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The purpose of this paper is to examine the behavior of governments in terms of trade policy design when they experience a lack of foreign resources from international trade after ensuring the sustainability of their external debt. To do so, the paper defines two concepts of trade space: “De Facto Trade Space” and “De Jure trade space.”

To conduct this study, the author relies on a panel data set comprising 109 countries over the period 1998–2014. To perform the empirical analysis, the author has mainly used the system generalized methods of moments approach.

The empirical analysis suggests evidence that trade space matters significantly for trade policy. Indeed, “De Facto Trade Space” is consistently associated with greater trade policy liberalization, with this positive effect being higher, the higher the development level – proxied by the real per capita income – of the concerned country. “De Jure Trade Space” tends to lead to greater trade policy liberalization in less advanced developing countries, but is associated with the adoption of trade restrictive measures in more advanced countries. Additionally, results suggest different impacts on trade policy of “Positive De Jure Trade Space” and “Negative De Jure Trade Space.”

These findings suggest that the trade space, as defined in this study, plays a key role in trade policy design by policymakers.

The current study shows that trade space could significantly matter for trade policy design by policymakers.

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the study dealing directly with the “trade space” concept as well as its impact on trade policy.

This chapter identifies features of foreign economic policy of the Republic of Belarus determined by its multidirectional external economic relations and participation in the processes of international economic integration.

It is noted that in the last decade there has been an active search for opportunities to shift the focus in foreign economic policy, including geographic redirection of trade and investment flows, intensification of the search for a “niche” and new ways of incorporating into the world economic relations system, progress toward the liberalization of trade relations by means of multilateral and bilateral interaction formats.

This section assesses the motivation for the boost of the foreign economic policy of the Republic of Belarus in the context of aggravated geopolitical situation and the growth of protectionist tendencies and identifies obstacles to its implementation.

The trade agreements among major trading countries can open new prospects of development and growth for global economy. The policy changes by a major trading country can alter the global trade and connection patterns. The trade agreement known as Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was between 12 “Pacific-rim” countries signed earlier in 2016 indicates an upcoming and major policy change for global economy (presidential memorandum to withdraw the United States from TPP was signed in January 2017). The agreement would influence the issues related to “economic growth, employment, innovation, productivity, and competitiveness” of every partner and linked economy. This study illustrates how Asia Pacific’s major countries are interlinked with each other, the important sectors and the strength of connections. The level of interconnectedness might have been transformed within regional trade network because of varying global economic patterns and demand trends. The study focuses on the aspects related to agreement and reduction in tariffs that may change the global trading scenarios and appropriate position for region’s prominent and developing economies after implementation of the agreement.

The scope of this work is to explore whether Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would be beneficial to Bangladesh, given Bangladesh's strong ties with India and the west.

Using extended gravity equation and data from Head and Mayer (2021) and the Direction of Trade Statistic (IMF, 2021) for Bangladesh with its applicable partner countries from 1972 till 2019, the authors attempted to examine the potential impact of joining RCEP while keeping its relationship with South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), and other existing economic integration schemes intact.

Using traditional pooled ordinary least squares, two-stage least square and generalized method of moment techniques, it has been revealed that conventional partners in the South led by India are still beneficial to Bangladeshs trading line. Joining RCEP provides ample avenues for trade expansion without replacing the positive effects of SAARC.

Traditional partners from European, American and South Asian trading opportunities are still paying enough dividends to Bangladesh. RCEP is providing a trade-enhancing chance for Bangladesh in the eastern direction. This paper provides a policy suggestion to look east policy of government. A total overhaul of her tax structure through minimizing excessive reliance on import tariff revenue is desired to facilitate her to join RCEP in the future because most of its prospective RCEP partners are import partners.

This is the first and the only study which explores the feasibility of Bangladesh to join the RCEP by using the most recently updated gravity data in a panel framework.

1. Since its inception on November 15, 2020, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as one of the largest economic integration areas in the world.

2. As a borderline country between South Asia and RCEP, Bangladesh is in a fix to take a decision either to join or not to join RCEP if they are invited.

3. This paper used the gravity equation in an extended form by taking Bangladesh with its 197 trading partners’ trade data for 1972–2019.

4. The findings postulate that the existing relationship with SAARC countries is still beneficial to its welfare, and RCEP is also economically helpful in enhancing its trade.

Since its inception on November 15, 2020, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has emerged as one of the largest economic integration areas in the world.

As a borderline country between South Asia and RCEP, Bangladesh is in a fix to take a decision either to join or not to join RCEP if they are invited.

This paper used the gravity equation in an extended form by taking Bangladesh with its 197 trading partners’ trade data for 1972–2019.

The findings postulate that the existing relationship with SAARC countries is still beneficial to its welfare, and RCEP is also economically helpful in enhancing its trade.

Trade uncertainty does influence the firm’s new investment, profitability and supply chain finance. Consequently, it results in decreased consumption and low consumer confidence and eventually disrupts global economic activity. This paper aims to propose a model to uncover the effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on the real economic activity and economy’s health measured in terms of the purchasing manager’s index (PMI).

This study uses the PMI, trade policy uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty index and short-term interest rate. The relation between economic activity and uncertainty was studied using nested regression and vector autoregressive model.

The empirical results show that PMI of China and Japan were more responsive to the TPU of the USA and remained more fluctuating during the year 2018–2019. Importantly, this paper notices that the US’s PMI reached a low historically subject to its own trade policy and tension with China. Overall, TPU has shown more pronounced effects on PMI across China, Japan and the USA, followed by important economic and political events and major trade tariff uncertainty deals.

The empirical outcome holds some practical implications trade uncertainty affects not only the economic health of the economy but also market participants, global investors and international political environment, recent trade barriers, tariff wars and ambiguity raise question about free and fair global trade and competitiveness of the member country of the world trade organization.

The work is a novel that attempts to explain economic activity and supply chain through PMI. Unlike conventional economic indicators, e.g. gross domestic product, producer price index, consumer price index, employment, etc. PMI measures manufacturing industries’ overall status concerning the number of orders, inventory levels, productions, supplier deliveries and employment.

The recent dynamics of trade policy, especially that is associated with the United States of America (USA) and China, has not only triggered policy adjustments in two economies, it has also implied an uncertainty spillover to other economies across the globe. Consequently, the current study attempts to examine the effect of uncertainties in the USA–China trade policies on stock market indexes. In addition, the cointegration evidence between the USA–China trade policy uncertainty index and of the leading Global South fragile quintet (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey) stock market indices is investigated.

Mainly, the FMOLS and DOLS Granger causality analysis with cointegration coefficient estimators were employed for the dataset over the monthly data period of March 2003 and July 2019.

Accordingly, the study found a long-term relationship between the USA–China Trade Policy Uncertainty index and the stock exchange indexes. In addition, a causal relationship was established from the change in the USA–China Trade Policy Uncertainty index to the change in the stock market indexes of almost all of the examined countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India and Turkey). In addition, the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag approach further offers evidence of asymmetric relationship among the examined indicators.

Moreover, this study contributed to the existing literature because it employed the indexes of BIST100, BOVESPA, BSE Sensex 30, IDX Composite and South Africa 40 in a novel approach. Thus, the study posited a useful policy guideline for associated economic uncertainties arising from the trade dispute, such as the case of the world’s two largest trading giants or partners (i.e. the USA and China).

Economic integration is an agreement among countries in a geographical region or unification of economic policies between different states aiming to reduce and ultimately remove tariff and non-tariff barriers on trade. The fruit of globalization is the tremendous rise of economic integration as globalization loosens barriers among the nations through reduction in cross-border duties and eases trade policies. Trumponomics is defined as the economic policies of US President Donald Trump that prefers high import tariff to bring “America First.” There is a debate among the researchers about the choice between free trade and protection or imposition of tariff. Some of them prefer free trade because during the start of the great depression, the world economy experienced a huge shift toward protectionism. Choice between no-tariff and tariff represents a prisoner’s dilemma situation whereby each player’s best response is to employ tariffs. This results in a sub-optimal outcome for all where the total volume of world trade falls, which is a Nash solution. The present chapter deals with theoretical discussions on trade war and throws light on the developing country’s choice between non-protectionism supported by globalization and Trump’s protectionism.

The purpose of the study is to develop a macroeconometric model for evaluation of trade policies and forecasting of trade performance of Pakistan with different regions or group of countries.

These regions or group of countries are Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the rest of the world. A macroeconometric model containing 15 behavioral equations and eight identities.

Cointegration results suggest that there exist long-run relationships among variables of all behavioral equations. Additionally, results of different policy shocks based on unit value of export (export price), unit value of import (import price), exchange rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve suggest that the model is useful for economic planning to sustain growth performance of Pakistan.

In this study, the authors develop for the first time ever a macroeconometric model for the evaluation and forecasting of regional trade policy and performance for Pakistan.

The fight between two nations on each other’s exportable on the basis of tariff is known as tariff war. Although an economic policy, very ­often ­motivated by nationalism and politics, a nation imposes tariff on the ­exports of another nation which, in retaliation, again imposes tariff on the exports of its trading partner. The prime cause of such war is certainly to enhance employment opportunities in the home nation. But politics and nationalism provoke the opposite nation to follow the same policy. Effects of such tariff war, whether beneficial or harmful, are yet to be seen. In this context, we have adopted a general equilibrium model to illustrate the probable effect of the above-stated trade war in a structure consisting both H–O nugget and export sector dualism. The effect of imposition of tariff on multinational corporation (MNC) that has its own origin nation and production activities in other nation as well where it faces the war of tariff is considered. But it gets relief in the form of tax reduction in its origin nation. Under such a scenario, the study has shown the effect of tariff in the presence of full employment in the economy as well as in the presence of unemployment. It is seen that the MNC will continue its production procedure in both nations and enjoy profit, under some conditions. Further, in the presence of unemployment it is seen that if rate of tax on the MNC rises, unemployment may fall and welfare can increase under certain conditions.

Of late, the ongoing trade war between the two most powerful economies of the world – United States and China – has placed both the countries on a horrid front, breaking the world’s most important bilateral relationship of the twenty-first century. Their failure to reach a concrete agreement on mutual benefit on matters related to growing hefty amount of China’s current account surplus of balance of payments (BoP) and endangering United States to create jobs on its side, China’s use of illegal and unfair methods to acquire rights on intellectual property and US technology at an effectively discounted price; and also the concern that China by hook or by crook seeks to weaken the US economy has made matters worse. It is in this context the chapter analyzes the trade tensions between them and the context under which it came to the fore and with what outcomes. The analysis recommends interventions of the global leaders to mitigate the issues for the betterment of the world economy.