multilateral interactions.

Findings

The results show significant interactions between all markets. The authors found a negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil futures prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold rate is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock markets. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold price. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.

Originality/value

Motivation of this research paper is the substantial implications of price movements on real economy and financial markets. Understanding that co-movement has great value for investors, policy makers and portfolio managers. This paper differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, most of the research papers focus on bilateral linkages solely, while the authors’ investigation was implemented on all the four markets simultaneously. Second, the study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 26 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 3 July 2021

Faik Bilgili, Fatma Ünlü, Pelin Gençoğlu and Sevda Kuşkaya

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of…

2151

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the pass-through (PT) effect in Turkey by using quarterly data for the period 1998: Q1-2019: Q2 to understand the dynamic potential effects of exchange rates on domestic prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper launches several nonlinear models in which the basic determinants of domestic prices in Turkey are determined through Markov regime-switching models (MSMs). Hence, this research follows the variables of the consumer price index (CPI), USD exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP; demand side of the economy), industrial production index (production side of the economy), economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk index for Turkey.

Findings

This work explores that the exchange rate and demand side of the economy (GDP) follow a positive nonlinear relationship with CPI at both regimes. The production side of the economy (IP) affects negatively the CPI during regime 0. Economic uncertainty influences the CPI positively at Regime 1, while geopolitical risk has a negative association with CPI at Regime 0. Eventually, the paper provides some policy proposals associated with the impacts of GDP, IP, economic uncertainty and geopolitical risk on CPI in Turkey.

Originality/value

One may claim that any PT model, which does not observe the possible structural or regime shifts in estimated parameters, might fail to estimate the coefficients unbiasedly and efficiently. Hence, this work differs from available relevant works in the literature since this paper considers linearity or nonlinearity important and reveals that the relevant PT model follows a nonlinear path rather than a linear path, this nonlinear path is converged strongly by MSMs and estimates the significant regime shifts in the constant term and, in parameters of independent variables of PT by MSMs.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 30 no. 88
Type: Research Article
ISSN:

Keywords

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