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In this study, the authors examine the push and pull effects of extreme weather events on migration among governorates in Egypt.

To estimate the effect of extreme weather events on internal migration, the authors use migration gravity models and data from the 1996 and 2006 Population and Housing Censuses. The authors measure weather extremes by the number of months in the past 36 months with temperatures or precipitation of a governorate below the 5th percentile and above the 95th percentile of the distribution of monthly temperatures or precipitation of the corresponding governorate during the period 1900–2006.

This study’s results suggest that high temperatures in the origin area act as a push factor. High-temperature extremes have a positive effect on out-migration. A 1% increase in the number of months with high-temperature extremes in the original governorate results in a 0.1% increase in the number of out-migrants.

The study suggests that people may respond to weather extremes through migration. However, climate migrants in Egypt may encounter several significant risks that authorities must address.

This study is one of the first attempts to measure the push and pull effect of weather extremes on migration in Egypt.

Extreme high temperatures are a significant feature of global climate change and have become more frequent and intense in recent years. These pose a significant threat to both human health and economic activity, and thus are receiving increasing research attention. Understanding the hazards posed by extreme high temperatures are important for selecting intervention measures targeted at reducing socioeconomic and environmental damage.

In this study, detrended fluctuation analysis is used to identify extreme high-temperature events, based on homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperatures from nine meteorological stations in a major grassland region, Hulunbuir, China, over the past 56 years.

Compared with the commonly used functions, Weibull distribution has been selected to simulate extreme high-temperature scenarios. It has been found that there was an increasing trend of extreme high temperature, and in addition, the probability of its indices increased significantly, with regional differences. The extreme high temperatures in four return periods exhibited an extreme low hazard in the central region of Hulunbuir, and increased from the center to the periphery. With the increased length of the return period, the area of high hazard and extreme high hazard increased. Topography and anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns may be the main factors influencing the occurrence of extreme high temperatures.

These results may contribute to a better insight in the hazard of extreme high temperatures, and facilitate the development of appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with the adverse effects.

The purpose of this study is to explore the extent to which teamwork (developed either during an initial training phase or during a subsequent deployment phase) is influenced by the nature of the team’s environment (extreme vs non-extreme) and the extent to which teamwork is one of the explaining mechanisms for team performance.

Data was collected from 60 teams at 2 time-points: training phase in The Netherlands or Germany and deployment phase (in locations such as Afghanistan and Bosnia-Herzegovina).

This study’s results indicate that when teams consider working in extreme environments, they develop higher levels of teamwork as compared to teams expecting to work in non-extreme environments. These differences remain stable also during the deployment phase, such that teams operating in extreme environments will continue to have higher levels of teamwork as compared to teams operating in non-extreme environments.

With this study, the authors contribute to the teamwork quality research stream by empirically studying how teamwork quality develops in unique military contexts such as extreme environments. Studies in such contexts are relatively rare.

The purpose of this paper is to examine pro-poor urban asset adaptation to climate variability and change. It constructs a conceptual framework that explores the appropriate asset adaptation strategies for extreme poor households as well as the process of supporting these households and groups in accumulating these assets.

Qualitative data are obtained from life histories, key informant interviews (KIIs) and focus-group discussions (FGDs). These data are collected, coded and themed.

This research identifies that households among the urban extreme poor do their best to adapt to perceived climate changes; however, in the absence of savings, and access to credit and insurance, they are forced to adopt adverse coping strategies. Individual adaptation practices yield minimal results and are short lived and even harmful because the urban extreme poor are excluded from formal policies and institutions as they lack formal rights and entitlements. For the poorest, the process of facilitating and maintaining patron–client relationships is a central coping strategy. Social policy approaches are found to be effective in facilitating asset adaptation for the urban extreme poor because they contribute to greater resilience to climate change.

This study analyses the empirical evidence through the lens of a pro-poor asset-adaptation framework. It shows that the asset-transfer approach is an effective in building household-adaptation strategies. Equally important is the capacity to participate in and influence the institutions from which these people have previously been excluded.

This paper examines the impact of extreme rainfall shocks on the performance in test scores of students living near at-risk urban areas in Brazil.

To identify the causal effect, we consider the exogenous variation of rainfall at the municipal level conditioned on the distance from the school to risk areas and the rainfall intensity in the school months.

The results suggest that extreme precipitation shocks, defined as a shock of at least three months of high-intensity rainfall, have an adverse impact on both math and language performance. Through a heterogeneous effects analysis, we find that the impact varies by student gender, with girls being more affected. In addition, among students who study near at-risk areas, those with better previous school performance and higher socioeconomic status are more negatively affected.

Our results suggest that extreme weather events can increase the differences in human capital accumulation between the population living near risk areas and those living more distant from these areas.

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of longitudinal forces on extreme-long heavy-haul trains, providing new insights and methods for their design and operation, thereby enhancing safety, operational efficiency and track system design.

A longitudinal dynamics simulation model of the super long heavy haul train was established and verified by the braking test data of 30,000 t heavy-haul combination train on the long and steep down grade of Daqing Line. The simulation model was used to analyze the influence of factors on the longitudinal force of super long heavy haul train.

Under normal conditions, the formation length of extreme-long heavy-haul combined train has a small effect on the maximum longitudinal coupler force under full service braking and emergency braking on the straight line. The slope difference of the long and steep down grade has a great impact on the maximum longitudinal coupler force of the extreme-long heavy-haul trains. Under the condition that the longitudinal force does not exceed the safety limit of 2,250 kN under full service braking at the speed of 60 km/h the maximum allowable slope difference of long and steep down grade for 40,000 t super long heavy-haul combined trains is 13‰, and that of 100,000 t is only 5‰.

The results will provide important theoretical basis and practical guidance for further improving the transportation efficiency and safety of extreme-long heavy-haul trains.

The purpose of this paper is to show that major reversals of an index (specifically BIST-30 index) can be detected uniquely on the date of reversal by checking the extreme outliers in the rate of change series using daily closing prices.

The extreme outliers are determined by checking if either the rate of change series or the volatility of the rate of change series displays more than two standard deviations on the date of reversal. Furthermore; wavelet analysis is also utilized for this purpose by checking the extreme outlier characteristics of the A1 (approximation level 1) and D3 (detail level 3) wavelet components.

Paper investigates ten major reversals of BIST-30 index during a five year period. It conclusively shows that all these major reversals are characterized by extreme outliers mentioned above. The paper also checks if these major reversals are unique in the sense of being observed only on the date of reversal but not before. The empirical results confirm the uniqueness. The paper also demonstrates empirically the fact that extreme outliers are associated only with major reversals but not minor ones.

The results are important for fund managers for whom the timely identification of the initial phase of a major bullish or bearish trend is crucial. Such timely identification of the major reversals is also important for the hedging applications since a major issue in the practical implementation of the stock index futures as a hedging instrument is the correct timing of derivatives positions.

To the best of the author’ knowledge; this is the first study dealing with the issue of major reversal identification. This is evidently so for the BIST-30 index and the use of extreme outliers for this purpose is also a novelty in the sense that neither the use of rate of change extremity nor the use of wavelet decomposition for this purpose was addressed before in the international literature.

Eradicating extreme poverty remains one of the most significant and challenging sustainable development goals (SDGs) in the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. The latest World Bank statistics from 2018 show that extreme poverty in MENA increased from 2.6% to 5% between 2013 and 2015. MENA ranks third among developing regions for extreme poverty and fell short of halving extreme poverty by 2015 – the target established by the United Nations’ (UN) millennium development goals, the precursor to the SDGs. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of financial inclusion on extreme poverty for a sample of 34 countries over the period 1990–2017.

Using system general method of moments dynamic panel estimation methodology on annual data for 11 MENA countries and 23 emerging markets (EMs) over the period 1990 – 2017, this study begins by estimating the impact of financial inclusion – using measures of access and usage – on the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030, the first goal of the SDGs.

The results of the study indicate that, on one hand, financial access measures have a positive, statistically significant impact on reducing extreme poverty for the full sample and the MENA region. The second part of the study uses a gap analysis against four poverty targets – 0%, 1.5%, 3% and 5% – and shows that no MENA country and few EM countries will be able to close the extreme poverty gap and reach the target of 0% by 2030 by depending solely on improvements in financial access. These targets are based on the two benchmarks set by the World Bank and the UN, with intermediaries to capture error and give a fuller picture of what is possible. However, if improvements in financial inclusion alone can bring every EM and MENA country except Djibouti and Romania to bring the most accessible target of reducing global extreme poverty to no more than 5% by 2030.

While research on poverty reduction in the region tends to focus on financial development and governance, less attention has been paid to the role of financial inclusion. SDG 1 – eliminating poverty in all its forms – explicitly highlights the importance of access to financial services. Indeed, evidence from Argentina, India, Kenya, Malawi, Niger and other countries demonstrates the ways in which financial inclusion can impact poverty (Klapper, El-Zoghbi and Hess, 2016). When people are included in the financial system, they are better able to improve their health, invest in education and business and make choices that benefit their entire families. Financial inclusion advances governments, too: introducing vast segments of the population into the financial system by digitizing social transfers, for example, can cut government costs and reduce leakage, with benefits that ripple across society. Yet, the links between financial inclusion and poverty reduction in MENA are less established. This study aims to analyze the importance of financial inclusion in addressing extreme poverty by 2030, the year UN member states set as a target for achieving the SDGs.

Climatic extreme events are predicted to occur more frequently and intensely and will significantly threat the living of residents in arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, this study aims to assess climatic extremes’ response to the emerging climate change mitigation strategy using a marine cloud brightening (MCB) scheme.

Based on Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2-Earth System model simulations of a MCB scheme, this study used six climatic extreme indices [i.e. the hottest days (TXx), the coolest nights (TNn), the warm spell duration (WSDI), the cold spell duration (CSDI), the consecutive dry days (CDD) and wettest consecutive five days (RX5day)] to analyze spatiotemporal evolution of climate extreme events in the arid Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula Zone with and without MCB implementation.

Compared with a Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario, from 2030 to 2059, implementation of MCB is predicted to decrease the mean annual TXx and TNn indices by 0.4–1.7 and 0.3–2.1°C, respectively, for most of the Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone. It would also shorten the mean annual WSDI index by 118–183 days and the mean annual CSDI index by only 1–3 days, especially in the southern Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone. In terms of extreme precipitation, MCB could also decrease the mean annual CDD index by 5–25 days in the whole Sahara and Sahel belt and increase the mean annual RX5day index by approximately 10 mm in the east part of the Sahel belt during 2030–2059.

The results provide the first insights into the impacts of MCB on extreme climate in the arid Sahara-Sahel-Arabian Peninsula zone.

The paper aims to investigate the possible changes in mean temperature in the Mongolian Plateau associated with the 1.5 and 2°C global warming targets and how snow changes in the Mongolian Plateau when the mean global warming is well below 2°C or limited to 1.5°C.

In total, 30 model simulations of consecutive temperature and precipitation days from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are assessed in comparison with the 111 meteorological monitoring stations from 1961–2005. Multi-model ensemble and model relative error were used to evaluate the performance of CMIP5 models. Slope and the Mann–Kendall test were used to analyze the magnitude of the trends and evaluate the significance of trends of snow depth (SD) from 1981 to 2014 in the Mongolian Plateau.

Some models perform well, even better than the majority (80%) of the models over the Mongolian Plateau, particularly HadGEM2-CC, CMCC-CM, BNU-ESM and GFDL-ESM2M, which simulate best in consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) and warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. Emphasis zones of WSDI on SD were deeply analysed in the 1.5 and 2 °C global warming period above pre-industrial conditions, because it alone has a significant negative relation with SD among the four indices. It is warmer than before in the Mongolian Plateau, particularly in the southern part of the Mongolian Plateau, indicating less SD.

Providing climate extremes and SD data sets with different spatial-temporal scales over the Mongolian Plateau. Zoning SD potential risk areas and proposing adaptations to promote regional sustainable development.